What You missed LAST Week:
BANK EARNINGS WILL DWARF IMF/WORLD BANK GROUP JOINT MEETING
October 12—16, 2020 International Institute of Finance (IIF) Membership Meeting is subtitled : Financing a Sustainable Recovery: Crisis Recovery and Drivers of Future Growth. It runs through the 16th, overlapping with the IMF & World Bank Group fall & Joint Meetings, the 12th—18th. (Nevermind Jerome Powell is first speaking on the 19th. the program is what it is.) IIF is the rare International event that uses 3 time zones to list session times, making it easy for everyone who wants to tune in. BoJ’s Kuroda is up first, at 7am et, in the Policymaker Series that leads off the entire event, elevating a regulator whose attempts at boosting inflation has failed for decades, not years. . ECB’s de Guindos appears at 11am, the rest FinMins and university professors/former gov’t officials, like Glen Hubbard and Jared Bernstein who some bet will be a repeat in a Biden administration. In frontier markets, central bankers appear from all over the 3rd world, think Kenya, Pakistan, Costa Rica, and more. Invesco S&P Global, Fitch Ratings, and Fidelity are just some Portfolio Managers (PM)s weighing in on a "Brighter Future for EM." Make no mistake, the pdf schedule is hard to read because it’s so dense, with most sessions consisting of panels of 4 or 5 plus a moderator, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a single bank or investment management company not on the program. Then, there are the non-financial corporates like Amazon’s aws, Google, and Microsoft., plus any number of press members selected for panels, from FT, NYTimes, WSJ, BBG, plus the obligatory Central Banker/Regulators, like the Fed’s Richard Clarida, on the 14th, at 9am. Most sessions are "In-Conversation," 1-on-1’s rather than deep panels but, for the majority of other sessions, the titles do describe who’s participating, making it easier to take meaningful deeper dives. IFF Pres/CEO Tim Adams will be the busiest of all people this week., given how many sessions he’s slated to moderate.
Most of the IMF/World Bank Group sessions are panels, also with 4—6 members and a moderator. Recall Christine Lagarde headed up the IMF prior to being appointed as president of the European Central Bank https://meetings.imf.org/en/2020/Annual/Schedule Both the IMF & World Bank conduct individual, fall meetings prior to the joint meeting. World Bank Group President is David Malpass, a one-time and long-time economist at the late Bear Stearns. The IIF—International Institute of Finance full schedule is here: https://www.iif.com/Portals/0/Files/Event Files/2020_IIF_AMM_agenda.pdf?=2020-10-10-213137 BlackRock’s Laurence Fink will take part in "Post-COVID-19 Recovery & Resilience," at 1pm on the 13th, shortly after the G-24 Secretariat holds its press briefing. Other financial executives are particularly common on the 16th, under "View from the C-Suite." Corporates from outside banking are not significantly represented at the joint meeting but there is a session or two with Facebook, Google, Mapbox, Veraset, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, a combo that puzzles. (Melinda is a panelist later, while Google CEO Sundar Pichai speaks on the 16th, when a few more tech execs appear.) Central bankers from around the world, including from tiny 3rd-world countries are more common on the program, than the big techs. IMF Managing Director Kristialina Georgieva’s Plenary isn’t until the 15th, at 5:30am, of all times. She & Malpass will share the stage at that hour.
So given the G20 & G24 also meet during the IMF/World Bank joint meeting that overlaps with IIF, you’d think that central bankers and their banks would have avoided scheduling any conferences/events during the Joint Meeting but, it appears, that’s wrong. Just take a quick look at the Economic Calendar to see how wrong that thought is. Even despite a Monday bank/Treasury holiday, when stocks will trade regular hours, the schedule is packed, with major banks reporting earnings, and beyond that, not least because of the US Senate’s hearings for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. And I feel compelled to say something about that appointment, if for now other reason than a cousin of mine, a lawyer, died Saturday, and he and every other lawyer in the US has always viewed appointment to the Supreme Court as a position earned after a long, distinguished law career. Barrett has spent much of her legal career as a professor at Notre Dame Law—not litigating. And she spent more time on the bench in Illinois than she did representing clients or prosecuting defendants. In sum, except for her short, finite stint as the late justice Antonin Scalia’s clerk, she didn’t have much of a legal career in any court room. That must be causing many to fume.
