What You missed LAST Week
FED FAR FROM READY TO CUT
June 17—21, 2019 Despite a coming FOMC Meeting, it’s really the ECB that’s busier than the FOMC, hosting an annual Forum on Central Banking—20 years of European Economic & Monetary Union, in Sintra, Portugal. Attending are the Central Bank heads from Ireland, the BoE, and even Janet Yellen & Larry Summers—the latter on the rate cut bandwagon, suddenly. The Bk of England is meeting on rates but we know there's going to be nothing done there, because of still unsettled Brexit, not ot mention the lack of a Prime Minister.
I am never right about the FOMC but here goes—Wednesday, I expect the FOMC to say what everyone expects—that it is watching and evaluating the incoming data closely, and if its necessary, it will cut rates if the need should arise. But I don’t expect a promise of a rate cut, because the data isn’t, yet, negative enough to require the cut. The last Unemployment Report, with job adds falling over 100K shy of expectations, wasn’t the first time to disappoint. In fact, the more than 75K jobs added were a heck of a lot better than the 33K added one month in recent history. Aside from employment—which many would argue already reached the commonly believed "full employment" level, anyway, the data hasn’t just been weak enough to justify a rate cut—Pres. Trump’s insistence, aside. In fact, the Service side of the economy—the largest portion of economic output, has strengthened, rather than weakened, in recent months.
And given that mortgage rates have been easing down, it’s quite possible even the housing data out this week will be improved, as well. Monday, the NAHB sentiment data is out—the June Housing Market Index. Tuesday, May Housing Starts/Building Permits, and Friday, May Existing Home Sales. And, if you really want to know the most important data out this week, it might well be the Stress Test Results of the eleven largest banks, Friday, after the close—just before the FTSE Russell Company releases the Final Adds & Deletes for Russell Indices that will be reconstituted after the close on the 28th—the same day the Fed Reserve will release the CCAR results, which determine the amount of dividends & buybacks the megabanks can conduct over the next year. Of course, it pays to remember that under Powell, the FOMC has become a kinder, gentler regulatory, who not only has let a number of banks off the Stress Test/CCAR test hook but also seeks less to trip up the banks than assure they’re prepared to weather the next economic storm.
Other than all the above, and despite Fed Gov Brainard and Fed Pres. Mester talking 2x, it should be a very quiet week. The Earnings Calendar is nearly dried up. A couple of big tech companies are scheduled to report, including Adobe, Jabil Circuit, and Oracle, along with Korn Ferry, which would be one of the first companies to see a drop off in hiring, if there’s one on the horizon. To round out the reports, Darden Restaurants, and Kroger, with CarMax wrapping up the week on Friday. Its worth mentioning that former parent, AutoNation declared its intent to expand into used cars, encroaching on KMX’s business but, so far, KMX seems to have nothing to worry about, other than the collapse in sales of sedans, which has long been the bread and butter for KMX.
As for events, the week’s biggest curiosity is supposed to be Facebook introducing its cryptocurrency this week. Backers, who each invested a meager $10m to support the effort (cause FB needs the money, right?), include Visa, Uber, MasterCard, PayPal & Stripe, according to the WSJ. Some will act as "nodes," it’s reported, that verify and document transactions using the currency, marketed as a "stablecoin," whose value is tied to a basket of government currencies, to escape the wild swings Bitcoin’s pricing sees. Some supporters, it’s said, worry Libra could be used to launder money or finance terrorism, a problem seen in other cryptocurrencies. FB is expected to publish a white paper on Libra, this week, to detail the concept more completely.
The Event Calendar otherwise slows, as summer, which officially arrives on the 21st, sends traders & portfolio managers on vacation. Sunday AAAE Aviation Conference kicks off in Boston, while Monday, Marine Money Week gets underway in NY, Jefferies a co-host with Capital Link. Speaking of AN & KMX, Independent & Minority Auto Dealers meet, NIADA, in Vegas, for one of the bigger conventions of the week, who must be thrilled that rates are backing off again. Not that they will, necessarily, offer lower rates to their customers but because it makes it easier for them to round up the financing they need to be able to offer to customers, and to stock their showrooms. Speaking of airports, the Paris Air Show kicks off Monday, too. So does ICSC—Shopping Centers Strategic Leadership Summit, in D.C.
