October 08—12, 2018 With a holiday on Monday—Columbus Day—there’ll be light activity but probably a minor recovery from late last week’s sell-off to start the week, at any rate. From there, an IMF/World Bank Group Fall meeting in Bali, Indonesia sounds exotic but probably not too large an influence on US Trade, the rest of the week, after the initial IMF World Economic Outlook, due for release Monday overnight, which will already be Tuesday, in Indonesia, sadly, parts of the country recovering from an earthquake & tsunami that didn’t hit Bali, as far as I know. Interestingly enough, BlackRock’s Laurence Fink, jPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley’s James Gorman, and Socgen’s chairman, all scheduled to speak at the International Institute of Finance meeting, Friday, in Bali. However, JPMorgan is scheduled to release its Q3 Earnings, on Friday, so one has to presume he’s teleconferencing for one of the events.

Speaking of Friday’s Earnings, Citi, First Republic, PNC Financial and Wells Fargo are also Friday earnings reporters, so whatever happens Monday through Thursday could be undone by Friday’s release schedule. Except for Friday, last week, when 10 & 30-year rates became strongly favorable for bank net interest margins, giving the financials a big lift, the group has been acting like dogs that failed to qualify for any races as the West Palm Beach Dog Track, which a constitutional amendment is seeking to close, leaving only the card rooms already there. Other than the Financials, Friday, Delta Airlines & Walgreen Boots Alliance are the next 2 biggest reports of the week, both of those on Thursday. However, Fastenal Wednesday should be a fair read on industrial America, while Helen of Troy should provide insight holiday sales in the personal care & home small appliance space. WBA, on the other hand, seems all over the place, flailing around to set a new direction. There was its ill-fated partnership with Theranos, a new partnership with grocer, Kroger, the ink on which is just drying, a deal to sell its private label brand beauty products to Chinese consumers, on Alibaba’s marketplace, an early this past summer investment in a Chinese pharmacy chain, GuoDa, even as it’s reducing its stake in Guanghzou Pharmaceuticals Corp, announced still earlier, this past summer. WBA is like a Giacomo Casanova who can’t decide if he wants a blond, redhead, brunette, or other, making CVS Caremark looking like a much more visionary and stable choice, as its deal with Aetna nears closing.

Aside from the IiF, IMF/World Bank, the Economic Calendar also promises Fed speakers are mostly stateside, except for the New York Federal Reserve President/CEO John Williams, who’ll be speaking in Bali, late Wednesday, 2x. Big data in the US includes PPI Wed., CPI Thurs., and a crap hole of US Treasury auctions, starting with 4-week, 3-, & 6-month bills, plus 52-week Bills, Tuesday—a heavier than usual day because of Monday’s Columbus Day holiday. . Wednesday Treasury is offering 3-year Notes, and 10-year Notes, before Thursday’s 30-year Bonds. Meanwhile, sometime this week, the Social Security Administration should be announcing the inflation increase on the retirement benefits it administers, as well as those that flow to military veterans.

As should be expected, given Monday’s Federal holiday, Events don’t really pick up until Tuesday. When Cowen & Co hosts its 21^st Annual Therapeutics Conference, though most of the I-banks are hosting their events overseas. Wednesday, Raymond James hosts North American Energy Forum, and CIBC Liquid Alts, while the 12^th Annual Pain & Migraine Therapeutics could be a showcase for the 3, recently approved Migraine treatments, after decades of almost no breakthroughs. Meanwhile Honeywell soon to spin off Resideo Technologies will host its Investor Day, Wednesday, also, even as a challenge to Genetech’s Rituxan will be discussed at an FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (AdCom) meeting. The biologic drug application was submitted by Celltrion, which has a marketing & sales agreement with TEVA, which could badly use some good news, itself.