Note Tuesday’s CPI & Wednesday’s PPI, without overlooking Vice Chairman Clarida’s US Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy" @IIF Tuesday, followed by Fed Vi. Chair Quarles’ "Financial Regulation" to be delivered to Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, mid-afternoon. Then, again, if naughty former NSA Chief’s ingtrique, I would nogt be surprised if General H.R. McMaster includes at his virtual speech at the Economic Club in NY, suggests a vote against Trump is in order. Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims & continuing claims will be a highlight but so could UK P/M. Boris Johnson’s Thursday deadline for Brexit talks. Equally frustrating is the FDIC’s 10th Annual Consumer Research virtual Symposium, for which there was no agenda made available, as of the weekend prior.
But let’s jump ahead to the Earnings Calendar but that’s sure to be highlight for good or bad. Tuesday, reports are expected from BlackRock, Citi, Delta Airlines, Johnson & Johnson, & JPMorgan. The CEO’s of BLK, C & JPM will deliver "View from C-Suite" sessions at this week’s big conferences, as detailed below. Wednesday, we’ll hear from Bk of America, Goldman Sachs, PNC Financial, US Bank, United Airlines, UnitedHealth, and Wells Fargo. Both Wells Fargo and Citi are in the dog house with their primary regulators, for misbehavior still being carried over from the 2008—09 mortgage crisis. Last week’s $400m fine against Citi probably explains why Michael Corbat said he’d leave early next year, an announcement that came as a surprise, when it was recently made known, a couple of weeks ago. Thursday, Earnings Reports are not as populated as the two prior days but still promises Intuitive Surgical, Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semiconductor, Truist & Walgreens Boost Alliance. If Truist doesn’t ring a bell you’re not alone. It is the new name chosen for the merged SunTrust Financial & BB&T, 2 large southern banks that merged this year, and are wiggling themselves into the new name. Call BB&T and they’ll answer BB&T , a Truist Bank. Ditto for SunTrust. I’ll confess, I’ll never get used to the new name, and think it stinks but, with so much other stuff stinking this year, it’s not something I can get as riled up about, as the possibility of a 2nd term for Trump, the chief crazy in white House. Friday’s reports will come from Ally Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, Kansas City Southern (railroad), State Street, and VF Corp.
Which brings us to the Event Calendar, as fluid as any calendar could possibly be. There were events canceled, that weeks later were suddenly offered on-demand, via pre-recorded sessions—sometimes from last year or earlier—cobbled together to form an "event." Three-day mass analyst meetings have been converted into 2-hour sessions. And without need of hotels or convention centers, events can appear online with only hours notice. So why bother, you might ask? That’s the easy part: they bother because many professions and licenses require ongoing continuing education credits, credits that can only be earned via attendance at a recognized "conference" or scientific session. So, whether it’s as useful as it’s supposed to be, or merely the bare minimum to qualify, virtual events are here to stay, this year, and for the foreseeable future.
And then, if the truth be known, beyond all the events and speakers mentioned above, there’s Amazon Prime, Tuesday & Wednesday, and the many competitors from Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and others, seeking to pry your money from your pocket. And much as you and I may believe we can resist, It’s quite possible we’ll fall victim, especially when it comes to hooking up an elderly relative who hasn’t seen her grandchildren in 6 months or more. IF you know of a really old person who’s been cut off from family and friends, and can spare the cost of a Kindle or other tablet, help them connect virtually with younger relatives, by donating a tablet to them. You might just save a life, without realizing it. Better yet, set it up for them, and input all the numbers they need, so all they must do is press dial. Make that the mitvah you’ll perform this year.
