What You missed LAST Week:
EARNINGS & EVENTS SHOULD DOMINATE
January 11—15, 2021 The first thing you have to know is that the week ends on a day many workers in 23 states will first see a rise in their hourly pay, as the minimum wage is rising in half the states, this year, but not all of them as of January 1st. Many issue pay twice a month, so Friday, the 15th, will be a big day. Second, the week ends into a 3-day weekend, as Monday, the 18th, is the Martin Luther King Jr Holiday, one of the few when US markets are closed. Then, on the 20th, of course, we’ll see the inauguration of Joseph Biden Jr as the 46th President of the United States, and not a day too soon, after last week’s insurrection and storming of the Capitol, instigated by the departing President. There is no early close this Friday, in any market.
Many believe Monday will see the second impeachment of Donald Trump—a first for any US President. Rare enough for an impeachment but 2 for one single term President, unprecedented. Some Democrats worry that impeachment will wind up a diversion, early in Biden’s new presidency, derailing his plans for his first 100 days. Well, there’s little chance that Trump will resign, and at least one reason to impeach him is because it would then be impossible for him to try for a second term in 2024. Some Dems have called on Biden to call off the impeachment plans but he’s already stated his reaction, if anyone was listening. It’s up to Congress, not him.
The Federal Reserve is hosting an Artificial Intelligence Virtual Symposium, starting Tuesday, with Fed Gov. Lael Brainard doing kick-off honors. The Racism & Economy—Focus on Education V-Summit requires some explanation, given the 4 regional Fed Bank CEOs speaking. They’re speaking on successive days, each of them starting at 11am. Also Tuesday, release of NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index, Nov. JOLTS—Job Openings & Quits.
Other notable Economic Events include Dec CPI on Wednesday, the weekly MBA Mortgage Data, and the Fed’s Beige Book, along with Fed Vice Chair Clarida on the Fed’s New Framework—Average 2.0% Inflation over a sustained period of time. The disaster of the day, Wednesday, will be the Federal Government’s December Budget Statement, though it’s doubtful the freshly issued $600 per most people Pandemic Stimulus payment will be included, since those seem to have hit most bank accounts on January 4th but it’s not impossible that they show up in the Dec. statement. Trump finds ways to be proud of distinctions most presidents would shun, so running the biggest budget deficit in a single non-war year could be one of ‘em. Fed Gov Brainard is also speaking Wednesday, at the Canadian Association of Business Economics, which will run through the 14th. Her speech is the Inaugural Mike McCracken :lecture on Full Employment. In recent months, she’s more often spoken on revisions to and other facets of the Community Redevelopment Act, CRA. The moderator for her speech is Carolyn Wilkins, the Senior Deputy Governor of the Bk of Canada, often appearing with the former Governor, Poloz, at his monetary policy post-meeting press conferences.. The companion group, TABE, is the Toronto Association for Business Economics, which dominates the sessions on the 14th, ‘Cities Post-Covid: What does the Future Hold?’
While Trump has not been a fan of climate change—even opening Alaska to more oil drilling, the Federal Reserve has jumped on the risks of climate change, Thursday several regional Fed bank sponsored virtual events, though FOMC Chair Powell’s speech that day is not on climate, that we know of. And advertised as a "conversation," rather than a speech, expect more Q&A than prepared text. Friday, Dec. Retail Sales & PPI, along with Business & Retail Inventories, the Empire State NY Fed Jan Manufacturing Index, and University of Michigan’s first look at consumer sentiment, this year. It was only a year ago, Friday, that China’s Vice President Liu arrived in D.C. to sign the first phase of the Trade Agreement. I said at the time, the fact that Xi wasn’t coming felt telling, and it turns out, that might have been the case. Even given the unusual year, disrupted by COVID-19, there doesn’t seem a chance in Hades that China will fulfill the purchases promised in Phase 1, and there certainly won’t be a Trump Phase 2—just as everyone speculated last year..
