What You missed LAST Week
AVOIDING A SELLING PANIC WILL BE GIFT
May 13—17, 2019 How do you know Earnings season is all but over, for most traders? The Events Calendar kicks into a higher gear, as it did last week. And how do you know that, in addition to Earnings season being about over, a long summer break is fast approaching? Other than gasoline/crude prices rising, it’s a schedule like this week’s, where Tuesday is the best demonstration of how insanely packed the I-bank conference schedule has become! And ironically, after last week’s volatility, and last minute saves before the markets closed, especially on Friday, even those content to listen into webcast presentations from the comfort of their own desks, really don’t want to be pulled away from their quote and chart screens, to examine the charts accompanying presentations from even the most august events, like JPMorgan’s 47th Annual TMC Conference.
JPMorgan’s 47th Annual TMC Conference includes these confirmed presenters, and probably more: CDW, CAMP, MDC, CTL, ST, IBM, FFIV, MSFT, WEX, ADTN, QRVO, PROS, (BNFT), VIA.B, IPG, CRTO, LAMR, ALTR, MDSO, SBAC, UNIT, EVER, W, TRUE, I, EVOP, TWLO, AEIS, OUT, WK, EGHT, CREE, AVLR, DLB, AMCX, NEWR, LOGM, Tenable, WWE (Gargano fireside chat), AAXN, GDDY, SWCH, GDDY, BR, DISCK, (CEO David Zaslav keynote), FTNT, CONE, BKNG, TTMI, FIVN, BAND, JBL, KN, CHTR, CCOI, PAYC, MXL, GDOT, SEDG, LRCX, FLT, PS, FTCH, NYT, GLW, MDSO, CY, VZ, WIFI, T. American Tower’s (AMT) IR website would NOT load presentations or press releases. AMD doesn’t show this event on its IR site, as of 05/12, perhaps because it just held an analyst conference, on May 1st, to celebrate 50 years in business. The odd thing about the presenters, is how many of them waited until after the market close on the 10th, to confirm their appearance at JPM, and in one case, not until Sunday, 05/12. Meanwhile, others announced participation so many months ago, their press release hit too many months ago to pop up in a current search. We checked a few companies, individually, like Alphabet (GOOG) but did not find an announcement regarding participation in this, or any other, I-bank conference since Morgan Stanley’s Feb conference. Then, again, many of JPM’s Media presenters will pull double duty at the MoffettNathanson Media Conference,
The (now) Annual Center for Inflation Conference ---Inflation Drivers & Dynamics--starts at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, on the 15th, and runs through 17th. As recently as Wednesday, there was no agenda to be found, and even the e-mail addresses offered on the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research website offered non-existent mailboxes. That stinks, and it’s the only Fed Bank Conference at which we’ve encountered that problem researching. Usually, we can pull up the entire agenda and sort by speakers. Cleveland does it differently—ineptly and offensively, as if it doesn’t realize our tax dollars are paying for that bank and its conference.
May 15—17, 2019.
Fed bank speakers will be heard, even if not from the Cleveland Fed. Sunday, San Francisco Fed Pres Daly delivered the Syracuse University commencement address. Monday, it’s a twofer, with Rosengren & Vice Chairman for supervision, Clarida speaking at a New England FedListens event. Much later, in the wee hours of Tuesday, NY Fed Pres. Williams is a panelist on Past-Lessons Learned from an Evolving International Monetary System," at a joint Swiss National Bank and IMF High-Level Conference @Past, Present & Future of the International Monetary System, in Zurich, a quarter after 3am, eastern time. Tuesday, Fed Pres George speaks at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Wednesday, Fed Pres Barkin takes part in a discussion at the New York Association for Business Economics, even as Vice Chair Clarida testifies at the Senate Banking Cmte, at 9:30am et. He’s in charge of bank supervision, so square that with the committee he’s before, and you get the gist. Thursday, Fed Gov Brainard talks about the economic outlook and monetary policy outlook at the National Tax Association 49th Symposium in D.C. Friday, NY Fed Pres Williams is speaking again, at the Community League of the Heights, even as Clarida speaks again, at another FedListens, this time on Education, Employment & Monetary Policy in the 3rd District, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Then Williams speaks, again, at Equitable Growth Meeting in Chinatown, at 2pm. Even Saturday offers up a Fed speaker, Dallas Fed’s Kaplan who’s delivering the keynote at SABEW, a society for Business Editors & Writers, holding their annual meeting.
