What You missed LAST Week
What You missed LAST Week
FIRST
REAL WEEK of the NEW YEAR
January 6—10, 2020 It’s the first full week of the New Year, and it’ll
start with a bit of a bang. Central bankers are speakers, and the first of December sales
news will be released Wednesday, the 8th, at 4:15pm et, by Costco, more on the
9th, as those retailers who still report sales monthly release Dec sales, too.
Also, Wednesday, Bed Bath & Beyond reports its quarter, comments on December sales
sure to arrive, then, too. Also Wednesday, Constellation Brands reports its quarter,
comments on December sales sure to accompany the release, even as Walgreens Boots Alliance
reports, Wednesday, as well, Barron’s particularly negative on its results, which
surprises me a little. CVS gave up selling cigarettes a few years ago, leaving that kind
of walk-in business to WBA, alone, in most of the drugstore world. Yes, supermarkets &
Walmart, for one, still peddles cigarettes but for parking convenience, few offer the
close-in spots available at drug stores.
Now, to those Central Bankers mentioned, we start with NY FRB Pres/CEO John Williams, a
panelist, as I type, at the AEA/ASSA Annual Winter Meeting in San Diego. AEA is the
Association Economists, ASSA the Association of all Economic/Social Societies, of which
there are 11, if I recall, off hand. Other panelists appearing wit him include the
BoE’s Broadbent, the ECB’s Lane, the BoJ’s Wakatabe, and the Bk of
Canada’s Dpty Gov, Wilkins. Their topic is "Monetary Policy Frameworks in a
World of Low Interest Rates." Earlier in the day, at the same meeting, a panel of
past Central Bankers that includes Janet Yellen, Olivier Blanchard, Lawrence Summers
(technically, a Treasury official, not a central banker), and Adam Posen dicusses
"Japanification, Secular Stagnation & Fiscal & Monetary Policy Challenges,:
also at AEA/ASSA Annual. At 10:15am pst, there’s a 3-session discussion of FOMC
transcripts, and what can be learned from them—whether Central Bankers can be taken
at their word. While the vast majority of speakers are academics, in addition to the
Central Bankers, there’s a smattering of corporate economists, not just from the
obvious, financials, but from corporates like Microsoft & Caterpillar, all of whom
have to form an economic forecast to direct their companies’ future.
As is typical of the first full week of a month, the week will be full of all kinds of
data, Treasury Auctions, and culminate in Friday’s December Unemployment Report..
While much of the rest of the week’s data is for November, it might be more
instructive than usual, if the end of the GM strike caused a surge in orders, not just at
US factories but Mexico’s too. And we haven’t heard the last of the Central
Bankers, either, once AEA/ASSA ends. On Wednesday, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard will discuss
"Modernizing the Community Reinvestment Act," at the Urban Institute, while in
the early hours of Thursday, BoE’s soon to be leaving Governor, Carney, will open
"The Future of Inflation Targeting," a conference at the BoE whose URL was not
to be found but which will host NY FRB Pres./CEO Williams, on Inflation Targeting. Also
Thursday, Fed V. Chair Clarida will discuss "U.S. Economic Outlook & Monetary
Policy," at the Council of Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on
International Economics, in NY, even as the Bk of Canada will wrap its first monetary
policy meeting of the year, with release of a statement and Poloz’s press conference.
Later on the same day, St Louis Fed’s Bullard speaks to the Wisconsin Bankers
Association Economic Forecast Luncheon, an event he attends almost every year.
Of course, the December Unemployment Report will decide the fate of the markets, for
Friday, at the least. Of course, results from Lennar on Wednesday, and KB Homes on
Thursday, will also trigger pencil sharpening by economics, with rates, again, scrapping
very attractive lows. The last Earnings Reporter who should pay attention to is Synnex,
because it’s one of the largest VARs—Value-Added-Reseller, whose business is a
good read on corporate spending on technology.
