What You missed LAST Week
SHORT WEEK, END of MONTH
May 25—29, 2020 FOMC members are prominent, this week, albeit virtually, even as ECB monetary policy members (MPC) are out in more force than they’ve been since March—virtually, as well. Of course, even with several GDP’s set to be released, the highlight stateside may well be the manned space launch of two American astronauts, for the first time in over 9 years, from Cape Kennedy, Wednesday, at 3:33pm et, if all goes well. What makes lift-off especially notable is that it'’ Elon Musk's SpaceX doing the blast on its Falcon 9 rocket that’s already made a few flights into space, including to the space station and back, with remarkably on-target landings. Therefore, the stock to watch this week may not be the Canadian banks reporting earnings, CostCo Warehouse Clubs, Dell Inc, NetApp, Ralph Lauren, Toll Brothers, or any of the other companies slated to deliver their quarter but the only public stock connected to Elon Musk—no matter SpaceX operating as a completely separate company.
Having said that, here are a few more items of note, starting with the rest of the Economic Calendar, which features the S&P/Case-Shiller March Home Sales & April New Home Sales, both due out Tuesday. Thursday, the National Association of Realtors releases April Pending Home Sales, while Toll Bros reports Wednesday, I ran through hundreds of charts, over the weekend, and was surprised to see how strong builders’ relative strength looked, while most of the other stocks that have been rising failed to exhibit anything better than a mostly flat RS on daily charts (video gamin stocks were the other exception demonstrating relative strength.)
Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari will appear with Lawrence Summers, and other notables, moderated by Tom Brokaw, on "Living in a COVID-19 World,: a topic very similar to the IIF—Institute of International Finance virtual meeting, "The EU, COVID-19 & the Future of Financial Services.". The ECB’s current chief economist, Lane, is the headline speaker on Tuesday. To accommodate a global audience, the IIF sessions will be streamed from 7am to 11:45am Washington DC time, then starting at noon London time, and again at 1pm Brussels time. The agenda can be found here.. Other boldface names include former ECB MPC members, and EU Commissioners.
On Wednesday, NY Fed chief John Williams will be meeting virtually with Long Island leaders from government, business & non-profits. The NY Fed itself will host "Too Important to Fail: Minority-Owned Businesses Navigating COVID-19 & Beyond," while the Dallas Fed Chief Kaplan’s speech, after hours, Tuesday, to the Money Marketeers of New York, is not detailed, at all. In fact, because it’s an external event, it was found off-site, rather than on the Dallas Fed’s website, 2 weeks ago, though it might be listed by now. Whatever his topic, the first reaction to Kaplan’s speech can’t be initiated until Wednesday’s trade. As if Wednesday didn’t have enough to capture rapt attention, with a space launch, the Fed’s Beige Book will be out at 2pm. The President & Vice President planning on attending what’s supposed to be a 3:33pm et launch—if the weather cooperates, all the major networks planning on covering it, some starting at 3pm. Thursday, of course, brings another weekly Jobless Claims report, continuing claims possibly declining, however slightly, as all 50 states began a period of early phase openings—no matter how limited. That should have brought back some employees previously claiming unemployment. While we’re on Thursday, not that the weekly Petroleum, Gasoline, Distillates & Refineries stats will be out that day, after the Natural Gas storage report, due to Monday’s holiday.
US April Personal Income & Spending, includes PCE, though the country was closed down that month—except for essential services like drug stores, groceries, and postal workers, so that’s a report that could be a total disaster. You’d think everyone knows that but you’ll be surprised at how harshly the street reacts, anyway, just as it did to the several early weekly jobless claims numbers everyone knew would be a disaster. Note, also, Friday, "A (video) Conversation with Jerome Powell," moderated by a former FOMC member, Alan Blinder, via Princeton University’s Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies. Baker-Hughes weekly Rig Count could et even more interesting, now that the total rig count is almost half what it was a year ago.
Thursday’s Las Vegas Sands Sands Cares INSPIRE is, apparently, cancelled. Tickets went on sale in February but the event is no longer shown on Sands’ site, just when it would have meant so much to so many, to have another charity event raise money. Originally planned to kick off Sheryl Crow’s tour, it appears it was canceled before anyone realized how widespread home video would be used once people were ordered to shelter-in-place and social distance.
