What You missed LAST Week:
EARNINGS & EVENTS SHOULD DOMINATE
January 1115, 2021 The first thing you have to know is that the week ends on a day
many workers in 23 states will first see a rise in their hourly pay, as the minimum wage
is rising in half the states, this year, but not all of them as of January 1st.
Many issue pay twice a month, so Friday, the 15th, will be a big day. Second,
the week ends into a 3-day weekend, as Monday, the 18th, is the Martin Luther
King Jr Holiday, one of the few when US markets are closed. Then, on the 20th,
of course, well see the inauguration of Joseph Biden Jr as the 46th President of the
United States, and not a day too soon, after last weeks insurrection and storming of
the Capitol, instigated by the departing President. There is no early close this Friday,
in any market.
Many believe Monday will see the second impeachment of Donald Trumpa first for any
US President. Rare enough for an impeachment but 2 for one single term President,
unprecedented. Some Democrats worry that impeachment will wind up a diversion, early in
Bidens new presidency, derailing his plans for his first 100 days. Well,
theres little chance that Trump will resign, and at least one reason to impeach him
is because it would then be impossible for him to try for a second term in 2024. Some Dems
have called on Biden to call off the impeachment plans but hes already stated his
reaction, if anyone was listening. Its up to Congress, not him.
The Federal Reserve is hosting an Artificial Intelligence Virtual Symposium, starting
Tuesday, with Fed Gov. Lael Brainard doing kick-off honors. The Racism &
EconomyFocus on Education V-Summit requires some explanation, given the 4 regional
Fed Bank CEOs speaking. Theyre speaking on successive days, each of them starting at
11am. Also Tuesday, release of NFIBs Small Business Optimism Index, Nov.
JOLTSJob Openings & Quits.
Other notable Economic Events include Dec CPI on Wednesday, the weekly MBA Mortgage Data,
and the Feds Beige Book, along with Fed Vice Chair Clarida on the Feds New
FrameworkAverage 2.0% Inflation over a sustained period of time. The disaster of the
day, Wednesday, will be the Federal Governments December Budget Statement, though
its doubtful the freshly issued $600 per most people Pandemic Stimulus payment will
be included, since those seem to have hit most bank accounts on January 4th but
its not impossible that they show up in the Dec. statement. Trump finds ways to be
proud of distinctions most presidents would shun, so running the biggest budget deficit in
a single non-war year could be one of em. Fed Gov Brainard is also speaking
Wednesday, at the Canadian Association of Business Economics, which will run through the
14th. Her speech is the Inaugural Mike McCracken :lecture on Full Employment.
In recent months, shes more often spoken on revisions to and other facets of the
Community Redevelopment Act, CRA. The moderator for her speech is Carolyn Wilkins, the
Senior Deputy Governor of the Bk of Canada, often appearing with the former Governor,
Poloz, at his monetary policy post-meeting press conferences.. The companion group, TABE,
is the Toronto Association for Business Economics, which dominates the sessions on the 14th,
Cities Post-Covid: What does the Future Hold?
While Trump has not been a fan of climate changeeven opening Alaska to more oil
drilling, the Federal Reserve has jumped on the risks of climate change, Thursday several
regional Fed bank sponsored virtual events, though FOMC Chair Powells speech that
day is not on climate, that we know of. And advertised as a "conversation,"
rather than a speech, expect more Q&A than prepared text. Friday, Dec. Retail Sales
& PPI, along with Business & Retail Inventories, the Empire State NY Fed Jan
Manufacturing Index, and University of Michigans first look at consumer sentiment,
this year. It was only a year ago, Friday, that Chinas Vice President Liu arrived in
D.C. to sign the first phase of the Trade Agreement. I said at the time, the fact that Xi
wasnt coming felt telling, and it turns out, that might have been the case. Even
given the unusual year, disrupted by COVID-19, there doesnt seem a chance in Hades
that China will fulfill the purchases promised in Phase 1, and there certainly wont
be a Trump Phase 2just as everyone speculated last year..