JPMorgan is hosting its Annual Energy Conference, starting Tuesday. Jefferies hosts Consumer IR the same day, while Oppenheimer host Consumer Growth & E-Commerce, in Nantucket MA & Boston, respectively. That’s a lot of Consumer companies reporting, many retailers who are struggling to figure out the new retail, for many, closing stores. Credit Suisse’s 4th Annual US West Coast Yankee Bank Conference + IR Day, is the most misleading conference name in history because the banks appearing are about as far from Yankee as could be—they’re European banks. JEFF & OpCo aren’t the only nearly duplicate conferences. Raymond James, starting Tuesday, is hosting Life Sciences & MedTech, while Wednesday, JMP Securities is hosting Life Sciences. Meanwhile, Stephens’ Cloud Communications Bus Tour may be one of the more tradable events, because it’s so finite: FIVN, TWLO, VG & ZM on the agenda. Speaking of misleading Conference names, there’s Pioer Jaffray’s Heartland Summit. At one time, it featured companies based in the heartland, Minneapolis, to be exact but, this year, the only companies we could confirm were biotechs, none of them based in Minneapolis or anywhere else in the Heartland. Speaking of biotechs, Merck & Co is hosting an Investor Day Thursday, but it’s Tyson’s Investor Day, Thursday, worth keeping an eye on—especially if you own the recent IPO, BYND (Beyond Meat) because TSN is sure to detail its roll-out of meat substitute chicken nuggets and other products. I’m personally curious about who Beyond Meat and other non-meat similars are aimed out. I haven’t eaten beef or lamb in over 50 years and have no interest in tasting a fake burger, which I haven’t missed, at all. So just curious.
So let’s generously call last week a consolidation week—an outcome that would be a gift this week since that rarely happens when the FOMC doesn’t deliver exactly what the market wants—a promise of a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting. And while I’m NEVER right about the FOMC, I just don’t see anything in the data that would justify a cut, or a concrete promise of one in July. And the one thing we know about the FOMC it’s that it reacts with a lag, even as its rate moves cause the economy to react with a lag. That means the economy is likely to be far softer before the FOMC institutes a rate cut.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 06/16
Father’s Day
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
ECB Chief Draghi opens ECB Forum on Central Banking 2019—20 years of European Economic & Monetary Union, with other speakers that include: Olivier Blanchard, ECB VP de Guindos, Bk of Ireland’s Lane, BoE Gov Carney, Janet Yellen, Larry Summers & Draghi 3x more (Sintra Portufal thru 19th)
UK Inflation Report Hearings
MONDAY, 06/17
Empire State Jun Manufacturing Survey (8:30am et)
NAHB June Housing Market Index
Canada May Existing Home Sales
AILA Global Immigration Forum –Pre-Annual Meeting Conference (Orlando FL thru 18th)
US Treasury Auctions $36B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
US April TICS
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
RBA’s (Aussie) Kearns speaks (Canberra), Q1 HPI, RBA Minutes of Jun MPC Meeting
China May New Home Prices
Japan Reuters Jun Tankan Index
EU 25 May New Car Registrations, CPI, April Trade Balance
German Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment/Expectations Survey
Eurozone Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment/Expectations Survey
TUESDAY, 06/18
FOMC 2-day Meeting Starts
1st Anniversary of S.F. Fed Pres. Williams arrival to takeover the NY Fed Reserve Bk
Virginia Legislative Primaries for ALL 140 Seats in the State
US May Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
Russia Q1 GDP, Industrial Production, PPI
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
UK CBI Jun Order & Selling Trends, May CPIH, CPI, RPPI, PPI, Apr HPI
ECB’s Draghi & Lautenschlager wrap ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra Portugal)
WEDNESDAY, 06/19
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
Canada May CPI, Teranet/Nat’l Bank HPI
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (w/e 06/14; 10:30am et)
AILA Immigration Law Annual Meeting (Orlando FL thru 20th)
FOMC post-Meeting Statement & Updated Member SEP (Forecasts; 2pm et)
FOMC Chief Powell post-Meeting Press Conference (2:30pm et)
Direct Brexit UK-EU Talks began 2 years ago today—so much for that!
