Here's What You missed LAST Week
Here's What You missed LAST Week
NOT QUITE ALL, RETAIL ALL THE TIME
August 14—18, 2017 Because Retailers big and small dominate the Earnings Calendar, it
may feel like All RETAIL, All the Time but that won’t really be the case. In fact,
there are a few tech heavy hitters reporting earnings, this week, including NetApp,
Synopsys, Cisco, Alibaba, Applied Materials, heavy equipment manufacturer Deere & Co,
along with defense contractor Caci. Can Deere do what Caterpillar did with its recent
Quarterly report? Run to the upside as if it was the last bargain stock in the world?
But Retail is not just a feature on the Earnings Calendar, because we’ll also hear
about July US Retail Sales, on Tuesday, US Q2 (p) eCommerce Sales, on Thursday, and, even,
UK July Retail Sales in the wee hours of Thursday morning, while we’ll hear about
China’s July Retail Sales, overnight Sunday, shortly after I post. Other items of
interest on the Economic Calendar, apart from global retail sales, includes a very light
US Treasury issuance calendar, that ends on Tuesday, with $20B of 52-week bills offered.
Housing peppers the Economic Calendar, with the NAHB (Homebuilders) Aug. Housing Market
Index released Tuesday, US July Housing Starts/Building Permits, on Wednesday,
China’s July Property & House Prices on Thursday, with Canada’s July
Existing Home Sales, for that matter, out Tuesday, too. Some Canadian provinces have
tightened requirements for home purchases, and/or enacted taxes on home sales, to slow the
foreign—particularly Chinese—money that was looking to hide out in Canadian
property, despite China’s attempt to clamp down on currency outflows. Chinese inflows
to Canada were boosting home prices to sometimes overinflated heights, now cooled with new
taxes, as Sunday nigh/early Monday’s Teranet/National Bank July Canada Home Price
Index is likely to show for another consecutive month. .
In addition to Retailers big and small reporting earnings, this week, Target (Wed. a.m.)
& Walmart (Thurs. a.m.), the largest of them, TJ Maxx (Tues. a.m.) & Ross Dress
for Less Stores (Thurs. p.m.), the ones expected to please the most, there’s also L
Brands (Wed. p.m.) the newest member of the naughty list, after discontinuing swim &
apparel at Victoria’s Secret, last year, posting declining comp store sales this
year, as a result. and GAP Stores (Thurs. p.m.), for some a newly designated "safe
play" in retail, for outperformance at Old Navy, and its worst performing
division—Banana Republic—also its smallest. Then, again, anyone who thinks of
GAP Stores as safe, hasn’t noticed that shoppers no longer flood its namesake when
merchandise is 40% off, or more, not even when there’s an added, Sales Tax Holiday,
to reduce prices by another 5—8%, as there was in several states on August 4th—7th.
In addition to retail earnings, one of the largest events of the week will be MAGIC, the
massive apparel expo so large it nudged World Shoe to join its show in Las Vegas, instead
of holding its own, on other days. And while they were at it, MAGIC managed to get the PGA
to move its merchandise show to concurrent dates with MAGIC, in Las Vegas, too, even as
NSRA for shoe retailers moved its education conference to MAGIC, as did Apparel Sourcing
Summit, and Off-Price Apparel Show, to some, thought of as the competitors. So, as long as
so many manufacturers and retailers will be in Las Vegas, Citi, Wolfe Research and other
investment houses will be setting up shop, hosting clients, and sometimes, manufacturers
at dinners with clients. There’s one competitor that hasn’t, yet, caught the
‘join MAGIC’ bug: eTail East will take place this week but in Boston, not Las
Vegas, ironically, starting the day Amazon hosts its AWS Summit, in New York—AWS, no
doubt, a host for numerous eTail participants.
Aside from retail & apparel, EnerCom, The Oil & Gas Conference starts in Denver,
Sunday, as I post. Like MAGIC, there are a few I-banks planning on doing hosting duties at
EnerCom, including the 2 that will set up shop at MAGIC. The I-banks will host clients and
Oil & Gas presenters, over drinks, coffee, dinner, and breakfast. Leerink will be busy
with small healthcare events, Ribs ‘n Bones on Memphis, Monday, and on Tuesday,
‘Heart of Health Care Facilities" in Nashville. D.A. Davidson is hosting
Technology, Tuesday, Wedbush PacGrow Healthcare, in NY.