And don’t let a shrug at bank earnings fool you into thinking it will be an easy Earnings season. The banks are a ringed group that don’t often have relevance to other sectors. But whatever you do, don’t forget the countdown to the election is on, and accelerating to the denouement. No matter who wins, at least 40% of the US population is bound to be disappointed.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Complete International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 10/11
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et
China Sept Vehicle Sales, FDI, New Yuan Loans, Social Financing
UK FinTech A.I. Public-Private Forum
BoE MPC Haskel webinar "Economic Impact of COVID-19" (15:00 bst)
ECB Pres Lagarde pre-recorded talk w/IMF’s Dir. of Europe A. Krammer
MONDAY, 10/12
Columbus Day--US Treasury Holiday
US Equities Trade Regular Hours
BoJ Chief Kuroda opens IIF--Institute for Int’l Finance Annual Membership Mtg
IMF & World Bank Group Joint Annual virtual Meeting (thru 18th)
ECB’s de Guindos speaks @IIF Annual Membership Meeting (11am et; thru 16th)
BoE The Central Bank Payments Conference’20: Oversight of Retail Payments
Sen. McConnell begins hearings on nomination of Amy Coney Barret to Supreme Court—no stimulus to millions of hungry & unemployed but stack the court with anti-abortion judge crucial
ECB’s Panetta presents report on central bank digital currency to EcoFIN
Milken Institute 2020 Global virtual Conference Meeting the Moment (thru 21st)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
China Sept Trade Balance
UK July Unemployment Rate/Change, Sept Claimant Count
German Oct ZEW Index of Conditions/Expectations
South Africa Mining/Gold Production
TUESDAY, 10/13
NFIB Sept US Small Biz Optimism Index
US Sept CPI/Core CPI
US Treasury Auctions $54B 3-, & $51B 6-month Bills
US Treasury Auctions $30B reopened 119-day & $30B reopened 42-day Bills
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Japan Aug Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
ECB Pres. Lagarde speaks @16th Biennial Global Roundtable from UN environment Programme Finance Initiative (10:00cet)
IEA Oil Market Report
EU Aug Industrial Production
WEDNESDAY, 10/14
MBA weekly Mortgage Purchase/Refinance Applications
ECB’s Lane speaks @SUERF "How to spend it:? How to pay it? EU & US Perspectives" Redbook weekly US store sales snapshot
ECB’s Enria panelist @Systemic Risk Council webinar (15:25 cet)
BoE’s Breeden speaks @IIF Mtg "New regulatory & policy landscape for sustainable finance"
IMF, World Bank Group, G20 concurrent Meetings
US Sept PPI/Core PPI
Fed V.Ch Clarida "US Eco Outlook & Monetary Policy" @IIF Annual virtual Mtg
Fed V.Ch Quarlies on "Financial Regulation" @Hoover Institute Monetary Policy Series
Gen H.R. McMaster (former Trump NSA Chief) virtual speech @Economic Club NY (2pm et)
API weekly Oil Report (delayed by Columbus Day holiday)
Fed’s Kaplan virtual Town Hall "Economic Developments & Implications for Monetary Policy"
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
RBA Gov Lowe speaks
China Sept CPI, PPI
BoE publishes 3Q20 Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys (9:30 bst)
THURSDAY, 10/15
UK PM Boris Johnson set today as deadline for Brexit Talks
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Philly Fed Oct Manufacturing Index
US Sept Import/Export Prices
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 10/10)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (11am et)
Fed V Ch Quarles "Response to COVID Event" @IIF Annual Meeting
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (values not announced at post)
Atlanta Fed "Reframing Benefits Cliffs: Solutions for an Inclusive Recovery"
ECB Pres. Lagarde speaks @CNBC debate on the Global Economy @IMF/WBG Annual
Richmond Fed Pres/CEO Thomas Barkin speaks @Economic Club NY (2pm et)
FRB "Investing in the Future of Child Care: Child Care as a Community Investment (12pm pt)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Pres. Candidate V.P. Biden Town Hall on ABC TV [DIS] (9pm et)
Eurozone Sept New Car Registrations
EU Aug Trade Balance, Sept CPI/HICP
FRIDAY, 10/16
US Sept Retail Sales
US Sept Industrial+Manufacturing Production/Capacity Utilization
Fed’s Williams "Conversation about Creative Sector, Community Development & Impact Investing" @Culture & Communities (9am et)
FDIC 10th Annual Consumer Research virtual Symposium
IMF-world Bank Grp Joint Fall Meeting continues
U.M. Oct (P) Consumer Sentiment/Expectations/Outlook
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No. Am. Oil/Total Rig Count (1pm et)
US Aug TICS
OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
New Zealand General Election, Cannabis & Euthanasia Referendums, too
SATURDAY, 10/17
IMF/World Bank Group Joint Annual Virtual Meeting Continues
WEEKS AHEAD: 10/18 ECB Pres Lagarde panelist @G20 Int’l Banking Seminar
10/19 Fed Financial Stability & Coronavirus Pandemic (thru 22nd)
FOMC Chief Powell panelist on "Cross-Border Payment" (8am)
10/20 ECB MPC Meets
11/05 FOMC 2-day Meeting Ends
For more extensive information, see Full Int’l Economic Calendar
EARNINGS: (We cover the major money-center banks, and the largest foreign banks traded in the US, especially those that must take FRB/FDIC stress tests. For this week, we’ve included some smaller banks because the first real week of Earnings season is so replete with banks but that’s unusual. If you have a deeper interest in banks, we’re probably not complete enough for your purposes. We ignore "The" in corporate names unless it’s integral to the ticker, which it rarely is. Our cut off is Thursday, at noon. Any company that hasn’t confirmed by then, misses the cut. Four companies provided updates today, 10/08, and stated their next reporting date in those pieces. During earnings season, we simply don’t have time to dig that deeply into every older press release to extract that information but we do check investor calendars in a effort at accuracy. However, we reject most cookies and often are bared from the IR site information we need for that reason. We think that should be outlawed. If you want to sum up the week look no further than Tuesday and Wednesday, for the summation of the week.)
