What You missed LAST Week
BULLS & I-BANKS’ LAST HURRAH!
December 1st—6th 2019 Except for Vice Chairman for Regulation & Supervision, Randall Quarles, testifying on Wednesday, at the US House, and Thursday at the US Senate, members of the FOMC are largely silent, this week—despite the NY FRB’s Friday Conference, held jointly with Communulife, NYCity Health + Hospitals, and the Robert W. Johnson Foundation’s Healthy Communities Conference Series: New Sources of Place-based Capital to Improve Upstream Social Determinants of Health. Call it the quiet period before the mid-month FOMC 2-day meeting, starting the 10th.
New ECB President Christine Lagarde is prominent, this week, testifying at Parliament, along with participating in a ceremony marking the 10th Anniversary of the Lisbon Treaty. The events are Sunday and overnight into Monday, US time, in Brussels.
But it’s also a new month, which means the usual PMIs, ISMs, US Vehicle sales from everyone but Ford & Gm, plus Friday’s November Unemployment Report. Friday will end with Oct Consumer Credit, at 3pm, and it’s all pretty much over by then. The Bank of Canada MPC is meeting, as is the Royal Bank of India, both Wednesday. On Wednesday, Pres. Trump can attend the US House Judiciary Committee hearings—even have his counsel question witnesses the Dems might call but he hasn’t accepted that invitation. Yet.
The Earnings Calendar lacks enormous headliners, other than Salesforce.com, Tuesday, Korn Ferry Wednesday, along with GIII, RH (formerly Restoration Hardware), Royal Bank of Canada, and Synopsys. Thursday promises Brown Forman, Hovnavian, Signet Jewelers, Tiffany, TD Bank, and Ulta Beauty. Friday, Big Lots (where I just bought my annual Black Friday red, 12-cup programmable, coffee maker for $9.99), and Genesco. An interesting mix of companies that won’t lift or bury equities, one way or another.
But get a load of the Investment Bank conferences—the last Hurrah referred to in the title of this piece, Monday & Tuesday, especially, then again, Thursday, with one last flurry still to come next week but this week really the last hurrah, because traders will take a quick look at Friday’s Unemployment Report before balancing out their portfolios for the year. If you took profits during the year, this is the week to take losses, before everyone else is doing it after this week. OPEC & OPEC+ meet to renew or reset production quotas but don't expect oil to do much of anything, this year.
Note Biogen will hold a webcast on Thursday, at 11am, to discuss results from a Phase 3 Aducanumb Clinical Trial, before holding a Q&A with investors, following that CTAD data release, at 5pm est. Viacom & CBS should close their merger, Wednesday, even as Disney World Orlando opens the Star Wars: Rise of Resistance ride, at the recently opened (August) new Star Wars Land. And while you’d think industry conferences would be winding down. In addition to the CTAD for Clinical Trials in Alzheimer’s Disease, ASH, the 61st American Society of Hematology will open its Annual Meeting on Saturday, the 7th. It’s one of the most highly anticipated meetings of the year, in a crucial area of research.
The bulls are clearly in control, despite Friday’s losses, and likely to hold on, through this week. Sooner or later, profit taking—or loss taking to offset gains from earlier in the year—are bound to appear, before any Santa Claus rally gets underway. For those who adhere to the strictest of market lore, the Santa Claus rally starts after Christmas and runs though the end of the year. But the really big rally is the one that starts after January 1st, usually involving the prior year’s biggest losers and small caps. So keep an eye on the new lows list through the end of the year, to anticipate those equities likely to rise the most, come January 2nd—5th. If you’re so inclined.