There are more Earnings Reports of note, this week, beyond those already mentioned. That includes Hewlett-Packard, the PC & Printer company, Salesforce.com, Tech Data, and VMware. In the retail realm, there’s, also, Burllington Stores, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Nordstrom, Steve Madden, Ulta Beauty, Williams-Sonoma, Big Lots, and a pot company, Canopy Growth. Also notable, Sanderson Farms, one of the "meat" companies that have struggled to keep their processing facilities running, as workers catch the virus.
As for Events, there are more Investment Bank virtual events, those the majority of conferences going ahead as originally planned. Almost everything else has been canceled, postponed, or rescheduled for either later this year, or next year. And that includes events like the Indy 500 and French Open Tennis Championship. Of the I-bank events scheduled, we award Stifel for creativity, renaming an annual dental & veterinary event "Jaws & Paws." How 2 I-banks settled on 2 separate Best of Europe 1-on-1’s not just starting the same week but the same day (Wed.) will remain a bit of a mystery. Bernstein’s Strategic Decisions Virtual Conference is a 3-day, multi-sector event, like the Best ofs. But before those 3 events starting Wednesday, Tuesday promises Deutsche Bank’s (virtual, as you must presume for all subsequent I-bank events) Global Financial Services Investor Conference is an opportunity for all the participants to disclaim business as bad as their stocks suggest, if that’s the case.
Cowen’s Tech, Media & Telecom is the 48th Annual Conference, so an usually eagerly awaited event, two-thirds of the way through Q2. Then, again, there’s value in Jefferies’ IT Services Summit, even as CRM & TECD report, this week. Likewise, KeyBanc’s Industrials & Basic Materials Conference is a group that’s been promised an Infrastructure bill worth nearly a trillion dollars for years, and has yet to be passed. With unemployment at 15.0% or worse, and a 2nd wave possible (probable, if the numbers in Arkansas are any guide, and that was one of the first 8 states to reopen), now would be a really good time for Congress to work on that bill. RBC’s Global Consumer & Retail Conference arrives just as some of the worst hit retailers—apparel retailers--are about to report. SocGen’s Nice Conference is almost as eagerly anticipated as Cowen’s TMT. That starts Wednesday, too, along with Cowen’s 2020 Digital Dining: Restaurant & Food Technology. Local news programs here, in Florida, showed the crowds at beaches—including those from California, New York, New Jersey, and northern Florida but the Southern part of the state, where we are, has been locked in a series of downpours, interspersed with light rain, that eliminated any interest in beaches from the Keys north into Martin County.
I can’t believe MFW—Miami Fashion Week—can possibly go ahead as planned, given Miami-Dade County was given permission only 5/20, to partially open in Phase I starting Tuesday, the 27th but there was nothing on the site to indicate it was canceled or postponed. Maybe the swim designers are streaming their runway shows individually. We’ve seen everything, this month, so who knows? It just would have been nice if the site specified the plans, instead of leaving up something posted in February.