Brazil MPC Interest Rate Decision
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
RBA Bulletin, RBA Gov Lowe Press Conferenece review of Bulletin
Japan April All Industry Activity Index, May Machine Tool Orders
BoJ post-MPC Meeting Statement, Gov Kuroda Press Conference (6/20 local time)
Norges (Norway) Bank MPC Rate Decision (6/20 local time)
Swiss May Trade Balance (incl. watch exports)
BoE post-2-day MPC Meeting Statement/Rates/QE Targets, Minutes
BoE Chief Carney Press Conference (6/20 local time)
THURSDAY, 06/20
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et)
Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
US Current Account
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
Fed Gov Brainard & Fed Pres Mester open @Cleveland Fed Policy Summit:Connecting People & Places to Opportunity (noon—1:30pm Cincinnati OH thru 21st)
BoE’s Carney & UK FinMin Hammond Mansion House Speeches @Lord Mayor of London dinner
US Treasury Auctions $15B reopened 5-year TIPS (1pm et)
US Fed Reserve Bank weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Japan May CPI, Nikkei Jun Manufacturing PMI
Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Jun Markit Manufacturing/Services+Composite PMI
Bundesbank/ECB member Weidmann and Fed’s Rosengren lead off the Bundesbank 5th Annual Macroprudential Conference, using Japan as case study (Eltville am Rhein DE thru 22nd)
FRIDAY, 06/21
US Markit Flash Jun Manufacturing, Services + Composite PMI
US May Existing Home Sales (10am et)
Fed Gov Brainard & Fed Pres Mester speak @Cleveland Fed Policy Summit:
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed’s Assets & Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the US (4:15pm et)
FTSE Russell Final Russell Indices Adds/Deletes Updates on Close
Fed Reserve Board releases Mega Bank Stress Test Results TODAY (4:30pm et)
WEEKS AHEAD: 06/24 BoJ releases Minutes of April 24—25 MPC Meeting
Federal Reserve (Education) Institute (U of San Diego thru 28th)
06/26 RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Rate Decision
06/27 Fed Reserve Bk releases MegaBAnk CCAR Results
06/28 FTSE Russell Rebalances Russell Indices on Close
06/28—29 G20 Leaders’ Summit (Osaka Japan)
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre-Market from After Market reports. We cover only the major money center banks and largest regionals, along with some US-traded foreign banks. Multiple "???" after a ticker means we saw it listed as a reporter in multiple places but couldn’t confirm the date—many times, of late, because we refuse to permit cookies at every site we visit—and it shouldn’t be required to visit IR sites, at all. If a company didn’t confirm by noon, Thursday, June 14th, it isn’t included. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless it’s integral to the ticker. In most cases, it isn’t. Emboldened stocks are not recommendations, or even stocks we’re personally interested in—they’re simply those results to which we think the market and/or media will pay most attention—deserved or not. Often, one sector is so dominant, it should be highlighted, to make that point in a quick glance.)
