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                                           Here's What You missed LAST Week                                                                                                             

                                                                                                      EARNINGS SEASON SNUCK UP ON US

January 08—12, 2018 For all the hooplah around "Fire & Fury: Inside the Trump White House," Michael Wolff’s book on the Trump White House, neither the book nor the New York Magazine with an excerpt were available at the local Barnes & Noble. And that’s why the chain is likely to go 6 feet under—even the one here, directly across the street from the entrance to FAU. And there was no help to help, so when I looked up the book on the "help desk" computer, I was mistaken for an employee, and asked to look up Fire & Fury, about seven times before the computer return the message that it won’t be in until 01/09, the disk 3 days later.

There are 3 major events, this week, that will dominate the newsfeed: CES (Consumer Electronics Show), JPMorgan Healthcare, and ICR Conference, the latter with separate schedules for public and non-public companies. What’s remarkable is the number of I-bank events scheduled around all 3 events, in a last throwback to the mid-90’s, and COMDEX, when those in-the-know could time options purchases on Microsoft and, (back then), Compaq, timed to capitalize on the dinners Goldman Sachs would host on successive days, and the upgrades for each of them that arrived like clock work the day after the dinner at which each starred. And back then, it was not only Goldie’s dinners, cocktail parties, and morning after upgrades that made COMDEX such a tradable event, but the dates of COMDEX itself, when there was no internet to search. In fact, Wall Street In Advance began as a full year’s printed calendar, the top events neatly featured on the days those events started. At one time, COMDEX was bigger than everything.

CES Intel CEO Krzanich delivers the Keynote on Monday, while nVidia keynotes Sunday night, before Intel. NVDA wowed in 2017, talking about its autonomous cars & AI that needs its chips. INTC can no longer pretend it has nothing to fear from NVDA, as the latter has successfully convinced investors and analysts that it moved from graphics chips to chips that power servers, autonomous vehicles and AI. Ironically, Intel is expected to roll out lots of new chips, at CES, especially high end ones for laptops & gaming but including a chipset that includes an AMD graphics chip—a rare collaboration between the two, on the I7 CPU that incorporates an AMD Radeon GPU chip, suggesting how serious INTC is about matching and surpassing NVDA. Some are eager to hear what CEO Krzanich plans in AR/VR after it shut down Project Alloy, its VR headset project. INTC does have a project to stream MLB games in VR. FCC Chairman Ajit Pai canceled his scheduled appearance at CES, citing death threats. JPM & Citi host events at CES.

Many retailers & apparel/shoe manufacturers, restaurants & leisure parks will be updating their Qtr outlook at the 20th ICR, this week. I.e. Kohl’s CEO Kevin Mansell is scheduled to keynote at noon, on the 9th, updating its holiday sales guidance. It won’t be alone, Others not appearing at ICR, like Tiffany, schedule a separate holiday (November/ December) sales update, for TIF, on Jan 17th. (While the timing for TIF’s call hasn’t been announced, yet, 8:30am is when it hosts earnings conference calls.) The best way to gauge when holiday sales updates will arrive, short of looking up every company individually, would be to load the ICR Conference
presentation schedule, and assume every company on the agenda plans to update holiday sales, on the 8th or 9th. Private companies present on the 10th. There’s one track for retailers, on the 8th, in the morning, that starts with SEAS, moves to ASNA, CROX, LE, LULU, CHS, before the luncheon keynote. On a separate track, it’s restaurants: RUTH, CHUY, FOGO, RRGB, TACO. I-banks like Citi are hosting clients here, too. ICR is the meeting that has the most satellite meetings of I-banks and their clients, including Wells Fargo, Citi, Raymond James, and more

And then, there’s the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, that attracts more "satellite" events than any other, throughout the year. Even Leerink, one of the most respected Biotech I-banks schedules events to coincide with JPM.

