What You missed LAST Week
What You missed LAST Week
RETAILERS &
I-BANK CONFERENCES DOMINATE, with a side of Central Bankers
May 14—18, 2018 The Consumer Discretionary space will dominate Earnings, this week,
with reports from Macy*s, Nordstrom & Walmart, to name the 3 most notable names. WMT,
of course, is not about current earnings for the moment but, rather, about the billions
it’s spending for a majority stake in India’s Flipkart, the fact that it’s
giving up on the UK, selling ASDA to J Sainsbury, jumping from one boiling pot to another,
when it hasn’t really done a fantastic domestically, yet. But, also, we’ve
gotten ahead of the way we lay out the weekly Outlook Calendars, so let’s circle back
to the Economic Calendar, and take them in order.
The US Treasury won’t be offering a lot of debt, this week, just 4-week, 3-, &
6-month Bills, Monday, and $11B of reopened 10-year TIPS, on Thursday. Also Thursday, the
Treasury will announce its refunding plans, even as it just announced the April budget
surplus was at a record $214B. That would be thanks to Corporate fiscal taxes due March
15, and personal income taxes due April 15. Stocks often struggle less when Treasury
auctions don’t disappoint. There’s nothing on offer this week capable of
disappointing, short of a complete strike against US Debt.
Also this week, April Retail Sales & NAHB’s May Housing Market Index, both
Tuesday. Wednesday promises April Housing Starts & Building Permits, April Industrial
Production/Capacity Utilization, the latter likely strong, given shale oil drilling and a
freak spring snow storm that kept utilities in overdrive to warm homes & businesses.
Before markets open Monday, Fed’s Mester will speak in France, those from BoE
Governor Carney & ECB’s Praet probably not earth-shattering, since their topic is
Gender & Career Progression. More trembling is the opening of the new US Embassy in
Jeruselum, which has enraged just about everyone but Trump and his family members, along
with Israel’s government. The people of Israel may celebrate the move publicly but
privately they bemoan that Arab hatred for both Israel and US are at near all time highs.
Fed’s Bullard presents at CoinDesk’s Consensus 2018, in NY, Monday, part of
BlockChain Week New York. The Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings on the
nominations of Richard Clarida & Michelle Bowman to the Federal Reserve’s Board
of Governors. Neither should encounter big issues getting confirmed. Fed’s Williams,
soon to move from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank to New York’s more
prestigious one, conferring on him a permanent vote at FOMC meetings, will speak at the
Economic Club of Minnesota, Thuesday. Fed’s Bostic will provide an Economic Update
Wednesday, the same day Bullard opens the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture, not quite the
venue for monetary policy proclamations. Thursday, Fed’s Kaplan & Kashkari are at
separate events, Kashkari, a well-entrenched dove on rates, answering questions put to him
by the Executive Director of the Minnesota Home Ownership Center. Many hours later, in
Frankfurt, Mester, a hawk, will keynote the 2nd day of the 3rd ECB
Macroprudential Policy & Research Conference, on "The Limits & Overlaps of
Macroprudential & Monetary Policy." Mester is hawkish enough that she’d find
a way to discuss her objection to the FOMC raising rates so slowly, no matter what the
topic. The topic of this conference works, perfectly, to her leanings. Still, she probably
would have been more comfortable speaking at the BoE/ESCoE/ONS Conference on Economic
Measurement, which questions the value of statistics and their interpretation.
Which brings us to Earnings. In addition to the 3 names mentioned above, Dick’s
Sporting Goods, Home Depot, VIPshop Holdings, Take-Two Interactive, Tencent,
Children’s Place, and JCPenney, stand out. But the week isn’t, exclusively, the
province of retailers or restaurants. Other notable reporters include Agilent, Invitation
Homes, Applied Materials, Canadian Solar, Cisco Systems, and Deere. Deere, known more for
agricultural machines than Caterpillar, and on a six month slide since the year began,
seemed to rally on CAT’s strong earnings, last week but left room for additional
gains if it reports a strong quarter and sees one ahead. Canadian Solar was a name I
wouldn’t usually mention but California’s new law requiring builders to install
solar panels on almost all new homes, starting in 2020, has opened my and other
traders’ eyes to the Canadian solar name, given the hefty tariffs on Chinese solar
panels. As always, filtering out the tickers to mention is very subjective. Feel free to
disagree.
