What You missed LAST Week
FOMC MEETS, EVEN AS I-BANKS CRANK OUT MORE CONFERENCES
September 14—18, 2020 The FOMC meets, with Jerome Powell’s press conference wrapping it up on Wednesday, at 2:30pm et. Other than to reiterate how little the members are thinking about thinking about higher rates, there’s not much for him to say. The new policy of averaging inflation around 2.0% was widely stated even before Powell’s speech at the virtual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Summit made it official—later confirmed by a vote of FOMC members. Of course, what does it really matter if, in the 10 years after the 2008 "Great Recession," inflation only exceeded that level very briefly, just in time for the latest "Greater" Recession, though what was (or is) ‘great’ about either one of them remains a mystery to me.
I’m not sure there’s reason to expect anything more exciting from the Bank of Japan Rate Meeting, which wraps on Thursday, or late Wednesday, if one is in the US. Perhaps more consequential for that country is Japan’s Liberal Democrats Vote (on the Economic Calendar for the 14th). It might seem out of left field but Shinzo Abe resigned, pending the selection of a successor, and that vote could wind up with a new Japanese Prime Minister. Also on the 14th, the unfamiliar SUERF event at which ECB’s Lane speaks is the European Money & Finance web Forum—a fireside chat on the Economic Outlook, the ECB’s monetary policy, and financial market implications. It’s supposedly a two and a half hour chat.
At the Institute of International Finance Conference, besides ECB’s Pentti Hakkarainen, other speakers include the CEO of Itau-Unibanco, Chairman of BBVA, Ping An Insurance co-CEO, Microsoft'’ Managing Director of FinServices, Monetary Authority of Singapore, Raghuran
Rajan, the former head of the India Central Bank, Standard Chartered plc'’ Chief Data officer, OEC D, Commonwealth Bank Ex-General Manager of Compliance, and many more top drawer execs. .
The 7th Conference on Sovereign Bond Markets boasts a stellar collection of co-sponsors, too many to name on the Economic Calendar. It includes Deutsche Bundesbank, NYU’s Stern School of Business, Imperial College Business School, ECB, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Mitsui Life Financial Research Center, U.M. Ross School of Business, SAFE (Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe), and the Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. The welcome remarks are from newish BoE Gov Andrew Bailey. Other BoE MPCs either speaking or members of panels include Vlieghe & Broadbent but, otherwise, the speakers/panelists are more from behind the scenes, and less well known, with the exception of Joseph Stigitz, an economist who’s as close to a household name as they come, thanks to a Nobel Prize.
On the 18th, the NY Fed says its VP & Deputy Head of Market Operations Monitoring & Analysis is speaking at the Bank Policy Institute’s (BPI) "Credit-Sensitive Benchmark Symposium" but there’s no such event listed at the BPI website, and a search at BPI for that event, in particular, drew a blank. We’re not surprised to see accelerated discussion of the coming use of a LIBOR replacement, just not one that includes bank officials that the organizers don’t bother to list.
Wednesday is notable for more than just the FOMC post-Meeting Statement, member economic projections, and Powell’s presser because there’ll also be MBA’s weekly Mortgage Apps, US Aug Retail Sales, July Business Inventories, NAHB’s Sept Housing Market Index, and EIA’s Petroleum, Gasoline, Distillates, & Refineries Report, back on its usual schedule, after last week’s Labor Day one-day delay. Of course, Thursday’s weekly Initial Jobless claims & Continuing Claims will take a starring role, as it usually does, even as equity markets seem to ignore the tale they tell. Note, also, Rosh Hashana starts at Sundown, Friday, what’s already known as the High Holy Days elevated because it falls on the Sabbath, as well. Even though most are still working remotely, many of those from home, expect the usual early fall in volume, Friday, as Jewish traders turn off their screens for at least one night and day.
So it’s said, OPEC’s Monthly Report is expected early Monday morning, IEA’s into Tuesday’s opening, even as the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee also meets in gthe wee hours of Thursday.
The Earnings Calendar is very slender but includes Lennar on Monday, Adobe, Cracker Barrel Restaurant & Old country Store, and FedEx on Tuesday, and Herman Miller on Thursday. Given the upscale office furniture Miller sells, it could be awhile before executive suites will be redone, no matter how many CEO’s retire. It just wouldn’t look good during a recession, while any upper level management who had to redo home offices to accommodate their remote schedule has, probably, already done so.
