What You missed LAST Week:
I-BANK CONFERENCES RULE
September 13—17, 2021 We’re so pumped by the number of I-Bank Conferences, we’re tempted to skip the Economic Calendar, altogether, point out Oracle reporting Monday, and get right to Monday’s conferences. However, that would not be form, so we’re going to gloss over the Economic Calendar, point out the low level of Treasury Auctions, as the debt ceiling still needs to be raised, and Congress returning this week, though the Republicans seem disinclined to deal with it until Dems give up their $5.5 Trillion plans for infrastructure—both agreed & to be reconciled. Therefore, Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen is doing her best to juggle accounts.
We’ll get CPI on Tuesday, then Wednesday, slide right into the sundown start of Yom Kippur—the holiest day in Judaism, when fasting is the sacrifice to recall the forebearers’ suffering. It was a lousy day for Broadway to decide to come back but, then, there was a 2020 date that didn’t work out either, and only 3 BIG shows are scheduled to reopen on the 14th, Disney one of the offenders. Even the least religious tend to limit their texting and other interactions, on Yom Kippur—just to be safe. Yom Kippur will end at sundown on Thursday. ISDA, the Swaps & Derivatives Association is meeting, with a few NY Fed Execs speaking, though not Pres/CEO Williams, and we think ECB MPC Lane’s review of the ‘ECB’s Monetary Policy Strategy Reviiew’ is likely to be the more interesting of the speeches that day. SOFR is on ISDA’s mind, the long coming and delayed replacement for LIBOR.
The EIA Petroleum, et al data could be a shocker, given the drill platforms & refineries that had to be restarted after storm Ida threatened, then flooded the Gulf Coast. Also of note, Thursday’s initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims, Aug Retail Sales, and the Philly Fed Sept Manufacturing Index. From here, we skip right to the Events Calendar, where the I-Banks are in overdrive.
If there’s any doubt in your mind, by all means, just check out the Monday Event Calendar, where it’s hard to find an event that is NOT hosted by an I-bank. Sorting them in order of importance was impossible. In the end, we defaulted to the ones we thought were of most interest to traders—often based on the information released in past years at the identical event, and favored those covering topics less well-trod in recent months. We’ll give it to Deutsche Bank’s Aviation Finance on the 13th, Leasing 1x1 on the 14th for a topic not well covered of late, though the airlines have been doing a good job of keeping the Street apprised on how the delta variant of the virus is impacting their bookings and loads. We’d have pulled Airline Economics closer to DB’s conference but, alas, it’s scheduled for Dublin Ireland, so wouldn’t matter how close we pulled it—it would still be an ocean and many time zones away. Speaking of which, many events scheduled for this month and next, often rescheduled from earlier dates, were intended to be in-person events. The Delta variant has sidelined many of them and we simply ran out of time to recheck every event. Assume all are virtual, or hybrid events that include a virtual component, even the ones in Orlando & Las Vegas, which are mostly intended to proceed in-person,
Global Healthcare & Technology seemed reasonably well covered, of late but such large events could not be pushed off the page either. Morgan Stanley’s Laguna Conference is Industrials, as a rule, while credit to Jefferies which went to the edge of the map with Home Retail—a repeat of a 2020 event, to augment its usual Pet, and Fitness & Wellness. Again, for the best sense of how dominant the I-banks are, this week, you could do worse than study the Monday schedule, in detail. Tuesday there are not nearly as many I-bank conferences starting but, again, the fact that many of the run into Wednesday, and Yom Kippur, suggests someone didn't do a really good job of checking the Hebrew calendar--as it proved I did not, either. Originally, I had Yom Kippur starting Sundown on Tuesday, ending Sundown Wednesday but that was the error on my 2-year pocket calendar bought early last year. Yom Kippur is Thursday, starting Wednesday at sundown, and ending thursday at sundown. Mea culpa--BIG TIME!!! (Hebrew calendars are printed in English, if you’re curious, Rosh Hashana the New Year, Yom Kippur the Day of Atonement, a once a year opportunity, unlike Catholics who get to confess as often as they’d like.)
