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What You missed LAST Week:  

                                              EARNINGS DOMINATE EVEN IF MONEY-CENTER BANKS ARE DONE

October 18—22, 2021 THE ECB & FOMC members are out in force, this week, which understates the situation, given that the IMF & World Bank Group host their joint member meeting this week. And it that weren’t enough, note speakers at the Bund Summit, Oct 22nd—24th, besides NY Fed CEO John Williams and Jean-Claude Trichet, who round out a stellar cast that includes Robert Rubin, Jason Furman, Jim O’Neill, Adam Posen, Joseph Stiglitz (Nobel Laureate’s last name in CAPS, though not Nobel Laureate Michael Spence of Stanford U), Lord Adair Turner (last name also in caps).

Besides the speakers, all notable, the US offers the NAHB Oct Housing Market Index, Monday, US Sept Housing Starts & Building Permits, Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book Wednesday, at 2pm, and Realtors’ September Existing home Sales & Prices, Friday. Sprinkled within, more Fed speakers, regional Fed organized virtual conferences, one of the biggest of which is gthe 2021 Community Bankers Symposium, Banking on the Future, which will be closed by FDIC’s Jelena McWilliams, after Chicago Fed CEO Evans opens it, while Fed Gov Bowman keynotes. That’s a lot of Fed & ECB speakers around the beltway.

The Earnings Calendar is another story, altogether, because we could have emboldened almost every tickers (and nearly did), without argument, We were more restrained than that but it took a lot to ignore some tickers that tempted. And no, still recovering from our loss last week, we did not check every ticker to verify it’s reporting, so you’re somewhat on your own, this week. Still, we checked many of them, and believe the calendar as presented is a fair representation.

Which brings us to the Events Calendar, trimmed by COVID rescheduling, as well as those events pushed out of the way of the heavy Earnings Calendar. Time was, many events were scheduled t coincide with the IMF/World Bank Group joint membership meeting but that was an event not scheduled as early as it usually is, because no one knew if it would be virtual or in-person, when the time came. It’s just coincidence, as well, that the Council of Supply chain Pros’ EDGE Annual Technical Conference is scheduled in 2 US cities this week—Atlanta GA & somewhere in Southern California., starting Wednesday. We’ll note that almost all the I-bank conferences, through the end of the year, were entered onto the master list of conferences, in August & September. Therefore, the most important conferences are posted, and should not have been impacted by the disruption in our schedule, recently.

Now, I have two points to make. Macy*s without its omnichannel eCommerce site is worth nothing. Walk into its stores and, at least, based on nearby ones, there’s nothing there worth buying, and Backstage is just a mess—a place to toss everything no one will buy. Chains like Target & Nordstrom are using their stores as stockrooms, and shipping from there—as they properly should. Macy*s is just a dumpsite, sending out coupons for discounts every 10 days that buy nothing worth spending money on. Jana’s gotta be crazy!

Now, about all the supply chain woes and supposed bare shelves: Sounds like the biggest conspiracy in retail history. What a boon for Ebay and other leading online sellers who’ll find a bonanza of goods getting posted for sale—long before Christmas wrapping appears to hide the gifts. For what it’s worth, if you’re a respected seller on any online sites—go for it! There are going to be parents who’ll pay up to get what’s on their kids’ lists—no matter the costs. That’s what happens when the government sends $1,400 checks to spend.

For what it’s worth—a former retailer’s opinion, and one who wants you to note that the supposed "BIG" Money Poll in Barron’s, this weekend, received, exactly, 124 responses—what kind of BIG Money Poll is that? Watch your step because they’re incredibly bullish, perhaps, just when they should dial it down a little—until later in Earnings Season.

ECONOMIC: ("V-" =Virtual; "D-" =Digital)
SUNDAY, 10/17
ECB Pres. Lagarde
delivers 2021 Per Jacobsson Lecture (IMF website 12:30pm edt)
24th Milken Institute Global Conference Los Angeles CA thru 20th)
Jt IMF/World Bank Group Fall Annual Members Meeting (thru 21st)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
       China NBS Presser: Sept Industrial Production, Retail Sales. Fixed Asset Investment, Q3 GDP
       Canada Sept Housing starts/Building Permits
       Fed Gov Quarles Financial Stability Board @3rd Banco de Espana Conf on Financial Stability (5:30am et)

