What You missed LAST Week:
EARNINGS & HOUSING DATA
July 19—23, 2021 The Fed is in a quiet period the week prior to its next meeting which will be July 27—28. The ECB Meets and relays its decision in the pre-market Thursday morning. Later Thursday, San Francisco Fed Pres Daly will speak on climate risk, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics—climate risks to companies and, in particular, financial institutions, launched by ECB Pres. Lagarde, back when she was still at the IMF, now picked up by the SEC and, to a lesser extent, the FOMC, though Congress hasn’t changed or expanded the Fed’s dual mandate so not in its purview except theoretically. Monday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will deliver their Housing Market Index. Tuesday is release of Jun Housing Starts & Building Permits. Wednesday, weekly Mortgage Applications, Thursday the National Association of Realtors’ June Existing Home Sales. All in, a full house of housing data, just in time for possible signs of a slowdown.
We emboldened a lot more Earnings Reporting tickers than usual, to acknowledge how early in the season it is, and how diverse the reporting companies are, this week. Not on the lists of reporters, probably over 70 smaller financials that we don’t cover. Then again, we can’t help but notice Ally Financial & Synchrony (both Tues.), Discover Financial (Wed.), Capital One Financial (Thurs.) and American Express (Fri.), all heavily into consumer credit—even Amex, with its Blue & Optima cards. Also reporting ManPower (Tues.) & Robert Half (Thurs.) which should be able to shed more light on jobs going wanting. Railroads are sprinkled throughout the week, as are airlines, now coming out of their money losing quarters to resume reporting profits, assuming the delta variant doesn’t shutdown leisure travel, again. Recall, the airlines were never off limits to travelers—it was business travelers who decided to stay safe and Zoom their meetings, instead, even as domestic leisure travelers didn’t brave air travel until vaccines became more widely available.
Some of the names to be most heavily followed include AutoNation and IBM on Monday, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Netflix on Tuesday, ASML, Nasdaq Exchange, Seagate Technology, Texas Instruments, Verizon & Whirlpool Wednesday. Thursday, reports are expected from Alasksa Air & American Airlines, AT&T, Biogen, Blackstone, Boston Beer, D.R. Horton, Domino’s Pizza, Intel, Newmont Mining, SNAP, & Snap-on, Twitter & Union Pacific. Friday, Honeywell, Kimberly Clark, & NextEra Energy. And that’s just skimming five days of reports.
The possible slowdown in new home sales is not the only slowdown evident this week. There’s a slowdown in events, partially related to summer, alone, but also the fact that it’s early in Earnings Season, which provides plenty to distract analysts. Add in COVID causing many early and mid-summer events to be postponed until fall, when in-person events were presumed to be assured, along with expectations that many upper echelons of executives would be in Tokyo for the postponed Olympics, as most expected a return to normal by mid-summer 2021. For the athletes sake, we hope the Olympics, even absent stadium viewers, are as exciting and rewarding as anyone who’s trained 7, 10 or 12 years might hope. We wish ALL the athletes a wonderful, healthy, and rewarding experience.
Which brings us to the Events, beyond the Olympics opening on the 23rd. Game Developers meet in San Francisco, assuming Gov. Newsom doesn’t shut them down. The Independent Games Festival affiliated with GDC is listed as @Home this time. IMN’s 9th Single Family Rental V-Forum, starting Monday, probably attracts more attention than many expect. And with the Eviction Moratorium ending at the end of July, there may be another bonanza for private equity to step in and purchase homes on the cheap, again. The Android Developer V-Conference, Thursday, will probably be a more subdued affair, this year, held virtually, even as a few more hybrid events are snaking onto the calendar.