If you follow consumer tech stocks, it’s the Consumer Electronics Show, in Las Vegas,
opening the 7th, that makes you week. Samsung’s keynote at CES, on the 6th,
will delivered by H.S Kim, who’ll discuss where consumers are headed, and the
blending of physical and digital worlds---what Kim refers to in a blog as the "Age of Experience." Time was, Microsoft was the
annual keynote but, now, like Apple, it doesn’t even purchase exhibit space, which is
not to say it will be completely absent. On the contrary, it will have hotel suites to
receive analysts, who’ll be at CES in droves, as the Events Calendar makes clear. The
number of events listed "@CES" are numerous, and include not just consumer
technology but autos, too, JPMorgan hosting an Auto/Tech Forum @CES, and Citi a Global TMT
West Conference, at CES. Likewise, the SAE—Society of Automotive Engineers—are
hosting Connect2Car at CES. Facebook & Instagram plan a briefing at CES, while Intel
is one of the other keynotes, and is holding a press conference, at CES, while its
Mobileye division is, also, hosting a CES press Conference, both of them on Tuesday. Other
concurrent events, at CES, beyond the many I-bank "hosted meetings" and
exhibition tours, include Kids @Play, and IDC’s very odd, "Building Next
Generation Tech on a Foundation of Consumer Trust." Excuse me!!!! Where, exactly,
does IDC see consumer trust?
If all that wasn’t enough, the TV Critics Spring Press Tour starts this week, on
Tuesday, at FOX, now a Walt Disney Company. As the week progresses, the TV Critics Spring
Press Tour will look like a nearly all Walt Disney event, thanks to the many Fox division
it picked up with its recent purchase, not to mention its own ABC on Wednesday. Not until
Friday does someone other than Disney entertain the TV Critics, and that day its
PBS—or Public Broadcasting Services, which Trump had, at one time, threatened to stop
funding with government money. Debuting Friday, when "Like a Boss," opens in
movie theaters, the first film to sport the new, combined ViacomCBS logo.
Other big events, otherwise, include Goldman Sach’s Global Energy Conference,
starting Tuesday, and the Credit Suisse 2020 Aircraft Leasing Conference, both starting
Tuesday. Wednesday, CJS Securities’ 20th Annual New Ideas for the New Year
Conference, and ICSC (Shopping Centers) Red River States Conference & Dealmaking
event, in Ft Worth TX. Can’t say I ever knew Texas was a Red River State. I have a
very off color joke about that which I’ll refrain from noting, in deference to good
taste. There’s a Commercial Real Estate Forecast Conference, starting Thursday, when
Raymond James hosts a Deer Valley Telecom Summit, and the Correctional Association hosts
its annual event. For whatever reason, London is where the Beef Industry is hosting its 21st
Annual Convention—London Ontario, Canada, I should specify, as opposed to the London
UK, where Citi is hosting European Insurance, and TD Securities an Energy Conference, even
as Credit Suisse is in Hong Kong for a Greater China Technology & Internet Conference,
wile Jefferies is in the same city for a Consumer Corporate Day 1x1, and Citi a Hong Kong
& China Corporate Day with a Healthcare Theme.
Friday, the Annual ASH (Hematology) Review hits both NYC & Seattle Washington, just 2
out of 10 stops early in the New Year. The American Bus Association Marketplace &
BusWorld Academy take place in Berkshire country—Omaha Nebraska, while Brussels hosts
the European Auto Salon, where overseas automakers are more likely to introduce new models
than they are at any US based auto event. Saturday, East/West Biotech CEO opens in NY,
while Plant & Animal Genome opens in San Diego, and Color Management 20, a PIA/GATF
Conference & Expo opens in San Diego too.
All in, it’s an incredible busy week with the potential for Friday’s Employment
Report to be a landmine for market bulls. Let’s not overlook the fact that retailers
start laying off seasonal help after Christmas, even though physical stores are often
busier with bargain hunters & people toting returns after Christmas, into January. And
it’s only a mere 2 weeks until the next market holiday arrives—the Martin Luther
King Jr holiday, an event the NYSE celebrates by closing while still staying open for
Veteran’s Day—something I have, simply, never understood.
I’ll give full credit to the bulls for shaving Friday’s losses despite
Trump’s bombing Iran, taking out a revered general there, and escalating the
temperature of the US enmity with Arab countries who Trump threw over the side as soon as
he was inaugurated--withdrawing from the nuclear disarmament deal signed by a predecessor.
How long can the bulls pretend there’s nothing to fear from either Iran or Iraq, or a
rogue Muslim zealot? We probably won’t find out until we see retaliation—and
where that occurs. The closer to home, the more unsettling it will be.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below.