There are a couple of individual corporate events that will attract oodles of attention, including Apple’s launch event on Tuesday, at which new iPhones, Watches, iPads, & AirPods are expected. Roche hosts a Pharma virtual day Tuesday, while Chevron weighs in on its lower carbon future, Ecolab plans morning & an afternoon session for its IR day,. Cisco Sysems’ analyst day is Wednesday, when Amazon plans a massive hiring event—it’s referring to as a Career Day. Anyone really think AMZN is going to offer careers to the tens of thousands of workers it hopes to hire for its holiday warehouses--alledgedly 125K workers? Thursday, JPMorgan is hosting a group meeting for Wolfe Research clients. That might be a bit of overkill, given that it’s presenting at Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Monday. The banks & brokers have, traditionally, spoken freely about trading activity, M&A, and new issues, at events this time of year. This time of year often sees a slowdown in activity, as holidays—including the Labor Day & the Jewish Holidays—interrupt the flow. Things pick up again in October but, in the meantime, a Fed on hold, and slower trading ops, combine to take the shine off the Financials.
Meantime, the bulls seem tired, though not in complete retreat but could be soon. The last few weeks didn’t go well for them, with the S&P rising trend line fast approaching current, declining, price levels. The DJIA has broken the rising trend line and should be watched carefully, if you own any of the 30 stocks involved. Otherwise, the $Comp looks OK but worth watching because trend lines are about to cross to the downside, which would become worrisome if the S&P doesn’t reverse from the sharply rising trend line it’s soon to test. All in, stocks look about to drip into negative territory, and test the bulls’ resolve. Typically, a late September to mid-October draw down creates a great buying opportunity, by about the 25th of October. With so many strategists pointing out how long it’s been since a (-5.0)% draw down, absolutely no one will be surprised if one arrives in the coming weeks or days. Usually, the maxim is Sell Rosh Hashana & Buy Yom Kippur, and that may be the case this time too. But with such a long time since any serious draw down arrived, maybe it’s just time there finally is one.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 09/12:
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q3 Conditions, Aug PPI
China Aug FDI, Outstanding Loans & Social Financing
German Aug Wholesale Prices
G20 Finance & Central Bank Deputies Meet (Naples, Italy)
IFABS 2021 Oxford Conference-BoE FPC Hauser speaks on 13th (thru 15th)
MONDAY, 09/13:
ECB Pres Lagarde conversation with Martin Wolfe @Aspen Int;l Conf on "Why post-COVID recovery needs women: empowerment, financing & rights" (15:30 cet)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $45B 6-month Bills (and that’s about it for the week!!)
US Treasury Aug. Monthly Budget Statement
SALT (Anthony Scaramucci) Conference (NY thru 15th)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Japan July Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
UK Jun Unemployment Rate/Change/July Aug Avg Earnings/Aug Claimant Count
So. Africa July Mining/Gold Production
ECB MPC Fernandez-Bollo keynotes Euromoney/ECBC Covered Bond Congress
TUESDAY, 09/14
NFIB Aug Business Optimism Index
US Aug CPI/Core CPI
Canada July Manufacturing Sales
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (Labor Day boost?)
API weekly crude report
Yom Kippur, Holiest Day in Judaism, Starts @Sundown
Select NYC/Broadway Shows Reopen
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Japan Reuters Tankan Sept Index, July Machinery Orders, Tertiary Industry Index
China NBS Presser: Aug House Price Index, Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate
UK Aug CPI/Core CPI/, PPI/Core PPI, Retail & House Price Index
EU, France, Germany, Italy Aug CPI/HICP