Last, the Events Calendar bucks up just as retailers begin dominating the Earnings
Calendar. I try to sort the events by geographic region, first, then by what I think will
be most influential on stocks. So US events, trump Canadian ones, and are listed prior to
European ones, with Asia and Australia usually last. Within those parameters, I afford the
most weight to the investment houses with the most influence, and sometimes place related
events near the main one, to emphasize how many ancillary meetings spring up to capitalize
on a particular event. For Monday and Tuesday especially, this week, I did the best I
could. Rarely are days so filled with I-bank run conferences that they’re dizzying
but that’s where I was this week. I’m partial to events that don’t follow a
long string of similar ones, so JPMorgan’s 11th Annual Homebuilding &
Building Products Conference, in NY, took the top spot Monday. With interest rates rising,
even as home prices are rising strongly, and the calendar is at the height of the
builders’ season, it struck me as an event that portfolio managers (PMs) will be
eager to attend. But, really, any of the first 5 events that appear for Monday list could
have been on top. And no fewer than 3 I-banks are hosting China Conferences, this week.
And sometimes I have to scratch my head: while Tudor Pickering Holt’s Hotter ‘n
Hell Energy Conference starts Tuesday, Citi’s hosting Energy & Utilities in
Boston, Stephens is hosting energy in Little Rock Arkansas, and Deutsche Bank is hosting
Clean Tech, Utilities & Power in NY. And while JPM is the top dog for this week’s
homebuilding sector, Jefferies offers Residential Real Estate Housing Summit, also in NY,
even as Morgan Stanley will host E&P & Oil Services in Houston. Instinet’s
Gaming, Leisure, & Lodging Conference, Monday, has competition from Wells Fargo’s
9th Annual Gaming, Hospitality & Leisure Conference is nearly identical.
Believe me, I don’t mean to sound like I’m criticizing any of the I-banks.
Instead, I’m merely pointing out how I decide the hierarchy, and the schedule that
results with so many similar conferences occurring bunched together, because all the
I-banks observe a quiet period around the three weeks during which the most S&P
companies report their earnings, and most suspend conferences during the summer, when many
PMs are either at their summer homes or otherwise engaged with other activities.
Last week I discussed the potential for a post-earnings season rally that usually starts
this week. Traders jumped the gun and fanned the flames burning in bulls’ hearts,
reversing a long slide with a big rally. While I’m not expecting a rally similar to
last week’s to occur this week, I do think that a period of backing and filling will
be followed by more gains, before the pre-Q2 earnings season jitters grip stocks.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 05/13
OVERNIGHT into US. Mon. a.m. et:
Fed’s Mester (hawk) speaks @GIC
"Central Banking Series with Banque de France" (2:45am et)
BoE Gov Carney & ECB’s Praet
speak BoE’s Gender & Career Progression Conference (London, 05/14 local time)
US Embassy Opening Ceremony for Move to
Jeruselum (Israel 05/14 local time)
MONDAY, 05/14
Canada Teranet/National Bank April Home Price Index
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills
Fed’s Bullard presents @ CoinDesk’s Consensus 2018 (9:40am et NY)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et
China April Retail Sales, Industrial
Production, Fixed Assets
German 18Q1 GDP + May ZEW survey of
Current Situation & Expectations
UK Mar. ILO Unemployment Rate/Change/Wkly
Earnings+April Jobless Apps
Eurozone March Industrial Production + Q1 GDP
TUESDAY, 05/15
US April Retail sales
