What You missed LAST Week:
A WEEK THAT WILL PROVE NOTHING
November 23—27, 2020 Because Markets are closed Thursday, for Thanksgiving, and trade an abbreviated session on Friday—Black Friday, the first real one to follow a holiday during which most brick & mortar stores will be closed for the first time in over 10 years, the week will end Wednesday morning, for all intents and purposes. Thanksgiving, thrown to the shopping gods for years will finally be a holiday for everyone but first responders and hospital workers. Therefore, we thank them.
While much of the ECB is out and about, talking up a storm, stateside it’s mostly housing data that will command attention. Tuesday, both the FHFA & S&P-Case/Shiller Sept 20-city Home Price Indices are released. Granted NY Fed CEO/Pres. John Williams will be speaking Tuesday, as will Fed V.Chairman Clarida, at a V-Conference who's subject is "Lower for Loinger," though Clarida, specifically, will discuss the Fed’s new 2.0% Framework. He'll be joined by Bk of Canada Deputy Gov. Wilkins and the ECB’s Lane at an IMF video event. Wednesday Oct New Home Sales are on tap, along with Oct Personal Income & Spending, and the PCE derived from that data. Wednesday will wrap with the Minutes of the FOMC Nov 04—05 meeting, at 2pm, by which time you might be tempted to slap your screens to wake them up but, in truth, they’ll be up—reflecting a really quiet market that finished up before you did.
The Earnings Calendar is filled with Retailers with a few very notable exceptions. First up lab company Agilent, and sensor chip provider Ambarella, plus Korn Ferry, the executive search firm, reporting Monday. Tuesday, note Analog Devices, Dell, Hormel, Hewlett-Packard, JM Smucker, Medtronic, and VMware. Then, John Deere is Wednesday. Otherwise, the highlighted names are all retailers, including Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, Best Buy, Burlington Coat Factory, Chico’s Fas, Dicks Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Movado, Nordstrom, and Tiffany, the latter put on sale to get the. Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey buyout back on track. Whether the revised deal will prove worth it remains to be seen but one thing is certain—Donald J Trump deciding Palm Beach will be his new permanent residence (Florida has no personal income taxes), probably pleases Tiffany and its intended, because it means 5th Avenue in NY will see fewer days of barricades that, as a side effect, block entry into Tiffany’s world renown flagship store just 2 blocks south of Trump Tower. And trust me, NY state & city are very diligent about making sure those disclaiming NY as their primary residence really mean it. Stay in NY for 181 days, and you’ll be slapped will a fat lawsuit for current and back taxes.
Normally, the only events taking place this week would be overseas but, now that all conferences, forums & seminars are virtually held, where they were originally scheduled to occur no longer matters., A video Conference (or, now, v-Conference) is a V-Conference no matter where it was supposed to take place. That’s how both the Citi European Financial C-Suite & Credit Suisse European Financials Disruption events wound up listed together Monday. I’m partial, especially, to Deutsche Bank’s Business Services, Leisure & Transport V-Conference and Credit Suisse’s Specialty Chemicals V-Conference, both starting Tuesday, and both topics of great interest as vaccines for COVID-19 are poised for near-term Emergency Use Authorization as soon as Dec 10th (Moderna’s mRNA Vaccine a week later).
Even so, it’s a short week, with little of major import beyond housing for market pressure—and we all know the homebuilders have been ebullient—suggesting the home sales-related data will be strong, and not disappoint the way last week’s Oct Retail Sales did, rising only 0.3%. And that is really worth mentioning because it was so disappointing despite Amazon Prime Days held Oct 13—14th, and the competing sales from Walmart, Target & Best Buy lasting anywhere from 4—8 days. Plus, a few major school districts opened their doors later than usual, making the BTS shopping season longer than usual. And still, those Retail Sales numbers were notably weak, and not to be overlooked because they may just suggest a US consumer timid and worried. And with consumer spending 70.0% of GDP, that’s a major worry, given rent & mortgage moratoriums, all of which are plugged into GDP—unless they’re not paid. Been to a dentist lately, to have your teeth cleaned? How about your annual physical? A trip to your internist for a seasonal flu vaccine? See what I mean? There’s plenty consumers are foregoing, at the moment, those tepid Retail Sales exemplifying the hesitance that mut be computed towards GDP. For now, it adds up to several more months of pain and weakness before more vials of vaccines are available for the general public—those among them who'll be willing to take it—and that remains to be seen.