Of course, as interesting as all that may be, it’s probable data from China will be more influential, if the FedHeads haven’t changed their tunes. Tuesday, especially, Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Property Investment will provide clues to how badly US tariffs are hurting China’s economy. Of course, we could say the same for US data, including Aoril Retail Sales, and Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, along with EIA Crude data. NAHB’s May Housing Market Index is out Wednesday. Though weather has wreaked havoc on some big states, like Texas, lower mortgage rates should have continued to boost buyer traffic at builders’ new communities. April Housing Starts & Building Permits will be backward looking, Thursday, compared to the builders’ own sentiment, Wednesday.
The Earnings Calendar has some potential blow-ups in store. Ralph Lauren Polo reports Tuesday, along with Agilent, Amdocs, Tencent Holdings, and pot company Tilray. Wednesday, reports are expected from Alibaba, The Children’s Place, Cisco Systems, FarFetch, Flowers Industries, Jack in the Box, Macy’s, and NetEase. Thursday promises Applied Materials, Baidu, Nice Syste3ms, nVidia, Pnterest (its first report as a public company), and Walmart. Friday, there’s Deere. Of them all, I fear most the report from Macy*s which had better be ringing the register online since it’s not doing so in stores. In fact, I’ve never seen fewer Macy*s shopping bags in the mall than I have the last 5 times I’ve paid a visit. Walmart is still as filthy as ever, around here, which makes me wonder where the analysts have been that has so impressed them with improvements. And worse, it’s so busy pushing its own "house" versions of brand name products, it barely has any brand name products on its shelves.
Which brings us to the Events Calendar, where Monday and Tuesday are insanely packed with I-bank events. JPMorgan’s TMC will be the headliner starting Tuesday, but MoffettNathanson’s Media & Communications Conference will double down on many of JPM’s presenters. There should be strong interest in JPM’s Homebulding & Building Products Conference, also starting Tuesday, with Wells Fargo’s Tuesday Gaming, Hospitality & Leisure Conference bolstering the comments made at Instinet’s nearly identical conference, which starts Monday. Normally, China Conferences are prevalent during the US Memorial Day week but, this week, Credit Suisse hosts its Annual China Conference in Shenzhen, starting Wednesday, which is when Macquarie opens Greater China, also in Shenzhen, even as HSBC starts its 6th Annual China Conference, also in Shenzhen. Does that strike anyone else a bit odd?
If you want to know what’s really going on this week, you can consult either the Events Calendar, or isolate the Earnings Calendar to the two handfuls of tickers emboldened there. Unless all the Fed speakers are going to sing a new tune, there won’t be much to hear from them, this week. But the handful of earnings reporters we’ve highlighted, and the far too busy Events Calendar hold the key, beyond the trade war—which it’s time to call the tiff with China. And so it’s said, there’s little reason to jump in and buy shares, here, unless you’re convinced the US-China Trade Agreement is going to be hammered out, right away. I don’t think that’s about to happen. Rather, it’s more likely the Chinese will answer Trump’s raised tariffs with punitive measures of their own. Trump, who’s culturally ignorant, doesn’t realize that pushing China against the wall will get him the opposite of what he seeks. And Trump will push because he enjoys bullying people—women especially but men, too.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 05/12
Mother’s Day
S.F. Fed Pres. Daly delivers commencement address @ Syracuse Univ (Syracuse NY)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Aussie Mar Home Loans & Investment Lending
German April Wholesale Price Index
MONDAY, 05/13
Fed’s Rosengren (9:05am et) & Fed Gov Clarida (9:10am et) address "FedListens: New England Perspectives on Fed Policymaking" Conference Both close the event, too (Boston)
US Treasury Auctions $39B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Eurozone, French, German, Italian, Spanish Apr WPI, CPI, HICP
NY Fed CEO Williams panelist on "Past-Lessons Learned from an Evolving Int’l Monetary System" @SNB—IMF High-Level Conference @"Past, Present & Future of the Int’l Monetary System: Conference (3:15am et Zurich Suisse)
UK April Jobless Claims/Claimant Count/Change/Wages, ILO Unemployment Rate
German May ZEW Survey
BoE Exec Dir Rule keynotes Ass’n for British Insurers: Prudential Regulation Seminar
TUESDAY, 05/14
NFIB May Small Business Optimism Index
Canada Teranet/Nat’l Bank April Home Price Index