ECB Pres Lagarde is speaking at Reuters Next Virtual Event. That takes place across 3
different time zonesSGT, GMT, EST, starting at 5:30am GMT. The Next
V-Event, is subtitled "Rethink, rebuild,
recover." Besides ECB Pres Lagarde, speakers include Google CEO Sundar Pichai,
FaceBooks Sheryl Sandberg, AirBnB CEO Brian Chesky, Sir Tim Berners-Lee, CNNs
Christiane Amanpour, Chevron CEO Michael Wirth, World Nuclear Assn Dir. Gen, Polar
Explorer Ann Daniels, U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change Exec Secy,
Womens Earth & Climate Action Network Intl, Columbia Univ Ctr for
Sustainable Development, Lloyds of London Market Assn, Legal & General
Investment Mngmnt, Indorama Ventures, Climate Bonds Initiative, Centrus Energy Corp, Baker
Hughes CEO, Novelis, Natura & Co LatAm, Moodys Investor Service, church of
England Pensions Board, Albemarle Pres. Lithium GBU, Stockholm Environment Institute,
Greenpeace USA, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Shell Chief Climate Change Advisor, Refinitiv,
Chile Minster of Energy & Mining (and many other 3rd world ministers), Univ
of Oxford. Next runs through January 14th, across several tracks: Sustainable
Future, Media & Free, Recovering Growth, Radical Redesign, Policy & Progress.
The Earnings Calendar promises intense interest. Monday, its the disaster
thats Carnival Cruiselines, and Charles Schwab, which hasnt seemed hurt by
either free equity trades or rock-bottom interest rates. Wednesday, Albertsons,
which came public just in time to become an "essential" retailer, and K B Homes,
builders flourishing with mortgage rates at all time lows, despite rising prices for land,
lumber and other requirements to build houses. Thursday, Earnings are coming from
BlackRock, Delta Airlines, and Taiwan Semiconductor. Friday, a bankalooza, with Citigroup,
JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial, & Wells Fargo. While Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs
wont be reporting until the following week, much of what anyone would need to know
will be revealed by dissecting this weeks reports.
That brings us to the Events Calendar, for which, this week, we tried something new. We
underlined the events likely to attract the most attention, while also putting related but
unaffiliated events below each of the main events. For instance, JPMorgans 39th
Healthcare Conference is often the most important healthcare event of the first quarter.
Several events have sprung up around JPMs, occurring this year, even though they
cant be co-located. Likewise, the ICR Conference is one of the biggest of the year
for retail, restaurants, and apparel/footwear manufacturing, around which has sprung any
number of I-bank events. Ditto CESthe Consumer Electronics Show, of which, Goldman
Sachs Tech & Internet V-Conference is just one, likely to be the better attended
event, this year, than the Digital CES. Nonetheless, Verizons CEO is offering the
opening Keynote, while Samsung is expected to be another keynote highlight, Thursday, at
Digital Hollywood, that includes unveiling of new Galaxy mobile devices. JPMorgans
19th Annual Tech/Auto V-Forum is another CES-related event, as is Sundays
IEEE V-Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE) and Digital Hollywoods Digital
Experience. Thursdays SAE Connect2Car & the Automotive News Future of Mobility
V-event are all regular CES affiliated events. Even the Chicago Feds Automotive
Insights (Wed.) is timed coincident to CES.
Time was, the Peters & Co Winter Energy Conference would be one of the biggest events
of the yearyou dont hold something 27 prior times, if thats not true but
this year could get lost in the flood of events starting Monday. Ditto Needhams 23rd
Annual Growth V-Conference, Monday, and AASthe Astronomical Societys 237th
Event, also Monday, for which you should think Space. Were I a fly on the wall of Credit
Suisses Tuesday Aircraft Leasing V-Conference, Id expect to hear whispered
speculation about Indonesias latest Boeing aircraft disaster, though even news
anchors reporting the event were outspoken about lax maintenance out of Indonesia, and the
age of the aircraft. Still, just a couple of days after Boeing agreed to pay a $2.5B fine
for fraud in its dealings with the FAA, the latest crash cant just be ignored, even
if it wasnt a 737 MAX that fell out of the sky, into the sea.
And even though monthly Options dont mean as much as they used to, given the growing
popularity of weekly options, it must be remembered that the January options expiring at
the end of this week could have been purchased as much as 3 years ago, at a time they were
LEAPs. Granted, few hold onto options that long, and most should have been sold as the
coronavirus sell-off started in March, its still a fact that some suffer so badly
from inertia they could well be holding onto options that bought that long ago, waiting
for Fridays deadline to finally exit or call the underlying shares. And more
important than all the events detailed above and below, is the fact that by Friday,
well be looking at a 3-day weekend, before coming back for just one full day before
Joseph Biden Jrs inauguration as the 46th President of the Unites States,
closing out a sad chapter in U.S. history.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below.