Which brings us to the Events Calendar, chock full of Investment Bank events. Monday is especially busy, though so is Tuesday, Wednesday’s thinner schedule, perhaps, acknowledgment of the upcoming Jewish Holiday. The notable events on Monday include Morgan Stanley’s 18th Global Healthcare Conference, Barclays Global Financial Services, JP Morgan’s Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant, & Leisure Management Access, and Deutsche Bank’s Technology Conference, all virtual events it should go without saying.
Tuesday notables include Goldman Sach’s Communcacopia, JPMorgan’s 11th US All Stars, Morgan Stanley’s 8th Annual Laguna (Industrials), and Credit Suisse’s 33rd Basic Materials Conferences. Thursday, AGA’s Finance Committee Mini-Forum for the Financial Community & Investor Relations Mini Workshop are not the BIG Annual IR Conferences the Street waits for all year. Then, again, despite all the I-bank conferences, it’s possible the Pfizer & Roche R&D days, both scheduled for Monday, Pfizer’s a 2-day affair, as well as Apple’s Press Event, and Kraft Heinz’s IR Day, could have more impact than some of the corporate-packed virtual conferences that offer too many companies to choose from. One reason for that is the likelihood that analysts will turn into at least 3 of those 4 events in real time, while the I-bank presentations can be replayed, most without fear of one analyst getting a jump on another one. The 4th, KHC, was a filed merger that the pandemic helped rescue with more people working from home, eating at home, and cooking at home. It’s worth noting that Apple’s invitation read, "Time Flies," which leads many to believe it’s about a new watch, especially since it announced, previously, that the next iPhones won’t be released until October, instead of September, as they usually are. Either way, Apple, Pfizer & Roche events are likely to be well-attended in real-time.
All of which is a long-winded route to ;point out the obvious: What people really want to know is whether the Nasdaq correction has run its course or has more to go. I favor another 5.0% to the downside, though believe a sooner attempt to regain some lost ground could come first. It’s amazing to me that Trump takes credit for all the equity market’s upside and doesn’t seem to realize that the downside has been coming after the latest revelations of his dishonesty or obfuscation. The fact that there’s so much evidence of Trump’s misdeeds is most disturbing, of all, because it confirms he doesn’t know the difference between right and wrong. How can he claim he thought misleading the American public about the severity of coronavirus was an attempt to prevent panic, when that'’ just what every one of his trump for president TV commercials attempts to do-—claiming Joe Biden wants to defund the police, and lawlessness will be Biden’s hallmark, even as the Dow will collapse if he isn’t re-elected. The bulls will have their work cut out for them, if they see an easy path to the upside between now, and a few days prior to the election, on November 3rd. And that’s the typical pattern pre-election: weak September and buyers emerging a couple of days before October ends. And to top it off, the old Street axiom says, "Sell Rosh Hashana and buy Yom Kippur," For the record, Yom Kippur begins at sundown, Sunday, September 27th.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 09/13
ECB Chief Lagarde virtual remarks to Council of Arab Central Banks & Monetary Authorities’ Governors (11:30 cet)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
Japan Sept Reuters Tankan Index, Liberal Democratic Leadership (PM) Vote
China Aug House Price Index
Eurozone July Industrial Production
Eurogroup Meets
BoE’s Breeden @Confederation of British Industry Conf. Series: "Achieving Net-Zero" (1:00 bst)
OPEC Monthly Oil Report
MONDAY, 09/14
ECB’s Lane chats @SUERF’s Chief Economists webinar (15:30 cet)
US Treasury Auctions $54B 3-, & $51B 6-month Bills (11:30 am et)
US Treasury Report
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
RBA (Aussie) Meeting Minutes, Q2 House Price Index
China Nat’l Bureau of Statistics Press Conference on Aug Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate
UK June Employment Change, Jul Unemployment Rate. Aug Claimant Count
IEA Monthly Oil Report
Institute for Int’l Finance Digital Interchange: The Global Dialogue on Digital Finance (thru 17th)
Eurozone Sept ZEW Economic Sentiment Index/Current Conditions/Outlook
TUESDAY, 09/15
Redbook weekly Store Sales Snapshot
US Aug Import/Export Prices
NY Fed/Empire State Sept Manufacturing Index
FOMC 2-day Meeting Starts
US Aug Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
US Treasury Auctions $30B reopened 119-day & $30B reopened 42-day Bills (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $22B reopened 20-year Bonds (1pm et)
API weekly Crude Report (back on regular schedule)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
UK Aug CPI, PPI, Retail Price Index (RPI), House Price Index
Eurozone July Trade Balance
ECB’s Hakkarainen speaks @Institute of Int’l Finance webinar (15:00 cet)
WEDNESDAY, 09/16
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US Aug. Retail Sales
US July Business Inventories
NAHB Sept Housing Market Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (w/e 09/11; 10:30 et)
FOMC post-Meeting Statement & Member Projections (2pm edt)
FOMC Chief Powell’s Press Conference (2:30pm et)
St Louis Fed ‘Election Economics: A Virtual Event about Real People & Pocketbooks’ (4pm et)
US July TICS
Brazil Interest Rate Decision
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et
ADB Asian Development Bank 53rd Annual virtual Meeting (thru 18th)
RBA (Aussie) Bulletin
BoJ Interest Rate/QE Decisions & Transactions with Government & Markets
BoJ post-Meeting Press Conference (09/17 local time)
Eurozone 27 Jul New Car Registrations/Aug Production
Swiss Aug Trade Balance/Watch Exports
Indonesia Interest Rate/Deposit & Lending Rate Decisions
Taiwan Interest Rate Decision
Hong Kong Aug Unemployment Rate (when will China consolidate?)