ECONOMIC:
SUNDAY, 12/01
As of today, Chinese can Import Drugs from Foreign Countries (China)
ECB Pres Lagarde participates in ceremony w/presidents of EU Parliament, EU Commission & European Council marking 10th Anniversary of the Lisbon Treaty (Brussels Belgium)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Japan Q3 Capital Spending, Corporate Sales/Inventories/Profits
China Nov Caixin Manufacturing PMI
12th Jt ECB/CEPR Labour Market Workshop-Labour Market Adjustments (Frankfurt DE thru 3rd)
ECB Pres. Lagarde testifies @European Parliament ECON Hearing (Brussels 15:00cet)
BoE Chief Economist Haldane among speakers @BoE Economic modelling & forecasting here (London UK thru 6th)
World Islamic Banking Conference (Bahrain thru 4th)
Trump off to UK for NATO Heads of State Meeting (see below)
MONDAY, 12/02
Markit US Nov Manufacturing PMI (9:30am et)
US Nov ISM Manufacturing Index/Employment/Prices Paid/New Orders (10am et)
US Oct Construction Spending
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-. & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
RBA (Aussie) Interest Rate Decision + Presser (12/03 local time)
BoE MPC Treasury Cmte Hearings
ECB’s Couere participates in event organized by ECB Representation (Brussels)
Ward’s US Nov Total Vehicle Sales
NATO Heads of State & Government Meeting (Hertfordshire UK thru 4th)
TUESDAY, 12/03
US Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fiat Chrysler & Foreign Automakers start announcing Nov US sales
ISM Nov NY Business Conditions
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Hong Kong Nov Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Nov Services/Composite PMI
Eurozone Oct PPI
ECB’s Lagarde & Couere @Eurogroup Meeting (Brussels)
WEDNESDAY, 12/04
US weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
ADP Nov US Private Sector Employment Count/Change (8:15am et)
US Markit Nov Services/Composite PMI (9:45am et)
FCPA 36th Int’l Conference on Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (D.C. thru 5th)
Bk of Canada MPC Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference
Trump & his Counsel Invited to Attend US House Judiciary Cmte Impeachment Hearing
US House Judiciary Cmte starts Impeachment Hearings
Fed V Chair Quarles speaks on Supervision & Regulation @US House FinServ Cmte (10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am w/e 11/29)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et
Japan Reuters Tankan Dec Index
RBNZ (New Zealand) publishes Bank Capital Review Decisions
RBI (India) Interest Rate Decision/Cash Reverse Ratio/Reverse REPO rate
Eurozone Q3 GDP, Gov’t Expenditures, Unemployment Rate/Change/Oct Retail Sales
OPEC & OPEC+ Meet (Vienna Austria thru 6th)
ECB’s de Guindos participates in ECOFIN Meeting (Brussels)
THURSDAY, 12/05
Challenger Nov Lay-offs Report (7:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US Oct Trade Balance
Bk of Canada Dpty Gov Lane provides Economic Progress Report Press Conference, Oct Merchandise Trade Balance
US Oct Factory Orders (10am et)
Deadline for Pres Trump to respond to Supreme Court on Release of his Tax Returns
Fed V. Chair Quarles on Supervision & Regulation @US Senate Banking Cmte (10am)
US Oct (F) Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Japan Oct Labor Cash Earnings/Overtime, Overall Household Spending
German Oct Industrial Production
French Oct Trade Balance
UK Halifax Nov House Price Index
FRIDAY, 12/06
US Nov. Unemployment Report/Change/Participation/Wages/Workweek (8:30am et)
Canada Nov Employment Report/Change/Wages/Participation Rate
NY FRB/Communilife/NYC Health+Hospitals & Robert W Johnson Foundation--Healthy Communities Conference Series: New Sources of Place-based Capital to Improve Upstream Social Determinants of Health
U.M. Dec (P) Consumer Sentiment/Expectations (10am et)
US Oct (F) Wholesale Trade Inventories
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
US Oct Consumer Credit (3pm et)
FILMS OPENING: "The Aeronauts," with Felicity jones, Eddie Redmayne, Himesh Patel, Phoebe Fox, written & directed by Tom Harper, produced by Amazon Studios, distributed by eOne in the UK, AMZN in the US . "Playmobil: The Movie," with Anya Taylore-Joy, Gabriel Bateman, Jim Gaffigan, Daniel Radcliffe, distributed by STXfilms. "Little Joe," with Emily Beecham, Ben Whishaw, Kerry Fox, distribution by Mark Cuban’s Magnolia Pictures. Appears Disney’s "Frozen 2" will again rule the box office.
SATURDAY, 12/07
China Fx Reserves
Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day
WEEKS AHEAD: 12/10—11 FOMC Meets
12/11 FOMC post-Meeting Statement (2pm et)
Fed Chief Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
12/12 ECB MPC Interest Rate Decision
SNB (Swiss) MPC Interest Rate Decision
12/13 FRB Chicago 33rd Annual Economic Outlook Symposium
12/19 BoJ MPC Rate/QE Decision
BoE MPC Rate/QE Decision
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre- from post-market releases. This, "???" after a ticker, means we’ve seen the ticker on many competing Earnings Calendars but couldn’t confirm the date ourselves. Any company that didn’t confirm by Wednesday, 11/27, at 4pm, is not included. We usually check every IR site for every company supposed to report but now, frequently, hit a wall because we won’t permission cookies at all of them. This week, we just didn’t have the time to cook and entertain and check even half of them. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless integral to the ticker. It’s not for either Kroger or Michael’s (both Thursday.). Emboldened tickers are those we expect the Street and/or Media to focus on most, or those we believe will most impact a sector or stock indices, altogether, or a group that’s dominant during the week. It’s subjective, and you’re free to disagree..)