Note ASRA, for Retina Specialists, which started Saturday, because Regeneron & Eylea,
for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) could be the stars, again. What few casual
observers and, even, some traders don’t know is that Eylea is, also, approved as a
treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer, under the brand name Zaltrap—perhaps one
of the strangest dual use drugs in medical history. .
Piper Jaffray’s Global Agriculture Symposium, Nomura/Instinet’s media, Internet
& Telecom/Communications Conference, UBS’ Genomics 2.0 Summit, and Citi’s
Insurance & Asset Managers Forum, all starting Monday, highlight a mini flurry of
I-bank events, before the summer lull returns until right after Labor Day. Also notable,
Citi’s 1-1 MLP/Midstream Infrastructure Conference, RBC’s Restaurants &
Consumer Staples, Raymond James’ Park City TMT Summit, OpCo’s Boston Oncology
Insight Summit, Stephens’ Southeast Bank Field Trip, and OpCo’s Midwest
Corporate Access Day all start—and in some cases, also, end—Wednesday. Note how
loosely RBC uses the term "consumer Staples;" Johnson & Johnson is
presenting there. Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd and Equifax, on the other hand, have scheduled
traveling investor days, bringing their IR & other Execs to clients, instead of
clients coming to their Hdqtrs or an I-bank auditorium.
Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, part of a weekend of classic car auctions, often
offers a good read on how optimistic the 1.0% are. Then, again, LABACE, for Latin American
Business Aviation probably won’t be as buoyant as similar Expos are in other areas of
the world. Between Brazil’s recession and bribery trails, and Argentina’s
political turmoil, that’s 2 big countries probably not ordering too many business
jets, this year.
And if none of the above gets your attention, we have 2 other tidbits. Tuesday is the
deadline to request a redemption from a hedge fund, whose Quarter ends September 30th,
if the fund requires 45 days notice. Also, Wednesday, the FOMC will public the Minutes of
its July 25—26th Meeting. Since there was no press conference after the
July Meeting, and many expect the balance sheet unwind to begin next month, it’s
quite possible the July Minutes will be more specific than FOMC members have been, Yellen
included, hinting that "very soon" means September. Furthermore, NY Fed Pres.
Dudley gave 2 speeches that led the Street to believe there won’t be any rate hikes
while the balance sheet unwind gets underway, at least not initially. Should Yellen and
other members of the FOMC have discussed that notion, and decided that the Street is
misleading itself, that topic could, well, turn up in the minutes. Any suspicion that
Yellen prefers waiting for meetings with press conferences to get more specific could well
be unfounded, as we may find out Wednesday. On the other hand, Kashkari and a couple of
other FOMC voters want inflation to get closer to the FOMC’s 2.0% target, before any
more rate increases are announced. The Minutes are where support or dissent from that
desire could well be a highlight of the minutes. Kashkari, of course, did NOT dissent
against the June rate hike but has spoken explicitly against additional hikes while
inflation remains so far below the FOMC target.
All in, with Retail so prominent on this week’s schedule, the problem children of the
S&P are front and center, which may make it that much harder for stocks to recover the
rest of the ground lost, last Thursday. In fact, while Target upsided, there’s a lot
riding on Walmart and Home Depot (Tues.) to perform, and even some pressure on Target to
deliver the upside promised, and probably a little more to really please. The bulls have
their work cut out for them, this week. Some downside protection and cash couldn’t
hurt, especially with a Pres. bullying a madman in North Korea, both of them used to
getting their way. Trump’s pissing fight makes me extremely uncomfortable. How bout
you?