ECB Pres Lagarde is speaking at Reuters Next Virtual Event. That takes place across 3 different time zones—SGT, GMT, EST, starting at 5:30am GMT. The Next V-Event, is subtitled "Rethink, rebuild, recover." Besides ECB Pres Lagarde, speakers include Google CEO Sundar Pichai, FaceBook’s Sheryl Sandberg, AirBnB CEO Brian Chesky, Sir Tim Berners-Lee, CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Chevron CEO Michael Wirth, World Nuclear Ass’n Dir. Gen, Polar Explorer Ann Daniels, U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change Exec Sec’y, Women’s Earth & Climate Action Network Int’l, Columbia Univ Ctr for Sustainable Development, Lloyd’s of London Market Ass’n, Legal & General Investment Mngmnt, Indorama Ventures, Climate Bonds Initiative, Centrus Energy Corp, Baker Hughes CEO, Novelis, Natura & Co LatAm, Moody’s Investor Service, church of England Pensions Board, Albemarle Pres. Lithium GBU, Stockholm Environment Institute, Greenpeace USA, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Shell Chief Climate Change Advisor, Refinitiv, Chile Minster of Energy & Mining (and many other 3rd world ministers), Univ of Oxford. Next runs through January 14th, across several tracks: Sustainable Future, Media & Free, Recovering Growth, Radical Redesign, Policy & Progress.
The Earnings Calendar promises intense interest. Monday, it’s the disaster that’s Carnival Cruiselines, and Charles Schwab, which hasn’t seemed hurt by either free equity trades or rock-bottom interest rates. Wednesday, Albertson’s, which came public just in time to become an "essential" retailer, and K B Homes, builders flourishing with mortgage rates at all time lows, despite rising prices for land, lumber and other requirements to build houses. Thursday, Earnings are coming from BlackRock, Delta Airlines, and Taiwan Semiconductor. Friday, a bankalooza, with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial, & Wells Fargo. While Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs won’t be reporting until the following week, much of what anyone would need to know will be revealed by dissecting this week’s reports.
That brings us to the Events Calendar, for which, this week, we tried something new. We underlined the events likely to attract the most attention, while also putting related but unaffiliated events below each of the main events. For instance, JPMorgan’s 39th Healthcare Conference is often the most important healthcare event of the first quarter. Several events have sprung up around JPM’s, occurring this year, even though they can’t be co-located. Likewise, the ICR Conference is one of the biggest of the year for retail, restaurants, and apparel/footwear manufacturing, around which has sprung any number of I-bank events. Ditto CES—the Consumer Electronics Show, of which, Goldman Sachs’ Tech & Internet V-Conference is just one, likely to be the better attended event, this year, than the Digital CES. Nonetheless, Verizon’s CEO is offering the opening Keynote, while Samsung is expected to be another keynote highlight, Thursday, at Digital Hollywood, that includes unveiling of new Galaxy mobile devices. JPMorgan’s 19th Annual Tech/Auto V-Forum is another CES-related event, as is Sunday’s IEEE V-Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE) and Digital Hollywood’s Digital Experience. Thursday’s SAE Connect2Car & the Automotive News Future of Mobility V-event are all regular CES affiliated events. Even the Chicago Fed’s Automotive Insights (Wed.) is timed coincident to CES.
Time was, the Peters & Co Winter Energy Conference would be one of the biggest events of the year—you don’t hold something 27 prior times, if that’s not true but this year could get lost in the flood of events starting Monday. Ditto Needham’s 23rd Annual Growth V-Conference, Monday, and AAS—the Astronomical Society’s 237th Event, also Monday, for which you should think Space. Were I a fly on the wall of Credit Suisse’s Tuesday Aircraft Leasing V-Conference, I’d expect to hear whispered speculation about Indonesia’s latest Boeing aircraft disaster, though even news anchors reporting the event were outspoken about lax maintenance out of Indonesia, and the age of the aircraft. Still, just a couple of days after Boeing agreed to pay a $2.5B fine for fraud in its dealings with the FAA, the latest crash can’t just be ignored, even if it wasn’t a 737 MAX that fell out of the sky, into the sea.
