What You missed LAST Week
QUARTER FAST COMING TO A CLOSE
March 11—15, 2019 Fed Chief Powell sat for an interview with CBS’ "60 Minutes," Sunday. That’s not unusual; both Bernanke & Yellen did before him but the timing seems odd to me, with Trump supposed to deliver his 2020 budget on Monday. Say this for Trump—the Federal Reserve Board has been filled more completely under his watch, then in any other time in recent years. Powell declared the Fed is independent, and doesn’t believe the president has the authority to fire him. Many though he’d say the Fed Reserve Board is determined to do more to help the average American but he never quite worked it in. Then, again, perhaps unlike his predecessors, he chooses not to stoop to what people want to hear, unless it’s something he can deliver.
China has removed a planned trip to President Trump's Mar-a-Lago Florida property, originally on Xi’s schedule for late March, around the 27th. It was removed from Xi Jinping's calendar, Fox Business reported, without attribution, to save embarrassment if it had to be removed closer to the date because a deal still hadn’t been reached. The report said Xi may still come in April but it was safer to wait until the deal was struck.
Aside from another near certain defeat for Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal with the EU, the only suspense in the UK will be whether Parliament than votes to postpone Brexit from its current March 29th exit date. Some have called for a vote on canceling Brexit altogether but that’s not about to happen, IMO. The UK will also reveal its Jan GDP, Trade Balance Industrial & Manufacturing Production and other data, this week.
Closer to home, Trump is scheduled to unveil his 2020 budget, Monday, with rumors that he’ll ask for close to $9B for his wall, in that document. If he couldn’t get an all Republican Congress to vote for $5.7B, and couldn’t get such a vote from a split Congress, either, what makes him think he’ll get $9B from that same split Congress? But Trump has trouble with reality—confusing a so-called "reality" program with the real thing, so why would a little thing like the facts of life deter him?
The data this week includes Jan Retail Sales (Mon.), Feb. CPI, (Tues.), Durable Goods Orders & Shipments, & PPI (Wed.), while Thursday promised Jan New Home Sales. Some of this data was delayed by the partial government shutdown, so a bit stale on delivery. Friday promises Feb Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, the Empire State (NY Fed) Manufacturing Index, and Jan JOLTS.
Of course the most influential item on the Economic Calendar is Quadruple Witch, Friday. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Dec 20, 2017 that it was considering rebalancing its indices not on close with the Quad Witch Expiration but, instead, rebalancing on the last business day of the rebalancing month. Alas, that was never changed. Despite all the fanfare with which news of the proposed changed date, S&P Dow Jones Indices released the 2019 Rebalancing calendar without any changes. When Quarterly Index Futures Expire, the indexes, themselves, will be adjusted on close. That’s what makes the Quadruple Expiration such a big deal.
Please note all the bigwigs speaking on Tuesday: CFTC Chairman Giancarlo, SEC Chief Clayton, FDIC Chair McWilliams, and Comptroller of the Currency Otting among the speakers at the Institute of International Bankers, Tuesday, even as Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan will be testifying at the US House Financial Services Committee, at about the many scandals the bank has been ensnared in, plus the International Futures Industry will meet here in Florida, even as the UK Parliament votes on Brexit and a delay. Were it not for the Quadruple Expiration Friday, Tuesday would be the biggest day of the week.
Earnings a skewed heavily towards retailers but none of the giant companies that have reported previously. There are a number of radio firms reporting, mostly Tuesday, and a couple of large tech companies—Broadcom, Jabil Circuits, & Oracle most specifically, all three on Thursday, along with Adobe. I noticed, Sunday, for the first time, that ELF Beauty popped up in Target stores. The struggling make-up company announced with its earnings, last week, that it will be closing all its retail stores. Makes sense, if you’ve landed Target, Forever 21, and Ulta Beauty, the latter reporting Thursday. I’ve long waited for Ulta to stumble but it hasn’t, really, yet. Sooner of later it will.
South by Southwest continues this week, the final weekend next week. Meanwhile the NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball championship—aka March Madness—kicks off with the first round starting Friday. You wouldn’t think anything could distract from a medical meeting as big as AAC (Cardiology) Scientific Sessions, starting next Saturday but March Madness can manage it. Meanwhile, Energy traders will want to tune in to CERA Week, which starts Monday. Also Monday, Deutsche Bank’s 27th Media, Internet & Telecom Conference, and Cowen’s 39th Annual Boston Health Care Conference—the preferred spelling at Cowen, who’ll be competing with Barclays Global Healthcare Conference in Miami Beach.
