What You missed LAST Week:
What You missed LAST Week:
EARNINGS DOMINATE EVEN IF MONEY-CENTER BANKS ARE DONE
October 18—22, 2021 THE ECB & FOMC members are out in force, this week, which
understates the situation, given that the IMF & World Bank Group host their joint
member meeting this week. And it that weren’t enough, note speakers at the Bund
Summit, Oct 22nd—24th, besides NY Fed CEO John Williams and
Jean-Claude Trichet, who round out a stellar cast that includes Robert Rubin, Jason
Furman, Jim O’Neill, Adam Posen, Joseph Stiglitz (Nobel Laureate’s last name in
CAPS, though not Nobel Laureate Michael Spence of Stanford U), Lord Adair Turner (last
name also in caps).
Besides the speakers, all notable, the US offers the NAHB Oct Housing Market Index,
Monday, US Sept Housing Starts & Building Permits, Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book
Wednesday, at 2pm, and Realtors’ September Existing home Sales & Prices, Friday.
Sprinkled within, more Fed speakers, regional Fed organized virtual conferences, one of
the biggest of which is gthe 2021 Community Bankers Symposium, Banking on the Future,
which will be closed by FDIC’s Jelena McWilliams, after Chicago Fed CEO Evans opens
it, while Fed Gov Bowman keynotes. That’s a lot of Fed & ECB speakers around the
beltway.
The Earnings Calendar is another story, altogether, because we could have emboldened
almost every tickers (and nearly did), without argument, We were more restrained than that
but it took a lot to ignore some tickers that tempted. And no, still recovering from our
loss last week, we did not check every ticker to verify it’s reporting, so
you’re somewhat on your own, this week. Still, we checked many of them, and believe
the calendar as presented is a fair representation.
Which brings us to the Events Calendar, trimmed by COVID rescheduling, as well as those
events pushed out of the way of the heavy Earnings Calendar. Time was, many events were
scheduled t coincide with the IMF/World Bank Group joint membership meeting but that was
an event not scheduled as early as it usually is, because no one knew if it would be
virtual or in-person, when the time came. It’s just coincidence, as well, that the
Council of Supply chain Pros’ EDGE Annual Technical Conference is scheduled in 2 US
cities this week—Atlanta GA & somewhere in Southern California., starting
Wednesday. We’ll note that almost all the I-bank conferences, through the end of the
year, were entered onto the master list of conferences, in August & September.
Therefore, the most important conferences are posted, and should not have been impacted by
the disruption in our schedule, recently.
Now, I have two points to make. Macy*s without its omnichannel eCommerce site is worth
nothing. Walk into its stores and, at least, based on nearby ones, there’s nothing
there worth buying, and Backstage is just a mess—a place to toss everything no one
will buy. Chains like Target & Nordstrom are using their stores as stockrooms, and
shipping from there—as they properly should. Macy*s is just a dumpsite, sending out
coupons for discounts every 10 days that buy nothing worth spending money on. Jana’s
gotta be crazy!
Now, about all the supply chain woes and supposed bare shelves: Sounds like the biggest
conspiracy in retail history. What a boon for Ebay and other leading online sellers
who’ll find a bonanza of goods getting posted for sale—long before Christmas
wrapping appears to hide the gifts. For what it’s worth, if you’re a respected
seller on any online sites—go for it! There are going to be parents who’ll pay
up to get what’s on their kids’ lists—no matter the costs. That’s what
happens when the government sends $1,400 checks to spend.
For what it’s worth—a former retailer’s opinion, and one who wants you to
note that the supposed "BIG" Money Poll in Barron’s, this weekend,
received, exactly, 124 responses—what kind of BIG Money Poll is that? Watch your step
because they’re incredibly bullish, perhaps, just when they should dial it down a
little—until later in Earnings Season.