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 08/13
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Japan (P) Q2 GDP, Deflator Private
Consumption, Business Spending
China July Retail Sales, Industrial
Production, Fixed Asset Investments
Teranet/National Bank July Canada Home Price
Index
MONDAY, 08/14
US Treasury Auctions $39B 3-, & $33B 6-month Bills
Pres. Trump spends today in NY at Trump Tower
Select Southern K-12 Public Schools Reopen (i.e. Palm Beach County FL)
V.P. Mike Pence touring Central & South America (One way to quash rumors he's
campaigning for Pres. behind the scenes)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
UK July CPI, Retail Price Index, PPI, June
House Price Index
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
TUESDAY, 08/15
US July Retail Sales
Empire State NY Fed Aug. Manufacturing Survey
US July Import/Export Prices
US June Business Inventories
NAHB Aug. Housing Market Index
US Treasury Auctions $20B 52-week Bills
Canada July Existing Home Sales
Pres. Trump Returns to Bedminster NJ until White House is reopened
US June TICS
Holidays in India, South Korea & Italy
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
RBA’s (Aussie) Ellis speaks
(Canberra)
China July FX net Settlement
Italy Q2 (P) GDP
UK ILO Jun Unemployment Rate/Change,
July Claims Avg Weekly Earnings
Eurozone Q2 GDP
WEDNESDAY, 08/16
FOMC publishes Minutes of the July 25—26th Meeting (2pm et)
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
July US Housing Starts/Building Permits
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
Canada June Int’l Securities Transactions
EIA weekly Petroleum/Distillates/Gasoline Report (w/e 08/11)
3-way NAFTA Renegotiations start between Mexico, US, Canada (D.C.)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Japan July Trade Balance
French Q2 Unemployment Rate
UK July Retail sales
Hong Kong July Unemployment Rate
Eurozone June Trade Balance, July CPI
ECB Releases Minutes of its Monetary Policy
Meeting
THURSDAY, 08/17
US weekly Jobless Claims
Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
Canadian Security Traders Ass’n Conference (Ottawa Canada thru 20th)
US July Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
Q2 US eCommerce Sales
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
Fed’s Kaplan participates in moderated Q&A hosted by Lubbock Chamber of
Commerce (1pm)
Fed’s Kashkari participates in moderated Q&A @Edina Rotary Club (MN
1:45p,)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
China July Property/House Prices
Eurozone June current Account
FRIDAY, 08/18
Canada July CPI
U.M. (P) Aug. Consumer Sentiment
Fed’s Kaplan participates in moderated Q&A @Dallas Community College
Conference (10:15am)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Quadruple Options/Qtrly Futures Expire
WEEKS AHEAD: 08/21 Sweden’s Riksbank MPC Meets (Stockholm
08/24—26 K.C. Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Draghi & Yellen)
09/04 U.S. Markets Closed for Labor Day Holiday
09/05 Fed Gov. Brainard speaks @Economic Club of NY
RBA (Aussie) MPC meets
09/06 Fed’s Beige Book
Bk of Canada MPC Rate Meeting
Sweden’s Riskbank MPC Rate Meeting (Decision on 09/07)
09/07 ECB MPC Meeting followed by Draghi Press Conference
NY Fed’s Dudley speaks at Money Marketeers of NYU
09/14 Swiss National Bank MPC Meets
BoE MPC Rate Decision + Minutes
EARNINGS: (We ignore "the" in a corporate
name unless it’s integral to the ticker. i.e. HD on Tues. A question mark after a
ticker means the day is confirmed but the time is not. Any company that didn’t
confirm its earnings release day by Thursday, 08/10, is not included here. We’ve
highlighted all the retailers reporting, to demonstrate their dominance, not because each
of them is important in the scheme of things—though HD, TGT & TJX certainly are.)