MONDAY, 10/18
US Sept Industrial/Manufacturing Production/Capacity Utilization
Banking & the Economy: Forum for Minorities @
K.C. Fed (thru 22nd)
K.C.Fed ‘Toward an Inclusive Recovery—Empowering Women’s Participation’ (10am cdt)
NAHB Oct Housing Market Index
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
NYFed Director
Per von Zelowitz on CenBank Innovation @DC FinTech Week (10:30a, edt thru 21st)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $45B 6-month Bills
Fed’s Bostic V-Exploring Careers in Economics (1pm et via FedReserve Board/FedReserve Edu
Fed Gov Bowman ‘Diversity & Economic Recovery’ Biz case for Gender Diversity (1:15pm et)
US Aug TICS
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
      RBA (AUD) Meeting Minutes
      ECB publishes Macroprudential Bulletin
#15 (10 cet)
      ECB’s Elderson keynotes XXXI Lisbon "Climate Change & Climate Finance’ @Banco de Portugal (13:10 cet)
      ECB’s Panetta opens 5th CEBRA/ECB/IFM 5th Int’l Aspects of Digital Currencies & FinTech (14:00 cet; Frankfurt DE thru 21st)

TUESDAY, 10/19
ECB’s Lane panelist:
‘Experiences from central banks’ strategy reviews" @Bk of Finland & SUERF Jt Conf. on ‘Monetary Policy Approaches: A Comparative Appraisal’ (16:00 cet)
US Sept Housing Starts/Building Permits
V-PhilFed’s Harker ‘C3" Cybersecurity, Collaboration & Cooperation (8:30am et)
Redbook US weekly store sales snapshot
US Treasury Auctions $60B reopened 40-day Bills
KCFed’s George
(1pm) ‘Toward an Inclusive Recovery: Understanding & Empowering Women’s Economic Participation’ (via
FedCommunities—Dallas & KC Feds 11am et)
Richmond Fed ‘Business Case for Change: Gender Diversity & Leadership in the Boardroom & C-Suite’ (1pm et webinar)
Fed’s Bostic @AARP/TheHill/Atlanta Fed ‘Back to work: Helping Long-Term Unemployment’ (2pm et)
API weekly crude report
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
       FedReserve V-Teaching Economics in Changing Times: Role of Cognitive Science in Teaching & Learning Economics’ (7pm et)
       ECB’s Elderson @Austrian Financials Market Authority’s Supervisory Conference (9:20 cet)

WEDNESDAY, 10/20
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
BoE FPC Breeden keynotes FinPolicy & Environment’ @MIT 8th GGFP V-Conference
Council of Supply Chain Pro’s EDGE Annual Tech Conference (Atlanta + SoCal thru 22nd)
PhilFed Rural Policy Summit: Health Care (9am et)
Capitalize4Kids (Charity--Canada thru 21st)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report
US Treasury Auctions $24B 20-year Bonds
Fed Pres/CEOs Bostic, Bullard, Daly, Evans, Kashkari rotate speeches
@
MNFed ‘Racism & the Economy: Focus on Wealth Divide’ (noon et)
Fed Gov Quarles "Economic Outlook’ @Milken Institute Global Conf. (webcast 1pm et)
Fed’s Beige Book (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
       Japan Sept Trade Balance
       China PBoC Prime Loan Rate/Sept Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales
       UK Sept CPI/Core CPI, PPI/Core PPI, Sept Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales
       German Sept PPI
       EU Aug Current Account, CPI/Core CPI, HICP

THURSDAY, 10/21
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Fed Gov Waller "US Economy’
@
OMFIF Institutions Forum webcast (9am et)
Canada Sept CPI/Core CPI
NYFed CEO Williams & Jean-Claude Trichet V-moderated discussion @Bund Summit ‘Recovery, Challenges & Sustainability in the Post-Covid Era’ (Shanghai China thru 24th)
KCFed ‘Toward an Inclusive Recovery: Understanding & Empowering Women’s Participation’ (10am cdt)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Builds/Draws/Stockpiles (10:30am et)
V-Seminar on ‘Climate Economics: Crossroads Between 2 Ultimate Externalities’ (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 5-year TIPS
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
       New Zealand Sept Credit Card Spending
       RBA Gov Lowe speaks
       AUD Sept Manufacturing/Services PMI
       Japan Sept Tokyo/National CPI/Core CPI (each), Oct Manufacturing/Services PMI
       Singapore Q3 URA Property Index
       UK Sept Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales
       EU, French, German, Italian Oct Mftg/Services/Composite PMI
       German GfK Nov Consumer Sentiment
       Russia Oct Interest Rate Decision, CBR Press Conference
       approximate: 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress?