Normally, this week sees very light volume, as people who headed out of town stayed for the shortened week. Of course, we have no idea what the week will look like, as NYC because the epicenter of coronavirus in the US, many who owned or rented summer homes left as early as March, and haven’t been back since. And that’s the beauty of virtual conferences, people can tune in from anywhere, and often do so for at least a week after the video was first posted. Surprised at how optimistic the markets have been, I’ve been equally surprised to see the crowds on boardwalks and beaches, along with the lines waiting to enter water parks. Still, I can see myself going to a restaurant and eating outdoors (when it’s not raining) but can’t imagine sitting down in a restaurant to eat indoors—not after seeing the breadth spray wafting on air conditioning, in a restaurant in China, where dozens fell ill after eating at a table near where someone carried but wasn’t yet suffering from the virus. I recommend noticing the flattish relative strength index, even in most of the strongest stocks, and reminding that May though September are usually good months to be out of the market. And what I can’t see recovering for the foreseeable future are apparel retailers—except those catering to growing kids. Anyone who wanted more comfortable clothes to lounge around in while working from home has already bought them. With prices reduced by as much as 80% online, for weeks, shopping for clothes was easily accomplished and probably stole sales from stores reopening, now, and in the coming 2 weeks. Apparel retail is one area I’ avoid at all costs.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 05/24
National Peoples Congress continues (China thru 27th)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Germany Q1 GDP, IFO Current Conditions/Expectations
Japan Corporate Services Price Index, Core CPI, All Industry Activity Index
Israel MPC Interest Rate Decision
Mexico Trade Balance, Current Account
MONDAY, 05/25
US Holiday—Memorial Day ALL US Markets Closed
Holidays, also, in UK, Singapore & India
2nd Anniversary of Europe’s GDPR (aka Right to be Forgotten) Online Law
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
BoE Economist Haldane webinar to Confederation of British Industry (aka CBI)
Hungary MPC Interest & Deposit Rate Decision
TUESDAY, 05/26
Chicago Fed April National Activity Index
ECB’s Chief Economist Lane participant @virtual IIF European Conference: The EU, COVID-19 & Future of Financial Services (thru 27th 8:45am et)
ECB Financial Stability Review published (15:00 cet)
S&P/Case-Shiller March Home Price Index
NYSE (ICE) Partially Reopens the Trading Floor
Conference Board’s May Consumer Confidence
US April New Home Sales
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $63B 3-, & $54B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Fed’s Neel Kashkari, Lawrence Summers, Tom Brokaw &More @Living in a COVID-19 World (noon –3pm cdt)
US Treasury Auctions $65B reopened 42-day Bills & $44B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan speaks @Money Marketeers of NY (5:30pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
ECB Chief Lagarde @Dialogue for the European Youth 2020 event (9:30 cet)
Mexico Unemployment Rate
ECB’s Enria @virtual IIF European Conference: EU, COVID-19 & FinServices (7am et)
WEDNESDAY, 05/27
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Richmond Fed May Manufacturing/Services Index & Shipments
Dallas Fed May Services Revenues/Texas Services Sector Outlook
NY Fed’s Williams meets with Long Island Gov’t, Biz & Non-profits
NY Fed hosts "Too Important to Fail: Minority-Owned Businesses Navigating COVID-19 & Beyond
US Treasury Auctions $20B reopened 2-year FRNs & $40B reopened 119-day Bills-11:30am
US Treasury Auctions $25B reopened 273-day Bills & $45B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed’s Beige Book (2pm et)
SpaceX (TSLA-related) launches Astronauts into Space (Cape Kennedy, FL 3:33pm et)
API weekly Petroleum Stats (delayed by Monday’s holiday)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
South Korea MPC Interest Rate Decision
BoE MPC Saunders speaks
THURSDAY, 05/28
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims (8:30am et)
US Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
US GDP/PCE/Corporate Profits/Prices Paid
NAR April Pending Home Sales
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 05/22; 10:30am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (delayed by Mon. holiday;11am)
"A (video) Conversation with NY Fed Pres. John Williams" via Stony Brook Univ. College of Biz (11am et livestreamed)
US Treasury Auctions 4- & 8-week Bills (value not announced at post)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
FRB publishes Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions (pre-relaxation of rules 4:30pm)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Japan Apr Unemployment Rate, Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, May Consumer Confidence
German Apr Retail Sales, Import Prices, May CPI/HICP, PPI
UK BRC Shop Price Index, Nationwide House Prices, GfK May Consumer Confidence
Eurozone April CPI/HICP, May Business & Consumer Confidence/Expectations
Canada Q1 GDP, PPI, RMPI
FRIDAY, 05/29
US April International Trade Balance
US April Personal Income/Spending/PCE
US Wholesale Inventories
May Chicago PMI
"A (video) Conversation with Jerome Powell" moderated by Alan Blinder @Griswold Ctr for Economic Policy Studies/Princeton Univ. (streamed 11am et)
U.M. Final May Consumer Sentiment/Expectations
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No. Am. Oil/Total Rig Count (1pm; w/e 05/22)
SATURDAY, 05/30
China May Manufacturing, non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
Bank of Canada Chief Poloz Term Ends
WEEKS AHEAD: 06/02 RBA (Aussie) MPC Meets
06/03 BOC (Canada) MPC Meets
06/04 ECB MPC Meets
06/09—10 FOMC Meets
06/10 FOMC Statement (2pm), Powell Press Conference (2:30pm)
06/17 NY Fed kicks off Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility
06/18 BoE MPC Meets
EARNINGS: (We ignore "the" in a company name unless it’s integral to the ticker. Most times it isn’t. We highlight tickers we believe will attract the most attention—a subjective designation with which you’re free to disagree. We attempt to verify every listed report but for those IR sites that require permission for all cookies, we say no, so are sometimes thwarted. Those without an English site we could find, keep us out that way. In those cases, we rely on 3rd-parties presumed accurate, based on past experience, or they remain unconfirmed, followed by ???)