Full International Economic Calendar
here)
SUNDAY, 01/05/2020
German Nov Retail Sales
Janet Yellen,, Olivier Blanchard, Lawrence Summers, & Adam Posen panelists on "Japanification,
Secular Stagnation & Fiscal & Monetary Policy Challenges (8am pst @AEA San
Diego CA)
NY Fed Pres/CEO Williams, BoE’s Broadbend, ECB’s Lane, BoJ’s Wakatabe,
BoC’s Wilkins panelists @AEA/ASSA "Monetary Policy Frameworks in a World of
Low Interest Rates" (10:15am pst @AEA/ASSA) Also starting at 10:15am pst, a 3-part
session dissecting FOMC transcripts
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Japan Nikkei Dec Manufacturing PMI, Dec Vehicle
Sales
China Caixin Dec Services/Composite PMI, Fx
Reserves
Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Dec
Services/Composite PMI
UK Dec New Car Registrations
Eurozone Nov PPI
MONDAY, 01/06
US Markit Dec Services/Composite PMI
US Treasury Auctions $43B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et:
Eurozone Dec CPI, Nov Retail Sales
TUESDAY, 01/07
US Nov Trade Balance (8:30am et)
Canada Nov Int’l Merchandise Trade, Ivey Dec PMI
US Dec non-Manufacturing/;Services/Composite ISM (10am et)
US Nov (P) Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
US Nov Factory Orders (a post-GM strike surge?)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
German Nov Factory Orders
Eurozone Dec
Business/Consumer/Economic/Industrial/Services Confidence
ECB’s de Guindos on
"Europe’s role in the global financial system" @Forging a new future
between the UK & EU Conference organized by SUERF & De Nederalndsche Bank
(Amsterdam)
WEDNESDAY, 01/08
US weekly MBA Mortgage/Refinance Applications
ADP Dec Employment Data
Fed Gov Brainard on "Moderning the Community Reinvestment Act" @Urban
Institute (10am et D.C. streamed here)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refinery Report (w/e 01/03; 10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
US Nov Consumer Credit (Debt, really; 3pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
UK BRC Dec Like-for-Like Sales
China Dec CPI, PPI, New Yuan Loans,
Aggregate Financing
Swiss Q4 Family Homes Real Estate
Index, Nov Retail Sales
German Nov Imports/Exports, Current
Account
Mexico Dec CPI
BoE Gov Carney opens "Future of
Inflation Targeting" Conference (BoE, London 16:45 cet)
THURSDAY, 01/09
US Dec Challenger Job-Cuts (7:30am et)
Fed V. Chair Clarida on "U.S. Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy" @Council
on Foreign Relations C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics (NY 8am et)
Canada Dec Housing Starts/Nov Building Permits
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Annual Revision to Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
US Dec Chain Store Sales (8 still report monthly)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 01/03; 10:30am et)
Bk of Canada post-Meeting Statement & Press Conference
NY Fed’s Williams speaks @BoE "Future of Inflation Targeting Conf.
(London 11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et—Values not announced at post)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
Fed’s Bullard speaks @Wisconsin Bankers Ass’n Economic Forecast Luncheon
(Madison WI)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Japan Nov Household Spending
China Dec Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
UK Nov Construction Output, Industrial & Mnftg
Production, Monthly GDP, Trade Balance, Index of Services
Mexico Nov Industrial Production (surge after GM
strike ended?)
FRIDAY, 01/10
US Dec Unemployment Report/Rate/Change/Participation/Wages (8:30am et)
Canada Dec Unemployment Report/Rate/Change/Participation/Wages
US Nov Wholesale Inventories & Trade Sales (10am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et w/e 01/03)
WEEKS AHEAD:
01/15 China’s V. Premier Liu He expected to sign Phase 1 of US/ China Trade
Deal @White House
Fed Releases Beige Book
01/20 Martin Luther King Jr US Holiday/All Markets Closed
01/23 Bk of Japan Meets
01/24 ECB Meets
01/29—30 FOMC Meets
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre-
from post-market releases. This, "???" after a ticker, means we couldn’t
confirm the date, ourselves. Any company that didn’t confirm by Thursday, 01/02/2020,
at noon, is not included. We usually check every IR site for every company supposed to
report but now, frequently, hit a wall because we won’t permission cookies at all of
them. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless integral to the ticker.
Emboldened tickers are those we expect the Street and/or Media to focus on most, or those
we believe will most impact a sector or stock indices, altogether, or a group that’s
dominant during the week. It’s subjective, and you’re free to disagree..)
MONDAY, 01/06: CALM, CMC, SMPL
TUESDAY, 01/07: ANGO, EXFO, NTIC
WEDNESDAY, 01/08: BBBY, STZ, GBX, HELE, jef???, LEN, MSM, RPM, SCHN, UNF, WBA
THURSDAY, 01/09: AYI, AZZ, KBH, LNN, PSMT, rell???, SNX, WDFC
FRIDAY, 01/10: aehr???, anix???, INFY, volt???