ECONOMIC: ("V-" =Virtual;
"D-" =Digital)
SUNDAY, 10/17
ECB Pres. Lagarde delivers 2021 Per Jacobsson Lecture (IMF website 12:30pm edt)
24th Milken Institute Global Conference Los Angeles CA thru 20th)
Jt IMF/World Bank Group Fall Annual Members Meeting (thru 21st)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
China NBS Presser: Sept Industrial Production, Retail
Sales. Fixed Asset Investment, Q3 GDP
Canada Sept Housing starts/Building Permits
Fed Gov Quarles Financial Stability Board @3rd
Banco de Espana Conf on Financial Stability (5:30am et)
MONDAY, 10/18
US Sept Industrial/Manufacturing Production/Capacity Utilization
Banking & the Economy: Forum for Minorities @K.C. Fed (thru 22nd)
K.C.Fed ‘Toward an Inclusive
Recovery—Empowering Women’s Participation’ (10am cdt)
NAHB Oct Housing Market Index
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
NYFed Director Per von Zelowitz on CenBank Innovation @DC FinTech Week (10:30a,
edt thru 21st)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $45B 6-month Bills
Fed’s Bostic V-Exploring
Careers in Economics (1pm et via FedReserve Board/FedReserve Edu
Fed Gov Bowman ‘Diversity & Economic Recovery’ Biz case for Gender
Diversity (1:15pm et)
US Aug TICS
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
RBA (AUD) Meeting Minutes
ECB publishes Macroprudential Bulletin #15 (10 cet)
ECB’s Elderson keynotes XXXI Lisbon "Climate
Change & Climate Finance’ @Banco de Portugal (13:10 cet)
ECB’s Panetta opens 5th
CEBRA/ECB/IFM 5th Int’l Aspects of Digital Currencies & FinTech (14:00
cet; Frankfurt DE thru 21st)
TUESDAY, 10/19
ECB’s Lane panelist: ‘Experiences from central banks’ strategy
reviews" @Bk of Finland & SUERF Jt Conf. on ‘Monetary Policy Approaches: A
Comparative Appraisal’ (16:00 cet)
US Sept Housing Starts/Building Permits
V-PhilFed’s
Harker ‘C3" Cybersecurity, Collaboration & Cooperation (8:30am et)
Redbook US weekly store sales snapshot
US Treasury Auctions $60B reopened 40-day Bills
KCFed’s George (1pm) ‘Toward an Inclusive Recovery: Understanding &
Empowering Women’s Economic Participation’ (via FedCommunities—Dallas & KC Feds 11am et)
Richmond Fed ‘Business Case for Change: Gender Diversity & Leadership in the
Boardroom & C-Suite’ (1pm et webinar)
Fed’s Bostic @AARP/TheHill/Atlanta Fed ‘Back to work: Helping Long-Term
Unemployment’ (2pm et)
API weekly crude report
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
FedReserve V-Teaching Economics in Changing
Times: Role of Cognitive Science in Teaching & Learning Economics’ (7pm et)
ECB’s Elderson @Austrian Financials
Market Authority’s Supervisory Conference (9:20 cet)
WEDNESDAY, 10/20
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
BoE FPC Breeden keynotes FinPolicy & Environment’ @MIT 8th GGFP
V-Conference
Council of Supply Chain Pro’s EDGE Annual Tech Conference (Atlanta + SoCal
thru 22nd)
PhilFed
Rural Policy Summit: Health Care (9am et)
Capitalize4Kids (Charity--Canada thru 21st)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report
US Treasury Auctions $24B 20-year Bonds
Fed Pres/CEOs Bostic, Bullard, Daly, Evans, Kashkari rotate speeches @MNFed ‘Racism & the Economy:
Focus on Wealth Divide’ (noon et)
Fed Gov Quarles "Economic Outlook’ @Milken Institute Global Conf.
(webcast 1pm et)
Fed’s Beige Book (2pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Japan Sept Trade Balance
China PBoC Prime Loan Rate/Sept Retail Sales/Core
Retail Sales
UK Sept CPI/Core CPI, PPI/Core PPI, Sept Retail
Sales/Core Retail Sales
German Sept PPI
EU Aug Current Account, CPI/Core CPI, HICP
THURSDAY, 10/21
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Fed Gov Waller "US Economy’ @OMFIF Institutions Forum webcast (9am et)
Canada Sept CPI/Core CPI
NYFed CEO Williams & Jean-Claude Trichet V-moderated discussion @Bund Summit ‘Recovery, Challenges & Sustainability
in the Post-Covid Era’ (Shanghai China thru 24th)
KCFed
‘Toward an Inclusive Recovery: Understanding & Empowering Women’s
Participation’ (10am cdt)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Builds/Draws/Stockpiles (10:30am et)
V-Seminar on ‘Climate Economics:
Crossroads Between 2 Ultimate Externalities’ (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 5-year TIPS
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
New Zealand Sept Credit Card Spending
RBA Gov Lowe speaks
AUD Sept Manufacturing/Services PMI
Japan Sept Tokyo/National CPI/Core CPI (each), Oct
Manufacturing/Services PMI
Singapore Q3 URA Property Index
UK Sept Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales
EU, French, German, Italian Oct
Mftg/Services/Composite PMI
German GfK Nov Consumer Sentiment
Russia Oct Interest Rate Decision, CBR Press
Conference
approximate: 20th Chinese
Communist Party Congress?