EU July Industrial Production, Q2 Labour Cost Index/Wage Growth
ECB MPC Schnabel speaks @ECBC Covered Bond Market V-Conference (14:30 cet)
WEDNESDAY, 09/15
MBA weekly Mortgage Purchase/Refinance Applications
Philly Fed Community Development Rural Policy V-Summit: Education (9am et)
NY Fed Exec VP Held keynotes ISDA Swaps & Derivatives Ass’n Part III (9:10am et)
US Aug Imports/Exports
NY Fed Empire State Sept Manufacturing Index
NY Fed Exec VP of Market Ops: Future for Benchmarks @ISDA (noon edt)
ECB MPC Lane on "ECB’s Monetary Policy Strategy Review" @IMFC Policy webinar
US Aug Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am et)
NY Fed 1st VP Hassan opens 4th Trimester & Beyond: The Case for Broad Investments in Maternal & Child Health @NY Fed/NYU Nursing/NYC DoH/R W Wood Foundation webinar
Philly Fed "Ask the Fed: Sealed CECL Allowance for Losses Estimator"
S.L.Fed "Saving the Environment w/Economic Ideas" (4:30pm ct)
Yom Kippur, Holiest Day in Judaism, Ends @Sundown
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Japan Aug Trade Balance
RBA (AUD) Bulletin
EU Aug New Car Registrations
Swiss SECO Economic Forecasts
EU July Trade Balance
ECB Pres Lagarde @1st Edition "HEC Talks," hosted by Ecole des Hautes Studies Commerciales de Paris/EU League for Economic Cooperation (14:00 cet)
THURSDAY, 09/16
US weekly Initial jobless claims/Continuing claims
US Aug Retail Sales
Philly Fed Sept Manufacturing Index/CapEx/New Orders/Prices/Employment
US July Business Inventories
EIA weekly Natural Gas Draws/Injections/Stockpiles (10:30am et)
US July TICS
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. e:
Japan Aug National CPI/Core CPI
UK Aug Retail Sales
EU July Current Account, Aug CPI/Core CPI
FRIDAY, 09/17
U.M. Prelim Sept Consumer Confidence/Inflation Expectations
Baker-Hughes weekly No. Am./US Total/Oil Rig Count (1pm et)
WEEKS AHEAD:
09 /21--22 FOMC Meets
09/22 FOMC post-Meeting Statement, Chief Powell Press Conference
BoJ MPC Meets
09/23 BoE FPC Meets
SNB MPC Meets
09/28-29 Fed's Bostic @Chicago Fed 21st Payments Symposium
KC.Fed--Fed Reserve System Community Banking Innovation (thru 30th)
09/29 Power to Tax: Addressing Economic (Dis) parity in Indian Country (noon ct)
FinTech V-Summit on Cloud Computing: Continuing the Conversation' (9am)
EARNINGS: (We follow only the major money-center banks, major regionals, and largest foreign banks traded in the US. Want more? We’re not for you. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless integral to the ticker—which it rarely is. Lower case tickers plus 3 question marks are those releases not confirmed—for various reasons, including our refusal to approve all cookies. COE, Monday, Chinese Online Education, unlikely to schedule a report, given China’s decision they should be non-profits. We’ve checked every ticker for Monday, and those in lower case remain unconfirmed and, honestly, doubtful. Tuesday, we spotted MYTE, MyTheresa, the online spin off from Neiman Marcus, we’d forgotten about. (GEG), Great Elm Group, provides 24 hours heads up, so you might check Wednesday for Thursday, if it interests you.)
MONDAY, 09/13: csbr???, coe???, coda???, dava???, EPM, fkwl???, ICMB, MTRX, AVO, NSSC, ORCL, UEPS, psti???, rzlt???, SEAC, virc???, VOLT
TUESDAY, 09/14: ASPU, ALOT, CNM, DTEA, FCEL, IBEX, KSPN, MYTE, SKIL
WEDNESDAY, 09/15: JKS
THURSDAY, 09/16: geg???, ktra???, tc???
FRIDAY, 09/17: MANU
EVENTS: ("V-" = Virtual; "D-" =Digital)
SUNDAY, 09/12:
Morgan Stanley 19th Global Healthcare V-Conference (thru 15th)
SHRM EMA Talent & Staffing Management Conf/Expo (Las Vegas NV)
NYFW—New York Fashion Week Designer Runway Shows
MAGIC + MODA RTW Fashion Week (NY thru 21st)
116th AUA Am. Urological Ass’n Annual Meeting (Las Vegas thru 13th)
IASP Biennial International Pain V-Congress
NIGP (gov’t procurement) Forum Leadership Summit (Anaheim CA thru 14th)
IASLC World Conference on Lung Cancer (Denver CO thru 14th)