Happy, healthy & delicious Thanksgiving dinner to all—my thanks to Butterball who’s extended its brand to Lil’ Butterballs, so I could buy a 7.45 lb fresh bird for just the two of us! Grab them while you can.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 11/22
G20 V-Summit Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (thru 23rd)
WEF Pioneers of Change V-Summit
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Eurozone, France, Germany Markit flash Nov Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI
UK Markit/CIPS Nov Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI
ECB MPC Schnabel welcome address @ECB Money Markets V-Forum (thru 24th)
ECB’s McCaul panelist @Financial Regulatory Outlook V-Conference
MONDAY, 11/23
BoE Managing Risk from Climate Change (thru 24th)
Chicago Fed Oct National Activity Index
US Markit Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI
NY Fed Exec VP speaks @IIF Emerging Markets Central Banking V-Summit (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $56B 2-year Notes & $51B 6-month Notes
S.F. Fed’s Daly in conversation with Ervin "Magic" Johnson, Mayor K. Bottoms + More
Fed’s Evans discussion w/Abe Tubbs for Iowa Bankers Ass’n Leaders (2pm ct)
Japan Workers Day Holiday
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m., et:
German Q3 GDP, IfO Nov Business Conditions/Expectations
French Q3 GDP, Nov Business & Consumer Confidence
Mexico Oct Unemployment Rate
BoJ Gov Kuroda speaks @IMF/Univ. of Tokyo V-Conference
TUESDAY, 11/24
ECB’s Schnabel speaks @Bk of Finland webinar "New challenges to monetary policy strategies"
ECB Pres Lagarde V-Roundtable @U.N. Rebirthing the Global Economy to Deliver sustainable Development (15:00 cet)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Sept FHFA House Price Index
S&P-Case/Shiller Sept 20-city House Price Index
Conference Board’s Nov Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed Nov Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $30B reopened 119-day & $30B reopened 42-day Bills
NY Fed’s Wiliams discussion & Q&A w/WSJ Newsmakers Live (noon est)
Fed V.Ch. Clarida (12:45pm et) on "The Federal Reserve’s New Framework," BoC Dpty Gov Wilkins, ECB’s Lane (18:45 cet) & IMF’s Mng Dir Georgieva speak @IMF Conf. on "New Policy Frameworks for a ‘Lower for Longer’ World"
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 2-year FRNS & $56B 7-year Notes
President-Elect V.P. Joe biden to name 1st Cabinet Picks
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
ECB releases Financial Stability Review—Nov 2020
Monetary Developments in the Eurozone Dataset Released
ECB MPC af Jochnick panelist @SAFE Frankfurt V-Conference on "Impact of COVID-19 on bank capitalization & resolution" (11/25 local time)
Mexico Sept Retail Sales
WEDNESDAY, 11/25
MBA weekly US Purchase/Refinance Applications
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US Oct Durable & Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
US Q3 (rev) GDP/CapEx/Household Consumption/PCE
US Q3 Corporate Profits
US Q3 ECI (Employment Cost Index)
US Oct Trade Balance
US Oct Wholesale & Retail Inventories
U.M. Final Nov Consumer Sentiment/Expectations
US Oct New Home Sales
US Oct Personal Income/Spending PCE
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am et; w/e 11/13)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (values not announced at post)
