What You missed LAST Week
What You missed LAST Week
SHORT WEEK COULD
FIND BUYERS AFTER UGLY WEEK
June 29—July 03, 2020 The short of it is, the week around July 4th is
often ugly, redeemed by some late long positioning before the holiday. Independence Day is
a holiday celebrated on the 4th, no matter where it falls in the week, though a
close the Friday before, or the Monday afterwards, when it falls on one of the weekend
days, is common.
Central Bankers are chatty this week, on both sides of the Atlantic, the switch to
teleconferences fully formed. There are still many events Postponed (read canceled in most
cases) and canceled but almost all of the I-bank events are going ahead, until they nearly
stop until mid-August. The beauty of video conferences is someone like the NY Fed
CEO/Pres. John Williams can speak at conferences on both sides of the Atlantic, as he will
this week. To top it off, FOMC Chief Powell testifies this week at the US House Financial
Services Committee, along with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. I think Powell as spent more
time speaking to Congress in recent weeks than my representative or Senator has. Also
worth noting, the sole dissenter to last week’s Bank test results, Lael Brainard, who
felt the banks’ dividends should have been halted, altogether, speaks Tuesday on
"A Decade of Dodd-Frank." That should be interesting because hours before
release of the Stress Tests, the Fed, FDIC & OCC loosened the rules around the Volcker
Rule, a part of the Dodd-Frank legislation, freeing up so $44B in bank funds tied up as
collateral. One of the strangest concoctions. I ran across, this week, was BoE’s
Breeden having a conversation with Prue Leith, on 07/01. Breeden supervises
deposit-takers; Leith is a judge on the "Great British Bake Off," a TV program
not just carried in the US but copied by the Food Network.
The bigger event of the week is the Institute for International Finance, IIF Central
Banking in the Age of CVID-19. NY Fed’s Williams is offering a webinar on "US
Recession & Public Policy Response," which strikes me as humorous because the
CARES Act is the topic of Powell & Mnuchin’s testimony. For those who are already
studying the potential HEROES Act and forgot, already, what CARES stands for, it’s
Coronavirus Aid, Relief, & Economic Security Act. Funny how quickly a couple of
Trillion disappears. If only the virus disappeared as quickly!
The National Association of Realtors will be offering May Pending Home Sales on Monday,
S&P/Case-Shiller the April 20-city Home Price Index Tuesday. Wednesday, the MBA will
offer Mortgage Purchase & Refinance Data, just as Mortgage Rates hit an all time low.
Also Monday, to usher in the new month, the divisive SEC Regulation BI—Best Interest,
another in a long line of regulations that all add up to "know your customer."
Problem is, can organizations like Robinhood possibly know their customers, when every
desk jockey under 35, stuck working at home, has opened an account to trade there, without
fees, because there’s been no sports to bet on.
Thursday should be circled on your calendar because the Bureau of Labor Statistics is
going to release both the weekly Jobless Apps and the June monthly Unemployment Report.
Bond Markets close at 2pm Thursday, because Friday off isn’t enough. Equity markets
trade usual hours Thursday, though there may not be much volume even before the bond
market closes.
The Earnings Calendar is slight, with Micron Technology Monday, Congra & FedEx on
Tuesday, Capri Holdings (formerly Michael Kors), Constellation Brands, General Mills, and
Macy*s Wednesday, before Korn Ferry on Thursday. Macy*s has already released most of its
quarterly data on 2 earlier occasions, so can’t surprise without contradicting
something it’s filed earlier. Conagra & General Mills serve food that people
consumer at home—nice spot to be in, lately. Constellation Brands could be selling
lots of beer and wine to people working from home but can probably not offset the bars
& restaurants that were closed during the quarter, no matter how much alcohol
shelter-in-place buyers bought. Capri Holdings could be quite ugly and no one should be
surprised.
As for the Events on the schedule, the I-banks holding events this week largely scheduled
them overseas, originally. Many of the corporate & I-bank events originally scheduled
to run into the July 4th holiday, were scheduled that way to allow members and
spouses to plan a long weekend away, at the host city. With events converting to virtual
events, the entire purpose for the scheduling mid- to late this week is obviated. The
event I’ll miss most is Wimbledon, which I’m sure NBC (CMCSA) will miss even
more. However, if you’re going to circle a 2nd event on your calendar, it
probably should be Monday’s first trades in the reconstituted Russell Indexes. I
doubt that’ll be much of a big deal, given FTSE Russell had been announcing probable
changes for over a month, and gave the changes away long before last week’s changes
after Friday’s bell. Still, if you see volume pick up in Russell 1000 & 2000
indexes, that shouldn’t surprise.