MONDAY, 08/14: a.m. AEY, ASUR, ATNX, BADFF, BASI, BSTG, BDMS, BCLI?, CSIQ, CASI,
CETX, CHPE, EBIO, ELTK, ENSV, EVK, FTEO, GALT, JD, JGWE, LIQT, PETQ, RPRX?, SORL, SYY,
TGEN, TGA, URRE, VBLT, VTSI, WOW
p.m. ACUR, ADK. AKER, APHB, AST, ATTO, LIFE, AVH, BRFH,
BKYI, CGIX, CRTN, CLSN, HOTR, CALI, JRJC, CIDM, CDTI, CLIR, CMLS, CW, DGLT, DGLY, DYSL,
EGI, EVOK, EXTR, DAVE, FATE, FSAM, FSI, FSM, FTEK,. FUJIY?, FLL, FSNN, GALE, GECC, GVP,
HEB, HOLI, ICCC, IDN, MARA, MBII, MXPT, MBOT, MEEC, NEPT, NETS, NBEV, ONTX, OXBR, PANL,
TEUM, PRKR, PYDS, PGH, PLAB, PFSCF, METC, RLOG, REED, RPRX?, SBS, SSC, SGLB, SITO, SKYS?,
SOI, ANY, SENR, TEAR, VFFIF, VJET, WPRT
TUESDAY, 08/15: a.m. AAP, BITA, COH, DKS, ESLT, HD, QIWI,
SNMP, SYPR, TJX
p.m. A, CATS, FLXS, INPCF, JKHY, OBSV, FENG, STAF, URBN,
VIAV, WYY, ZPIN
WEDNESDAY, 08/16: a.m. BAK, CTRN, CYRN, ENZY, ITRN, MICT, MSGN, PARNF, PTNR,
PFGC, PNTR, TGT, TISA, TWMC, XNET
p.m. BGG, CACI, CSCO, GPRK, IMMU, LB,
NTAP, SPTN, SMRT, SNPS, TOUR, VIPS
THURSDAY, 08/17: a.m. BABA, BONT, BKE, CATO, HTHT, XRF, GFI,
GOGL, HMY, LANC, LYTS, MSG, SSI, SCMWY, WMT
p.m. ATGE, CRMT, AMAT. CIB, FFHL, GPS, GLOB,
LTM, NWY, ROST, SPKKY, SPWH, ZOES
FRIDAY, 08/18: a.m. DE, EL, FL, HIBB p.m. BRID
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 08/13
ASRA –Retina Specialists (Boston MA thru 15th)
Off-Price Apparel Show @MAGIC (Las Vegas NV thru 15th)
Podiatry Education Residency Summit East (Teaneck NJ)
India International Gold Convention (Goa India)
NLA Nat’l Clinical Lipid Update & Scientific Sessions (Indianapolis IN)
Wikimania (Montreal Canada)
Macy*s (M) "Shop for a Cause" Benefiting March of Dimes & Other
Charities
OTAKON (Japanese version of ComicCon w/anime Washington DC)
STARTING SUNDAY, 08/13
EnerCom The Oil & Gas Conference (Denver CO
thru 17th)
Defense Intelligence Ass’n (St Louis MO thru 16th)
Apparel’s Sourcing Summit @MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 16th)
APCO Public Safety Communications Conference (Denver CO thru 16th)
ICoMSFT" Internacional Congress of Meat Science & Technology (Cork Ireland
thru 18th)
Xchange U: IT Security Xchange (Orlando FL thru 15th)
World Congress of Surgery (Basel Suisse thru 17th)
Intel (INTC) IDF discontinued, claiming there’s plenty on its website to help
developers without it
Teen Choice Awards Fox (FOX) TV
MONDAY, 08/14
Nomura/Instinet Media & Internet, + Telecom/Communications Conference (NY thru
15th)
UBS Genomics 2.0 Summit (Park City UT thru 15th)
Piper Jaffray Global Agriculture Symposium (Minneapolis MN thru 15th)
Citi Insurance & Asset Managers Forum (Boston)
Leerink Ribs ‘N Bones (Healthcare) Bus Tour (Memphis TN)
Citi Hosted Meetings @MAGIC (Las Vegas)
MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 16th)
World Shoe Show @MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 17th)
NSRA Shoe Retailers Education Conference @MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 16th)
PGA Fashion & Demo Experience @MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 16th)
eTail East (Boston thru 17th)
Comprehensive Review of Pain (Madison WI thru 18th)
CUNA: America’s Credit Union Economics & Investments Conference (Las Vegas
thru 16th)
CIO 100 Symposium & Awards (Colorado Springs thru 16th)
RISI Pulp & Paper Latin America Conference (Sao Paulo Brasil thru 16th)
Amazon (AMZN) AWS Summit (NY)
Coach (COH) x Selena Gomez Collection (handbags developed with spokesperson/singer
Selena Gomez) hits online today, for pre-orders. COH Stores get the bags on 09/01
Microchip (MCHP) Worldwide MASTERS Conference (Phoenix AZ thru 19th)
Usenix Security Symposium (Vancouver BC Canada thru 18th)
TUESDAY, 08/15
Wolfe Research EnerCon Event (Denver CO)
Susquehanna Oilfields Services Conference (NY)
Leerink Ptnrs Heart of Healthcare Facilities (Nashville TN thru 16th)
D.A Davidson 9th Annual Technology Forum (NY)