MONDAY, 12/02: COUP, DSX, fredq??, lee??, mesa???, seldq???, UTI, YIN,
TUESDAY, 12/03: AVAV, asna???, BMO, CONN, DCI, GSM, GLBS, HQY, LE, MRVL, QTT, CRM, WDAY, ZS
WEDNESDAY, 12/04: ALCO, ALOT, HOME, BNED, CPB, CMTL, DSGX, EMKR, FIVE, GIII, GEF, HRB, JW.A, KFY, MIND, MDB, FIZZ, POWL, PGNY, RH, RY, SEAC, SMTC, WORK, SMAR, SPWH, SNPS, TLYS, VRNT, VLGEA
THURSDAY, 12/05: AOBC, HOME, BF.B, BBW, CM, CLDR, COO, CULP, DOCU, DG, DOMO, DLTH, EZPW, EXPR, GWRE, HOV, IDT, JILL, KIRK, KR, MEI, MIK, OKTA, PDCO, SKIS, RTW, SASDY, SECO, SCWX, SIG, SGU, SMMT, TIF, TD, ULTA, YEXT, ZM, ZUMZ, ZUO
FRIDAY, 12/06: BIG, GCO, JOUT, ODC, ROOT, XIN
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 12/01
Black Friday Weekend Sales
STARTING SUNDAY, 12/01
MRS Int’l Materials Science Annual Meeting (Boston MA thru 6th)
AEMA Am. Exploration & Mining Ass'n 125th Annual Meeting (Sparks NV thru 6th)
RSNA Radiological Society of America Annual (Chicago IL thru 6th)
MONDAY, 12/02
Citi Basic Materials Conference (New York thru 4th)
Credit Suisse 23rd Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (Scottsdale AZ thru 5th)
Wells Fargo TMT Summit (Las Vegas NV thru 4th)
RBC Canadian Real Estate Unsecured Debt Conference (Toronto
Berenberg European Conference (Surrey UK thru 5th)
Broadband Forum Q4 Meeting (Panama City, Panama thru 5th)
JPMorgan South Africa Opportunities Conference (Cape Town So. Africa thru 3rd)
Citi Japan Executive Seminar (Tokyo thru 3rd)
Nomura Investment Forum (Tokyo Japan thru 6th)
Macquarie Western Australia Forum (Perth Australia thru 4th)
Nomura Ondia Corporate Day (Hong Kong thru 3rd)
Int’l Diabetes Federation Congress (Busan Korean thru 6th)
Aflac (AFL) 2020 Outlook teleconference (9am et)
Amazon (AMZN) AWS re:Invent (Las Vegas thru 6th)
Apple Inc (AAPL) Media Event on 2019 Beloved Apps & Games (NY)
GE (GE) Healthcare Investor Day (Chicago 9:30am est)
Newmont Goldcorp (NEM) 2020 Guidance Webcast (10am et)
TUESDAY, 12/03
Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference (NY thru 4th)
Credit Suisse 7th Industrials Conference (Manalapan FL thru 5th)
Barclays Gaming, Lodging, Leisure, Restaurant & Food Retail Conference (NY thru 4th)
Barclays Eat. Sleep. Play-It’s Not All Discretionary Conference (NY)
Piper Jaffray 31st Healthcare Conference (NY thru 5th)
Evercore ISI HealthCONx Conference (Boston thru 5th)
Credit Suisse 9th European Business Services Conference (NY thru 4th)
UBS Global Emerging Markets 1-on-1 Conference (NY thru 4th)
BMO Capital Growth Conference (oston thru 4th)
Citi 4th Cloud Forum @AWS re:Invent (Las Vegas)
Jefferies Public Cloud Summit (Las Vegas @ AWS)
Equities Leaders Summit (Miami Beach FL thru 5th)
ICSC (Shopping Centers) Centerbuild (Phoenix AZ thru 6th)
ARA 27th Agricultural Retailers Association (New Orleans LA thru 5th)
Hardware Marketing Council Winter Meeting (Wesley Chapel FL thru 5th)
Hart Energy Marcellus-Utica Midstream Conference/Expo (Pittsburgh PA thru 5th)
Gartner Application Strategies & Solutions Summit (Las Vegas thru 5th)
NSRA The Running Event (Austin TX thru 5th)
Scotiabank Mining Conference (Toronto ON Canada thru 4th)
Goldman Sachs European Industrials Conference (London thru 4th)
NASDAQ Investor Conference (London thru 4th)