In general, though, given Thursday’s short day for Bonds, and the Friday celebration
of the Nation’s birth, there shouldn’t be a surfeit of volume most of the week,
barring a flurry Thursday morning, when the BLS releases it’s two powerhouse jobs
reports. Once again, I doubt the bulls will be patient and wait for stocks to pull back
sufficiently, even with the virus numbers spiking around the country. On the other hand, I
expect some to be drawn to the financials that were killed Friday, after the Fed et al
froze dividends for the 3rd quarter at least. My only question is, with Wells
Fargo just about done paying lawyers, fines and restitution, will the regulators
acknowledge its last 4 quarters of earnings only missed because of those non-operating
costs, and let its dividend slide? Or will the regulators deal Wells Fargo the latest
blow, and force it to lower its dividend. And then, were that to happen, would the Street
celebrate—a lower dividend subject to so much speculation for so long, sometimes it
frees the subject of the yoke that had been weighing on the stock. If it lowers it’s
dividend and gets it over with, does Wells become more attractive to buyers interested
into financials on the cheap?
Have a nice holiday, one and all!
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below.
Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 06/28
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
BoE May Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals
Eurozone Economic/Services/Industrial
Sentiment, Consumer Confidence
14th ECB Central Banking Virtual Seminar: Monetary Policy &
non-standard measures in the Euro area" (thru 07/03)
BoE’s Bailey & Breeden webinar
"Climate Financial risk Forum (10:30 bst)
BoE’s Vleighe "Observed macroeconomic
tail risk & asset prices: new long term evidence"
MONDAY, 06/29
NAR May Pending Home Sales
Canada May Building Permits
1st Trades of Reconstituted Russell Indexes
Dallas Fed June Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $54B 3-, & $51B 5-month Bills (11:30am et)
Boston Fed webinar for Lenders: Main Street Lending Program—Loan Purchase Process
(2pm et)
Fed’s Williams conversation w/IMF Mng Dir Georgieva to Economic Club of NY
(3pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Japan May Unemployment Rate/Job Apps, Industrial
Production
China NBS (Nat’l Statistics Bureau) June Mnftg
& non-Mnftg PMIs
UK Q1 GDP/Change, Biz Investment, Current
Account, June Nationwide House Prices
BoE’s Cunliffe in-conversation @IIF
Summit "Central Banking in the Age of COVID-19" (15:00 bst)
ECB’s Schnabel webinar @IIF Central
Banking in Age of COVID-19" (15:00 cet)
NY Fed’s Williams, UBS Chair Axel Weber,
more speakers @IIF ‘Central Banking in the Age of COVID-19’ streamed
TUESDAY, 06/30
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
S&P/Case-Shiller April 20-city Home Price Index
Chicago Fed June PMI
ECB’s de Guindos virtual "Perspectives on the Pandemic" @NABE (17:00
cet)
Conference Board’s June Consumer Confidence
Conversation with the Fed: What impact has COVID-19 had on the MN economy? (12pm ct)
Fed’s Williams webinar: "US Recession & Public Policy Response"
@IIF Central Banking in the Age of COVID-19 (11am edt)
Fed Gov Brainard "A Decade of Dodd-Frank" to Brookings Inst. @UoM (11:05
am et)
US Treasury Auctions $35B reopened 119-day & $15B reopened 42-day Bills
(11:30am et)
FOMC Chief Powell & Treas. Sec’y Mnuchin Testify on CARES Act @US House FinServices Cmte (12:30pm et)
"Coronavirus Aid, Relief & Economic Security Act "
"How to be Inclusive during Crisis, Including Managing Remotely" (K.C.