Sunday, the Mortgage Bankers Association opened its Mid-Winter Housing Finance Conference, in Colorado, while Bank Innovation IGNITE19 starts Monday, in Seattle. Conversational Interaction Conference, also starting Monday, is about Connecting Humans & Machines, with Alexa the clear front runner, to day. Meanwhile, Healthtech’s Molecular Medicine Tri-conference kicked off Sunday, in San Francisco, one of the biggest healthcare conferences of the year because of the several sub-conferences, including Microbiome-based Precision Medicine, and Cell-Based Cancer Immunotherapy, which reminded me that the real headliner on "60 Minutes" Sunday was not Powell but the doctors who explained how they used altered HIV viruses to insert a missing gene in patients suffering from sickle cell anemia. WOW!!!
Other Events of note include Bk of America Merrill Lynch’s Consumer & Retail Technology Conference, Tuesday, RBC Capital’s Financial Institution’s Conference, the same day, and Susquehanna’s SEMI & Technology Conference, also the same day and like RBC’s, in New York. CanaccordGenuity’s Musculoskeletal Conference, in Las Vegas, starting Tuesday, capitalizes on AAOS—Orthopaedic Surgeons meeting there, starting the same day. Usually, half a dozen orthopaedic device companies host analyst meetings at ortho conferences but not this year—for whatever reason. I checked about 8 device companies and not one scheduled an analyst meeting during the conference. Can’t tell you why.
Thursday is the next big meeting day, with JPMorgan hosting Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum, also in Las Vegas, while Piper Jaffray will host a Security Symposium the same day, in Chicago, and Berenberg Design Software, in NY, even as Jefferies is hosting "Brands Still Matter (BSM)" in NY, JPMorgan its 7th Large Bank 1-on-1, even as Stephens hikes to the San Francisco, the same day, for its 11th West Coast 1-on-1, with 20 companies that range from EGHT, to ANDE, CSGP, to DPZ, FNF, FIVN, GLUU, HOMB, TREE, LMNR, LAD, NEWR, PKG, WTTR, SUM, SVMC, the coast the only thread that ties them together. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, will be in London for European Chemicals. And if GE hasn't done enough to discourage investors, year-to-date, it’s hosting an Outlook call, with its leadership team, Thursday morning.
The Bk of Japan holds a Monetary Policy Meeting, that will end in the wee hours of Friday, east coast time. I consider it such a hopeless case, I simply don’t see what the BoJ could possibly say or do that will pull that country of its long-standing funk, especially when Europe is on pins & needles about Brexit and the US & China are struggling towards a lasting trade truce, with China’s economy clearly weakening. What was stunning, however, last week, was the big pop in the US dollar, and the way the financials finagled their way out of losses, Friday, to close with a smidgen of gains. Of course, with Boeing sure to be under pressure, to start the week, after another 737 plane crash, any follow through by the financials may not be enough to force the indices into positive territory. Then, with a Quadruple Expiration at the end of the week, much of what happens to stocks, this week, may have little to do with actual corporate activity. But it might pay to bear in mind that the number of companies appearing at conferences, with the quarter fast coming to a close means, suggests that earnings warnings & upside statements could arrive in a flood. So, unless you’re absolutely certain about the earnings about to arrive, lightening up may be the best course of action, for now.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY 03/10
Make sure your clocks were turned ahead, for switch to daylight savings time
FOMC Chief Powell on "60 Minutes" (CBS 7pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et
China Feb New Yuan Loans, Direct Foreign Investment
Eurogroup Meetings (Brexit on their minds? 03/11 local time)
MONDAY, 03/11
US Jan Retail Sales (8:30am et)
US Dec Business Inventories
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, and $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Trump to Unveil is 2020 Budget (Or will he? Pres. tend to delay)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
France 18Q4 non-Farm Payrolls
UK Jan NIESR GDP, Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Index of Services, Construction Output
EU FinMins Meet (Brexit on their minds?)