MONDAY, 06/17: CGC, SFUN
TUESDAY, 06/18: ADBE, JBL
WEDNESDAY, 06/19: AOBC, BKS, LZB, ORCL. WGO
THURSDAY, 06/20: CMC, DRI, KFY, KR, RHT, SCS
FRIDAY, 06/21: KMX
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 06/16:
NSA Sheriff’s Ass’n Annual (Louisville KY thru 18th)
Esthetics, Cosmetics & Spa Expo (Las Vegas NV thru 17th)
WEC: World Education Congress for Meeting Planners (Toronto ON Canada thru 18th)
EHA European Hematology Congress (Amsterdam NL thru 19th)
European Human Genetics Conference (Goethenburg Sweden thru 18th)
American Express (AXP) 28th Annual Restaurant Trade Program (Aspen CO)
Melco Casino & Resorts (MLCO) 1st Anniversary of Morpheus Hotel Public Opening (Macau)
STARTING SUNDAY, 06/16
91st Annual AAAE Aviation Conference/Expo (Boston MA thru 19th)
IEEE PVSC45 World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (Chicago IL thru 21st)
Neurodegenerative Diseases: Gligal Responses & Neuroinflammation + Therapeutic Opportunities (Keystone CO thru 20th)
MONDAY, 06/17
1st Opportunity for Trades on Russell Updated Indices’ Adds/Deletes
Jefferies Shipping Conference @Marine Money Week (NY thru 19th)
Jefferies Steel & Metals Summit (NY)
9th Nat’l Bundled (healthcare) Payment Summit (D.C. thru 19th)
73rd NIADA: Independent Auto Dealers & NABD Convention/Expo (Las Vegas thru 20th)
DeveloperWeek NY (Brooklyn NY thru 20th)
ICSC (Shopping Centers) Strategic Leadership Summit (D.C, thru 19th)
IMN RealTECH (NY thru 18th)
SUNY Technology Conference (Lake Placid NY thru 20th)
31st Annual Marine Money Week: Capital for Shipping (NY thru 19th)
Stephens Oilfield Services Lunch (w/PUMP & AFGlobal Corp (NY)
eMarketing Analytics Summit—Data @Work (Las Vegas thru 20th)
NFPA Americas Fire & Security Expo/Fire Rescue (San Antonio TX thru 20th)
Bloomberg Breakaway CEO Summit (NY thru 18th)
Cambridge Health 15th Biomarkers & Immuno-Oncology World Congress (Boston thru 20th)
GFX Government Fleet Expo (New Orleans LA thru 20th)
Gartner (IT) Security & Risk Management Summit (Nat’l Harbor MD thru 20th)
Stephens ABA Conference call on Bank Regulatory Outlook
Citi Mid-Year Road Ahead Conference (London)
Citi Columbia Day (London)
UBS LATEMEA 1-on-1 Conference (London thru 19th)
Paris Air Show (Le Bourget Parc FR thru 23rd)
Lond Capital European Mid Small Cap Forum (Frankfurt DE thru 18th)
IBC MedTech Summit (Brussels Belgium thru 21st)
SEMI China 15th Assembly & Test, China Fab Acceleration Program (Shanghai China thru 19th)
SMPTE CineEurope (Barcelona Spain thru 20th)
Cannes Lions Int’l Festival of Creativity (Nice FR thru 21st)
Incyte Inc (INCY) presenting Roxolitinib Cream: Phase 2 Data in Vitigligo (webcast 8am et)
Ingersol Rand (IR) ;Stephens Hdqtrs Visit (Davidson NC)
MongoDB (MDB) World (NY thru 19th)
Salesforce.com (CRM) Connections (Chicago thru 19th)
Vulcan Materials Co (VMI) marketing w/Stephens
2019 MTV (VIA) Movie & TV Awards (MTV TV 8pm et/7pm ct)
TUESDAY, 06/18
JPMorgan Energy Conference (NY thru 19th)
DUG Developing Unconventional Gas East Conference (Pittsburgh PA thru 20th)
Jefferies 2019 Global Consumer IR Conference (Nantucket MA thru 19th)
Oppenheimer 19th Consumer Growth & E-Commerce Conference (Boston MA thru 19th)
Raymond James Life Sciences & MedTech Conference (NY thru 19th)
BBVA & BME Spain Equity Conference (NY)
Fixed Income Leaders USA (Philadelphia PA thru 20th)
REFF WallStreet Renewable Energy Finance Forum (NY thru 19th)