BoE Gov Bailey opens 7th Sovereign Bond Markets Conference (thru 18th)
OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Cmte Meets on Production Quotas Compliance
THURSDAY, 09/17
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims (8:30am et)
US Aug Housing Starts Building Permits
Fed’s Bostic opens Atlanta Fed/Princeton Bendheim Ctr for Finance virtual Conference on Racial Justice & Finance (thru 18th)
Philly Fed Sept Manufacturing Index
Boston Fed "Measuring Disparities in Cost/Spending across CT School Districts (9am)
K.C. Fed/FDIC/OCC/CRA Wyoming Interagency CRA virtual Roundtable (10am)
Fed’s Evans @Chicago Fed/Sadie Collective "Exploring Career Pathways in Economics & Related Fields" (10am c t thru 18th)
South Africa Interest/Prime/Overdraft Ragte Decisions
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 09/11; 10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (values not announced at time of post)
US Treasury Auctions $12B reopened 10year TIPS (1pm et)
Dallas Fed virtual "Discussing Race & Inequality in the Classroom" (7pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Japan Aug CPI/Core CPI
German Aug PPI/WPI
EU July Current Account
Russia Interest Rate Decision, CBR Press Conference
ECB’s de Guindos panelist @Foro Empressarial Mirando a Europa (11:15 cet)
BoE Flagship Seminar (webinar) Chief Economist Haldane w/Google AI PAIR Co-leader Fernanda Viegas
FRIDAY, 09/18
ECB’s Schnabel online panelist @Deutscher Juristentag Hamburg 2020 (16:00 cet)
US Q2 Current Account
Breakfast with the Fed: Two Pandemics, One Solution (9am et)
Canada July Retail Sales, Aug New Housing Price Index, Aug Wholesale + Retail Sales
Richmond Fed DivEc Diverse Economics Conference (10am)
Baker-Hughes US/No. Am. Oilt/Total Rig Count (1pm et)
Rosh Hashana (Jewish New Year) starts at Sundown (Trade dries up before 3pm)
SATURDAY, 09/19
Rosh Hashana
24 Hours until Deadline for ByteDance to sell TikTok US Operations
WEEKS AHEAD:
09/24 BoJ Minutes of July 14—15th Meeting
NY Fed Economic Inequality Series: Impact of COVID on Communities of Color…
09/26 SF Fed’s Daly & Gov Clarida keynote "A Hot Economy: Sustainability & Trade-offs’
09/29 Fed’s Williams, SEC, CFTC, OCC, speak @2020 US Treasury Market Conference
09/29--10/01 2nd NY Fed Research Conference on FinTech
09/30 Comic Books in the Classroom: A Look at NY Fed Educational Comic Book Series
09/30--10/01 St Louis Fed Community Banking Research virtual Conference
10/08—09 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research virtual Conference/Focus on Resilience
EARNINGS: (We ignore "The" in a corporate name unless integral to the ticker. Emboldened tickers are those we think the media/PM’s will focus on, even if we don’t see the value. Lower case tickers followed by question marks are tickers we found on other Earnings Calendars that we couldn’t confirm, sometimes because we’re blocked for declining most cookies. For the record, ‘MIND’ is now MIND Technology, until very recently, Mitcham Industries.)