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 01/05/2020
AEA/ASSA A. Economic Ass’n & Affiliated Societies Annual (San Diego CA)
IEEE International Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE @CES Las Vegas
NV thru 6th)
AAS 235th Astronomical Society (Honolulu HI thru 8th)
Wizard World/ComicCon (New Orleans LA)
STARTING SUNDAY, 01/05
CES Unveiled (Las Vegas NV)
CES International Press Conferences (Las Vegas thru 7th)
Golden Globes Awards Hollywood Foreign Press (NBC TV—{CMCSA])
Procter & Gamble (PG) Press Conference @CES (2pm pt)
MONDAY, 01/06
Nomura @CES 2020 (Las Vegas thru 7th)
Strategas 9th Annual Macro Conference (D.C. thru 7th)
Digital Hollywood @CES (Las Vegas)
Public Funds Summit (Scottsdale AZ thru 9th)
Software Engineering Institute @Carnegie Mellon FloCon 2020 (Savannah GA thru 9th)
Morgan Stanley China New Economy Summit (Beijing China)
Daiwa P.U.R.E. (Power, Utes, Renewables) Energy Conference (Hong Kong thru 8th)
Daimler AG Chairman, Head of Mercedes-Benz cars, keynotes @CES (8:30pm
pst)
Intel (INTC) Press Conference @CES (4pm pt) :
Samsung Consumer Electronics (SSNLF) CEO Hyun-Suk Kim Keynotes @CES (6:30pm
pst-Las Vegas)
TUESDAY, 01/07
Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference (Miami FL thru 8th)
Credit Suisse 2020 Aircraft Leasing Conference (NY)
JPMorgan Tech/Auto Forum @2020 CES Int’l (Las Vegas)
Citi 2020 Global TMT West Conference (Las Vegas thru 8th)
CES—the Consumer Electronics Show (Las Vegas NV thru 10th)
Citi hosted meetings @CES (Las Vegas)
Raymond James meetings @CES (Las Vegas thru 10th)
B. RileyFBR meetings @CES (Las Vegas)
Wolfe Research hosted meetings @CES (Las Vegas thru 9th)
SAE Connect2Car Symposium @CES (Las Vegas w/F, FCAU, CAR, FB’s Oculus)
Innovation Awards @ShowStoppers @CES (Las Vegas 6pm pt)
RBC Canadian Banks CEO Conference (Toronto ON Canada)
JPMorgan Macro Markets Outlook (London)
Platts 18th Annual Natural Gas Storage Outlook (Houston TX thru 8th)
SEB Nordic Seminar (Copenhagen Denmark thru 9th)
JPMorgan ASEAN & India Banks Forum (Singapore thru 8th)
Jefferies A-Share Corporate Day (Shenzhen China)
CTA CEO Gary Shapiro & EVP Karen Chupka keynote @CES (8:30am pst)
Delta Airlines (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian keynotes @CES (8:30am pt)
Facebook (FB) & Instagram briefing on business prospects in 2020 @CES (Las
Vegas)
Intel (INTC) presents @JPM Auto/Tech Conference @CES (12:25pm pt)
Mobileye (INTC) Media & Customer Conference @CES (11:30am pt Las Vegas)
Pool Corp (POOL) Retail Summit (Orlando FA thru 8th)
Salesforce.com (CRM) co-CEO Marc Benioff, Unilever (UL)
CEO Alan Jope, MediaLink CEO Michael Kassan keynote panel @CES (4pm pt)
Tesla (TSLA) will start delivering the first Shanghai-built Model 3’s (China)
Walt Disney’s (DIS) FOX hosts TV Critics Winter Press Tour
WEDNESDAY, 01/08
CJS Securities 20th Annual New Ideas for the New Year Conference
(NY)
ICSC (Shopping Centers) Red River States Conference/Deal Making (Ft Worth TX thru
10th)
Surf Expo (Orlando FL thru 10th)
Deutsche Bank Nordic Outlook Seminar (Copenhagen, Oslo, Helsinki, Stockholm thru 9th)
Citi Hong Kong & China Corporate (Consumer Theme) Day (Hong Kong)
Credit Suisse 9th Annual Macro Conference (Singapore)
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Stephens-hosted Conference Call (11am et)
Comcast's (CMCSA) NBCU chair of Ads & Partnerships Linda Yaccarino
+Today Show's Natalie Moralis w/panelists Terry Crews, Ester Dean, Kate Dl Castillo, Mandy
Moore (4pm pt)
Costco Warehoiuse Clubs (COST) Dec 2019 Sales Release (1:15 pst)
Lowe’s (LOW) walk-in spring hiring event at stores in the south &
southwest
Quibi (private) CEO Meg Whitman & Chairman Jeffrey Katzenerg keynote @CES (9:30am pt)