MONDAY, 10/12: Columbus Day Bank Holiday in US
TUESDAY, 10/13: BLK, C, DAL, ENZ, FAST, FRC, JNJ, JPM, EDU, ODC, schw???, WIT
WEDNESDAY, 10/14: AA, BAC, cns???, GS, HCCI, INFY, SNBR, PNC, USB, UAL, UNH, WFC
THURSDAY, 10/15: BCLI, CMC, sid???, TACO, HOMB, hon????, ISRG, MS, sbny???, TSM, TFC, WBA, WABC
FRIDAY, 10/16: ALLY, BMI, BK, CFG, JBHT, KSU, SLB, SXT, sify???, STT, VFC
EVENTS: (Please, always check the free calendar accessed via the left frame for additional events we discovered after this was posted. Without any hotel or convention center bottlenecks, since almost everything is being conducted virtually, events are mixing up dates at will, and sometimes extending events over weeks, lunch hours only.)
SUNDAY, 10/11:
EEI (Edison Electric Institute) Fall National Key Accounts virtual Workshop (thru 28th)
AIAA & IEEE 39th Digital Avionics Systems virtual Conference (thru 16th)
Society of Exploration Geologists Annual virtual Int’l Conference/Expo (thru 16th)
NYSE Euronext Fund virtual Forum International (thru 16th)
NIC (Senior Housing & Care Properties) 2020 Fall virtual Conference (thru 15th)
EACR European Ass’n for Cancer Research-virtual Cancer Metabolism (thru 13th)
Siemens Healthineers Executive CANCELED Summit
Coachella 2020 Music & Arts Festival CANCELED
US in-water Powerboat Show (Annapolis MD)
Virtual ComicCon New York x MCMComicCon Metaverse
MONDAY, 10/12
US Treasuries CLOSED for Columbus Day|Equities Trade Regular Hours
JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate virtual Conference
71st International Astronautical virtual Congress (thru 14th)
National Hardware virtual Show (rescheduled from Spring to August, to Oct, thru 15th)
2020 Cell & Gene virtual Meeting on the Mesa (thru 16th)
Informa Connect MedTrade virtual Summit (thru 16th)
MIPcom Entertainment Content Market Digital Event (thru 16th)
The Economist Redefining Cyber Security, AI & Remote Work (2pm Bst)
American Property & Casualty Underwriters Annual virtual Meeting (thru 13th)
ACLI Life Insurance Underwriters virtual Conference (thru 13th)
Laser World virtual Congress + World of Photonics virtual (thru 15th)
SCTE Cable-Tec virtual Expo (thru 16th)
SCIX Analytical Chemistry virtual Conference (thru 15th)
AACAP 65th Annual virtual Mtg of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry (thru 24th)
Chicago Ideas virtual Week (thru 17th)
Diggers & Dealers Hybrid Mining Forum (Kalgoorlie W. Australia thru 14th)
Copenhagen Fashion virtual Design Studio presented by Avery Dennison (AVY) thru 13th
Tiburon Advisors CEO Summit CANCELED until 2021
Target (TGT) Deal Days Sale (competes with Prime Days)
Walmart (WMT) starts its Prime Days Competing Week-long Sale
TUESDAY, 10/13
Cowen 2020 Therapeutics virtual Conference (thru 14th)
Fixed Income Leaders Online Event (thru 13th)
Debtwire virtual Week (thru 15th)
AGA 2020 Executive virtual Conference (11am –2:30pm et)
Berenberg UK Opportunities virtual Conference
Stephens Restaurant Earnings Preview covering: BJRI, EAT, TAST, CAKE, CMG, CHUY, DRI, DENN, DPZ, KRUS, MCD, PZZA, RUTH, SBUX, TXRH, WEN
BIO Investor virtual Forum (thru 15th)
Broadband World virtual Forum (thru 15th)
CCW Content & Marketing virtual World (thru 16th)
High Point LIVE! Int’l Furniture Market (High Point NC thru 21st)
WEAR 2020 virtual Summit (thru 15th)
Intersport Brand Innovation virtual Summit
TDWI virtual Emerging Architectures for Modern Data Warehouses & Data Lakes (thru 14th)
Training Magazine’s Tech (Online) Learning (thru 15th)
Mansions Global virtual Event (thru 15th)
AUSA (Army) virtual Annual Meeting/Expo (thru 18th)
EVCA (European PE & VC) Investors virtual Forum (thru 14th)
UBS 23rd SA (So Africa) Financials virtual Conference
Citi Argentina virtual Conference (thru 14th)
IACP 42nd Anniversary Culinary Professionals RESCHEDULED for 10/21
CIO 100 Symposium & Awards Part 2 (thru 14th)