Central Bankers from EU, Netherlands, Sweden, Australia, Mexico & Chile speak at Swiss Financial Conference (Basel thru13th)
BoE Minutes of 02/26 MPC Meeting (03/12 local time)
TUESDAY, 03/12
UK Parliament 2nd Vote on PM May’s Brexit Deal with EU + Can Vote to delay Brexit
US Feb CPI (8:30am et)
US Real & Average Hourly & Weekly Earnings
CFTC Chair J. C. Giancarlo fireside chart @ IIB-Institute of International Bankers Annual Conference (9:30am et Washington DC thru 13th)
SEC Chief Jay Clayton fireside chat at IIB (10:30am et)
FIA 44th Annual Int’l Futures Industry Conference (Boca Raton FL thru 13th)
Wells Fargo (WFC) CEO Tim Sloan testifies @ US House FinServices Cmte on scandals
Comptroller of the Currency J. Otting speaks @ IIB (2pm et)
FDIC Chair J McWilliams speaks @ IIB (3pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
Japan Feb Corporate Goods Price Index, & PPI, Jan Core Machinery Orders
German Feb Wholesale Price Index
Italy Qtrly Unemployment
Eurozone Jan Industrial Production
UK Annual Budget Release + Spring Forecast Statement from FinMin Hammond
WEDNESDAY, 03/13
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Canada Teranet/National Bank Feb Home Price Index
US Jan Durable Goods Orders/Shipments (8:30am et)
US Feb PPI—Final Demand
US 18Q4 eCommerce (Consumer) Sales
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et; w/e 03/08)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
China Feb Industrial Production, Jan Fixed Asset & Property Investment, Retail Sales, Jobless Rate
UK RICS Feb House Price Balance
OPEC Monthly Report
THURSDAY, 03/14
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Feb Import/Export Prices (8:30am et)
US Jan New Home Sales (10am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
BoC Dpty Gov. Wilkins on "Risks to global growth in a time when leverage & protectionist sentiment are running high" (Vancouver)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (value not announced at time of post)
Fed Reserve weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
BoJ MPC Rate & QE Decisions, then Press Conference (03/15 local time)
BoJ Chief Kuroda also speaks @ B20 Tokyo Summit (03/15 local time)
EU 25 Feb New Car Registrations
IEA Monthly Report
Eurozone Feb CPI
FRIDAY, 03/15
Quadruple Witch—Stocks & Index Options & Futures Expire (S&P (P) Rebalance note)
Empire State Mar Manufacturing Index (8:30am et)
US Feb Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et—polar vortex impact?)
U.M. (P) Mar Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
US Jan JOLTS (Job Openings & Turnover)
Baker-Hughes US/North America weekly Rig Count (1pm et; w/e 03/08)
US TICS (4pm et)
St. Patrick’s Day usually bullish for equities but it’s not a trading day this year
SATURDAY, 03/16
German Feb WPI
WEEKS AHEAD: 03/19 FOMC 2-day Meeting Starts
NAHB Feb. Housing Market Index Release
03/20 FOMC Meeting Statement
FOMC Members’ Updated Forecasts
FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
03/21 BoE MPC Meets
SNB (Swiss) MPC Meets
Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
03/26 RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
03/28 Bk of Mexico MPC Meets
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre-Market from after market reports. We cover only the major money center banks and largest regionals, others omitted. "???" after a ticker means we saw it listed as a reporter in multiple places but couldn’t confirm the date—many times, of late, because we refuse to permit cookies at every site we visit—and it shouldn’t be required to visit IR sites, at all. If a company didn’t confirm by noon, Thursday, March 7th, it isn’t included. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless it’s integral to the ticker. In most cases, it isn’t. Emboldened stocks are not meant as recommendations, or even stocks we’re personally interested in—they’re simply those results to which we think the market and/or media will pay most attention. Often, it simply means one sector is so dominant, it should be highlighted.)
MONDAY, 03/11: ADT, ASNA, BKEP, CASY, CNTY, CCXI, JVA, DRNA, FANH, KALA, MG, PETQ, PFNX, SFIX TEDU, VHI, WAGE???