SAE 15th Int’l Conf. on Engines & Vehicles (Capri, Italy thru 16th)
Les Financials Rendez-Vous de Septembre CANCELED
IAA Mobility Congress (Munich DE)
COSMOPACK & COSMO (Bologna Italy thru 13th)
Int’l Headache Society Annual (Helsinki Finland)
EA (EA) "Lost in Random," launch weekend
Facebook (FB) DMEXCO (Cologne DE)
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Annual European Meeting (Faaker See, Austria thru 13th)
Microsoft (MSFT) Visual Studio Live! (San Diego CA thru 16th)
SuperCon (Miami Beach FL)
MTV VMA’s—Video Music Awards Live from NYC (VIAC)
MONDAY, 09/13
Barclays Global Financial Services V-Conference (thru 15th)
JPMorgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Access V-Forum (Las Vegas thru 14th)
Bank of America Media, Communications & Entertainment V-Conference (thru 14th)
Deutsche Bank 11th Aircraft Finance & Leasing Conference—Airline 1x1 (Hybrid-NY thru 14th)
Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Part 2 V-Conference (thru 15th)
Citi Global Technology V-Conference (thru 15th)
PiperSandler Global Technology V-Conference
Morgan Stanley 9th Laguna (Industrials) V-Conference (thru 14th)
UBS Global Energy Transition V-Conference (thru 16th)
Credit Suisse 34th Basic Materials Conference (NY thru 14th)
BMO Capital 2021 Real Assets Conference (city TBD thru 14th)
Wells Fargo 10th Net Lease REIT V-Forum (thru 14th)
Jefferies Home Retail V-Summit
Bernstein Back to school—what we learned this summer—Technology webinar
H.C. Wainright 23rd Rodman & Renshaw Global Investment Conference (Hybrid—NY thru 15th)
Nomura Korea Corporate V-Day in US (thru 15th)
53rd Waste V-Expo (thru 14th)
NAIC State Commissioners Insurance Summit (Kansas City KS thru 24th)
Sequire EdTech V-Conference w/AMST, QOEG, BOXL, LMDCF, NEXCF
ISSX V-Study of Xenobiotics (thru 17th)
Retail Council of Canada STORE V-Event (thru 16th)
Goldman Sachs 11th EMEA Credit & Leveraged Finance V-Conference (thru 15th)
Citi Insurance @Monte Carlo (London thru 16th)
Berenberg Food Ingredients & Chemicals V-Conference (BST thru 14th)
Wards Automotive Tech V-Week Europe (thru 17th)
Airline Economics: Aviation & the Environment--Sustainability Summit (Dublin Ireland thru 16th)
Morgan Stanley RMB Big Five Investor V-Conference (thru 14th)
Credit Suisse Korea Construction V-Day (thru 14th)
CLSA CITIC 28th Annual Flagship Investor V-Forum (thru 17th)
GasTech (Singapore thru 16th)
Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) V-Fireside chat w/Stephens (11AM ET)
BorgWarner (BWA) V-NDR w/Wolfe Research
CloudMD Software & Services (DOCRF) V-Roadshow w/Stephens
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Analyst Day (9:30am pst)
Zoom Video (ZV) Analyst Day @Zoomtopia (2pm edt)
ZV Zoomtopia (thru 14th)
NY’s Met Gala (Metropolitan Museum of Art)
TUESDAY, 09/14
Select NYC/Broadway Shows Reopen
Raymond James Consumer V-Conference
Baird Global Healthcare V-Conference (thru 15th)
Peters & Co Global Energy V-Conference (thru 16th)
BMO Capital 22nd Media & Technology V-Conference
Scotiabank Back to School V-Conference
Credit Suisse AgriBusiness & Foods V-Conference (thru 16th)
BMO Capital Real Estate Conference (NY)
C.L.King 19th Best Ideas V-Conference
Jefferies Fitness & Wellness V-Summit (thru 15th)
Jefferies Software V-Conference (thru 15th)
Grocery Shop (Las Vegas thru 17th)
SAE COMVEC (Commercial Vehicles—Hybrid-Rosemont IL thru 16th)
UNC/Kenan-Flagler Biz School Hollywood Accounting Online
NATPE European Market & Content Summit (Los Angeles)
AACR Advances in Ovarian Cancer Research Seminar Series (thru 15th)
Parcel Forum (Washington DC thru 16th)
FTR Forecasting Transportation Conference (Indianapolis IN thru 16th)
Citi Best of Switzerland V-Conference (thru 17th)
Bernstein Back to School: What we learnt this summer: Consumer (London)
Euromoney ECBC Covered Bond V-Congress (thru 16th)
Cyber Intelligence Europe (Rome Italy thru 16th)
Apple Inc (AAPL) Launch Event—California Streaming (iPhone 13, Watch 7, AirPods 3??)