JIS Jewelers Int’l Showcase CANCELED until 2021
Amazon (AMZN) Kicks-off 2-day sale Prime Days (starts 3am et, ends 14th midnight pt)
Apple Inc (AAPL) Special Event/Unveil presumed for 5G iPhones virtual from Cupertino CA
Bottomline Technologies (EPAY) virtual marketing w/Stephens
CHC: Cerner (CERN) Fall virtual Health Conference (thru 14th)
GE (GE) Power Digital Energy virtual User Conference (thru 15th)
WEDNESDAY, 10/14
12th Annual Capital Link NY Maritime virtual Forum (thru 15th)
B Riley Financial virtual Energy CEO Forum
TCT 2020 virtual Transcatheter Cardiovascular Therapeutics (thru 18th)
G2E Global Gaming Expo virtual Preview (event starts 27th)
AHIMA-Health Information Management virtual Conference/Expo (thru 17th)
French-American Chamber of Commerce Foundation virtual Future of Beauty
GPC 30th Government Procurement virtual Conference (thru 15th)
43rd NABOB By Black (Broadcasters) virtual Conference (thru 16th)
Sales 3.0 virtual Conference (thru 15th)
Most Powerful Women in Banking: NEXT Virtual (thru 15th)
Jefferies Pan-European SMID-Cap virtual Conference
Berenberg Pan-European Discovery virtual Conference
EULAR 13th Biennial virtual Mtg of the European Society of Immunodeficiencies (thru 16th)
Frankfurt Book virtual Fair—Digital virtual Fair (thru 18th)
Citi 12th Australia & New Zealand Investment virtual Conference (thru 15th)
Nomura virtual Consumer Corporate Day (thru 15th)
World Congress of Psychiatry (Bangkok Thailand thru 17th)
GMS (GMS) virtual NDR w/Stephens
HD Supply (HDS) NDR w/Wolfe Research
Tillys (TLYS) virtual NDR w/Briley Financial
Billboard Magazine Music Awards Show (NBC-[CMCSA] 8pm et)
THURSDAY, 10/15
Cowen 5th Annual MedTools virtual Conference
Santander International virtual Banking Conference Weekly (thru 11/05)
Oxford Global Biomarkers virtual Series US (thru 16th)
Battery & Hybrid Show Europe (Stuttgart Germany thru 17th)
Cardiovascular Update & Advances in Congenital Heart Summit Virtual LIVE (thru 17th)
AAOMED Orthopaedic Medicine annual Scientific Sessions moved to December
Beverage virtual Forum Rescheduled for Spring 2021
GamesCon (Singapore thru 18th)
Converge Technology Solutions (CTS.CA) Conf. Call w/B Riley
28th Biketoberfest (Sturgis again but in Daytona Beach FL thru 18th)
FRIDAY, 10/16
AACR Tumor Immunology & Immunotherapy virtual Meeting postponed to 10/19
IASLC No. Am. virtual Conference on Lung Cancer (thru 17th)
APLCC Int’l Society Virtual Conference on Lung Cancer (thru 17th)
ASPA Plastic Surgery: The virtual Meeting (thru 18th)
MailCom CANCELED
Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian MoynhihanC-Suite View @IIF (12:30pm et)
Barclays plc (BCS) CEO Jes Staley C-Suite Global View @IIF (10:45am et)
BlackRock (BLK) CEO Laurence Find C-Suite View @IIF (1:30pm et)
CommVault (CVLT) Backup & Brews virtual Oktoberfest
EA (EA) Sports launches NHL21 video game
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon C-Suite View @IIF (1pm et)
Wells Fargo (WFC) CEO Charles Scharf C-Suite Global Outlook @IIF(10:45am et)
FILMS OPENING where theaters are open: "Shithouse," with written, directed & starring Cooper Raiff, Dylan Gelula, Logan Miller, a Grand Prize winner @SXSW Film Festival, distributed by IFC Films. "2 Hearts," with Jacob Elordi, Radha Mithcell Adan Canto, Kari Matchett, based on true story, distributed by Freestyle Releasing. "Alone," with Donald Sutherland, Tyler Posey, Robert Richard, froom ICW Partners & JAR Films. (We couldn’t find a distributor.)
SATURDAY, 10/17
ASRM Reproductive Medicine Annual Virtual Meeting (thru 21st)
6th Traders4aCause virtual Conference & Charity Golf Tournament (thru 18th) EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2020 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2020 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in far more complete due diligence.