MONDAY, 09/14: ASPU, csbr???, ICMB, LEN, MIND, rlgt???, RUHN, VNCE, virc???
TUESDAY, 09/15: ADBE, CLIR, CBRL, MOHO, DAVA, FDX, FRAN, pzg???
WEDNESDAY, 09/16: BRC, coda???
THURSDAY, 09/17: APOG, EARS, CMD, MLHR, ISR, OSH, schl???.
FRIDAY, 09/18: AFIB, aytu???
EVENTS:
SUNDAY, 09/13
Citi’s GEM (Global Emerging Markets) virtual Conference (thru 17th)
New York Designer virtual Fashion Catwalks (thru 16th)
Nat’l virtual Conference on Pain for Frontline Practitioners
Hypertension virtual Annual
32nd ECNP Virtual Congress of Neuropsychopharmacology (thru 15th)
Psychiatric & Mental Health virtual Congress
Global Lightweight (vehicle) Seating Materials & Technology Webinar Series (thru 17th)
Congress of Nuclear Cardiology virtual Scientific Sessions (thru 10/07)
2020 World Aluminum Conference Virtual Series (thru 12/09)
ACI-NA Airports Council CANCELED Annual
STMicroelectronics (STM) STM32 China Roadshow (thru 25th)
Sunday NFL (professional football) Returns
PAX Prime virtual (thru 20th)
US Open (Tennis) Men’s Championship (Flushing Meadow Pd, NY)
MONDAY, 09/14
Morgan Stanley 18th Global Healthcare virtual Conference (thru 16th)
Barclays Global virtual Financial Services Conference (thru 16th)
Deutsche Bank Technology virtual Conference (thru 15th)
Jefferies Software Virtual Conference (thru 15th)
JPMorgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurants, & Leisure Management Access (thru 16th)
Peters & Co 2020 virtual Energy Conference (thru 17th)
RBC Entertainment Virtual Conference (thru 17th)
Wells Fargo Net Lease REIT Virtual Forum (ADC, GLPI, LXP, NNN, O, SRC, VER VICI, WPC)
Citi ESG & Alpha: The New Active Management virtual Event (thru 16th)
Stifel virtual Executive Summit
H C Wainwright 22nd Global virtual Investment Conference (thru 16th)
ROTH Capital Solar became Sustainability and moved to October
Bloomberg Green virtual Summit (thru 18th)
AHIP Nat’l virtual Conference on Medicare, Medicaid & Dual Eligibles (thru 17th)
Conference Board’s Employee Health & Productivity Virtual Forum (thru 18th)
NATPE virtual Streaming (thru 17th)
Multifamily Housing Council Fall BoD & Advisory Cmte virtual event (thru 17th)
NAIC Virtual Insurance Summit (thru 15th)
NAFA Institute virtual Expo & Int’l Fleet Management (thru 17th)
CRI-ENCI-AACR 6th Int’l Cancer Immunotherapy Virtual Conference
52nd Waste Virtual Expo (thru 17th)
CFDA/NYFW virtual Womenswear Fashion Week (thru 16th)
Virtual AdWeek Europa postponed until 09/29
Retail Council of Canada CANCELED
EIC Energy Infrastructure Council Annual: Panels to be Announced at a Future Date
dbw Digital Book World Virtual Conference/Expo (thru 16th)
TechCrunch virtual Disrupt (thru 18th)
Citi Insurance in Monte Carlo Virtually (thru 17th)
RMB Morgan Stanley Big Five Conference (Cape Town So. Africa thru 15th)
Jefferies Asia Forum (HK in-person + Virtual thru17th)
FDA/PDA (Parenteral Development Ass’n) Jt Virtual Annual Mtg (thru 16th)
SkinInc Virtual Face & Body Event (thru 16th)
FIPP DIS: Digital Innovation Virtual Summit (thru 16th)
Platts 36th Asia Pacific Petroleum virtual Forum (APPEC thru 16th)
124th Boston Marathon CANCELED
American Water Works (AWK) NDR with Wolfe Research
CTS Corp (CTS) non-deal virtual marketing w/Stephens
Koppers Holdings Inc (KOP) management call w/B Riley Financial
Pfizer (PFE) virtual Pipeline & potential R&D blockbusters Investor Day at 1pm edt (thru 15th when it starts at 10am edt)
Roche Pharma virtual R&D Day Focus on Pharma Strategy, culture, organization, productivity & newtech market opportunities (8am edt)
ServiceSource Int'l Inc (SREV) virtual NDR w/B Riley Financial
PGA US Open (Mamaroneck NY (thru 20th)
TUESDAY, 09/15