Thursday, Cowen hosts its 7^th MedTools Unlocked Conference, even as the 13^th Annual Obesity—Diabetes Summit gets underway, in Biloxi MS, cause meeting at casinos known for "All-you-can-Eat" $10 buffets is the best setting for avoiding obesity & diabetes. ACC for Cardiology Heart Valve Summit also starts Thursday, even as Automotive News Retail Forum meets in Chicago, Powersports Dealer AIMExpo, the US Powerboat Show, and SnowMobile USA also meet. Boy! Did the International Academic Conference on ‘Meaningful Play’ realize it picked the same day to start its conference as the pricey water & snow sports equipment associations? A coincidence, no doubt. And finally, the potentially biggest event of the week starts Friday—the High Point Furniture Market, in High Point NC, which presumably escaped flooding or already recovered from any deluge Florence dumped on the Carolinas.

There are many who seem to think the Financials fly on the day they report their earnings but, in fact, the group reporting Friday rarely do. They’re more likely to join a larger party the week after this one—when Morgan Stanley reports, Goldman Sachs an outlier which seems to decline no matter by how much it beats the analysts’ estimate, since it rarely beats in a way that the analysts approve wholeheartedly.

The bulls could win by holding losses, this week, to last week’s lows, establishing a bottom upon which the bulls could build a recovery, later in the month. The problem I foresee is the mid-term elections ahead. Schumer and the Democrats making the mid-terms a referendum on the Trump presidency, and the Kavanaugh confirmation. The liberals may be loathe to admit it but the same people who put Trump in the White House are still rabid fans. What the mid-terms will be about, if anything, is who is more motivated to go to the polls or, as in my case, mail in the ballot that already arrived for the November election. And once again, I have to confess, I don’t like either candidate for the US Senate or the Governor of my state of residence (Florida). But given all the problems Florida has voting, at all, I’m never sure if my vote has been counted, anyway. And don’t for a minute believe the polls that have a democrat leading in both of those races. Florida is one of the reddest states in the country (ex- the southern tip, where I live), and touts in the press claiming Democrats are ahead is just a way to get Republican votes out, perhaps persuade Dems to stay home. It’s going to be a long month until the polls close.

ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 10/07
China Golden Week wraps up
Brazilian Presidential Elections (likely run-off ahead)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        China Sept FX Reserves & Foreign Direct Investment
        Caixin China Sept Services & Composite PMi
        Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

MONDAY, 10/08
US Bond Market, only, Closed for Columbus Day; Equities Trade Regular Hours
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30PM et)
China Political Consultative Conference (estimated this week, Beijing)
Holidays, also, in Canada & Japan
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
          UK BRC Sept Like-for-Like Sales
          Japan Aug Current Account Balance, Trade Balance, Eco Watchers Outlook
          German Aug Industrial Production & Import Price Index, Trade Balance+Current Account
          IMF World Economic Outlook Report
          IMF/World Bank Group Joint fall meeting ( Bali, Indonesia 9^th local time—14^th)

TUESDAY, 10/09
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Canada Sept Housing Starts
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Fall Economic Conference (NY)
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks @ Economic Club of NY (NY)
Fed’s Evans opens 2018 ‘Opportunity Finance Network Conference" (Chicago 10am)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, $42B 6-month Bills, $26B 52-wk Bills, & $40B 4-wk Bills
Fed’s Harker on ‘The Importance of Higher Education to the US Economy’ @ Global Interdependence Center event on "The Roles of Higher Education in Competitiveness & Global Productivity’ (Philadelphia)
Central Bank of Argentina MPC Rate Decision
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Fed’s Williams speaks (9:15pm & 10:35pm et) @ NY Fed/Bank Indonesia Central Banking Forum w/Q&A (Indonesia, co-located w/IMF/World Bk Grp Fall Meeting)
        Japan Aug Machine Orders & Sept Machine Tool Orders
        China Sept Aggregate Financing, New Yuan Loans, Money Supply
        UK Aug/3-month NIESR GDP, Aug Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Index of Services
        BoE Chief Economist Haldane speaks @ Advisory, Conciliation & Arbitration Service Future of World Conference (London)