Wedbush PacGrow Healthcare Conference (NY thru 16th)
Stephens Poultry & Egg Industry Market Update (Webcast)
Healthtech NGx Next Generation DX: Point of Care, Critical Care, Companion Dx Summit—Moving
Assays to the Clinic (Washington DC thr 18th)
LABACE (Latin American Business Aviation Conference/Expo (Sao Paulo Brasil thru 17th)
AGE: AustralAsian Gaming Expo (Sydney Australia thru 17th)
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM) w/Strategas clients (Austin & San Antonio)
Equifax Inc (EFX) Investor Meetings (Los Angeles)
Hedge Fund Redemption Requests for end of Qtr, as a rule, must be in by today
NXP (NXPI) FTF Connects (Detroit MI thru 16th)
Square Enix launches "Agents of Mayhem" in North America
WEDNESDAY, 08/16
FOMC Minutes of 7/26—27 Meeting (2pm et)
Citi 1-1 MLP/Midstream Infrastructure Conference (Las Vegas thru 17th)
RBC Restaurants & Consumer Staples Investor Day (NY)
Raymond James Park City (TMT) Summit (Park City UT thru 17th)
OpCo Boston Oncology Insight Summit (Boston thru 17th)
Stephens Southeast Bank Field Trip (Charleston NC thru 17th)
Oppenheimer Midwest Corporate Access Day (Chicago)
Maxim Group Chicago Summer Conference (Chicago)
ISACA GRC 2017 (Dallas Ft Worth TX thru 18th)
NDIA Systems Engineering Division Expo (D.C.)
NCAD Nat’l Conference on Addiction Disorders (Baltimore MD thru 20th)
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM) w/Strategas Grp clients (Houston)
Equifax Inc (EFX) San Francisco Investor Meeting
IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) Investor Day Westbook ME 3:30pm est)
THURSDAY, 08/17
ACCF/SCAI Premier Int’l Interventional Cardiology (D.C. thru 20th)
Sign Business, Printwear, Graphics & Awards (Seacaucus NJ thru 19th)
Canadian Security Traders Ass’n Conference (Ottawa Canada thru 20th)
Macquarie Philippines Owners Access Conference (Manila thru 18th)
Rogers Corp (ROG) Investor Day (NYSE 8am est)
GenCon Indy (Indianapolis IN thru 20th)
FRIDAY, 08/18
24th Napa Pain Conference 9Napa valley CA thru 20th)
147th ACA Correctional Congress (St Louis MO thru 22nd)
Deutsche Bank dbAccess India Corporate Day (Singapore)
Nomura India Insurance Day—Life & non-Life (Mumbai India)
Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance (Pebble Beach CA thru 21st)
MOVIES OPENING: "The Hitman’s Bodyguard," with Ryan Reynolds,
Samuel L. Jackson, Gary Oldman, Salma Hayek, Elodie Yung, Tsuwayuki Saotome, the biggest
mystery why IMBD (Internet Database) overlooks Samuel L Jackson in its "cast"
list. LionsGate (LGF.A) distributing. "Logan Lucky," directed by
Steven Soderbergh, with Katerine Waterston, Daniel Craig, Channing Tatum, Hilary Swank,
Adam Driver, Seth MacFarlane, Katie Holmes. Amazon (AMZN) bought streaming rights,
and Bleeker Street Media ("Eye in the Sky") is distributing the Charlotte
Speedway heist story. "Patti Cake$" Aussie Danielle Macdonald plays
aspiring rapper Patricia Dombrowski, aka Patti Cakes, aka Killa P, allegedly from New
Jersey. Macdonald is probably the aspiring rapper writer/director Geremy Jasper drew from,
said to be the break-out hit from Sundance, winning distribution from Fox (FOX)
Searchlight.
SATURDAY, 08/19
18th Annual Intensive Review of Cardiology (Cleveland OH thru 23rd)
NY NOW (formerly NYIGF; NY thru 23rd)
Ex*Tracts @NY NOW (formerly Int’l Housewares Show NY thru 23rd)
Gourmet Housewares Show @NYIGF now, NY NOW (thru 23rd)
TSE: Total Store Expo NACDS (Chain Drug Stores San Diego CA thru 22nd)
Ascend Nat’l Pan-Asian Leaders National Convention (Houston TX thru 21st)
EARLIER
2017 COMMENTS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2017 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a
recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s
alone, and should be just one factor in most complete due diligence.
Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,
Regards
Sandi Lynne
(c) 1998--2017
Sandi Lynne