And even though monthly Options don’t mean as much as they used to, given the growing popularity of weekly options, it must be remembered that the January options expiring at the end of this week could have been purchased as much as 3 years ago, at a time they were LEAPs. Granted, few hold onto options that long, and most should have been sold as the coronavirus sell-off started in March, it’s still a fact that some suffer so badly from inertia they could well be holding onto options that bought that long ago, waiting for Friday’s deadline to finally exit or call the underlying shares. And more important than all the events detailed above and below, is the fact that by Friday, we’ll be looking at a 3-day weekend, before coming back for just one full day before Joseph Biden Jr’s inauguration as the 46th President of the Unites States, closing out a sad chapter in U.S. history.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar is here)
SUNDAY, 01/10
102nd American Farm Bureau Federation V-Conference (thru 13th)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
China Dec CPI & PPI
Mexico Nov Industrial Production
MONDAY, 01/11
BoE’s Teneyro on "Let’s Talk about Negative Interest Rates" (text published 14:00 gmt)
ECB Pres Lagarde moderator @France, U.N., + World Bank "One Planet" V-Summit for biodiversity (15:40 cet; Paris FR)
BoE’s dir. of FinMarket Infrastructure webinar on forthcoming consultation on Supervision of International Banks (15:00 gmt)
US Treasury Auctions $54B 3-, & $51B 6-month Bills
US Treasury Auctions $58B 3-year Notes
Bk of Canada Business Outlook Survey
Virtual Town Hall w/Dallas Fed CEO Robert Kaplan (5pm webcast live)
Japanese Holiday
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Japan Dec Bank Lending, Eco Watchers Dec Outlook, Nov Current Account
BoE’s Broadbent: "Covid & the composition of spending" (10:00 gmt)
So. Africa Nov Manufacturing Production, Total 2020 Vehicle Sales
India Nov Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Dec CPI
TUESDAY, 01/12
NFIB Dec Business Optimism Index
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fed Gov Brainard on AI & FinServices @FRB A.I. V-Symposium (9:35am et; thru 13th)
US Nov JOLTS (Job Openings & Quits)
Conference Board’s Dec Employment Trends Index
US Treasury Auctions $30B reopened 119-day & $30B reopened 42-day Bills
Fed’s Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari & Rosengren speak @Racism & the Economy-Focus on Education (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B reopened 10-year Notes
Fed’s Rosengren 2021 Economic V-Overview to Boston Chamber of Commerce (2pm et)
OVERNGIHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Japan Dec Machine Tool Orders
German Dec Wholesale Prices
ECB’s Lagarde Q&A @Reuters Next V-Event (10:00 cet thru 14th)
Eurozone Nov Industrial Production
WEDNESDAY, 01/13
MBA weekly Mortgage Purchase/Refinance Applications (w/e 01/08)
US Dec CPI/Core CPI
FRB Chicago 27th Annual Automotive Insights V-Symposium (9:30am)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am et; w/e 01/08)
Fed Gov Brainard "The Economic Outlook & Full Employment" @CABE (1pm et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 30-year Bonds
Minneapolis Fed 2021 Regional Economic Conditions V-Conference
Federal Reserve Beige Book (2pm et)
US Treasury Dec. Budget Statement
Fed V.Ch. Clarida discusses FRB’s new Framework: Context & Consequences (2pm)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
Japan Nov Machinery Orders, Dec PPI
UK RICS Dec House Price Balance
China Dec Trade Balance, FDI, Vehicle Sales, New Yuan Loans, Total Loans Outstanding, Total Social Financing
German 2020 GDP, Government Budget Balance
ECB Account of MPC Governing Council Dec 09-10, 2020 Meeting
THURSDAY, 01/14
BoE’s Breeden V-briefing ‘How the BoE is supporting Climate Action" (13:00 gmt)
US weekly Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US Dec Import/Export Prices
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 01/08)
US Treasury Auctions 4- & 8-week Bills (Values not disclosed at post)
Climate, Wildfire & Air Pollution V-Event +Climate Economics (11am)
Atlanta Fed’s Bostic on Support Small Business for Inclusive & Resilient Recovery (11am)
Conversation w/Fed Chair Jerome Powell @Princeton U Bendheim Ctr (12:30pm et)
Climate Change Risk in Financial Markets: Advancing the Conversation in 2021
FedTalk 2021 Economic Outlook (noon webinar/FRB Cleveland)
Nat’l Tribal Listening Session on CRA Modernization V-Event (2pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Aussie Nov Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes
So. Korea MPC Interest Rate Decision, Dec Trade Balance
China Dec House Price Index, Consumer Confidence
UK Nov GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial/Mnftg Production, Index of Services
Eurozone Nov Trade Balance, Dec Fx Reserves
ECB’s Enria Banca d’Italia keynote-"The crisis management framework for banks in the EU"
FRIDAY, 01/15
US Dec Retail Sales
US Nov Retail Inventories
US Dec PPI/Core PPI
UK NIESR Dec GDP Tracker
NY Fed Empire State Jan Manufacturing Index
Breakfast w/Fed: COVID-19 Acceleration of Existing Trends in US Labor Markets (9am et)
US Dec Industrial/Manufacturing Production/Capacity Utilization
US Nov Business Inventories
U.M. (P) Jan Consumer Sentiment/Current Conditions/Expectations
Baker-Hughes weekly US/No.Am Oil/Total Rig Count (1pm et)
A Year Ago. China V P Liu arrived in D.C. to sign the Phase I Trade Deal
WEEKS AHEAD:
01/18/2021 Martin Luther King Jr Holiday US Markets Closed
01/20--21/2021 BoJ MPC Meeting + Preess Conference
01/21/2021 ECB MPC Meets + Press Conference
01/26--27/2021 FOMC Meets + Press Conference
02/04/2021 BoE MPC Meets
EARNINGS: (We follow only the money center banks, biggest regionals, and large overseas banks that trade on US Exchanges. We omit all other banks as outside our universe. Lower case tickers, followed by 3 question marks, means we checked but couldn’t confirm the date. Charles Schwab usually releases quarterly results on the "11th business day of January, April, July & October," but otherwise, hasn’t confirmed Monday’s entry, below.)