FRIDAY, 10/22
Philly Fed Oct Manufacturing Index/CapEx/Employment/Orders/Prices
DallasFed 15th Economic Scholars Program V-Conference
NAR Sept Existing Home Sales/Prices
US IHS Markit (prelim) Oct Manufacturing/services/Composite PMI
ChicoFed’s Evans
on ‘Eco Outlook;’ Fed Gov Bowman keynotes ‘2021 Community Bankers Symposium: Banking on the Future’ & FDIC Chair McWilliams closes event
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No.Am. Total/Oil Rig Count (1pm et)

    WEEKS AHEAD:
        10/27   Bk of Canada Meets
        10/28   Bk of Japan Meets
        11/02   RBA (AUD) Meets
   11/02--03 FOMC Meets
         11/03  FOMC post-Meeting Statement Released
(2pm et)
                   FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference
(2:30pm et)
         11/04  Norges Bank (Norway) Meets
                   Bank of England Meets
         11/11  Banco de Mexico Meets
         11/24  RBNZ (New Zealand) CenBank Meets
   12/14--15  FOMC Meets

EARNINGS: (We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless integral to the ticker. It rarely is, and is for Monday’s (The) Container Stores (TCS) but not for The Boston Beer Co Inc (SAM) on Thursday. We cover only the biggest money-center banks, largest regioinals, and biggest foreign banks listed here, or as ADRs traded here. Looking for more? We’re not for you. We usually check every ticker to affirm its report is coming but didn’t this week—as arrangements had to be made after a death in the family, last weekend. Please confirm any reports you’re interested in, since we probably didn’t.)

MONDAY, 10/18: ACI, amx???, ctg???, tcs???, ELS, HXL, PHG, md???, nvr???, STT, STLD, ter???, ZION

TUESDAY, 10/19: acad???, arr???, axta???, BK, bhe???, cni???, DOV, FITB, HAL, HWC, hcsg???, iclr???, IBKR, ISRG, IRDM, JNJ, KSU, LRCX, lvs???, MAN, MRTN, NFLX, ntgr???, OMC, PM, PG, PZN, SBNY, stc???, LRN, SYF, SNV, tdy???, eric???, TRV, UFPI, UAL, WDFC

WEDNESDAY, 10/20: ABT, ab???, ANTM, aqms???, asm:???, BKR, BANR, BIIB, CP, CFG, CNS,, CMA, CVLG, CCI, CSX, DFS, ehth???, EFX, FCFS, GL, GGG, tv???, HLX, HCCI, IBM, KALU, KM, KNX, LSTR, LAD, MTB, MKTX, MMLP, MSM, NDAQ, NEE, NEP, nxgn???, NTRS, BPOP, PPG, XMM, REXR, RLI, rhi???, RUSHA, SEIC, SLG, sglb???, SLM, SCL, STRT, FTI, THC, TSLA, TZOO, USAP, VMI, VNE, VZ, WSO, wst???, WGO, wrld???, zdge???

THURSDAY, 10/21: SRCE, abb???, ALK, ALLE, ALLY, AAL, T, AN, OZK, BRJI, BCS, BX, SAM, CSL, cri???, CE, GTLS, CMG, CROX, DHR, BOOM, DOW, EEFT, FCX, GATX, GPC, GRC, GBX, HRI, HFWA, IIIN, INTC, IPG, IQV, KEY, LNN, MMC, MAT, NUE, OLN, POOL, pds???, PSMT, DGX, rci???, SAFE, SCHN, sIfy???, SNAP, SNA, SCKT, SON, LUV, SIVB, TSCO, TPH, TRN, trtn???, UNP, USX, VLO, VICR, WHR

FRIDAY, 10/22: AIMC, AXP, ALV, CLF, DSKE, GNTX, HCA, HON, MNR, RF, ROP, SLB, STX, SMPL, VFC

EVENTS: ("V-"=Virtual; "D-"=Digital)
SUNDAY, 10/17
ABA Am. Bankers Ass’n
Annual Conference (Tampa FL thru 19th)
SNAC Int’l Executive Leadership Forum (Marco Island FL thru 19th)
ACerS 123rd Annual Mtg at Materials
Science & Technology (Columbus OH thru 21st)
ANA 146th Annual Int’l V-Symposium of Cannabinoid Research Society (thru 19th)
ASRM Am. Society for Reproductive Medicine Scientific Congress (Hybrid Baltimore MD thru 21st)
SnowMobile USA (Milwaukee WI)
ASCP Society of Clinical Psychopharmacology Fall V-Meeting
Las Vegas International Film Festival
Miami Dolphins vs JAX (Jacksonville) Jaguars (9:30am edt, Tottenham, UK, CBS [VIAC])