Full
International Economic Calendar is here)
SUNDAY, 01/10
102nd American Farm Bureau Federation V-Conference (thru 13th)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
China Dec CPI & PPI
Mexico Nov Industrial Production
MONDAY, 01/11
BoEs Teneyro on "Lets Talk about Negative Interest Rates"
(text published 14:00 gmt)
ECB Pres Lagarde moderator @France, U.N., + World Bank "One Planet" V-Summit for biodiversity (15:40 cet; Paris FR)
BoEs dir. of FinMarket Infrastructure webinar on forthcoming consultation on
Supervision of International Banks (15:00 gmt)
US Treasury Auctions $54B 3-, & $51B 6-month Bills
US Treasury Auctions $58B 3-year Notes
Bk of Canada Business Outlook Survey
Virtual Town Hall w/Dallas Fed CEO Robert
Kaplan (5pm webcast live)
Japanese Holiday
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Japan Dec Bank Lending, Eco Watchers Dec Outlook,
Nov Current Account
BoEs Broadbent: "Covid & the
composition of spending" (10:00 gmt)
So. Africa Nov Manufacturing Production, Total 2020
Vehicle Sales
India Nov Industrial & Manufacturing Production,
Dec CPI
TUESDAY, 01/12
NFIB Dec Business Optimism Index
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fed Gov Brainard on AI & FinServices @FRB A.I. V-Symposium (9:35am et; thru 13th)
US Nov JOLTS (Job Openings & Quits)
Conference Boards Dec Employment Trends Index
US Treasury Auctions $30B reopened 119-day & $30B reopened 42-day Bills
Feds Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari & Rosengren speak @Racism & the Economy-Focus
on Education (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B reopened 10-year Notes
Feds Rosengren 2021 Economic V-Overview to Boston Chamber of Commerce
(2pm et)
OVERNGIHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Japan Dec Machine Tool Orders
German Dec Wholesale Prices
ECBs Lagarde Q&A @Reuters Next V-Event (10:00 cet thru 14th)
Eurozone Nov Industrial Production
WEDNESDAY, 01/13
MBA weekly Mortgage Purchase/Refinance Applications (w/e 01/08)
US Dec CPI/Core CPI
FRB Chicago 27th Annual Automotive Insights V-Symposium
(9:30am)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am et; w/e 01/08)
Fed Gov Brainard "The Economic Outlook & Full Employment" @CABE (1pm
et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 30-year Bonds
Minneapolis Fed 2021 Regional Economic Conditions V-Conference
Federal Reserve Beige Book (2pm et)
US Treasury Dec. Budget Statement
Fed V.Ch. Clarida discusses FRBs new Framework: Context & Consequences
(2pm)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Japan Nov Machinery Orders, Dec PPI
UK RICS Dec House Price Balance
China Dec Trade Balance, FDI, Vehicle Sales, New
Yuan Loans, Total Loans Outstanding, Total Social Financing
German 2020 GDP, Government Budget Balance
ECB Account of MPC Governing Council Dec 09-10,
2020 Meeting
THURSDAY, 01/14
BoEs Breeden V-briefing How the BoE is supporting Climate Action"
(13:00 gmt)
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US Dec Import/Export Prices
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 01/08)
US Treasury Auctions 4- & 8-week Bills (Values not disclosed at post)
Climate, Wildfire & Air Pollution V-Event +Climate Economics (11am)
Atlanta Feds Bostic on
Support Small Business for Inclusive & Resilient Recovery (11am)
Conversation w/Fed Chair Jerome Powell @Princeton U Bendheim Ctr (12:30pm
et)
Climate Change Risk in Financial Markets: Advancing the Conversation in 2021
FedTalk 2021 Economic Outlook (noon webinar/FRB Cleveland)
Natl Tribal Listening Session on CRA Modernization V-Event (2pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Aussie Nov Home Loans, Investment Lending
for Homes
So. Korea MPC Interest Rate Decision, Dec
Trade Balance
China Dec House Price Index, Consumer
Confidence
UK Nov GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial/Mnftg
Production, Index of Services
Eurozone Nov Trade Balance, Dec Fx Reserves
ECBs Enria Banca dItalia
keynote-"The crisis management framework for banks in the EU"
FRIDAY, 01/15
US Dec Retail Sales
US Nov Retail Inventories
US Dec PPI/Core PPI
UK NIESR Dec GDP Tracker
NY Fed Empire State Jan Manufacturing Index
Breakfast w/Fed: COVID-19 Acceleration of Existing Trends in US Labor Markets
(9am et)
US Dec Industrial/Manufacturing Production/Capacity Utilization
US Nov Business Inventories
U.M. (P) Jan Consumer Sentiment/Current Conditions/Expectations
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No.Am Oil/Total Rig Count (1pm et)
A Year Ago. China V P Liu arrived in D.C. to sign the Phase I Trade Deal
WEEKS AHEAD:
01/18/2021 Martin Luther King Jr Holiday US Markets Closed
01/20--21/2021 BoJ MPC
Meeting + Preess Conference
01/21/2021 ECB MPC Meets + Press Conference
01/26--27/2021 FOMC Meets
+ Press Conference
02/04/2021 BoE MPC Meets
EARNINGS: (We follow only the money
center banks, biggest regionals, and large overseas banks that trade on US Exchanges. We
omit all other banks as outside our universe. Lower case tickers, followed by 3 question
marks, means we checked but couldnt confirm the date. Charles Schwab usually
releases quarterly results on the "11th business day of January, April,
July & October," but otherwise, hasnt confirmed Mondays entry,
below.)