Canada April Existing Home sales
Empire State NY Fed Manufacturing Survey
Senate Banking Cmte Hearings for Fed Reserve Board Nominees Clarida & Bowman
US April Manufacturers, Distributors, & Retail Inventories
NAHB May Housing Market Index
Fed’s Williams speaks @Economic Club of Minnesota w/Q&A (1:10pm MN)
US TICS
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Japan Q1 (P) GDP, Private Consumer &
Business Spending
China April New Home Prices
Bank of Iceland MPC Announces Interest Rate
Decision (Reykjaavik)
BoE/ESCoE/ONS Conference on Economic
Measurement (05/16 thru 17th)
ECB’s Draghi & Praet deliver
farewell wishes at ECB Conference honoring departure of ECB V.P. Constancio (Frankfurt)
WEDNESDAY, 05/16
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US April Housing Starts/Building Permits
Fed’s Bostic provides Economic Update w/Q&A (8:30am et Augusta GA)
US April Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et)
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (10am)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (w/e 05/10)
Fed’s Bullard opens the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture (St Lous MO 6:30pm)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
EU 25 April New Car Registrations
ECB’s (outgoing) V.P. Constancio,
ECB’s Laeven, & Irish CB Chief Lane+Peterson Institute’s Adam Posen @ECB’s
3rd Macoprudential Policy & Research Conference (Frankfurt 5/17 local time)
ECB’s Chief Economist Haldane closes
BoE/ESCoE/ONS Conference (05/17 local time)
THURSDAY, 05/17
US weekly Jobless Applications
Philly Fed May Business Outlook Survey (8:30am)
18Q1 US eCommerce Sales
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
Fed’s Kaplan speaks @Richardson Chamber of Commerce Annual Mtg (TX)
Fed’s Kaskari Q&A w/Exec Dir of MN Home Ownership Center (10:45am)
US Treasury Auctions $11B reopened 10-year TIPS
US Treasury Refunding Announcement
Bk of Mexico MPC Rate Decision
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Japan April CPI
China April FX Settlement
Eurozone March Current Account & Trade
Balance
Fed’s Mester keynotes Day 2 of 3rd
ECB Macroprudential Policy & Research Conference on Limits & Overlaps of
Macroprudential & Monetary Policy (3:45am et 05/18 local time Frankfurt)
FRIDAY, 05/18
Canada April Retail Sales +CPI
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North America Rig Count (1pm et)
SATURDAY, 05/19
UK CBI May Selling & Orders
UK’s Prince Harry Marries US’ (Rachel) Meghan Markle (TV/Streaming coverage
starts 7am et)
WEEKS AHEAD: 05/30 BoC (Canada)
MPC meets
06/12—13 FOMC Meets
06/13 FOMC Releases post-Meeting Statement + Updated SEP (rate hike expected)
FOMC Chief Powell's 2nd post-Meeting Press Conference
06/14 ECB MPC Meets
06/15 BoJ MPC Meets
06/21 BoE MPC Meets
SNB MPC Meets
Norges Bank MPC Meets
Bk of Mexico MPC Meets
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre-market. from
after-hours release times (too burdensome, especially weeks heavy weeks). We embolden
those names we expect to attract the most attention from traders, analysts &/or media,
whether we think the company is priceless or worthless and, sometimes, because we want to
bring readers’ attention to an overlooked name. Occasionally, it’s to remind
ourselves that we’re watching the name. Any company that didn’t confirm, at
least, the day, by noon, Thursday, 05/10, is not included. On the other hand, we do rely
on 3rd parties to provide accurate information, which sometimes isn’t. Or,
the date can be set, and then, rescheduled, that news not getting through to us. We ignore
"the" in a company name unless it’s integral to the ticker. We cover only
the major money center banks & largest regionals, along with larger foreign banks
trading in the US, via ADRs.)