Chevron (CVX) lower carbon future conf call (10am et )
Ecolab (ECL) Investor Relations Day (9am et)
MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) Investor Relations Day (8:30am edt)
Roche (ROG:CH) Pharma V-Day
WEDNESDAY, 09/15
RV Basics Motorhome—Family Coach Ass’n Convention & RV Expo (Hershey PA thru 19th)
Global EV—E-Motor Designs & Technologies Online (thru 16th)
ISDA (Swaps & Derivatives) Benchmark Strategies Forum Part III Final Countdown (9am et)
Bernstein SIC—Silicon Carbide Series webinar (Soiter)
AutomotiveNews DealerSocket webinar
Pareto Securities 28th Annual Energy V-Conference
HSBC Milan V-Day
Jefferies India IT V-Summit (thru 16th)
Jefferies India EV—Electric Vehicle V-Summit (thru 16th)
Bernstein Unplugged India SaaS Opportunity & Freshworks IPO (Hong Kong)
agilon health (AGL) V-NDR w/Wolfe Research
Amazon (AMZN) ‘Career’ Day to hire tens of thousands of holiday workers
Carriage Services Inc (CSV) V-NDR w/B Riley Fin
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Investor V-Day (8am pt)
First American Financial (FAF) V-Marketing w/Stephens
DZS Inc (DZSI) 1x1 Conf Call w/B Riley
THURSDAY, 09/16
Jefferies Pet V-Summit
NYSE Energy & Utilities V-Event
Citi Small/Mid-Cap Growth V-Conference (thru 17th)
FinTech World V-Forum (thru 17th)
3rd IHS Automotive Technology Executive V-Briefing (w/Japan Auto Daily)
CE China for IFA (Guanzhou China) CANCELED
Identiv Inc (INVE) 1x1 Conf. Call w/B Riley Fin
JPMorgan (JPM) V-Group Meeting w/Wolfe Research
Nintendo (NTDOY) & Ubisoft (UBSFY) global launch of "Mario+ Rabbids Kingdom Battle for Switch"
Paychex Inc (PAYX) CFO w/Northcoast Research (3:30pm)
Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) V-NDR & 1x1 Conf Call w/B Riley Fin
GenCon Indy Online (Indianapolis IN timezone thru 19th)
FRIDAY, 09/17
Citi Int’l Emerging Restaurant Forum (London)
Int’l V-Congress on Parkinson’s Disease (thru 20th)
MDS--Movement Disorder Society @Parkinson’s Disease V-Congress (thru 22nd)
Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG) V-NDR w/Wolfe Research
Kelly Services (KELYA) Fireside Chat with Northcoast Research
FILMS OPENING: "Cry Macho," with Clint Eastwood, directed by Eastwood, via Warner Bros (T). "Blue Bayou," w/Justin Chon, who also wrote & directed, Alice Wikander, Mark O’Brien, via Focus Features (CMCSA), after debut @ Cannes Film Festival. "Prisoners of the Ghostland," w/Nicholas Cage. Sofia Boutell, Nick Cassavetes, via RLJE Films, after Sundance debut. "The Eyes of Tammy Faye," I resisted including but with Andew Garfield, Jessica Chastain, who also produced, and Vincent D’Onofrio, it really made it difficult to do that, via Searchlight Pictures release (DIS). "Lady of the Manor," w/Melanie Lynskey, Judy Greer, Justin Long, Ryan Phillipe, via Lionsgate (LGF.A). "Best Sellers," w/Michael Caine, Aubrey Plaza, Cary Elwes, Scott Speedman, via Screen Media Films (CSSE). "The Duke," compelling story of the only painting ever stolen from London’s National Gallery, w/Helen Mirren, Matthew Goode, Anna Maxwell Martin, Jim Broadbent, Fionn Whitehead, via Sony Pictures Classic (SONY). "Copshop," w/Gerard Butler, Frank Grillo, and a Crown Vic, via Open Road Films, owned now by Raven Capital Management, who bought it out of bankruptcy after owners AMC Theaters & Regal Theaters couldn’t raise money needed n 2019, later sold to Tang Tang before bankruptcy brought it to Raven. "The Wonderful Stories From the Space Station," documentary featuring the ISS astronauts (Scott Kelly, William M Shepherd, and more) recounting their experiences at the ISS, via Universal (CMCSA).
SATURDAY, 09/18
RSPA’s GroceryShop (Las Vegas thru 22nd)
CHART 100--Hospitality Training LIVE Competencies Certificate Series (Dallas TX thru 21st)
Christo’s Posthumous L’Art de Triomphe (Paris FR) wrapped w/aid of those who worked with him for decades. EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2021 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2021 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.