MONDAY, 10/18
JPMorgan 3rd Media & Communications Industry Panel Forum (NY thru 19th)
Credit Suisse 10th Real Estate CEO V-Conference
HSBC Future Consumer V-Week (thru 22nd)
MedTrade East (Atlanta GA thru 20th)
IMPACT Smart Manufacturing & R&D V-Summit—SCOPE Procurement (thru 22nd)
SPIE V-OptiFab (thru 21st)
InnoCos Int;l Beauty Innovation Summit/Cosmetic Manufacturers/Distributors (Santa Monica CA thru 19th)
29th NASPP Stock Plan Professionals (Hybrid+OnDemand)
NDIA Future Force Capabilities Conference/Expo (Columbus GA thru 21st)
Apple Inc (AAPL) Launch event, 4pm pdt)

TUESDAY, 10/19
Berenberg Pan-European Discovery USA V-Conference (thru 20th)
Bernstein EU Airlines: State of the Sector Update webinar
Air & Waste Management Ass’n MEGA Symposium (Indianapolis IN thru 20th)
PEI Private Equity Int’l Operating Partners Forum (NY thru 21st)
ShopTalk Fall V-MeetUp (thru 21st)
Interphex (Pharma & MedDevice Manufacturing (NY thru 21st)
EASTEC (W. Springfield MA thru 21st)
WWD Sourcing Summit Inflection Point (NY)
IAPP Privacy, Security, Risk Summit (San Diego CA thru 22nd)
ESGCT European Society of Advanced Cell Therapies & Tissue Engineering (Brussels Belgium thru 22nd)
Best Buy (BBY) Launches Black Friday Deals Today

WEDNESDAY, 10/20
Council of Supply Chain Pro’s EDGE Annual Tech
Conference (Atlanta + SoCal thru 22nd)
WEEC World Energy Engineering V-Conference (thru 22nd)
Electronics, Software & Hardware Integration for NextGen Vehicles (virtual – EDT)
World Drug Safety Congress (Boston MA thru 21st)
RE-WORK NY A.I. in Banking V-event
RE-WORK Conversational A.I. in Retail V-Summit
Cain Brothers Healthcare Conference (NY thru 21st)
World Business Forum (NY thru 21st)
FDA General & Plastic Surgery Devices Panel of MedDevices V-AdCom

THURSDAY, 10/21
National Hardware Show
(Las Vegas thru 23rd)
Oxford Global Biomarkers Series US (San Diego CA thu 22nd)
Glaucoma Innovation V-Showcase
BINC BetterInvesting National Convention (Dallas TX thru 24th)
European MidCap D-Event (thru 22nd)

FRIDAY, 10/22
VidCon Now
(Anaheim CA, unless service workers strike thru 24th)
11th World Itch V-Congress (thru 23rd)
FEDA Foodservice Equipment Distributors (Milan IT thru 26th)
EA launches "Battlefield 2042" video game—unless delayed again
FILMS OPENING: "Dune," w/Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Rerguson, Zendaya, Oscar Isaac, in another adaptation of Frank Herbert’s SciFi novel, via Warner Bros (T) & HBO MAX. "The French Dispatch," w/Lea Seydoux, Timothee Chalamet, Christoph Waltz, Owen Wilson, a collection of stores published in "The French Dispatch Magazine," a Wes Anderson film purchased by Fox Searchlight (DIS). "Ron’s Gone Wrong," the story of Barney & his friend Ron, a digitally-connected device that malfunctions against the backdrop of the social media age that launches them on a journey to learn about true friendship—the clip says, with voices of Jack Dylan Glazer, Zach Galifianadkis, Ed Helms, Olivia Colman, via 20th Century Studios (DIS). "Broadcast Signal Intrusion," w/Henry Shum Jr, Kelley Mack, Chris Sullivan, Anthony E. Cabral, at the 57th Chicago Film Festival as we type, via MPI Media Group. "Warning," w/Pagtrick Schwarzenegger, Alex Pettyfer, Agata Alexander, Rupert Everett, in limited release, via Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF.A).

SATURDAY, 10/23
InfoComm Connected
(Orlando FL thru 29th)   PRIOR OUTLOOK HERE

Sandi Lynne 2021 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

                                                                           Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,

Regards
  Sandi Lynne

       (c) 1998--2021 Sandi Lynne