Traditionally, the first couple of weeks of Earnings Season sees weakness in equities, that nonetheless fine a way to celebrate, come week four or five, either Earnings that weren’t as bad as anticipated, or outlooks that weren’t as weak as feared. That means stocks are behaving in a more traditional way, now, than they did in recent months, when new highs were made at least weekly. All in, stocks are reacting to earnings exactly as they traditionally do, so no problem here, if they give up a little more ground this week, again.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 07/18
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
BoE FPC Haskel on pandemic ‘scaring’ the economy @Univ of Liverpool School of Mngmnt
UK Rightmove Jun House Price Index
MONDAY, 07/19
NAHB July Housing Market Index
US Treasury Auctions $54B 3-, & $51B 6-month Bills
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Japan Jun CPI/Core CPI, Import/Exports
RBA (Aussie) 07/06 Meeting Minutes
PBoC Prime Loan Rate
ECB Euro area Bank Lending Survey (10am cet)
TUESDAY, 07/20
US Jun Housing Starts/Building Permits
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
OMFIF Valuation, Risk & Digital Assets w/CFTC Commissioner (Virtual)
US Treasury Auctions $55B reopened, now 42-day, bills
Russia Jun GDP, Unemployment Rate/Wages, Retail Sales
IRS Tax V-Forums Start, for 5 weeks, on Tues., Wed., & Thurs.
API weekly Crude Report
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
BoE FPC Saporta on lessons learned from COVID-related stress for prudential regulation
WEDNESDAY, 07/21
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Canada New Housing Price Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 20-year Bonds
S.F. Fed ‘Addressing Climate Risk through Equitable Community Development’ (noon pdt)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Indonesia July Interest/Deposit/Lending Facility Rate Decisions
UK Q3 CBI Business Optimism Index, Jul Industrial Trends Orders
ECB MPC Interest/Deposit/Marginal Lending Rate & QE Decisions
ECB Pres. Lagarde post-Meeting Press Conference (14:30 cet; 07/22 local time)
THURSDAY, 07/22
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
So. Africa Interest & Overdraft Rate Decisions
Philly Fed Leveraging Workers’ Skills for Inclusive Economy: Tools, Resources, Evicence (noon)
NAR June Existing Home Sales
EIA weekly Natural Gas Draws/Injections/Stockpiles (10:30am et)
K.C. Fed July Manufacturing Index
S.F. Fed’s Daly Climate risk & the Fed: Preparing for an Uncertain Certainty @Peterson Institute for International Economics (11am edt)
US Treasury Auctions 4- & 8- week Bills (values announced mid-week)
US Treasury Auctions $16B 10-year TIPS
Japan Maritime Day Holiday
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Aussie Jul Market Manufacturing/Services/Composite (flash) PMI
UK GfK Jul Consumer Confidence, Jun Retail Sales
EU, French, German Markit Jul (flsh) Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI
UK Markit/CIPS Jul Mnftg/Services/Composite (flash) PMI
Russia Interest Rate Decision, CBR post-Meeting Press Conference
Mexico May Retail Sales
FRIDAY, 07/23
Canada May Retail Sales
US Markit July (flash) Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI
Baker-Hughes weekly No. Am./US Total/Oil Rig Count (1pm et)
Japan Sport Day Holiday
WEEKS AHEAD:
07/27—28 FOMC Meets
08/03 RBA FPC Meets
08/05 BoE FPC Meets
08/18 RBNZ FPC Meets
Aug. 25—28 K.C. Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
EARNINGS: (We cover only the major money-center banks, the largest regionals (and regular takeover targets named by analysts), and major foreign banks traded in the US. If your interest in financials is deeper, then this is a good week for you to consult another site, since there are dozens of banks we’re not listing in the Earnings Calendar this week. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless integral to the ticker, which rarely happens. Thursday, The Gorman-Rupp Co (GRC) is Gorman-Rupp to us, Just as The Travelers, Tuesday, is Travelers. A lower case ticker followed by 3 question marks indicates a ticker we see on multiple Earnings Calendars but that we couldn’t confirm at the company’s IR site. Sometimes we’re blocked because we refuse to OK all cookies, other times there’s a language issue, while sometimes companies give no heads up. If the date is not confirmed by the Thursday prior to the week covered, by noon, we can’t confirm them though with the listing acknowledge the timing fits historical reports. We embolden those tickers we expect to attract the most attention. That’s totally subjective and you’re free to disagree, though this week we highlighted a wide swath of reports, since it’s representative of the breadth of reports across the economy.)