WEDNESDAY, 10/10
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US Sept PPI—final demand (8:30am et)
Canada Aug Building Permits
US Wholesale Inventories & Sales
US Treasury Auctions $36B 3-year Notes (11:30am et)
Fed’s Evans on US Eco Outlook @ Flint & Genesee Chamber of Commerce w/Q&A (12:15pm Flint MI)
US Treasury Auctions $23B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed’s Bostic discusses Eco Outlook @ Nat’l Ass’n of Corporate Directors w/Q&A (6pm et Atlanta Ga)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        UK RICS Sept House Price Balance
        Japan Sept Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, PPI, Bank Lending, Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
        ECB Releases Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
        BoE Survey on Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities
        BoE’s Vlieghe on ‘Global & domestic challenges for UK monetary Policy’ @ Nat’l Bank of Belgium (Brussels)
        G20 FinMins & Central Bank Governors meet @ IMF/World Bank Grp Fall Meeting (Bali Indonesia)

THURSDAY, 10/11
US Sept CPI (8:30am et)
Sept US Chain Store Sales (the handful that still report)
US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Aug New Housing Price Index
Social Security Inflation Index Changes a/o 01/01/2019 should be announced (estimated date)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et w/e 10/05)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (11am et delayed by Monday holiday)
WASDE Report
US Treasury Auctions $15B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        China Sept Trade Balance (approx. date), Foreign Direct Investment
        ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
        RBA (Aussie) Financial Stability Review, Aug Home Loans, Investment Lending
        IEA Monthly Report
        IIF: Institute of International Finance Annual @ IMF/World Bank Grp Mtg

FRIDAY, 10/12
US Sept Import/Export Prices
Canada Teranet/National Bank Sept House Price Index
Fed’s Evans participates in discussion @ ENGAGE College Investment Conference @ U.M. wQ&A (9:30am Ann Arbor MI)
Russia Aug Trade Balance (change in oil shipments discernible?)
Fed’s Bostic ‘chats’ on recruitment, economics & public policy profession @ Network of schools of Public Policy, Affairs & Administration Conference w/Q&A (12:30pm et Atlanta GA)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Traders4Acause 5^th Annual Charity Conference & Golf Tournament (Las Vegas thru 14^th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et;
        China Sept Trade Balance (approx date)

SATURDAY, 10/13
IMF/World Bank Grp meeting continues (Bali Indonesia thru 14^th)

               WEEKS AHEAD: 10/17 FOMC Releases 09/25—26 Meeting Minutes
                                                   BoE Releases Record of 10/03 Financial Policy Cmte Mtg
                                          10/24 BoC (Canada) MPC Meets
                                                   Riksbank (Swedes) MPC Meets
                                          10/25 ECB MPC Meets
                                                   Norges (Norway) Bank MPC Meets
                                          10/31 BoJ MPC Meets
                                               US FOMC does NOT meet in October

EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre-market from after hours release times. While we cover, only, major money center banks, the biggest regionals, and biggest foreign banks offering ADRs in the US, we make an exception for the first couple of weeks of Earnings Season, because banks to dominate, as they will this week, Friday, especially. Any company that did not confirm its planned release date by noon, 10/04, isn’t included here.) :

MONDAY, 10/08: US Columbus Day Holiday

TUESDAY, 10/09: AZZ, HELE, IDT

WEDNESDAY, 10/10: FAST, RELL

THURSDAY, 10/11: CBSH, DAL, EXFO, VOXX, WBA

FRIDAY, 10/12: C, FRC, JPM, PNC, WFC

EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 10/07
ACG Am. College of Gastroenterology Annual Scientific Meeting (Philadelphia PA thru 10^th)
31^st ECNP Congress of Neuropsychopharmacology (Barcelona Spain thru 9^th)
5^th Annual Strategas Investment Forum (Rosewood Bermuda)
MyoPain 10^th Congress on Myofascial Pain & Fibromyalgia Syndrome (Bangalore India thru 8^th)
New Yorker Festival (NY)
ComicCon (New York)
Paris Auto Show (Paris Fr thru 14^th )