TUESDAY, 03/12: APEI, PETX, BPI, CLNE, CLW, COHU, CVGI, CVRS, DFRG, DKS, EVC???, EVRI, GV, HROW, HCHC, IPI, KEYW, MOMO, NTRA, NOG, OSTK, PEIX, TEUM, PTGX, QHC, RC, RFIL, SGA, SALM, SUNW, SNCR, SYBX, TISI, TST, TSQ, VSTM, WSM????, WTT, ZAGG, ZTO
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WEDNESDAY, 03/13: ACTG, APYX, BBW, CHU, CBK, DQ, EXPR, FPI, GLMD, HHS, LGL, MLNT, MDB, NRE, SFS, SMRT, SGRY, SYNC, TLRD, TRVN, TPCO, VRA, ZDGE
THURSDAY, 03/14: ACHV, AGRO, ADBE, AQST, ATHX, AVDL, AXSM, BDSI, BIOS, AVGO, DG, DS, MRAM, XONE, GCO, HNGR, HSDT, HIBB???, HTHT, INAP, JBL, KNOP, NGS, NDLS, ORCL, PCTI, PDLI, PVTL, EYPT, QRHC, RMED, RDNT, RESN, RNET, REDU, RMTI, SND, SRLP, TLYS, ULTA, VNRX, ZUMZ
FRIDAY, 03/15: BKE, CTRN, DPLO, FF, KIRK
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 03/10
26th Miami Breast Cancer Conference (Miami Beach FL)
SCALE 17x Linux Expo (Pasadena CA)
ISSWSH: Int’l Society for Women’s Sexual Health (Atlanta GA)
Texas Instruments (TXN) T3IC Teachers Teaching with Technology (Baltimore MD)
Geneva Motor Show (Geneva Suisse thru 17th) b
SXSW South by Southwest Music, Film, Interactive Festival (Austin TX thru 17th)
STARTING SUNDAY, 03/10
SCOPE Supply Chain Summit (Atlanta thru 12th)
MBA (Mortgage Bankers America) Mid-Winter Housing Finance Conference (Avon CO thru 13th)
Healthtech Molecular Medicine Tri-Conference w/Genomics and Cell Analysis, Microbiome-based Precision Medicine, Cell-Based Cancer Immunotherapy (San Francisco CA thru 15th)
IBM (IBM) SHARE (Phoenix AZ thru 15th)
MONDAY, 03/11
Deutsche Bank 27th Media, Internet & Telecom Conference (Palm Beach FL thru 13th)
IHS Markit CERA (Energy) Week (Houston TX thru 15th)
Cowen 39th Annual Health Care Conference (Boston thru 13th)
Bank Innovation IGNITE19 (Seattle WA thru 12th)
Nomura ASEAN Corporate Day (NY thru 12th)
Conversational Interaction Conference—Connecting Humans & Machines (San Jose thru 12th)
GAMA Game Manufacturers Trade Show+Power Retail Awards (Reno NV thru 15th)
Deutsche Bank dbAccess Australia Corporate Day (London thru 12th)
Deutsche Bank dbAccess 5th Japan Corporate Day (Hong Kong thru 13th)
JPMorgan Macro Quantitative Conference (Hong Kong)
JPMorgan Australia REIT Forum (Singapore)
Citi Global IT Services & Software India Tour (Multiple Indian Cities thru 13th)
Citi China Materials & Mining Tour (Multiple Cities thru 15th)
Ingram Micro (IM) Cloud X Summit (San Diego CA thru 13th)
TUESDAY, 03/12
BAML 2019 Consumer & Retail Technology Conference (NY thru 13th)
Barclays Global Healthcare Conference (Miami Beach FL thru 14th)
RBC Capital Financial Institutions Conference (NY thru 13th)
Susquehanna Financial Group 8th SEMI & Technology Conference (NY)
CanaccordGenuity Musculoskeletal Conference (Las Vegas NV)
AAOS Orthopaedic Surgeons Annual Meeting (Las Vegas thru 16th)
Stephens West Coast Bank 1-1 Conference (Portland OR to San Francisco thru 14th)
RV Industry Ass’n RVX-The RV Experience (Salt Lake City UT thru 14th)
Midwest Poultry Federation Convention (Minneapolis MN thru 14th)
BAML Disruptive Technology Conference (London)
Image Sensors Europe (London thru 14th)
MIPIM 30th Global Property Congress (Cannes FR thru 15th)
BAML 2019 AsiaPacific Telecom, Media & Technology Conference (Taipei thru 13th)
IDS 37th Annual Dental Show (Cologne Germany thru 16th)
Nomura Internet & Education Corporate Day (Hong Kong thru 13th)
IGA iGaming Asia Congress+Mobile Gaming & Social Casino Asia (Macau thru 14th)
JPMorgan Australia REIT Forum (Hong Kong thru 13th)
AsianInvestor 6th Insurance Investment Forum (Hong Kong)
3rd Autonomous Vehicles Asia (Singapore thru 13th)
Wells Fagro (WFC) CEO Tim Sloan testifying at US House FinServices Cmte on scandals
YUM China (YUMC) Investor Day (Shanghai China thru 13th)
WEDNESDAY, 03/13
Citi Latin America Conference (NY thru 14th)
William Blair Technology 1-on-1 Conference