MONDAY, 01/11: anix, AZZ, CCL, SCHW, CMC, CNXC, fc??, KRUS. LMNR, loop???,
SLP, SNX
TUESDAY, 01/12: ACI, BBCP, EXFO, KBH, ormp, OGI
WEDNESDAY, 01/13: bmra, INFO, INFY, sjr???, VOLT
THURSDAY, 01/14: apha???, BLK, DAL, FRC, PRGS, TSM
FRIDAY, 01/15: C, JPM, PNC, WFC
EVENTS: (V- =Virtual; D- =Digital)
SUNDAY, 01/10
39th IEEE Intl V-Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE) @CES
(thru 12th)
Digital Hollywood Fall Digital Experience affiliated w/CES (thru 14th)
Healthtech PepTalk Drug Discovery & Development V-Conference (thru 21st)
Solebury Trout Annual 1x1 Management Access V-Event
Gordon Research V-Seminar RNA Nanotechnology
Institute for Data Science & Big Data V-Event (thru 15th)
L.A. Market Week Hybrid Event
142nd Philly National Candy, Gift & Gourmet Show POSTPONED
Outdoor Retailer Snow V-Show (thru 03.19)
ACC CANCELED Cardiovascular Conference @Snowmass
Bass & Salt Water Fishing Expo (Raleigh NC thru 10th)
American Baseball Coaches Annual V-Convention
Wizard World (WIZD)/ComicCon (New Orleans LA)
MONDAY, 01/11
JPMorgan 39th Annual Healthcare V-Conference (thru 15th)
*EBD Group Annual Biotech V-Showcase (thru 15th)
*H.C. Wainwright BioConnect 2021 V-Conference (thru 14th)
ICR 23rd Annual V-Conference (thru 14th)
*Stephens V-Conference related to ICR
*Wolfe Research Meetings @ICR
Goldman Sachs 2021 Technology & Internet V-Conference (thru 12th)
CES V-Consumer Electronics Show (thru 14th)
*Citi hosted V-Meetings @CES 2021 (thru 14th)
*Raymond James V-Meetings @CES (thru 14th)
*IDC Consumer Predictions V-Briefing @CES
Morgan Stanley 7th Auto 2.0 V-Conference
UBS Winter Infrastructure & Energy V-Conference (thru 13th)
Needham 23rd Annual Growth V-Conference
Capital One Securties REIT V-Conference (thru 12th)
RBC Canadian Bank CEO V-Conference
Reuters Next (across 4 time zones, thru 14th)
AAS 237th Astronomical Society V-Event (think Space thru 15th)
SANS Cyber Security East Online (thru 16th)
Commerzbank AG 20th German Investment V-Seminar (thru 13th)
Citi Turkish V-Conference (thru 12th)
Semler Scientific Inc (SMLR) V-NDR w/B Riley Financial
Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY) Dec Same Store Sales Expected
Zscaler (ZS) 2021 Analyst Day (7:30am pst)
TUESDAY, 01/12
JPMorgan 19th Annual Tech/Auto V-Forum @CES
Peters & Co 28th Winter Energy V-Conference (thru 13th)
Credit Suisse 2021 Aircraft Leasing V-Conference
SEMI ISS Industry Strategy V-Symposium
Stephens V-Where Banks & FinTech Collide (On surge in new bank charters)
FloCon 2021 V-Forum on Large-Scale Network Analytics (thru 15th)
NDIA Defense Systems Procurement Division V-Meeting
NMHC Housing Council Apartment Strategies/Outlook Webinar Series (thru 26th)
24th Oddo BHF V-Forum (thru 13th)
Citi Korea Analyst V-Day (thru 13th)
Nomura China Property Management Corporate V-Day (thru 13th)
Nomura Indonesia V-Corporate Day (Singapore was original plan)
Macquarie Philippines Owners Access V-Conference (thru 13th)
Citrix (CTXS) V-Summit (thru 21st)
Descartes Systems Group (DSGX) V-Marketing w/Stephens
On Semiconductor (ON) Investor call w/B Riley Financial from CES
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) special meeting to vote on acquisition of Parsley
Energy (PE)
Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) Conference call w/B Riley Financial
WEDNESDAY, 01/13
CJS Securities 21st New Ideas for the New Year V-Conference