FRIDAY, 10/22
Philly Fed Oct Manufacturing Index/CapEx/Employment/Orders/Prices
DallasFed 15th Economic Scholars Program V-Conference
NAR Sept Existing Home Sales/Prices
US IHS Markit (prelim) Oct Manufacturing/services/Composite PMI
ChicoFed’s
Evans on ‘Eco Outlook;’ Fed Gov Bowman keynotes ‘2021
Community Bankers Symposium: Banking on the Future’ & FDIC Chair McWilliams
closes event
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No.Am. Total/Oil Rig Count (1pm et)
WEEKS AHEAD:
10/27 Bk of Canada Meets
10/28 Bk of Japan Meets
11/02 RBA (AUD) Meets
11/02--03 FOMC Meets
11/03 FOMC post-Meeting Statement
Released (2pm et)
FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
11/04 Norges Bank (Norway) Meets
Bank of England Meets
11/11 Banco de Mexico Meets
11/24 RBNZ (New Zealand) CenBank
Meets
12/14--15 FOMC Meets
EARNINGS: (We ignore "the"
in a corporate name unless integral to the ticker. It rarely is, and is for Monday’s
(The) Container Stores (TCS) but not for The Boston Beer Co Inc (SAM) on Thursday. We
cover only the biggest money-center banks, largest regioinals, and biggest foreign banks
listed here, or as ADRs traded here. Looking for more? We’re not for you. We usually
check every ticker to affirm its report is coming but didn’t this week—as
arrangements had to be made after a death in the family, last weekend. Please confirm any
reports you’re interested in, since we probably didn’t.)
MONDAY, 10/18: ACI, amx???, ctg???, tcs???, ELS, HXL, PHG, md???, nvr???, STT,
STLD, ter???, ZION
TUESDAY, 10/19: acad???, arr???, axta???, BK, bhe???, cni???, DOV, FITB,
HAL, HWC, hcsg???, iclr???, IBKR, ISRG, IRDM, JNJ, KSU, LRCX, lvs???,
MAN, MRTN, NFLX, ntgr???, OMC, PM, PG, PZN, SBNY, stc???, LRN, SYF,
SNV, tdy???, eric???, TRV, UFPI, UAL, WDFC
WEDNESDAY, 10/20: ABT, ab???, ANTM, aqms???, asm:???, BKR, BANR, BIIB, CP,
CFG, CNS,, CMA, CVLG, CCI, CSX, DFS, ehth???, EFX, FCFS, GL, GGG, tv???,
HLX, HCCI, IBM, KALU, KM, KNX, LSTR, LAD, MTB, MKTX, MMLP, MSM, NDAQ,
NEE, NEP, nxgn???, NTRS, BPOP, PPG, XMM, REXR, RLI, rhi???, RUSHA, SEIC, SLG,
sglb???, SLM, SCL, STRT, FTI, THC, TSLA, TZOO, USAP, VMI, VNE, VZ, WSO,
wst???, WGO, wrld???, zdge???
THURSDAY, 10/21: SRCE, abb???, ALK, ALLE, ALLY, AAL, T, AN, OZK, BRJI, BCS, BX,
SAM, CSL, cri???, CE, GTLS, CMG, CROX, DHR, BOOM, DOW, EEFT, FCX,
GATX, GPC, GRC, GBX, HRI, HFWA, IIIN, INTC, IPG, IQV, KEY, LNN, MMC, MAT,
NUE, OLN, POOL, pds???, PSMT, DGX, rci???, SAFE, SCHN, sIfy???, SNAP, SNA,
SCKT, SON, LUV, SIVB, TSCO, TPH, TRN, trtn???, UNP, USX, VLO, VICR, WHR
FRIDAY, 10/22: AIMC, AXP, ALV, CLF, DSKE, GNTX, HCA, HON, MNR,
RF, ROP, SLB, STX, SMPL, VFC
EVENTS: ("V-"=Virtual;
"D-"=Digital)
SUNDAY, 10/17
ABA Am. Bankers Ass’n Annual Conference (Tampa FL thru 19th)
SNAC Int’l Executive Leadership Forum (Marco Island FL thru 19th)
ACerS 123rd Annual Mtg at Materials Science & Technology (Columbus
OH thru 21st)
ANA 146th Annual Int’l V-Symposium of Cannabinoid Research Society
(thru 19th)
ASRM Am. Society for Reproductive Medicine Scientific Congress (Hybrid
Baltimore MD thru 21st)
SnowMobile USA (Milwaukee WI)
ASCP Society of Clinical Psychopharmacology Fall V-Meeting
Las Vegas International Film Festival
Miami Dolphins vs JAX (Jacksonville) Jaguars (9:30am edt, Tottenham, UK, CBS
[VIAC])
MONDAY, 10/18
JPMorgan 3rd Media & Communications Industry Panel Forum (NY
thru 19th)
Credit Suisse 10th Real Estate CEO V-Conference
HSBC Future Consumer V-Week (thru 22nd)