STARTING SUNDAY, 10/07
AGA (Natural Gas Utilities) State of Affairs Fall Cmte Mtg (Coeur d’Alene ID thru 10th)
CSA: Cloud Security Alliance Summit @ ISC Security Congress (New Orleans LA thru 10^th)
NACS (Convenience stores) Conference/Expo (Las Vegas thru 10^th)
NAHC: Homecare & Hospice Expo (Grapevine TX thru 9^th)
ACLI Life Insurance (Washington DC thru 9^th)
Training Magazine’s Online Learning (Chicago thru 10^th)
TMS Titanium USA (Las Vegas NV thru 10^th)
Wharton School Seminars for Business Journalists (Philadelphia thru 10th)
FENS Brain Conference (Copenhagen Denmark thru 10^th)
CHC Cerner (CERN) Physician Community Fall (Kansas City MO thru 8^th)
New Age Beverages (NBEV) unveils cannabis-infused drinks @ NACS Expo (Las Vegas)

MONDAY, 10/08
Treasury Markets/Bonds Closed for Columbus Day
Equities trade full day
BoB Best of Breed Conference (Philadelphia thru 9^th)
WASET Int’l Conference Biomedical Tech & Biomechanics (NY thru 9^th)
G2E Global Gaming Expo (Las Vegas thru 11^th)
ISC Security Congress (New Orleans LA thru 10^th)
Vanity Fair New Establishment Summit (Los Angeles CA thru 10^th)
FOLIO Show Conference & Expo (NY thru 10^th)
ACHA Am. Healthcare Ass’n Summit (D.C. thru 9^th)
AUSA (military) Annual Meeting/Expo (D.C. thru 10th)
25^th Int’l Sytmposium on Hepatitus C & Related Viruses (Dublin Ireland thru 11th)
MENA Mining Show (Dubai thru 10th)
IBM (IBM) Systems Technical University (Hollywood FL thru 12^th)
JAX (ORCL) 2018 Java+ (London thru 11^th)

FRIDAY, 10/12
ENGAGE U of MI Student Stock Pitch Competition (U of Michigan)
JPMorgan Japan FinTech Forum (London)
Citi Big Data & Analytics Seminar (London)
AcelRx Pharmaceuticals (ACRX) FDA considers its NDA 209128 for moderate to severe acute pain severe enough to require an opioid analgesic for which alternate treatments are inadequate
Activision’s (ATVI) "Call of Duty: Black Ops 4" released worldwide
Ford (F) Rouge Factory Tour wraps RIA Robot Safety event
MOVIES OPENING: "Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween," with Jack Black, Wendy McLendon-Covey, Madison Iseman, in another of R.L.Stine's books (SCHL) turned into a movie via Columbia Pictures (SNE). "First Man," with Ryan Gosling, Claire Foy, the story of Astronaut Neil Armstong's space mission on Ju;y 20, 1969. during which he was the first man to walk on the moon--'one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind," from Amblin Entertainment & DreamWorks, distributed by Universal Pictures (CMCSA) and was directed by gosling's "La La Land" director Damien Chazelle. "Beautiful Boy," starring Steve Carell, Timothee Chalamet, Maura Tierney, based on 2 best selling memoirs (father & son, David & Nic Sheff), about addiction & recovery, produced & distributed by Amazon Studios (AMZN), with Big Indie Pictures. "Bad Times at the El Royale," with Chris Hemsworth, Dakota Johnson, Jon Hamm, Jeff Bridges, nefarious goings on at a Lake Tahoe hotel, vis 20th Century Fox (FOXA). "The Oath," with Billy Magnussen, Tiffany Haddish, John Cho, written & directed by Ike Barinholtz, distributed by Roadside Attractions (LGF.A). 'Venom' and 'A Star is Born" opened big and will try to hold on in the face of the openings of both "Goosebumps 2" & "First Man.'

SATURDAY, 10/13
High Point Furniture Market (High Point NC thru 17^th)
AABB: Am. Ass’n of Blood Banks+Cellular Therapy & CTTXPO (Boston thru 16^th)    EARLIER 2018 OUTLOOKS Here

© Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.