Normally, I’d be pointing out all the Fed Reserve speakers, this week but with a new sheriff coming to town, I feel about those events the way I did about last week’s Fed minutes from its Dec meeting—new voters and a new chief made the minutes of little interest. But, with the two doves who dissented against the rate rise in Dec leaving the voting panel, and at least one emphatic hawk getting a vote in 2018—Loretta Mester—we’re all in the dark until we’ve seen a couple of meetings, and the minutes that result. John Williams, also joining the voting in Feb., is more hawkish than the rest of the FOMC except Mester. Mester spoke of 3, or even 4 hikes this year, while Williams seemed to endorse the 3 already planned by the SEP (Member projections last released in Dec.) And let’s not forget that NY Fed Pres/CEO William Dudley is leaving this year, probably by the summer, which might be additional discomfort, as the Powell/ Quarles FOMC unfolds. Then again, Bostic is a newbie, speaking on Monday but talks to Rotary Clubs rarely are a setting for policy position speeches. And so it’s said, Yellen has said she’ll leave when her successor is sworn in. Everyone assumes that will be AFTER the Jan 30—31 meeting, on Feb 3rd, when her first and only term will end. But who’s to say Trump won’t see to Powell’s swearing in, sooner, ending Yellen’s term faster than expected—fast enough to put Powell in the chair at the head of the table, by the late January meeting.

Bits & Pieces: NAHB, the Nat’l Association of Homebuilders assembles for its annual show, starting Tuesday, which is the day Goldman Sachs is hosting a Global Energy Conference, both, coincidentally, in Florida which makes them attractive getaways after last week’s Bombcyclone. Pfizer said, Saturday, it will stop searching for drugs to treat Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s Disease, giving up a fight that has cost so much and delivered so little. If Disney looks soft, that might be because "Star War: The Last Jedi" opened to very underwhelming ticket sales, in China ($28.7m over the weekend). The two Koreas are meeting this week, though I can’t imagine what will come of it: A promise not to bomb each other, when the North Korean midget wants to bomb the US? The Treasury is offering a boatload of debt, this week, and what bothers me is the amount of 3-, & 6-month debt on offer, every month, even as rates are rising and being pushed higher by the FOMC, elevating the costs to service that debt. At one time, Treas Sec’y Mnuchin seemed to favor really, really, long term debt, of the 50-year & 100 year really long but, instead, $90B of debt on offer this week will mature by summer, while 3-year Notes will amount to just $24B, 10-year $20B, and 30-year a mere $12B, the latter 2 reopenings.

And then, Earnings Season begins this week, Friday a huge day because BlackRock, JPMorgan, PNC, and Wells Fargo reporting, at the end of a week that will have, also, included Delta Airlines, K B Homes, and Lennar. And watch out for CY17 Economic Data, because the Dec. Employment Report was soft.

ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 01/07
Fed’s Williams
on "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence form the Derivatives Prices" @ AEA: American Economic Ass’n Annual Meeting (Philadelphia PA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        China Dec Foreign Direct Investment

        EU Commission Conf. on EU’s "Next long-term budget after Brexit" (Brussels to 9th)

MONDAY, 01/08
Fed’s Williams
"Should the Fed Stick with the 2% Inflation Target or Rethink It?" @ Brookings Institution "The Options: Keep it, Tweak It, or Replace it?" later today, Fed’s Rosengren at same event on "Next Steps: Learning from the Bank of Canada" (D.C.)
Pres. Trump will address the American Farm Federation Conference (NAFTA a concern; Nashville TN)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills
Fed’s Bostic
on Economic Outlook @ Rotary Club of (Atlanta)
TD Ameritrade US IMX
US Nov Consumer Credit (Debt, really, always higher after holidays)
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         Eurozone Nov. Unemployment Rate

TUESDAY, 01/09
North & South Korea
to hold direct talks
US NFIB Jan Business Optimism Index
Canada Dec. Housing Starts
US Nov. JOLTS (Job Openings & Turnover)
Fed’s Kashkari moderated Q&A hosted by Cargill (CAG)
US Treasury Auctions $24B 3-year Notes.
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        China Dec. PPI & CPI, New Yuan Loans
& Aggregate Financing
        ECB Minutes of the Dec. MPC Meeting
        UK Nov Industrial Production, Construction & Manufacturing Output, Nov. Merchandise Trade balance
        Germany Auctions 10-year Bunds