MONDAY, 01/11: anix, AZZ, CCL, SCHW, CMC, CNXC, fc??, KRUS. LMNR, loop???, SLP, SNX
TUESDAY, 01/12: ACI, BBCP, EXFO, KBH, ormp, OGI
WEDNESDAY, 01/13: bmra, INFO, INFY, sjr???, VOLT
THURSDAY, 01/14: apha???, BLK, DAL, FRC, PRGS, TSM
FRIDAY, 01/15: C, JPM, PNC, WFC
EVENTS: (V- =Virtual; D- =Digital)
SUNDAY, 01/10
39th IEEE Int’l V-Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE) @CES (thru 12th)
Digital Hollywood Fall Digital Experience affiliated w/CES (thru 14th)
Healthtech PepTalk Drug Discovery & Development V-Conference (thru 21st)
Solebury Trout Annual 1x1 Management Access V-Event
Gordon Research V-Seminar RNA Nanotechnology
Institute for Data Science & Big Data V-Event (thru 15th)
L.A. Market Week Hybrid Event
142nd Philly National Candy, Gift & Gourmet Show POSTPONED
Outdoor Retailer Snow V-Show (thru 03.19)
ACC CANCELED Cardiovascular Conference @Snowmass
Bass & Salt Water Fishing Expo (Raleigh NC thru 10th)
American Baseball Coaches Annual V-Convention
Wizard World (WIZD)/ComicCon (New Orleans LA)
MONDAY, 01/11
JPMorgan 39th Annual Healthcare V-Conference (thru 15th)
*EBD Group Annual Biotech V-Showcase (thru 15th)
*H.C. Wainwright BioConnect 2021 V-Conference (thru 14th)
ICR 23rd Annual V-Conference (thru 14th)
*Stephens V-Conference related to ICR
*Wolfe Research Meetings @ICR
Goldman Sachs 2021 Technology & Internet V-Conference (thru 12th)
CES V-Consumer Electronics Show (thru 14th)
*Citi hosted V-Meetings @CES 2021 (thru 14th)
*Raymond James V-Meetings @CES (thru 14th)
*IDC Consumer Predictions V-Briefing @CES
Morgan Stanley 7th Auto 2.0 V-Conference
UBS Winter Infrastructure & Energy V-Conference (thru 13th)
Needham 23rd Annual Growth V-Conference
Capital One Securties REIT V-Conference (thru 12th)
RBC Canadian Bank CEO V-Conference
Reuters Next (across 4 time zones, thru 14th)
AAS 237th Astronomical Society V-Event (think Space thru 15th)
SANS Cyber Security East Online (thru 16th)
Commerzbank AG 20th German Investment V-Seminar (thru 13th)
Citi Turkish V-Conference (thru 12th)
Semler Scientific Inc (SMLR) V-NDR w/B Riley Financial
Wal-Mart de Mexico (WMMVY) Dec Same Store Sales Expected
Zscaler (ZS) 2021 Analyst Day (7:30am pst)
TUESDAY, 01/12
JPMorgan 19th Annual Tech/Auto V-Forum @CES
Peters & Co 28th Winter Energy V-Conference (thru 13th)
Credit Suisse 2021 Aircraft Leasing V-Conference
SEMI ISS Industry Strategy V-Symposium
Stephens V-Where Banks & FinTech Collide (On surge in new bank charters)
FloCon 2021 V-Forum on Large-Scale Network Analytics (thru 15th)
NDIA Defense Systems Procurement Division V-Meeting
NMHC Housing Council Apartment Strategies/Outlook Webinar Series (thru 26th)
24th Oddo BHF V-Forum (thru 13th)
Citi Korea Analyst V-Day (thru 13th)
Nomura China Property Management Corporate V-Day (thru 13th)
Nomura Indonesia V-Corporate Day (Singapore was original plan)
Macquarie Philippines Owners Access V-Conference (thru 13th)
Citrix (CTXS) V-Summit (thru 21st)
Descartes Systems Group (DSGX) V-Marketing w/Stephens
On Semiconductor (ON) Investor call w/B Riley Financial from CES
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) special meeting to vote on acquisition of Parsley Energy (PE)
Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) Conference call w/B Riley Financial