Alliance for Regenerative Medicine (ARM) Cell & Gene Therapies State of the
Industry V-Briefing
Keystone V-Symposia Antibodies & Vaccines as Drugs for COVID-19 (thru 14th)
Chicago Feds 27th Annual Automotive Insights V-Symposium
IDC Security Services Q1 Market V-Update
NTIL Annual Industrial Transportation League Positive Train Control Webinar
CJS Securities 21st "New Ideas for the New Year" V-Conference
Berenberg Benelux & French V-Conference (thru 14th)
Exane BNP Paribas 11th Edition of SIDSpain Investors CEO V-Day
(thru 14th)
Baader Helvea Swiss Equities V-Conference (thru 15th)
Citi European Utilities & Infrastructure V-Conference (thru 15th)
Credit Suisse China Renewable Energy V-Corporate Days (thru 15th)
CME Group (CME) pays its $2.50 special dividend
Cinemark Hldgs (CNK) mngmnt call w/B Riley
Semtech Corp (SMTC) small grp meeting w/B Riley Financial
NHL (Natl Hockey League) Short Season Starts
THURSDAY, 01/14
SAE Connect2Car @CES Digital Summit
Digital Hollywood @CES
Automotive News shift: Future of Mobility: Get Up to Speed Webinar @CES
Jefferies Software V-Bus Tour
RBC Capital Energy Transition V-Series--Exploring Hydrogen Mobility
Deutsche Bank EMEA Outlook Presentation V-Series
Octavian Seminar 2021 (thru 15th)
Citi Greater China Healthcare Corporate Day (Hybrid; Shenzhen China thru 15th)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) V-marketing w/Strategas Grp
Samsung (SMSN) Keynotes Digital Hollywood @CES, Rumored Unveil of New Galaxy
Line-up
Signet Group (SIG) Holiday Sales Update (pre-market)
FRIDAY, 01/15
Last Day to Trade January Optionsincludes LEAPs Sold 3 Years Ago
Raymond James Private Data Center V-Symposium
FN Platform Footwear Sourcing Digital Event (thru MARCH 16th)
ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers V-Symposium (thru 17th)
31st Society for Technology in Anesthesia Annual V-Event
All US Markets Trade Regular Hours
102nd Southern Seed Annual Meeting CANCELED
WNLA CANCELED Western Nursery & Landscape Show
Americas Cup PRADA Cup (Auckland New Zealand thru 22nd)
ConocoPhilips (COP) & Concho Resources (CXO) vote on their proposed merger
Starwood Property (STWD) V-marketing w/Strategas
FILMS OPENING where theaters have reopened: "The Marksman," w/Liam
Neeson, Katheryn Winnick, Teresa Ruiz, distributed by Open Road Films (owned by Raven
Capital Management). "Wrath of Man," directed by Guy Ritchie, with Niamh
Algar, Jason Stratham, Josh Hartnett, Scott Eastwood, distributed by Lionsgate (LGF.A).
"Dont Tell a Soul," with Rainn Wilson, Fionn Whitehead, Jack Dylan
Grazer, distributed by Lionsgagte (LGF.A) in collaboration w/Saban Films, which
acquired it at the Tribeca Film Festival. "Some Kind of Heaven," documentary
behind the scenes at Floridas 55 & over community, The Villages, one of
Trumps favorite rally haunts. Opened in limited release, last week, and goes wide,
this week, via Mark Cuban & Todd Wagners Magnolia Pictures. .
SATURDAY, 01/16
18th Review: Clinical Hematology & Oncology V-Congress
EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2021 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2021 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a
recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the authors,
alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,
Regards
Sandi Lynne
(c) 1998--2021
Sandi Lynne