WEDNESDAY, 01/10
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
UK NIESR Dec GDP
Fed’s Evans
on Economy & Monetary Policy Outlook (@ Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club
Fed’s Kaplan discussion @ Urban Land Institute Emerging Trends Breakfast
Fed’s Kaplan discussion on Weitzman Annual Retail Forecast (Dallas)
US Nov. (F) Wholesale Inventories & Trade
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stockpiles (w/e 01/05/18)
US Treasury Auctions $20B reopened 10-year Notes
Fed’s Bullard
on US Economy & Monetary Policy (St Louis)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        ECB Account of December Rate Meeting
        Canada Nov New Housing Price Index


THURSDAY, 01/11
NY Fed Pres Dudley
keynotes @ SIFMA "US Economic Outlook: What’s in Store for 2018"
Fed’s Bullard on US Eco Outlook & Monetary Policy (St. Louis)
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Dec. PPI---Final Demand
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions $12B Reopened 30-year Bonds
US Treasury Budget Imbalance
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (shrinking more quickly now) & US Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        China Dec Trade Balance
        ECB Forecast of Professional Forecasts
        German CY17 GDP & Public Finances/GDP Ratio
        Eurozone, French, German, Italian & Spanish Dec CPI & HICP
        Swedish Central Bank Dpty Gov Skingsley discusses economic situation & monetary policy @ Skagen Founder’s New Year Conference (Stockholm)
        Canada Teranet/National Bank Dec Home Price Index
        BoE Economist Silvana Tenreyro @ ’18 Peston Lecture at Queen Mary Univ. of London on "The Fall in Productivity Growth: Causes & Implications (London)

FRIDAY, 01/12
US Dec CPI
US Dec Retail Sales

US Wholesale & Retailer Inventories
China Dec. Trade Balance w/US
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed’s Rosengren keynotes @Global Interdependence Center (GIC) Event at which he’ll receive the GIC Frederick Heldring Awards for Global Leadership (San Diego CA)
All Markets Trade Full Day Schedule (15th Martin Luther King Jr US Holiday)

SATURDAY, 01/13
US 3-day Holiday; US Markets Closed 01/15 for Martin Luther King Jr holiday


                      WEEKS AHEAD: 01/22—23    BoJ MPC Meets
       c                                                01/25      ECB MPC Meets
                                                       01/26       Riksbank (Sweden) MPC Meets
                                                01/30—31 FOMC Meets
                                                      02/08         BoE MPC Meets


EARNINGS: (We no longer separate morning from after hours earnings which was a burden to sift. We cover only the money-center banks and biggest regionals, foreign banks traded in the US more likely to be included than smaller domestic banks. We ignore "The" in a company name unless it’s integral to the ticker. I.e. HSY isn’t, TCS is.)
MONDAY, 01/08: SHLM, AYI, CUDA, EXFO?, HELE, LMNR, SNX, WDFC?

TUESDAY, 01/09: SCHN, SVU (conf. call tomorrow 9am ct)

WEDNESDAY, 01/10: DAL, KBH, LEN, MSM

THURSDAY, 01/11: FHN

FRIDAY, 01/12: BLK, JPM, PNC, WFC

EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 01/07

American Farm Bureau Federation Annual Meeting (Nashville TN thru 10th)
East/West CEO-Biotech conference (San Francisco)
Correctional Association Convention (Orlando FL thru 9th)
AEA American Economic Ass’n Annual Meeting (Philadelphia PA)
Philadelphia Nat’l Candy, Gift & Gourmet Show (Philadelphia thru 8th)
American Baseball Coaches Annual Convention (Indianapolis IN)
Auto Parts Autorama (Cincinnati OH)
Wizard World/ComicCon (New Orleans LA)
TV Critics Winter Press Tour (Los Angeles CA thru 17th)