FOMC Minutes of Nov 04—05 Meeting (2pm et)
OVERNIGHT into Thurs. a.m. et:
South Korea Nov Interest Rate Decision
Riksbank (Sweden) Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report, Oct Lending
ECB Oct Loans to Companies & Householders, M3 Money Supply
UK Car Production
ECB publishes Account of MPC Meeting 10/28—29/2020 (13:30 cet)
THURSDAY, 11/26
US Thanksgiving Day Holiday—All US Markets Closed
Mexico Q3 GDP, Sept Economic Activity
Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Brazil Oct Net Payrolls
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
China Oct/YTD Industrial Profits
UK Nov Nationwide Housing Prices
ECB’s Panetta, Bundesbank Pres Weidmann, Banca d’Italia Ggov Visco + More speak @Deutsche Bundesbank V-Conference. "Future Payments in Europe"
Eurozone Nov Industrial/Services/Economic/Consumer Sentiment/Expectations
Mexico Oct Trade Balance
FRIDAY, 11/27
US Equity Markets Close Early—1pm et
US Bond Market closes at 2pm et
Black Friday for Retailers—they day they’re supposed to get into the black for the year
Black Friday postponed in some European Countries until after latest lockdown lifted 12/04
Dept of Commerce-set deadline for ByteDance to sell US TikTok
WEEKS AHEAD: 11/30 OPEC 180th Meeting
12/01 OPEC+ Meets
Chicago FRB Midwest Ag & Shifting Consumer Preserences
Evening with the (Richmond) Fed Education & Entrepreneurship
12/03 Richmond Fed V-Seminar on Climate Economics
S.F. Fed Carbon Pricing, Revenue, Recycling & Leakage….
12/10—12 Philly FRB Conf on Urban & Regional Economics (CUBE)
12/15—16 FOMC Meets
EARNINGS: (We ignore "The" in a corporate name unless it’s integral to the ticker, which rarely happens We alphabetize those company names as if "the" didn’t exist, unless it’s integral to the ticker. In most cases, it’s not. Lower case tickers followed by 3 question marks are those we checked and still can’t confirm—EV’s 11/17 Press Release about the date wouldn’t open, no matter what we tried. Sometimes it’s because we decline cookies, other times because we didn’t find the English version of foreign language sites, or they weren’t confirmed by our cut-off--Thursday, 11/12, noon et. Emboldened tickers are those we expect to attract the most attention—even when we can’t imagine why. This week, Retailers dominate, again, with a few big tech companies. )
MONDAY, 11/23: A, AMBA, ARWR, BZUN, CBT CANG, CENT, dl???, COE, DQ, MSP, DSX, ENTA, GSM, GWGH, HMI, JP, KFY, LEJU, MNR, NM, NIU, NTNX, ONE, ruhn???, TNP, TWST, URBN, VTRU, WMG
TUESDAY, 11/24: VNET, ANF, AEO, amwd???, ADI, plan???, ADSK, BBY, BURL, CMCM, CHS, CBPO, DELL, DKS, DLTR, DY, ESLT, FANH, GPS, glng???, gmlp???, ges???, HRL, HPQ, IMBI, SJM, J, LX, MDT, MOV, JWN, PGR, PSTG, qada???, ravn?"??, TIF, TITN, VMW
WEDNESDAY, 11/25: JG, DOOO, DE, FRO, SY, TIGR, VIOT
THURSDAY, 11/26: ev???, LAIX , YRD, YJ
US Thanksgiving Day Holiday
FRIDAY, 11/27: DAKT , NTZ
EVENTS: (‘V-‘ =Virtual; ‘D-’ = Digital)
SUNDAY, 11/22
AHS Headache V-Symposium
19th Am. Society of Regional Anesthesia & Pain Medicine V-Meeting
AVMA Animal Welfare Assessment V-Meeting
ESMO Asia Society of Medical Oncology V-Meeting
The Aesthetic Show—Where Science Meets Beauty V-Forum (thru 23rd)
ACTE-the former Global Travel Executives Ass’n DISBANDED