MONDAY, 05/25:
TUESDAY, 05/26: AMWD, AZO, bns???, BAH, CBL, COE, CNF, DOYU, ESLT, FANH, HEI, KEYS, UEPS, SBLK, STNE, VSAT
WEDNESDAY, 05/27: UHAL, ARCE, ADSK, BOSC, BMO, BEST, BGFV, BOX, goos, COHR, GOGL, HPQ, MBI, NVGS, NTAP, NTNX, PLAB, pvh???, RL, ry???, SMTC, SPTN, WISA, TOL, TSQ, TRB, vrnt???, VIPS, WDAY, YIN
THURSDAY, 05/28: ANF, ADVM, APYA, BURL, CM, CSIQ, CTRN, COST, DELL, DG, DLTR, DXC, GLNG, GMLP, HMLP, JP, KNOP, LL, MRVL, MOMO, JWN, OKTA, OLLI, PSTG, REX, RVB, CRM, SAFM, SHOO, TH, TECD, TITN, TD, TCOM, TG, ULTA, UONEK, VEEV, VMW, WSM, ZS
FRIDAY, 05/29: BIG, CGC, CIR, conn:???, ltm???, SOL,
EVENTS:
SUNDAY, 05/24
ACHCA: Am. College of Healthcare Administrators POSTPONED to June 9th Webinar
ACHA College Health Ass’n Annual Summit POSTPONED to June/July Webinars
ESMO Virtual Breast Cancer Meeting
101st Formula 1 Grand Prix de Monaco CANCELED
French Open POSTPONED to late September
NASCAR Coca Cola 600 (Charlotte NC Speedway/FOX TV 6pm et [FOXA]
Capital One’s (COF) Charity Golf "The Match: Champions for Chairty" (Hobe Sound, Tiger Woods/Peyton Manning vs Phil Michelson/Tom Brady play for $10m donation to COVID-19 Charity @Medalist Golf Club (Hobe Sound FL) Simulcast, @3pm et, on [T] TNT, truTV, TBS & HLN
MONDAY, 05/25
Memorial Day Holiday US Markets Closed
Stephens hosts Northeast & Mid-Atlantic CRE discussion w/Colliers (CIGI)
Vehicular Technology Online Conference (thru 28th)
Citi VIRTUAL Gauging China’s Reopen #2: Energy & Chemicals
AES (Audio Engineering) 148th VIRTUAL Convention (thru 28th)
JPMorgan Virtual Solar & Gas China Tour
RMB VIRTUAL Morgan Stanley (So. Africa) Banks Conference
TUESDAY, 05/26
Deutsche Bank Virtual Global Financial Services Investor Conference (thru 27th)
Cowen & Co 48th Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Virtual Conference (thru 28th)
Jefferies IT Services Virtual Summit
Key Industrials & Basic Materials Virtual Conference
Oppenheimer Virtual MedTech Conference (thru 27th)
Fubon-Jefferies Taiwan Corporate Access Virtual 1x1 Day (thru 27th)
Sachs Digital (Virtual) Immuno-Oncology Innovation Forum
Jefferfies Virtual Canada Summit
Content Delivery & Streaming Media East Webinar (thru 06/01)
Am. College of Sports Medicine CANCELED 7th Annual Meeting
recode CANCELED code2020 conference
EBACE CANCELED European Business Aviation Convention/Expo
Stoneridge Inc (SRI) CEO & CFO talk outlook w/Stephens (11am et)
WEDNESDAY, 05/27
SpaceX (TSLA-related) launches Astronauts into Space (Cape Canaveral FL 3:33pm et)
Bernstein 36th Strategic Decisions Virtual Conference (thru 29th)
Cowen 2020 Virtual Consumer Platforms for the Next Generation Summit
UBS Best of Europe Virtual 1-on-1 (thru 28th)
Wells Fargo Virtual Best of Europe One-on-One Conference (thru 28th)
Stifel Jaws & Paws Virtual Conference (Dental & Veterinary)
Societe Generale Virtual Nice Conference (thru 28th)
Morgan Stanley Virtual Conference (thru 28th)
Cowen 2020 Digital Dining: Restaurant & Food Technology Summit
RBC Virtual Global Consumer & Retail Conference (thru 28th)
Barclays High Grade Healthcare Virtual Credit Conference