MONDAY, 05/14: AGRO, A, APHB, AMRS, ATNX, AY, BVX, BCLI, CATS, CDTI, HTHT,
DRIO, DRNA, DKS, EVOK, HQCL, HOLI, INVH, ITRI, KNOP, LIQT, MIME, NETS, NINE,
NSANY, NAO, NXTD, KIDS, FENG, POLA, RXN, SORL, SWCH, TKPYY, TDW, VBLT, VIPS
TUESDAY, 05/15: ALDX, AMID, EXP, EDAP, GAIN, ENT, HD, LRAD, MDLY, EYE, NTES,
NLST, ONTX, VRTU
WEDNESDAY, 05/16: ACXM, CSIQ, CSCO, DLNG, FLO, JACK, M,
NWY, OBSV, PERY, PGR, PXS, SB, TTWO, TCEHY
THURSDAY, 05/17: VNET, AMAT, BZUN, PLCE, DXLG, JCP,
KEM, MMYT, JWN, TK, TGP, TOO, TNK, VIVHY, WMT
FRIDAY, 05/18: AINV, CLMT, CPB, DE
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 05/13
Biannual Congress on Photobiology (Tampa FL thru 15th)
ELCC European Lung Cancer Conference (Geneva Suisse thru 14th)
TV UpFronts (NY thru 15th)
71ST Cannes Film Festival (Cannes France thru 19th)
STARTING SUNDAY, 05/13
Mother’s Day
32nd Annual Governor’s Hurricane Conference (W. Palm Beach FL thru
18th)
OpCo 18th Annual Israeli Conference (Tel Aviv)
MONDAY, 05/14
JPMorgan 11th Annual Homebuilding & Building Products Conference (NY
thru 15th)
Housing Leadership Summit (Dana Point CA thru 16th)
BAML 35th Annual Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference (Miami
Beach FL thru 16th)
Instinet Gaming, Leisure & Lodging Conference (NY thru 15th)
MoffittNathanson 5th Annual Media & Communications Summit (NY thru
15th)
Barclays Electronic Chemicals Conference (NY)
Piper Jaffray Financial Services Conference (Palm Beach FL thru 16th)
RBC Canadian Automotive, Industrials & Transportation Conf (Toronto Canada thru
16th)
JPMorgan LatAm Financials 1x1 Mid-West/West Coast Conf (Chicago & San Francisco
thru 15th)
Internet of Things World (Santa Clara CA thru 17th)
5G North America (Austin TX thru 16th)
WWD CEO Summit (Palm Beach FL thru 16th)
Light Reading’s Big Communications @5G North Am. (Austin TX thru 16th)
V.A. Healthcare Summit (Nat’l Harbor MD thru 17th)
NAWTEC Waste-to-Energy Conference (Lancaster PA thru 16th)
Airline Economics Growth Frontiers Conference (Dublin Ireland thru 16th)
JPMorgan Amsterdam Investor Forum (Netherlands)
tmforum Digital Transformation World Summit (Nice France thru 16th)
Deutsche Bank 9th Annual dbAccess Asia Conference (Singapore thru 18th)
HSBC 5th Annual China Conference (Shenzhen China thru 16th)
Cleantech Forum Europe (Antwerp Belgium thru 16th)
Christie’s Auctions the Joan & Preston (Bob) Tisch Collection (NY thru 18th)
21st Century Fox (FOXA) UpFront (4pm Beacon Theater NY)
Gabelli & Co (GBL) Analyst/Investor Day (Greenwich CT)
Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX) Investors Day (NY)
NBCUniversal (CMCSA) UpFront (11am @Radio City Music Hall, NY thru 15th)
NICE Systems (NICE) Interactions (Jay Leno the entertainment: Orlando thru 16th)
Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) marketing with B Riley (Boston)
Univision UpFront (NY)
Veeva (VEEV) Commercial Summit (Philadelphia PA thru 16th)
Verint (VRNT) Investor Day @Engage18 (Dallas TX)
Verint (VRNT) engage18 Global Customer Conference (Dallas)
TUESDAY, 05/15
46th Annual JPMorgan Global Tech, Media & Communications Conference (Boston
thru 17th)
Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference (NY thru 16th)
Morgan Stanley E&P & Oil Services Conference (Houston)
Tudor, Pickering & Holt 14th Annual Hotter ‘N Hell Energy Conf
(Houston thru 16th)
Stephens 2nd Annual Energy Executive Summit (Little Rock AR thru 16th)
Deutsche Bank 12th Annual Clean Tech, Utilities & Power Conference
(NY)
Citi Global Energy & Utilities Conference (Boston thru 16th)