STARTING SUNDAY, 01/07
CES Unveiled (Las Vegas NV for Foreign Media, visitors, & exhibitors + analysts thru 8th)
Affiliate Summit West (Las Vegas thru 9th)
Leerink Events during JPM Healthcare Conference (San Francisco CA thru 11th)
FAME (Fashion Avenue Manufacturing—NY thru 9th)
CW (CBS/TWX) hosts the TV Critics WINTER Press Tour (Los Angeles thru 17th)
Golden Globes broadcast on NBC TV (CMCSA) hosted by Seth Meyers (NBC Late night TV)

MONDAY, 01/08
JPMorgan 36th Annual Healthcare Conference (San Francisco thru 11th)
JPMorgan 16th Annual Tech Forum @ 2018 Int’l CES (Las Vegas thru 9th)
Citi Global TMT West Conference (Las Vegas thru 10th)
20th Annual ICR Conference (Orlando thru 10th)
Citi hosted Meetings @ ICR Conference (Orlando Fl thru 10th)
Wells Fargo sponsored events @ ICR (Orlando thru 9th)
Raymond James Meetings @ICR Conference (Orlando FL thru 9th)
UBS Midstream & MLP 1-1 Conference (Park City UT thru 10th)
Platts 16th Annual Natural Gas Storage Outlook (Houston TX thru 9th)
EBD Group 10th Annual Biotech Showcase (San Francisco thru 10th)
Alliance for Regenerative Medicine Cell & Gene Therapies State of the Art Industry Briefing (San Francisco)
Trout Group 1x1 Management Access event during JPM Healthcare (San Francisco thru 11th)
Nomura @ CES Forum 2018 (Las Vegas thru 10th)
Digital Hollywood @CES (Las Vegas thru 8th)
11th Annual OneMedForum (San Francisco thru 10th)
AACR-IASLC 5th Int’l Conference on Lung Cancer (San Diego CA thru 11th)
Fordham Univ. Int’l Conference on Cyber Security (NY thru 11th)
Northwest Food & Beverage (Association) World (Portland OR thru 10th)
CREF Miami Finance Council Industry Leaders Conference (Miami Beach FL thru 10th)
UBS CRE Finance Council Reception (Miami FL)
Public Funds Summit (Scottsdale AZ thru 10th)
SANS Security East (New Orleans thru 13th)
AAS: Astronomical Society (includes SpaceX, and private space flight hopefuls from Jeff Bezos & Sir Richard Branson: Nat’l Harbor MD thru 12th)
FloCon 2018 (Defense Software Engineering Institute of Carnegie Mellon U. Tucson AZ thru 11th)
Deutsche Bank 16th Access China Conference (Beijing China thru 12th)
SEB Nordic Seminar (Copenhagen Denmark thru 10th)
Citrix (CTXS) Summit (Anaheim CA thru 9th)
Kohl’s (KSS) Holiday Sales Update
ABC/Walt Disney (DIS) host TV Critics Winter Press Tour (Los Angeles)

TUESDAY, 01/09
CES Consumer Electronics Show
(Las Vegas NV thru 12th)
Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference (Miami thru 10th)
NAHB Int’l Builders Show (Orlando thru 11th)
RBC Canadian Bank CEO Conference (Toronto)
AltaCorp & ATB 6th Annual Energy, Agriculture & Diversified Conf. (Toronto Canada thru 11th)
Credit Suisse 2018 Aircraft Leasing 1-1 Conference (NY)
Commerzbank 17th German Investment Seminar (NY thru 10th)
Citi hosted Meetings @CES Conference (Las Vegas thru 10th)
NDIA Defense Systems Procurement Division Meeting (Arlington VA thru 10th)
Kids @Play Summit @CES (Las Vegas thru 12th)
Kitchen/Bath Industry Show @ NAHB (Orlando thru 11th)
SSCI Tubular Products (Scottsdale AZ thru 10th)
Citi European Insurance Conference (London)
Exane BNP Paribas 8th Edition of SID: Spain Investors Day CEO Conf (Madrid Spain thru 10th)
Morgan Stanley China TMT Conference (Beijing China)
NBCUniversal (CMCSA) hosts TV Critics Winter Press Tour
Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA) update on expected milestones in 2018 (10am et)