Outsourcing in Clinical Trials A Virtual Experience
ChannelNEXT20 Virtual "Work from Home":event
Louisiana Virtual Energy Conference (thru 28th)
MFW--Miami Fashion Week & Swim (Miami FL thru 31st)
NACTA Air Traffic Controllers Postponed until late August
Platts CANCELED Northeast Power & Gas Markets Conference
Copenhagen Fashion Summit Postponed to October
RISI Asian Forest Investment Conference POSTPONED
NEPCON Korea (Seoul Korea thru 29th)
8x8 (EGHT) CFO talks with Stehens (noon et)
AT&T (T)’s HBO MAX Streaming Service Launches
CNO Financial (CNO) management call with B RileyFBR clients
DMC Global (BOOM) CEO & IR VP marketing w/Stephens
Dolby Labs (DLB) virtual non-deal roadshow w/B RileyFBR
Hanesbrands Inc (HBI) CEO & CFO Conf. Calls with C L King clients
LQK (LQK) CEO, CFO & IR VP marketing w/Stephens
NiSource (NI) virtual group meeting w/Wolfe Research
Origin Bancorp (OBNK) marketing w/Stephens (10:30am et)
TTM Technologies Inc (TTMI) management call w/B RileyFBR
THURSDAY, 05/28
Jefferies Health & Wellness Virtual Summit
Cowen Virtual TMT Conference
KBW Virtual Real Estate Finance & Technology Conference
Bk of America Emerging Markets Virtual Credit & Equity Conference (thru 31st??)
Citi Virtual Regional Tech Investor Conference (thru 29th)
SANS VIRTUAL Cloud Security Summit (thru 06/05)
Daiwa-Thanachart Thailand Corporate Virtual Corporate Days (thru 29th)
Arcosa Inc (ACA) CFO marketing w/Stephens
Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH) virtual non-deal roadshow w/B RileyFBR
DockerCon 2020 Live Online @CUBE (9am gmt)
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) CANCELED Sands Cares INSPIRE w/Sheryl Crow & other Stars to benefit Green Our Planet &Nevada Partnership for Homeless Youth?? May have been canceled
Nexstar Media Group Inc (NXST) virtual NDR/Mngmnt Call
Novartis (NVS) mngmnt ESG materiality assessment webinar: sickle cell disease (9am edt)
Zynex Inc (ZYXI) management call w/B RileyFBR
Las Vegas CANCELED Int’l Film Festival Summit
FRIDAY, 05/29
Jefferies Structured Winners Virtual Conference
Wolfe Research hosts virtual Restaurant & Food Retail Access Day
ASCO--Am. Society of Clinical Oncology VIRTUAL Spring Scientific Program (thru 06/01)
58th ASNR Virtual Neuroradiology Annual
11th Biomarkers & Clinical Research Webinar (thru 30th)
RVIA Canceled RVs Move America Week
Amgen (AMGN) Virtual ASCO Scientific Program Highlights (1pm pdt)
C H Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) CEO marketing w/Stephens (11am et)
Cisco (CSCO) Connect Virtual Meeting
EA [EA] ApexLegends Global Online Tournament Finals [AMZN] Twitch & [GOOG] YouTunbe (thru 31st)
DisneyLand [DIS] 1st Anniversary of opening of Star Wars Galaxy’s Edge and the park is closed (Anaheim CA)
Roche (RHHBY) ADR Virtual presentation & Q&A detailingv studies presented @ASCO (11am edt)
TravelZoo (TZOO) Virtual Annual Shareholder Meeting EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2020 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2020 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.