Wells Fargo 9th Annual Gaming, Hospitality & Leisure Conf. (Las
Vegas thru 16th)
Needham & Co. Emerging Technology Conference (NY thru 16th)
BAML 2018 Transportation Conference (Scottsdale AZ thru 16th)
BAML Health Care Conference (Las Vegas thru 17th)
Jefferies Residential Real Estate Housing Summit (NY)
OpCo 3rd Annual Emerging Growth Conference (NY)
Euromoney 38th No. American AirFinance Conference (Miami Beach FL thru
16th)
EDS Electronic Distribution Services Connect (Las Vegas thru 18th)
Gartner Digital Marketing Conference (San Diego CA thru 17th)
Gartner IT Operations Strategies & Solutions Summit (Orlando thru 17th)
Loyalty Expo (Orlando thru 17th)
SEPA (Smart Electric Power) Solar Power Southeast (Atlanta GA thru 16th)
Self-Insured Workers’ Compensation Executive Forum, (Charleston SC thru 17th)
Barclays Americas Select Franchise Conference (London thru 17th)
FT Future of the Car Summit (London thru 16th)
JPMorgan Global Consumer & Retail Conference (London thru 16th)
Morgan Stanley EEMEA Conference (London)
KBW European Financials Conference (London thru 16th)
UBS Pan European Small & Mid-Cap Conference (London thru 17th)
ENTELEC Conference/Expo (Houston TX thru 17th)
CIMT FOCiS Cancer Immunotherapy (Mainz Germany thru17th)
Berenberg Investor Forum @The Battery Show (Hannover Germany thru 16th)
Electric & Hybrid Vehicle & Battery Revolution (Hannover DE thru 17th)
EuroFinance Strategic Int’l Treasurer Conference (Miami thru 17th)
AHS 74th Vertical Flight Society Forum (Phoenix AZ thru 17th)
23rd CLSA China Forum (Hangzhou China thru 16th)
9th Annual BioSimilars Asia (Shanghai thru 17th)
ESPN (DIS) UpFront (NY)
Variety’s 22nd Webby Awards (streamed on (GOOGL’s)
YouTube)
Navistar Int’l Corp (NAV) marketing with Strategas Research (Columbus)
Redhill Biopharma) (RDHL) webcast on RHB-104 for Crohn’s Disease
Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) Co-Founder & Head of R&D Honored at 21st
Am. Society of gene & Cell Therapy (DC)
WEDNESDAY, 05/16
BMO Capital Markets 13th Annual Farm to Market Conference (NY thru
17th)
21st American Society of Gene & Cell Therapy (Washington DC thru 19th)
IID Society for Investigative Dermatology 74th Meeting (Orlando thru 19th)
27th Annual Am. Ass’n of Clinical Endocrinologists (Boston thru 20th)
Instinet Global Quant Research Conference (NY)
TD Securities 2018 Media & Telecom Forum (Toronto)
Euromoney European Renewable Energy Finance Forum (London thru 17th)
Canadian PM Justin Trudeau receiving honorary Doctor of Laws from NYU @Yankee Stadium
Didi Chuxing Pres Jean Liu receiving Honorary Doctor of Laws from NYU @Yankee Stadium
FLIR Systems (FLIR) Investor Day (8:30am et)
IPG Photonics (IPGP) marketing with Strategas Research (Cincinnati + Columbus)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Consumer & Med Devices Business Review (8am et New
Brunswick NJ)
KAR Auction Services (KAR) marketing with Strategas Research (Baltimore)
NextEra Energy (NEE) marketing with Wolfe Research (streamed online)
Office Depot (ODP) Investor Day (8:30a.m. et)
United Therapeutics (UTHR) Chair/CEO receiving an honorary Dr. of Law degree from
NYU @Yankee Stadium
THURSDAY, 05/17
Capital Link 17th Closed-End Funds & Global ETFs Forum (NY)
Precision Medicine Summit (D.C. thru 18th)
Bloomberg Future of Cybersecurity Summit (DC)
Houlihan Lokey 13th Global Industrials Conference (NY)
Nephrology Update (Cleveland Clinic OH thru 19th)
Credit Suisse European Equity Trading Forum (Herffordshire UK thru 18th)