MedTrade East (Atlanta GA thru 20th)
IMPACT Smart Manufacturing & R&D V-Summit—SCOPE Procurement (thru
22nd)
SPIE V-OptiFab (thru 21st)
InnoCos Int;l Beauty Innovation Summit/Cosmetic Manufacturers/Distributors (Santa
Monica CA thru 19th)
29th NASPP Stock Plan Professionals (Hybrid+OnDemand)
NDIA Future Force Capabilities Conference/Expo (Columbus GA thru 21st)
Apple Inc (AAPL) Launch event, 4pm pdt)
TUESDAY, 10/19
Berenberg Pan-European Discovery USA V-Conference (thru 20th)
Bernstein EU Airlines: State of the Sector Update webinar
Air & Waste Management Ass’n MEGA Symposium (Indianapolis IN thru 20th)
PEI Private Equity Int’l Operating Partners Forum (NY thru 21st)
ShopTalk Fall V-MeetUp (thru 21st)
Interphex (Pharma & MedDevice Manufacturing (NY thru 21st)
EASTEC (W. Springfield MA thru 21st)
WWD Sourcing Summit Inflection Point (NY)
IAPP Privacy, Security, Risk Summit (San Diego CA thru 22nd)
ESGCT European Society of Advanced Cell Therapies & Tissue Engineering (Brussels
Belgium thru 22nd)
Best Buy (BBY) Launches Black Friday Deals Today
WEDNESDAY, 10/20
Council of Supply Chain Pro’s EDGE Annual Tech Conference (Atlanta + SoCal thru
22nd)
WEEC World Energy Engineering V-Conference (thru 22nd)
Electronics, Software & Hardware Integration for NextGen Vehicles (virtual
– EDT)
World Drug Safety Congress (Boston MA thru 21st)
RE-WORK NY A.I. in Banking V-event
RE-WORK Conversational A.I. in Retail V-Summit
Cain Brothers Healthcare Conference (NY thru 21st)
World Business Forum (NY thru 21st)
FDA General & Plastic Surgery Devices Panel of MedDevices V-AdCom
THURSDAY, 10/21
National Hardware Show (Las Vegas thru 23rd)
Oxford Global Biomarkers Series US (San Diego CA thu 22nd)
Glaucoma Innovation V-Showcase
BINC BetterInvesting National Convention (Dallas TX thru 24th)
European MidCap D-Event (thru 22nd)
FRIDAY, 10/22
VidCon Now (Anaheim CA, unless service workers strike thru 24th)
11th World Itch V-Congress (thru 23rd)
FEDA Foodservice Equipment Distributors (Milan IT thru 26th)
EA launches "Battlefield 2042" video game—unless delayed again
FILMS OPENING: "Dune," w/Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Rerguson, Zendaya,
Oscar Isaac, in another adaptation of Frank Herbert’s SciFi novel, via Warner Bros (T)
& HBO MAX. "The French Dispatch," w/Lea Seydoux, Timothee
Chalamet, Christoph Waltz, Owen Wilson, a collection of stores published in "The
French Dispatch Magazine," a Wes Anderson film purchased by Fox Searchlight (DIS).
"Ron’s Gone Wrong," the story of Barney & his friend Ron, a
digitally-connected device that malfunctions against the backdrop of the social media age
that launches them on a journey to learn about true friendship—the clip says, with
voices of Jack Dylan Glazer, Zach Galifianadkis, Ed Helms, Olivia Colman, via 20th
Century Studios (DIS). "Broadcast Signal Intrusion," w/Henry Shum
Jr, Kelley Mack, Chris Sullivan, Anthony E. Cabral, at the 57th Chicago Film
Festival as we type, via MPI Media Group. "Warning," w/Pagtrick Schwarzenegger,
Alex Pettyfer, Agata Alexander, Rupert Everett, in limited release, via Lionsgate
Entertainment (LGF.A).
SATURDAY, 10/23
InfoComm Connected (Orlando FL thru 29th) PRIOR OUTLOOK HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2021 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a
recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s,
alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,
Regards
Sandi Lynne
(c) 1998--2021
Sandi Lynne