Credit Suisse 4th Annual US West Coast Yankee Bank Conference+IR Day (San Francisco CA thru 19th)
Toy Ass’n Annual Business Conference (Minneapolis MN thru 19th)
PCI-SIG Developers Conference (Santa Clara CA thru 19th)
Marcum Long-Term Care Symposium (Uncasville CT)
FOCiS aka Immunology by the Bay (Boston thru 21st)
NextGen Protein Therapeutics & Bioconjugates (San Francisco thru 20th)
Vertical Research Ptnrs 8th Materials Conference (Westbrook CT)
JPMorgan European Insurance Conference (London)
Citi 8th European Healthcare Conference (London thru 19th)
5th Annual ROTH London Conference (London thru 20th)
Men’s Couture Fashion Week (Paris FR thru 23rd)
HSBC 3rd Annual Asia Credit Conference (Hong Kong thru 19th)
CARS: Computers in Radiology & Surgery Therapy (Rennes FR thru 21st)
InterSolar Summit Spain (Barcelona)
Int’l Conference on Advances in Malignant Lymphoma (Lugano Switzerland thru 22nd)
UBS Asia Telecom, Media & Internet (TMI) Conference (Hong Kong thru 19th)
Dycom Industries (DY) marketing w/ Stephens (NY & Boston thru 20th)
Enanta Pharma (ENTA) group dinner w/Wolfe Research
HPE (HPE) IR Summit @Discover (Las Vegas 8am local time)
Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE) Discover (Las Vegas thru 20th)
Intel (INTC) IoT DevFest IV (US, China, India, Germany, Brazil simultaneously thru 19th)
L B Foster (FSTR) marketing with Strategas (Baltimore & Philadelphia thru 20th )
LendingTree Co (TREE) marketing w/Stephens (Edinburgh & London thru 19th)
Microsoft (MSFT) Visual Studio Live (San Jose CA thru 19th)
Red Lion Hotels (RLH) marketing with Strategas (Portland)
Synovus Financial Co (SNV) marketing w/Stephens (TX & CO thru 19th)
WEDNESDAY, 06/19
JMP Securities Life Sciences Conference (NY thru 20th)
Stephens Cloud Communications Bus Tour (FIVN, TWLO, VG, ZM Bay Area CA)
Citi Leveraged Finance Conference (Park City UT thru 20th)
IMN 24th Global Indexing & ETFs (Dana Point CA thru 21st)
SNL Kagan’s (SPGI, now) 35th Radio & TV Finance Summit (NY)
Stephens Broadcast TV plane trip to: E.W. Scripss (SSP), Gray TV (GTN), Nexstar Broadcasting (NXST) & Sinclair Broadcasting (SGBI)
Managed Funds Forum (Chicago)
ABA Digital Banking Summit (Austin TX thru 21st)
Snack Food Legislative Summit (D.C thru 20th)
WEAR Summit (Seattle WA thru 21st)
RBC Capital Women in Treasury Conference (Denver CO thru 20th)
American Optometry Ass’n Annual (St Louis MO thru 23rd)
Clean (dry clean) Show (New Orleans thru 23rd)
Private Equity Int’l Investor Relations & Communications Forum (NY thru 20th)
FDA Circulatory System Devices Panel of MedCon on mortality around drug-coated stents vs uncoated ones (Gaithersburg ME thru 20th)
Credit Suisse 6th Annual Australian Energy Conference (Sydney thru 20th)
Macquarie Emerging Leaders Corporate Day (Melbourne Australia thru 20th)
FLEX Korea (Seoul So Korea thru 20th)
Carrol's Restaurant (TAST) marketing w/Stephens (NY thru 20th)
Cowen Inc (COWN) marketing with Wolfe Research (Boston)
Pfizer (PFE) marketing w/Strategas (Portland, Seattle & vancouver thru 21st)
SAP (SAP) S/4Hanna (Charlotte NC thru 20th)
Shopify (SHOP) Unite Keynotes (10am edt)
Shopify (SHOP) 2019 Investor Day (1pm edt Toronto ON Canada)
Stoneridge Inc (SRI) marketing w/Stephens (NY & Baltimore thru 20th)
US Concrete (USCR) marketing w/Stephens (Dallas, K.C. thru 20th)
WSFS Financial Corp (WSFS) marketing w/Stephens (Chicago & Minneapolis)
THURSDAY, 06/20