Credit Suisse London Specialty Chemicals Conference (London)
UBS Global Real Estate CEO/CFO Conference (London thru 4th)
Battery Energy Storage (Birmingham UK thru 5th)
Video Exchange Streaming (London thru 4th)
JPMorgan 12th Brazil Opportunities Conference (Sao Paulo Brazil thru 5th)
UBS Australian Emerging Companies Conference Series: Food & Agribusiness (Sydney)
14th Gulf Petrochemical Summit (Dubai UAE thru 5th)
Jefferies Battlefin Alternative Data Discovery Day (Hong Kong)
Shanghai Automechanika Auto, Commercial & Electric Vehicle Expo (Shanghai China thru 6th)
HP (HPE) Discover 2019 (Munich DE thru 4th)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Investor Conference (8am est NYC)
WEDNESDAY, 12/04
UBS High Yield & Distressed Best Ideas into 2020 (NY)
JPMorgan Fixed Income Markets 2020 Outlook Conference (NY)
ROTH Cleantech Private Capital Day v2 (Irvine CA)
NIRI (IR Institute) Senior Roundtable Annual Meeting (Santa Barbara CA thru 6th)
Benchmark Co. Discovery One-on-One Conference (NY)
12th BIOMEDevice Expo (San Jose CA thru 5th)
CTAD 12th Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (San Diego CA thru 7th)
5th Annual Integrated Air & Missile Defense (D.C. thru 6th)
HIVE Housing Innovation Conference (Austin TX thru 5th)
17th World Congress on Insulin Resistance, Diabetes & Cardiovascular Disease (Los Angeles CA thru 7th)
20th SUO Society of Urologic Oncology (D.C. thru 6th)
GovEx Government Video Expo (D.C. thru 5th)
SportBusiness Dealmakers in Sports (NY)
Forbes Healthcare Conference (NY thru 5th)
Piper Jaffray Private Company Energy Conference (NY thru 5th)
Oil & Gas Council World National Oil Companies Assembly (London)
Societe General Premium Review (Paris FR thru 5th
BioData World (Basel Switzerland thru 5th)
Nomura 5G Tech Corporate Day (Hong Kong)
Uber (UBER) CEO Dara Khosroshahi speaks @Economic Club of NY (11:30am)
Viacom (VIA.B) merger with CBS (CBS) should close
THURSDAY, 12/05
Jefferies Business Services Summit (NY)
Jefferies Retail & Brands Summit (NY thru 6th)
Macquarie Asian Internet, Media & Education Conference (NY thru 6th)
Rocky Mountain BioInforomatics Conference (Snowmass CO thru 7th)
UBS Evidence Lab Conference (NY)
WBS 3rd Machine Learning & AI in Quantitative Finance Conference (NY thru 6th)
AAOMS Dental Implant Conference (Chicago thru 7th)
Bloomberg The Year Ahead (Tokyo)
Biogen (BIIB) Aducanumb Phase 3 Topline Results (11am est)
Biogen (BIIB) Q&A Following CTAD Presentation (5pm est)
Disney World (DIS), Orlando, opens Star Wars Rise of Resistance Ride @new Star Wars Land
Edwards LifeSciences (EW) Investor Day on the eve of ACC NY (8:30am et)
FRIDAY, 12/06
Citi 4th Annual Banker Forum (NY)
ACC NY Cardiovascular Symposium (NY thru 8th)
Ski & Snowboard Expo (Los Angeles thru 8th)
ESMO Perceptorship on Non-Resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Bilary & Pancreatic Cancer (Pairs FR thru 7th)
SATURDAY, 12/07
61st ASH—Am. Society of Hematology (Orlando thru 10th)
NAIC (State Insurance Commissioners) Nat’l Fall Meeting (Austin thru 10th) EARLIER 2019 OUTLOOK EXCERPTS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2019 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.