Fed 1pm et)
Former Fed D. Kohn webinar "A Decade of Dodd-Frank" panel on "What
it’s meant globally" to Brookings @U of Michigan Ctr on Finance, Law &
Policy
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Japan Q2 Tankan Index/Outlook, Jibon Bank June
Mnftg PMI, May Housing Starts
Russia votes on Constitutional Amendment that
would Allow Putin to Reign until 2026
China Caixin June Manufacturing PMI
ECB’s Panetta speaks @Capital Markets
webinar Euorpean Investment Banks-European Stability Mechanism (9:45 cet)
Eurozone, French, German, Italian, Markit June
Manufacturing PMI
UK Markit/CIPS Jun Manufacturing PMI, Nationwide
House Price Index
WEDNESDAY, JULY 01
MBA weekly Mortgage Purchase/Refinance Applications
Challenger June Job-Cuts
BoE’s Breeden on "Building Resiliency: Climate Action in the Financial
Sector"
ADP June US non-Farm Employment
US June ISM Manufacturing/Orders/Shipments/Prices Paid/Employment (10am et)
SEC New Reg BI—Best Interest—Effective
Resolution Plans (Living Wills) NOT due today from Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche
Bank & UBS—Postponed until late September
Fed’s Evans moderates Chicago Fed virtual "Visions for Chicago’s
Future: A Community Forum" (9am edt)
US May Construction Spending
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am et)
FOMC releases Minutes of June 09—10 Meeting (2pm et)
Separate Holidays in Hong Kong, Russia & Canada
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Ward’s US June Vehicle Sales
Eurozone May Unemployment Rate/Change, PPI
BoE’s Decision Maker Panel Data (like
Beige Book; 9:30 bst)
ECB’s Mersch @Salzburg Global
webinar on "What future for the European Union in the aftermath of the German ECB
Ruling?" (15:00 cet)
THURSDAY, JULY 02
US June Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Continuing Claims/Avg Earnings
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US May Factory Orders
NY June ISM Index/Business Conditions
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; values not announced at
post)
BoE Financial Stability Report/FPC Record
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No. Am. Total/Oil Rig Count (1pm et)
US Bond Markets Close 2pm et in Advance of Holiday
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
China Caixin June Services/Composite PMI
Eurozone, France, German, Italy, Spain Markit
Jun Services/Composite PMI
UK CIPS/Markit Jun Services/Composite PMI
FRIDAY, JULY 03
US Markets CLOSED to Celebrate tomorrow’s Holiday
V.P. Joe Biden virtual address to the NEA (Education) Convention (3:15pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
ECB Gov Lagarde webinar @Recontres
Economiques of Aix-en-Seine on "Metre en seccure un modele alternatif de
croissance" (12:40 cet)
SATURDAY, JULY 4TH
US Independence Day Holiday
WEEKS AHEAD: 07/06 Publication of US Reference Rates (TIGR),
(BGCR), (SOFR)
07/07 RBA (Aussie) MPC Meets
07/15 BoE MPC Meets
BoC (Canada) MPC Meets
07/16 ECB MPC Meets
07/28—29 FOMC Meets
08/27—28 K.C. Fed virtual 44th Annual Economic Policy Symposium:
"Navigating the Decade Ahead—Implications for Monetary Policy
EARNINGS: (We ignore "the"
in a company name unless it’s integral to the ticker. Most times it isn’t. We
highlight tickers we believe will attract the most attention—a subjective designation
with which you’re free to disagree. We attempt to verify every listed report but for
those IR sites that require permission for all cookies, we refuse, so are sometimes
thwarted. Those without an English site we could find, keep us out that way. In those
cases, we rely on 3rd-parties presumed accurate, based on past experience but
often remain unconfirmed, followed by ???)