Piper Jaffray Heartland Summit (Minneapolis)
Wells Fargo 5G Forum Part III (NY)
ALA American Library Ass’n Conference/Expo (D.C. thru 25th)
Citi Private Company Growth Conference (Boston)
FDA Pediatric Oncology Sub-Cmte of Oncologic Drugs AdCom To gauge investigator interest in pursuing Oncoceutics Inc’s ONC201 &/or OncoImmune Inc CD24Fc, as potential pediatric treatments of these drugs being studied for adult indications
JPMorgan European Healthcare Conference (London)
Morgan Stanley London, Europe & EMEA Property Conference (London)
Credit Suisse HK/China Commodities, Industrial & Property Corporate Day (Hong Kong)
ICMAD Independent Cosmetic Manufacturers & Distributors @InnoCos Int;l Beauty Innovation Summit (Dubrovnik Croatia thru 21st)
BJ's Restaurant, Inc (BJRI) hosting Stephens Clients (NY)
Merck & Co, Inc (MRK) Investor Day (8:30am est NY)
Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) Investor Day (8:30am edt @NYSE)
The Walt Disney (DIS) Company's film, "Cinderella," will be inducted into the National Film Registry at the Library of Congress (D.C.)
FRIDAY, 06/21
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Update (NY)
CICC Investment Strategy Conference (Shanghai China)
Hollister (ANF) teams with Activision (ATVI) to bring "Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled" to shoppers on game launch day @Hollister stores in L.A., Chicago & NY (Roosevelt Field) to host hands-on gaming expeirences, gaming lounges, and PS4 systems hooked up to the jumbo video screens in front of each store. Wil loffer Crash Team Racing t-shirts, game downloads, & Ltd edition other giveaways, with $100 purchase including Pop! Funko characters. At5pm, the Los Cerritos store will host a Twitch (AMZN) Livestream with Fuslie (aka JDrun), and social influencers from Hollister swim Collective on-stie to meet and greet customers. 100 other Hollister stores will offer game downloads with $100 purchase.
EA (EA) "Sims 4 Island Living" video game released (PC version July 16th)
Michael’s Stores (MIK) introduces DIY Cricut machine nationwide/online, ends 10/01
Raymond James (RJF) Analyst & Investor Day (9am et @NYSE)
FILMS OPENING: "Toy Story 4," with returning Tom Hanks, Tim Alan, plus Keanu Reeves, Christina Hendricks, Jordan Peele, Annie Potts, Betty White, Mel Brooks, and many more voices in the film from (DIS) Pixar Animation Studios. "Child’s Play," with Aubrey Plaza, Mark Hamill, Brian Tyree Henry, Gabriel Bateman, a remake/reboot of the 1099 film of the same name, to be released by United Artists Releasing (a JV between Annapurna Pictures & Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios, the latter the original "Child’s Play" owner.). "Anna," with Sasha Luss, Helen Mirren, Luke Evans, Cillian Murphy, directed & written by Luc Besson, distribution by Summit Entertainment (LGF.A majority owned). "Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am," with Tony Morrison, Oprah Winfrey, Angela Davis, Russell Banks, Fran Lebowitz, Walter Mosley, in a documentary about the storyteller on her literary career, distributed by Magnolia division of 2829 Entertainment (Mark Cuban & Todd Wagner).
SATURDAY, 06/22
SNM Society for Nuclear Medicine & Molecular Imaging Annual (Anaheim CA thru 25th) EARLIER 2019 OUTLOOK EXCERPTS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2019 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.