MONDAY, 07/19: AN, BLDR, CALM, cit???, CCK, ELS, FNB, IBM, JBHT, PPG, PLD, STLD, TSCO, ZION
TUESDAY, 07/20: AIR, ALLY, AGR, BMI, CNI, CMG, CFG, DOV, FOR, GATX, HAL, HCA, hcci????, IBKR, ISRG, IRDM, KEY, MAN, NFLX, nvr???, OMC, PM, PZN, XM, RXN, RUSHA, SBNY, SI, SNBR, SYF, SNV, TRV, UBS, UAL
WEDNESDAY, 07/21: srce???, ANTM, AFI, asln???, ASML, BKR, BANR, BEDU, cve???, KO, CNS, CMA, CVLG, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, FR, FCFS, GL, GGG, HOG, HCSG, ICLR, IPG, JNJ, KALU, KMI, KNX, LSTR, LVS, LAD, MTB, MKTX, MC, NDAQ, NTGR, NTRS, NVS, OMF, PLXS, RGP, REXR, RLI, RCI, SAP, sgms???, STX, SEIC, SLG, SLM, STC, FTI, THC, TCBI, TXN, TZOO, UFPI, UMPQ, USAP, VMI, VZ, WHR, wrld???
THURSDAY, 07/22: ABB, ABT, ACU, ALK, ALLE, PINE, AAL, AEP, T, ARR, OZK, WRB, BIIB, BX, SAM, BCO, COF, CSL, cri???, CE, GTLS, CLFD, CLF, CROX, DHI, DHR, TACO, BOOM, DPZ, DOW, FITB, FCX, GPC, GRC, HRI, HFWA, HTH, IIIN, INTC, HZO, MMC, MMLP, MOG.A, NURO, NEM, NUE, PSTV, POOL, BPOP, PDS, DGX, RS, RNR, RHI, SAFE, SGLB, SKX, SNAP, SNA, SON, LUV, SIVB, TPH, TRN, TWTR, UNP, USX, VRSN, VICR, WSO
FRIDAY, 07/23: AIMC, AXP, GNTX, HON, KMB, loop?, NEE, NEP, RF, ROP, SLB, SXT, VNE
EVENTS: ("V-" =Virtual; "D-" + Digital)
SUNDAY, 07/18
World Council of Credit Unions V-Conference (thru 21st)
35th Nat’l V-Conf on Gambling Addiction & Responsible Gambling (thru 22nd)
108th Anniversary National Dental V-Ass’n Annual (thru 19th)
AGD General Dentistry (Las Vegas NV)
Society for Consumer Psychology: How Scarcity, Luxury & Inequality Impact Consumer Behavior (Virtual, thru 20th)
119t Nat’l Medical Ass’n V-Annual Transcending COVID-19 to a Healthier Black America (thru 20th)
Swim Week (Orlando FL)
Transworld Jewelry, Fashion & Accessories Show (Rosemont IL)
NARUC Utilities Regulatory Commissioners Summer Policy Summit (Hybrid/Denver CO thru 21st)
ISTH Int’l Society on Thrombosis & Haemostasis V-Conference (thru 21st)
IAS Int’l AIDS Society Conference on HIV Science (Berlin Germany thru 21st)
BbWorld (BLKB)+V-DevCon
How did EA launch weekend of 2021 FIA Formula One World Championship sell?