MONDAY, 06/29: MU, PNRG, RAVE, RMBL
TUESDAY, 06/30: AYI, CAG, FDX, MEI, PEB, RTIX
WEDNESDAY, 07/01: CPRI, STZ, GIS, M, SCHN, SCS, UNF
THURSDAY, 0702: CULP, KFY, LNN, TC
FRIDAY, 07/03: NONE US Markets CLOSED to Celebrate tomorrow’s Holiday
EVENTS:
SUNDAY, 06/28
Nat’l Ass’n of Health Underwriters Virtual Conference (thru 30th)
AOA Am. Orthopaedic Ass’n Annual Mtg On Demand (thru 07/21)
Identiverse—Cloud Identity Virtual Summit (thru 08/05—9 wks)
UBA (Utah Bankers Ass’n) 112th Virtual Convention (thru 07/01)
Western Agricultural Economics Ass’n Annual Virtual Conference (thru 07/01)
SEMICON China/FPD/OLED China, Assembly/Test-Packaging (Shanghai thru 29th)
Global Biodefense World Summit CANCELED
Biannual Congress on Photobiology Postponed (until 2021)
CANCELED Optometry Ass’n Annual
NASFT-Fancy Foods CANCELED
Wimbledon Tennis Championship CANCELED for 2020
Macy*s (M) fireworks pop-up displays, unannounced all week, finale 07/04
BET Awards BET TV (8pm et)
MONDAY, 06/29
1st Trades of Russell Reconstituted Indexes
Fixed Income Leaders USA Virtual Event (thru 30th)
Credit Suisse Next Horizon Series: ESG Virtual Forum
Daiwa Auto & Industrials Leaders Virtual Conference (thru 07/03)
FinTechWorld Virtual Forum (thru 30th)
Macquarie Asia Tech Virtual Conference (thru 30th)
Nomura Virtual HK & China Healthcare Corporate Day (thru 30th)
Credit Suisse Korea Virtual Corporate Day—Beyond COVID-19 (thru 30th)
Linux Foundation Open Source Virtual Summit (thru 07/02)
National Homeland Security Conference CANCELED
IPAA OGIS Canceled 91st Annual Meeting
Amazon (AMZN) CANCELED AWS: Re:INFORCE
Archrock Inc (AROC) Mngmnt call w/BRileyFBR
Eros Int’l (EROS) Extraordinary Meeting of Shareholders for Merger w/STX
Filmworks Inc
NikolaWorld (NKLA) Unveil of Badger Electric Pick-up (Scottsdale AZ)
TUESDAY, 06/30
134th Air & Waste Management Ass’n Virtual Annual
Conference/Expo (thru 07/02)
ESH European Virtual Congress on Lymphoblastic Leukemia Network Meeting (thru
07/02)
ISPO Sports Business Virtual RE: Start Days (thru 1st)
Society of Quantative Analysts postponed SQA Fuzzy Day
Montage Technology Virtual Citi-hosted call
Air Transport Services Group (ATSG) virtual marketing w/Stephens
Amazon (AMZN) AWS Public Sector Virtual Summit
Green Plains Inc (GPRE) virtual marketing w/Stephens
Lowe’s (LOW) VP of Asset Protection virtual interview w/NRF Originally a
preview to NRF Protect, Protect was moved to September, this interview stayed where it was
Mylan (MYL) shareholders vote on merger with Pfizer’s Generic div, Upjohn
Shanghai Wanye Enterprises virtual call hosted by Citi
Sonic Automotive (SAH) virtual marketing w/Stephens
TrueCar Inc (TRUE) virtual NDR w/BRileyFBR
WEDNESDAY, JULY 01
World GI Gastrointestinal Cancer Virtual Conference (thru 07/04)
IMN Distressed Hotels Virtual Conference
IFAC Advances in Automatic Control Virtual Conference (thru 07/03)
Stephens Pawn Shop 2020 Trends Update w/CFO of Smart Financial (11am et)
Ford (F) virtual Fireside Chat on 2020 Sustainability Report w/Wolfe Research
IBM (IBM) Think Gov Digital Conference
THURSDAY, JULY 02
NEA (Education) Virtual Conference/Expo (thru 07/06)
OSA Superconducting Quantum Circuits—Vision Technical Group Prt 3:Chromatic
Aberrations in Vision
Citi Virtual Semiconductor Trip
Citi India Private Internet Virtual Forum (thru 3rd)
US Bond Markets Close 2pm et in Advance of Holiday
Stephens CPaaS Expert Call (10am et)
Huawei User Group Meeting (Suzhou China thru 07/03)
FRIDAY, JULY 03
All US Markets CLOSED to Celebrate tomorrow’s Holiday
Les Recontres Economiques Aix en Seine Virtual event (thru 5th)
EFAS-CANCELED European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies 13th Summer
School
SATURDAY, JULY 4TH
US Independence Day Holiday
EPA 28th European Virtual Congress of Psychiatry
Macy’s (M) finale fireworks at undisclosed location
EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2020 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2020 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a
recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s,
alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
Enjoy last week's highlights. I'm retired, now, and prepare what I like, when I want,
Regards
Sandi Lynne
(c) 1998--2020
Sandi Lynne