AAHPM & HPNA Hospice & Palliative Care Annual Assembly (Orlando thru 16th)
SSA Self-Storage Ass’n Spring Conference/Trade Show (Nat’l Harbor MD thru 15th)
99th Motorhome-Family Coach Ass’n Convention & RV Expo (Perry GA thru16th)
Credit Suisse HOLT Conference (London)
JPMorgan Global Markets Conference (Paris FR thru 15th)
CLSA 16th ASEAN Forum (Bangkok Thailand thru 15th)
American Express Company (AXP) Investor Day (9am et—12:30pm)
IBM (IBM) THINK Gov2019 (Washington DC thru 14th)
THURSDAY, 03/14
JPMorgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Mngmnt Access Forum (Las Vegas thru 15th)
Piper Jaffray Security Symposium (Chicago)
Berenberg Design Software Conference USA (New York)
Jefferies Brands Still Matter (BSM) Conference (NY thru 15th)
JPMorgan 7th Large Bank 1-on-1 Forum (NY)
Stephens 11th West Coast 1x1 Conference (San Francisco)
Goldman Sachs 8th Annual European Chemicals (CEO) Conference (London thru 15th)
ASTRO Multidisciplinary Thoracic Cancers Symposium (San Diego thru 16th)
Berenberg Benelux Conference (London)
3rd NextGen Immuno-Oncology Congress (London thru 15th)
ESMO 7th ICHNO Head & Neck Cancer Symposium (Barcelona Spain thru 16th)
JPMorgan Macro Quantitative Conference (Tokyo)
JPMorgan Australia REIT Forum (Tokyo)
Citi ASEAN Top Picks Corporate Day (Kuala Lumpur)
Cith Taiwan Corporate Day (Singapore)
Credit Suisse Let’s Talk About Ethnic Diversity (London)
iHeart Radio Music Awards (FOX [FOXA] TV 8pm )
GE (GE) Outlook Leadership Team Call (8:30am edt)
Tesla Motors (TSLA) to unveil the Model Y 8pm pacific time)
FRIDAY, 03/15
March Madness (NCAA Basketball tournament) 1st Round (thru 17th)
Citi Taiwan Corporate Day (Hong Kong)
SXSW South by Southwest Arts Final Weekend (Austin TX thru 17th)
FILMS OPENING: Bear in Mind, these movies will be up against "Captain Marvel," which opened last week. "Wonder Park," an animated film with voices of Brianna Denski, Jennifer Garner, Ken Hudson, Kenan Thompson, John Oliver, from Ilion Animation Studios & Nickelodeon Movies distributed by Paramount (VIA). "Five Feet Apart," with Haley Lu Richardson, Cole Sprouse, Claire Fortani, Moises Arias, two teens dying of cancer story that sounds a lot like a movie of 5 years ago, "The Fault in Our Stars," from a book by John Green, a genre referred to as "Terminal Romance." This one from CBS (CBS) Films . "The Hummingbird Project," with Jesse Eisenberg, Alexander Skarsgard, Salma Hayek, about a pair of high-frequency traders up against their old boss to make millions on a fiber-optic deal, distributed by The Orchard, in the US, in Canada by Elevation Pictures. "The Mustang," with Connie Britton, Josh Stewart, Bruce Dern, a violent convict given the chance to train wild mustangs as part of a rehabilitation therapy program via Canal +, nursed by Sundance Labs. "The Aftermath," with Alexander Skarsgard, Keira Knightley, Jason Clark, from Fox Searchlight Pictures (FOXA). "Captive State," with Vera Farmiga, Machine Gun Kelly KiKi Layne, John Goodman, sci-fi futuristic tale, via DreamWorks & Amblin Partners, distributed by Focus Features (CMCSA). "Finding Steve McQueen," is based on the improbable but true story of a 1972 heist executed by a crew from Youngstown OH, who attempted to steal $30m in illegal and undisclosed contributions to Richard Nixon. The gang succeeded in stealing $9m from United California Bank. Directed by Mark Steven(Ghostrider), with Rachel Taylor, Forest Whitaker, Lilly Rabe, William Fichtner, the story focuses on one of the biggest manhunts in FBI history, distributed by Momentum Pictures.
SATURDAY, 03/16
68th AAC19 (Cardiology) Scientific Sessions (New Orleans LA thru 18th)
21st Annual Pain Management Symposium (San Diego CA thru 20th)
16th Annual Dialysis Conference (Dallas TX thru 19th) EARLIER 2019 OUTLOOK EXCERPTS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2019 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.