WEDNESDAY, 01/13
CJS Securities 21st New Ideas for the New Year V-Conference
Alliance for Regenerative Medicine (ARM) Cell & Gene Therapies State of the Industry V-Briefing
Keystone V-Symposia Antibodies & Vaccines as Drugs for COVID-19 (thru 14th)
Chicago Fed’s 27th Annual Automotive Insights V-Symposium
IDC Security Services Q1 Market V-Update
NTIL Annual Industrial Transportation League Positive Train Control Webinar
CJS Securities 21st "New Ideas for the New Year" V-Conference
Berenberg Benelux & French V-Conference (thru 14th)
Exane BNP Paribas 11th Edition of SID—Spain Investors CEO V-Day (thru 14th)
Baader Helvea Swiss Equities V-Conference (thru 15th)
Citi European Utilities & Infrastructure V-Conference (thru 15th)
Credit Suisse China Renewable Energy V-Corporate Days (thru 15th)
CME Group (CME) pays its $2.50 special dividend
Cinemark Hldgs (CNK) mngmnt call w/B Riley
Semtech Corp (SMTC) small grp meeting w/B Riley Financial
NHL (Nat’l Hockey League) Short Season Starts
THURSDAY, 01/14
SAE Connect2Car @CES Digital Summit
Digital Hollywood @CES
Automotive News shift: Future of Mobility: Get Up to Speed Webinar @CES
Jefferies Software V-Bus Tour
RBC Capital Energy Transition V-Series--Exploring Hydrogen Mobility
Deutsche Bank EMEA Outlook Presentation V-Series
Octavian Seminar 2021 (thru 15th)
Citi Greater China Healthcare Corporate Day (Hybrid; Shenzhen China thru 15th)
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) V-marketing w/Strategas Grp
Samsung (SMSN) Keynotes Digital Hollywood @CES, Rumored Unveil of New Galaxy Line-up
Signet Group (SIG) Holiday Sales Update (pre-market)
FRIDAY, 01/15
Last Day to Trade January Options—includes LEAPs Sold 3 Years Ago
Raymond James Private Data Center V-Symposium
FN Platform Footwear Sourcing Digital Event (thru MARCH 16th)
ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers V-Symposium (thru 17th)
31st Society for Technology in Anesthesia Annual V-Event
All US Markets Trade Regular Hours
102nd Southern Seed Annual Meeting CANCELED
WNLA CANCELED Western Nursery & Landscape Show
America’s Cup PRADA Cup (Auckland New Zealand thru 22nd)
ConocoPhilips (COP) & Concho Resources (CXO) vote on their proposed merger
Starwood Property (STWD) V-marketing w/Strategas
FILMS OPENING where theaters have reopened: "The Marksman," w/Liam Neeson, Katheryn Winnick, Teresa Ruiz, distributed by Open Road Films (owned by Raven Capital Management). "Wrath of Man," directed by Guy Ritchie, with Niamh Algar, Jason Stratham, Josh Hartnett, Scott Eastwood, distributed by Lionsgate (LGF.A). "Don’t Tell a Soul," with Rainn Wilson, Fionn Whitehead, Jack Dylan Grazer, distributed by Lionsgagte (LGF.A) in collaboration w/Saban Films, which acquired it at the Tribeca Film Festival. "Some Kind of Heaven," documentary behind the scenes at Florida’s 55 & over community, The Villages, one of Trump’s favorite rally haunts. Opened in limited release, last week, and goes wide, this week, via Mark Cuban & Todd Wagner’s Magnolia Pictures. .
SATURDAY, 01/16
18th Review: Clinical Hematology & Oncology V-Congress EXCERPTS from EARLIER 2021 OUTLOOKS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2021 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.