US April Import/Export Prices (8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Fed’s George speaks @Economic Club of MN (12:45pm et Minneapolis MN)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
China Apr Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Property Investment, Surveyed Jobless Rate
IEA Monthly Energy Report
Eurozone Q1 GDP, Unemployment Rate/Change
ECB’s Lane speaks on "The Euro at 20" (Taillinn, Estonia)
BoE COO Place speaks @Women of The Square Mile 2019 (London)
WEDNESDAY, 05/15
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et—rates have fallen)
Canada April CPI & Existing Home Sales
Fed’s Barkin discussant @NY Ass’n for Business Economics
US April (adv) Retail Sales
NY Fed Empire State May Manufacturing Survey
US April Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et)
FINRA Annual Conference (D.C. thru 17th)
Fed V Chair for Supervision & Regulation, R. Clarida, testifies @Senate Banking Cmte 09:30am
Atlanta Fed May Business Inflation Expectations (10am et)
US March Business Inventories
NAHB May Housing Market Index (Rates are down, weather has been a horror)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et/ w/e 05/10)
US March TICS (4pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Japan Apr Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, PPI, Mar Loans & Discounts
RBNZ (New Zealand) Deadline to Submit Bank Capital Plans
Aussie May Consumer Inflation Expectations, Apr Unemployment Rate/Change/ Participation/Full-/Part-time
China April New Home Prices
ECB’s Coeure speaks @21st Geneva Conference on the World Economy "The Future of Banking, from Int’l Center for Monetary & Banking Studies (Geneva)
EU FinMins Meet (Brussels)
THURSDAY, 05/16
US April Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et) + Benchmark Revisions
US weekly Jobless Claims
Center for Inflation Conference on Inflation Drivers & Dynamics (Cleveland FRB, OH thru 17th)
Philly Fed May Business Outlook Survey
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 05/10)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et, values to be determined 05/15)
Fed Gov Brainard on Eco & Monetary Policy Outlook @Nat’l Tax Ass’n 49th Symposium (D.C. 12:15pm et)
BoC (Canada) Publishes Financial System Review + Press Conference w/Poloz & Wilkins
Bk of Mexico MPC Rate Decision
Fed Reserve weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Hong Kong Q1 GDP
EU 25 Apr New Car Registrations
FRIDAY, 05/17
US Q1 (Adv) Qtrly Services Report (10am et)
U.M. Prelim May Consumer Sentiment
US Q1 eCommerce Retail Sales
Fed’s Williams speaks @Community League of the Heights (NY 11:15am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed V Chair Clarida "The Federal Reserve’s Review of its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, & Communication Practices @Fed Listens: Education, Employment, & Monetary Policy in the 3rd District, FRB of Philadelphia (1:40pm et)
Fed’s Williams speaks @"Equitable Growth Meeting in Chinatown" (NY 2pm et)
SATURDAY, 05/18
Conversation w/Dallas Fed’s Kaplan @ SABEW Annual Meeting (Phoenix AZ @11:05am ct)
Australian Elections
WEEKS AHEAD: 05/22 FOMC Minutes of 04/30—05/01 MPC Meeting
05/27 US Markets Closed for Memorial Day Holiday
06/06 ECB MPC Meets
06/18—19 FOMC Meets
06/19 FOMC Statement + Updated SEP (2pm et)
Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
06/20 BoE MPC Meets
BoJ MPC Meets
for the FULL international Central Bank Calendar, see the lower portion of this page
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre-Market from After Market reports. We cover only the major money center banks and largest regionals. Multiple "???" after a ticker means we saw it listed as a reporter in multiple places but couldn’t confirm the date—many times, of late, because we refuse to permit cookies at every site we visit—and it shouldn’t be required to visit IR sites, at all. If a company didn’t confirm by noon, Thursday, May 9th, it isn’t included. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless it’s integral to the ticker. On Tuesday, The Container Store (TCS) qualifies for sorting with "T" since it’s part of its ticker. In most cases, it isn’t, like The Children’s Place, Wednesday. Emboldened stocks are not meant as recommendations, or even stocks we’re personally interested in—they’re simply those results to which we think the market and/or media will pay most attention—deserved or not. Often, one sector is so dominant, it should be highlighted, to make that point in a quick glance. During many weeks, we check IR sites for every report listed but there weren’t enough hours in a day to pull that off for every listing, this week, given we were sitting in an hospital emergency room on the day we’d normally do that, forcing us to rely on 3rd parties for those tickers we didn’t get to.)