AMA American Music Awards ABC-TV (DIS), Taraji B Henson hosts
MONDAY, 11/23
14th Edition of Int’l Conference on Infectious Diseases V-Week (thru 24th)
Jefferies Truck V-Summit
Citi European Financial C-Suite V-Conference (thru 27th)
Credit Suisse European Financials Disruption—Expert V-Views
CanaccordGenuity Health & Wellness V-Day
Finovate West Digital –Tomorrow’s Solutions for Today’s Challenges (thru 25th)
ANA How Brands are Embracing V- & Hybrid Events to keep Customers Engaged
UBS Asia Energy, Utilities & Materials V-Conference
Itau BBA’s 13th LatAm CEO V-Conference
Activision (ATVI) releases ‘World of Warcraft’ Expansion Pack
Forte (FBRX) V-NDR w/B Riley
ScanSource (SCSC) speaking with Northcoast Research clients
48th Int’l Emmy Awards (11am et, Univision)
TUESDAY, 11/24
Deutsche Bank dbAccess Business Services, Leisure & Transport V-Conference
Credit Suisse Specialty Chemicals V-Conference
RBC Capital SmallCap Conference (Toronto CDA)
Jefferies Offshore Wind V-Summit
TU-Automotive Europe Hybrid-Live/On-Demand (thru 26th)
ING Benelux V-Conference
Kempen’s 17th London V-Conference
Reuters Future of Insurance Europe V-Event (thru 25th)
Citi Japan Executive V-Summit (thru 25th)
IDEAS Shaping the Post-COVID-19 World V-Symposium
Acella (AXLA) 1-1 V-call
General Mill (GIS) V-NDR w/Strategas
Motorola Solutions (MSI) V-travel with Northcoast Research
Netflix (NFLX) streams "Hillbilly Ellegy," with Glen Close & Amy Adams, directed by Ron Howard, who produced with his pal Rob Grazer, which Rotten Tomatoes panned viciously. It opened in Theaters 11/11.
WEDNESDAY, 11/25
RBC Capital Energy Transition Series Pt 3: Role of Renewable Fuels V-Summit
INTERPHEX BIO Forum & Pharma, Cosmetics & Detergent Materials (Hybrid Tokyo thru 27th)
NCAA (College) Basketball Returns
FILM OPENING Dreamworks (CMCSA) animated "The Croods: A New Age," w/voices of Emma Stone, Ryan Reynolds, Nicolas Cage, Leslie Mann. Cloris Leachman. "Last Call," in limited release in theaters because its been streaming since 10/27, distributed by Eagle Films + Showtime Networks (VIAC).
THURSDAY, 11/26
US Thanksgiving Day Holiday—Modified Macy’s (M) Thanksgiving Day Parade
The Gold & Alternative Investments V-Congress
Berenberg Real Estate Paris V-Seminar
AIRA AustralAsian IR V-Conference & Awards
Shinhan Securities Super Corporate V-Day
US Retail Bricks + Mortar Stores mostly CLOSED
FRIDAY, 11/27
Black Friday for Retailers—the 1st Real One in Over a Decade
Macquarie Waste V-Forum
ESMO V- Perceptorship on Metastatic Bladder & Kidney Cancer (thru 28th)
FILMS OPENING where theaters are open: "Zappa," a biopic with Frank Zappa, Steve Vai, Gail Zappa, distributed by Magnolia Pictures, a partnership of Mark Cuban & his buddy Ty Wagner. "Dutch," the first of a planned trilogy about a NJ mobster and the AG determined to take him down had nothing available on it, as of our research. "A Christmas Carol," an animated retelling of the Charles Dickens’ classic story w/voices of Carey Mulligan, Martin Freeman, Andy Serkis, postponed until 12/04, in theaters, only.
SATURDAY, 11/28
ESTRO/IASLC V-Congress on Lung Cancer (thru 30th)
ESTRO 39 Radiation Oncologists VIRTUAL (thru 12/01) EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2020 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2020 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.