Citi European Internet & eCommerce Day (London)
Citi Swiss Healthcare Days (Zurich Switzerland)
JPMorgan Australia Clean Energy Metals Forum (Sydney Australia)
FDA Vaccines & Related Biological Products AdCom
BRT Apartments Corp (BRT) marketing w/B Riley (NY)
Health Insurance Innovations Inc (HIIQ) marketing w/B Riley (NY)
LCI Industries Inc (LCII) marketing with CLKing (Mid-Atlantic thru 18th)
FRIDAY, 05/18
ATS 18: Am. (Thoracic) Society for Pulmonary, Critical Care & Sleep Int’l
Conference (San Diego thru 23rd)
115th AUA: Am, Urological Ass’n Annual Meeting (San Francisco thru
21st)
Deutsche Bank dbAccess Italy in Focus (London)
Citi Hong Kong & China Commodities Speakers Day (Hong Kong)
Microsoft (MSFT) Redmond Interoperability PlugFest (Redmond WA thru 22nd)
Mitsubishi UFJ aka MUFG Investor Meeting (Tokyo Japan)
Sotheby’s (BID) faces tough comparisons to year ago auction of Original
Picasso Art works left in the Villa he bequeathed to his granddaughter
MOVIES OPENING: "Deadpool 2," with Josh Brolin, Morena Baccarin, Zazie
Beetz, Ryan Reynolds, Bill Skarsgarde, must compete not only with the first, wildly
successful, 2016 "Deadpool" film but again "Avengers: Infinity War,"
which only opened 2 weeks ago, and the still playing "Black Panther,"all from
Marvel Comics’ pages. And don’t wait a week because by then, you know
you’ll want to see "Solo: A Star Wars Story." DP2 is being distributed
by 20th Century Fox (FOXA), which puzzles, since SNE had rights to Marvel
Comics films, until Walt Disney bought the publisher, so where Fox muscled in is a
mystery. Deadpool, for those who don’t know, derived from the "X-Men"
Series. The annual Senior Summer Comedy is opening early, this year. That would be "Book
Club" with Diane Keaton Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, & Mary Steenburgen as the
book club reading "50 Shades of Gray," because it was Fonda’s choice and
she wants to liven up her friends. So who are the guys clamoring for their affection?
Craig T. Nelson, Don Johnson, Richard Dreyfuss, Wallace Shawn, and possibly, Ed Begley Jr.
The latter’s role not yet known, for sure—he’s either one of the senior men
looking for love (or sex), the son of one of the Book Club members, or married to one of
their daughters, from Paramount Pictures (VIA). "Show Dogs" with
Will Arnett, Alan Cumming, Stanley Tucci, Natasha Lyonne, RuPaul, Shaquille O’Neal,
Gabriel Iglesias, Ludacris, from Open Road Films, distributed by Global Road Entertainment
(formed in 2017, from what used to be Tang Media Partners, which was backed by Donald
Tang, Tencent, China Everbright Ltd, China Media Capital & Neil Shen of Sequoia
Capital. Think there’s Chinese distribution approval ahead?). Documentary, "Pope
Francis: A Man of His Word," also opens. Besides the pope, others featured
include Turkey’s Erdogan, former VP John Kerry, Angela Merkel, but more about Pope
Francis the Reformer, rather than a biographical documentary, or at least, that’s
what the producers claim. Focus Features (CMCSA)
SATURDAY 05/19
Nat’l Restaurant Ass’n (Chicago thru 22nd)
INS Infusion Therapy (Cleveland OH thru 22nd)
Prince Harry of UK marries his divorced, bi-racial finance (Rachel) Meghan Markle
(Broadcast starts 7am et)
143rd Preakness Stakes (2nd leg of Triple Crown Pimlico Race
Track, MD) EARLIER 2018 OUTLOOKS Here
© Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a
recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s,
alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,
Regards
Sandi Lynne
(c) 1998--2018
Sandi Lynne