US Transportation Sec'y Elaine Chao, US CTO Michael Kratsios, & CTA's Tiffany Moore
keynote panel @CES (11:30am pt)
Walt Disney’s (DIS) ABC hosts TV Critics Winter Press Tour
THURSDAY, 01/09
Wolfe Research (Steve Mulnovich)TechStrat Valley Visits (VEEV, NVDA, ZS, CSCO,
NTNX, VMW, WORK)
Raymond James Deer Valley Telecom Summit (Park City UT thru 10th)
18th Commercial Real Estate Forecast Conference (Chicago IL)
Correctional Association Annual (San Diego CA thru 14th)
AACR Advancing Precision Medicine Drug Development (San Diego thru 12th)
Kids @Play Family Tech Summit @CES (Las Vegas)
IDC Building NextGen Tech on a Foundation of Consumer Trust @CES (Las Vegas)
ISE International Sportsmen’s Expo (Denver CO thru 12th)
21st Annual Beef Industry Convention (London ON Canada thru 11th)
Citi European Insurance Conference (London UK)
TD Securities Energy Conference (London UK thru 10th)
Oddo BHF Forum (Lyon FR thru 10th)
Credit Suisse Greater China Technology & Internet Conference (Hong Kong thru 10th)
Jefferies Consumer Corporate (1x1) Day (Hong Kong)
Citi Hong Kong & China (Healthcare theme) Corporate Day (Hong Kong)
Walt Disney’s (DIS) FX hosts TV Critics Winter Press Tour
FRIDAY, 01/10
Annual ASH (Hematology) Review (NYC & Seattle WA thru 11th)
American Bus Association Marketplace/BusWorld Academy (Omaha NE thru 15th)
Bass & Salt Water Fishing Expo (Raleigh NC thru 12th)
Peer Summit (Eden UT for authors, leaders, change-makers, blockchain founders-thru
12th)
Auto Parts Autorama (Cincinnati OH thru 12th)
European Auto Salon (Brussels Belgium thru 19th)
Citi Hong Kong & China Corporate (Utilities & Clean Energy theme) Corporate
Day (Hong Kong)
SEMI.org Smarter Manufacturing through Better Data (Shanghai China)
Sr Diversified Banks & Brokers analyst Steve Chubak will host a CECL
(Current Expected Credit Losses) "lunch & learn" (NY)
PBS-Public Broadcasting Stations-hosts TV Critics Press Tour
FILMS OPENING: "1917," w/Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel
Mays, Colin Firth, filmed as if in a single shot that followed the infantry into the field
and through borders, in WWI, written & directed by Sam Mendes, distributed by
Universal (CMCSA). "Just Mercy," with Brie Larson, Michael B.
Jordan, Jamie Foxx, primarily written & directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, based on a
true story described in the book, "Just Mercy: A Story of Justice &
Redemption," by Bryan Stevenson, about winning freedom for a wrongly convicted
inmate, distributed Warner Bros (T). Both of those films debuted in limited release
last week to qualify for certain awards. "Like a Boss," with Rose Byrne,
Selma Hayek, Tiffany Haddish, Billy Porter, distributed by Paramount Pictures (VIAC)—the
first film to use the new, combined ViacomCBS logo. "Underwater," with
Kristen Stewart, T.J. Miller, Jessica Henwick, Vincent Cassel, a horror film from 20th
Century Fox Films (DIS). "The Informer," with Aria de Armas, Rosamund
Pike, Joel Kinnaman, Clive Owen, Common, distributed by Aviron Pictures in the US & by
Warner Bros (T) in the UK, where it debuted last August 30th..
SATURDAY, 01/11
East/West Biotech CEO Conference (NY thru 12th)
Plant & Animal Genome XXVII (San Diego thru 15th)
PIA/GATF Color Management 20 Conference (San Diego thru 14th)
Comcast’s (CMCSA) NBCUniversal hosts TV Critics Press Tour EARLIER 2019
OUTLOOK EXCERPTS HERE 2020 to be added
next week
© Sandi Lynne 2020 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a
recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s,
alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,
Regards
Sandi Lynne
(c) 1998--2019
Sandi Lynne