WEDNESDAY, 01/10
IDC
Briefing @ CES (Las Vegas)
ICSC (Shopping Centers) Nexus Conference (Palm Beach FL thru 11th)
JPMorgan European Real Estate CEO Conference (London)
Morgan Stanley Latin America Executive Conference (Miami FL thru 11th)
ANA (Nat’l Advertisers) Brand Marketing Members-Only Conference (Atlanta GA)
CJS Securities 18th Annual New Ideas for the New Year Conference (NY)
Citi European Utilities Conference (London thru 11th)
Society for Technology in Anesthesia Annual (Miami)
20th Oddo Forum (Lyon France thru 12th)
Credit Suisse Greater China Technologies & Internet Conference (Hong Kong thru 12th)
UniCredit Emerging Europe Winter Conference (Kitzbuhel thru 12th)
TCA Business Meeting & Studio Day for TV Critics Winter Press Tour
Signet Group (SIG)
Holiday Sales Release Webcast

THURSDAY, 01/11
20th Annual Beef Industry Convention (London, Ontario thru 13th)
ISE’s Int’l Sportsmen’s Expo (Denver CO thru 14th)
Atrial Fibrillation (AFIB) Symposium (Orlando thru 13th)
Baader Bank Grp Helvea Swiss Equities Conference (Bad Ragaz Switzerland thru 12th)
Credit Suisse ASEAN Conference (Singapore thru 12th)
Jefferies GetSmart Summit on China TMT (Beijing China thru 12th)
Pareto Securities 19th Annual Power & Renewable Energy Conference (Oslo Norway)
CTAM (Cable Companies) host TV Critics Winter Press tour (thru 15th)
AEGON (AEG) Asset Management Investor Symposium (NY)
Aradigm Corp’s (ARDM) Cirpoflxacin for inhalation, as treatment for non-cystic fibrosis bronchieclasis patients w/Chronic Lung Infections with Pseudomonas Aeruginosa before FDA Antimicrobial Drugs AdCom
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Goldman Sachs hosting a CSCO ESG webcast (Environmental, Social & Governance; 11am et)
23rd Critics’ Choice Awards (CW Network—TWX/CBS-owned) Olivia Munn hosting. Bestowed by the Broadcast Film Critics Ass’n (BFCA) and (BTJA), the Broadcast Television Journalists Ass’n (Santa Monica CA)

FRIDAY, 01/12
Bond Market Trades Full Day—No early close despite MLK Jr day on 01/15
IEEE Int’l Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE) @ CES (Las Vegas thru 14th)
2018 Winter Clinical Dermatology Conference (Maui HI thru 17th)
16th Oncology Update: Advances & Controversies (Steamboat Springs CO thru 15th)
Annual ASH (Hematology) Review (San Francisco + Washington DC thru 13th)
Plant & Animal Genome XXVI (San Diego thru 17th)
HCP: Halloween, Costume & Party & Special Occasion Show (New Orleans thru 15th)
Bass & Salt Water Fishing Expo (Raleigh NC thru 14th)
European Auto Salon (Brussels Belgium thru 21st)
MOVIES OPENING: "Paddington 2" with Ben Whishaw, Hugh Grant, Hugh Bonneville, & Sally Hawkins, based on the character created by Michael Bond, and sequel to the 2014 film. Co-produced by Amazon (AMZN) Prime Instant and StudioCanal, the latter distributing, "The Commuter," with Liam Neeson, Vera Farmiga, Patrick Wilson, Jonathan Banks, Elizabeth McGovern, Sam Neill, in the US distributed by LionsGate Entertainment (LGF.A), & internationally by StudioCanal. "Proud Mary," with Taraji P. Henson as a hit woman, Neal McDonough, Danny Glover, via Screen Gems (SNE).

SATURDAY, 01/13
99th Southern Seed Annual Meeting (New Orleans thru 16th)
PIA/GATF Color Management Conference (San Diego thru 16th)
Citi Hong Kong & China (PRC Gas) Corporate Day (Hong Kong)  EARLIER 2018 WEEKLY COMMENTS HERE

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
    

                                                                           Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,

Regards
  Sandi Lynne

       (c) 1998--2017 Sandi Lynne