MONDAY, 07/19
GDC Game Developers Conference (San Francisco CA thru 22nd)
19th Mobile Marketing CEO/CMO V-Forum (thru 20th)
ANA Digital & Social Media Conference (Hybrid/Carlsbad CA thru 21st)
Affiliate Summit East (NY thru 20th)
SEMI EHS & No. Am. Standards, Information & Control Summer V-Meetings (thru 23rd)
OSA Digital Holography & 3D Imaging V-Conference (thru 22nd)
IMN 9th Single Family Rental V-forum East (thru 21st)
ISC (property security) West (Las Vegas thru 21st)
V-Semi-Annual NRG Gynecologic Oncology Group (thru 20th)
L Brands (LB) Bath & Body Works (BBWI "wi" as of 07/22) Spin-off Conference call (8:30am edt)
L Brands (LB) Victoria’s Secret (VSCO "wi" as of 07/22) Spin-off Conference call (12:30pm edt)
nVidia (NVDA) 4:1 Stock Split Effective On Close
Origin Materials (ORGN) 'Fireside chat" w/Stephens clients
Porch (PRCH) InsurTech Intro w/Stephens clients
TUESDAY, 07/20:
ITE Transportation Engineers (Virtual thru 08/05)
CompTIA Partner V-Summit (thru 22nd)
NAMA Nat’l Agri-Marketing Ass’n (Kansas City MO thru 22nd)
Gartner Tech Growth & Innovation V-Conference (thru 21st)
Interphex New York (thru 22nd)
20th World Gastroenterologists’ V-Summit (thru 21st)
ICAST & IFTS Sportfishing (Orlando FL thru 23rd)
AWFS: Woodwork & Furnishings Supplies (Las Vegas thru 22nd)
Int’l Toy Fair (Nuremberg Germany thru 24th)
SEMICON SEA Southeast Asia (Nanjing China thru 23rd)
SAE Automotive Computing & Communications Conference (Shanghai China thru 22
Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin follows Branson into Space with 3 guests
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) V-NDR w/B Riley Clients
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) conference call w/Stephens clients
Genesco (GCO) Shareholder V-Meeting, execs under fire from activists
nVidia (NVDA) starts trading split 4:1 at today’s open
WEDNESDAY, 07/21
Build Expo (Atlanta GA thru 22nd)
40th PMA Produce Marketing Ass’n FoodService Conference (Monterey CA thru 22nd)
ANA Master of B2B Marketing Conference (Hybrid Phoenix AZ thru 23rd)
ASCII SMB IT Success Summit (Multiple Cities thru 22nd)
Int’l Congress of Mucosal Immunology Course & Symposium (Seattle WA thru 25th)
EFFAS European Federation of Financial Analyst Societies CANCELED Summer School
Moderna Inc (MRNA) replacing Alexion Pharmaceuticals in the S&P 500
US Banxorp (USB) post-2Q21 Conference Call w/Stephens clients
21st Independent Games Festival in affiliation with GDC (virtual thru 23rd)
THURSDAY, 07/22
ChannelNext Everything Cloud—Top 10 SaaS V-Showcase
ANHS 10th Head & Neck Society @Otolaryngology Society (Chicago IL thru 25th)
5th 360|V-AnDev (V-Android Developers thru 23rd)
Comic-Con Int’l San Diego @Home (virtual thru 25th)
FRIDAY, 07/23
ICCFA Cemetery, Funeral & Cremation Home University (Atlanta GA thru 28th)
2020 Olympics Open from Tokyo, broadcast on NBC-TV (CMCSA) & related channels
FILMS OPENING: "Old," written & directed by N. Night Shyamalan, w/Cael Garcia Bernal, Vicky Krieps, Rufus Sewell, based on the graphic novel "Sandcastle," by Peter Oscar Levy and artist Frederik Peeters, via Universal Pictures (CMCSA). "Snake Eyes," w/Henri Golding as a superhero spun out of G.I.Joe, Samara Weaving, Andrew Koji, based on Hasbro (HAS) characters, via Paramount Pictures (VIAC) & Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (which AMZN bid for, awaiting regulatory approval). "Joe Bell," w/Mark Wahlberg, Connie Britton, Gary Sinise, Morgan Lilly, based on a true story of a father who walked across the US to bring attention to school bullies, via Roadside Attractions (LGF.A). "How It Ends," w/Zoe Lister-Jones, Cailee Speeny, Whitney Cummings, Bradley Whitford, Olivia Wilde, Colin Hanks (mostly cameos), also MGM, acquired at Sundance. "Midnight in the Switchgrass," w/Emile Hirsch, Megan Fox, Bruce Willis, Lukas Haas, via Highland Film Group. Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime video promises "Jolt," w/Stanley Tucci, Jai Courtney, Kate Beckinsale, Susan Sarandan, and Bobby Cannavale. Netflix (NFLX) debuts "The Last Letter from Your Lover," w/Felicity Jones, Shailene Woodley, and Callum Turner, based on a novel of the same name, written by Jojo Moyes.
SATURDAY, 07/24
ASPA Plastic Surgery V-Boot Camp (thru 25th) EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2021 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2021 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.