Goldman Sachs Communacopia virtual Conference (thru 16th)
BMO 21st Annual Media & Telecom virtual Conference
JPMorgan 11th Annual US All Stars virtual Conference (thru 17th)
Morgan Stanley 8th Annual Laguna (Industrials) virtual Conference (thru 17th)
Bank of America Global Healthcare virtual Conference
Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare virtual Conference (thru 17th)
Raymond James North American Equities virtual Conference (thru 17th)
Credit Suisse 33rd Basic Materials virtual Conference
RBC Capital Global Industrials virtual Conference (thru 16th)
Scotiabank Back to School Consumer Conference
Bank of America Global REIT virtual Conference (thru 16th)
UBS 2020 Renewables & Energy Transition virtual Conference (thru 16th)
Jefferies Home Retail virtual Summit (W, HOME, LEG, BBBY)
Credit Suisse virtual Hydrogen Day
NRF Chain Restaurant CEO virtual Policy Summit
Digital (Auto) Dealer virtual Conference/Expo (thru 17th)
2020 Precious Metals virtual Summit (thru 17th)
Berenberg Energy virtual Conference
21st Annual Global Automotive Logistics & Supply Chain virtual Conference (thru 17th)
IBC virtual TIDES, Oligonucleotide & Peptide Therapeutics (thru 18th)
DSE Digital Signage Expo (thru 17th)
Fairchild Cul+ture virtual Conference
Shale Water Management online Marcellus & Utica
ComVEC SAE Commercial Vehicle virtual Engineering Congress (thru 17th)
MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Owners) Industry virtual Summit (thru 17th)
Talent Leader virtual Exchange (thru 16th)
IMN Global ABS Virtual (thru 17th)
Credit Suisse Asia Gaming Corporate virtual Day (thru 16th)
Denim by Premier Vision Digital Paris Show (thru 16th)
Seatrade Cruise Global rescheduled for Oct
FDA Pediatric AdCom virtual Announcement to discus several devices for pediatric patients
American Finance Trust Inc (AFIN) NDR with Strategas
Apple Inc (AAPL) virtual Press Event "Time Flies" (1pm et)
Crocs Inc (CROX) management call w/B Riley Financial
Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Investor Day (8am edt)
Microsoft (MSFT) Launches Xbox Game Pass Ultimate w/100 Games
Murphy Oil (MUR) virtual marketing w/Stephens
WEDNESDAY, 09/16
Citi Small/Mid-Cap Growth virtual Conference (thru 17th)
Wells Fargo 3rd Annual Consumer virtual Conference (thru 17th)
NYSE Energy & Utilities virtual Event
CIBC 19th Annual Eastern Institutional Investor virtual Conference (thru 17th)
C.L.King 18th Best Ideas virtual Conference
Berenberg Food Ingredients & Chemicals virtual Conference (thru 17th)
Automotive News Retail Forum webinar
12th Annual Super Returns US East virtual (thru 18th)
Morningstar Digital Investment Conference (thru 17th)
Intelligence & National Security virtual Summit (thru 18th)
FOMC post-Meeting Statement (2pm edt)
FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference (2:30pm edt)
Open Mainframe Linux virtual Summit (thru 17th)
Pareto Securities 27th Energy Conference (Oslo Norway thru 17th)
JPMorgan China Home Appliance & Furnishings virtual Tour (thru 18th)
ASBMR 13th Int’l Conference on Osteoporosis, Arthritis & Musculoskeletal Disorders (Dubai UAE thru 17th)
Waterfest Board virtual Demo Day @virtual Surf Expo (thru 18th)
AGA CANCELED 2020 Investor Relations Workshop
Alta Equipment Group Inc (ALTG) virtual NDR w/B Riley Financial
Amazon (AMZN) Mass hiring day (seeks 33K workers)
American Finance Trust Inc (AFIN) virtual NDR w/B Riley
CSG Systems Int'l Inc (CSGS) virtual NDR w/B Riley Financial
Energy Recovery Inc (ERI) mangement call w/B Riley
First Foundation Inc (FFWM) Management call w/B Riley
Sensient Techonologies (SXT) virtual marketing s/Stephens
55th ACM (Country Music) Awards CBS TV (VIAC)