What You missed LAST Week
STILL A CHANCE of THE BOTTOM FALLING OUT
August 12—16, 2019 How late are we into summer? Public schools reopen Monday in the South—including in Florida, Texas, and many other Southern states. From here until late October, markets have, traditionally, had trouble keeping the bulls happy. And it doesn’t help when a President is bashing his Central Bank, fanning the flames of racism, and bailing out farmers but none of the other industries destroyed by the trade war he started and nurtures. Is it any wonder gold has broken out?
The Economic Calendar is a bit light, with US July CPI out Tuesday, July Retail Sales on Thursday, then Housing Starts & Building Permits for July on Friday. And if that weren’t enough, Thursday is the 15th, and a potential deadline for many hedge funds redemption requests, if investors want their money back at the end of the third quarter—or even, by the end of the year, depending on the rules of any given hedge fund.
Otherwise, most of the data on the Economic Calendar is more sentiment than actual, verifiable data, whether NFIB, a small business Optimism Index, NAHB’s Housing Market Index, or U.M.’s preliminary August Consumer Sentiment. The outliers are on Thursday—Q2 Productivity & Costs, July Industrial Production/ Capacity Utilization, and June Business Inventories at Manufacturers, Wholesalers and Retailers. Growth in Productivity has been the missing link that’s kept companies hiring more workers. But at least there’s something to look forward to, beyond Central Bank meetings—the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, still more than a week away, starting the 22nd, but a place at which plenty of Central Bankers are likely to be speakers—if past is prologue, at any rate. The actual Agenda won’t be released until after the event has started. Still, tune into Bloomberg, NY Times, Wall Street Journal, and CNBC for rumored invitees and rumored scheduling, since one can only attend if invited and the K.C. Fed keeps a tight lid on its plans, in an effort to keep the event a significant contribution to Economic Theory rather than another media circus like Allen & company’s Annual Media event.
The Earnings Calendar is still flush with the volume of expected reports but significant for just a handful of expected releases. Wednesday promises Agilent, Cisco Systems, and Macy’s. Thursday, Applied Materials, JCPenney, nVidia, Tapestry (formerly known as Coach), and Walmart. Friday brings Deere and, I assure you, $28B in payments to farmers from the US Government, in reparation for Trump’s Trade War, isn’t reason enough for said farmers to order new heavy equipment—especially when fields were flooded during optimal planting weeks. Whatever Applied Materials reports, Citi’s upcoming Pan-Asia Semiconductor Trip will round out the outlook. Citi is taking clients to visit Taiwan Semiconductor, Mediatek, Novatek, ASEH, Chipbond, Vanguard, Unimiron, Kinsus, ZDT, GWC, Win Semi, in Taipei. From there, on the 13th visits Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, LG Display, Wonik IPS, SK Materials, Soulbrain. On the 14th, in Tokyo, visiting Tokyo electron, HOYA, DISCO, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Sony, Renasas Electronics, Advantest, SUMCO. The 16th was TBA but probably a travel day home.
If you do a quick scan of the Event Calendar below, you’ll see quite a few I-bank names popping up again—confirming the fact that most of the analysts—except those covering retail, apparel & shoes—have started to move on. Even then, MAGIC starts this week, along with something, now, called NY Now, which was previously the New York International Gift Fair, often appearing as NYIGF, dropped in favor of NY NOW. Still it’s a table top, gift ware & Housewares show at its heart, and includes Ex*Tracts for scents that show up in perfumes, candles, and even detergents. Accompanying NY NOW & Las Vegas located MAGIC are a slug of affiliated shows, conferences, and expos, that can fill any analyst’s calendar. Off-price is getting a head start on the other MAGIC-related shows, opening a day in advance of any other. And don’t bother looking for World Shoe, though NSRA for Shore Retailers and FN Platform still meet at MAGIC but the new owner doesn’t use World Shoe or, even MAGIC, at this point. But find me a retailer or manufacturer attending and you’ll find a business person who still refers to what’s going on in Las Vegas as MAGIC.
But it’s the I-bank events that bear watching, since there’s a mini-flurry this week that should be noted. The biggest is EnerCom’s The Oil & Gas Conference, running the 11th through 14th. All you might want to know about the Denver even is here. KeyBanc is hosting a Technology Leadership Forum, started Sunday, in Vail Colorado, and transitioning to using initials—KBCM-for KeyBanc Capital Markets—in case you encounter that set of initials. BTIG is hosting Biotechnology on Monday, when Cowen hosts its 3rd Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit, and Wells Fargo its Technology Services Forum, in Newport, R.I. Gurney’s Newport Resort is reason enough to attend the Wells event.
On Tuesday, JPMorgan is hosting an Auto Conference, in New York—a city, ironically, starting to do its best to ban autos from mid-town (Makes me wonder why Bloomberg didn’t think of that—or fining cars entering or driving through Manhattan.). SVB Leerink—the new name for Silicon Valley’s division that bought out Leerink Partners, is hosting a bus tour through the "Heart of Healthcare Facilities," in Nashville TN. Wedbush is hosting PacGrown Healthcare, while Wolfe Research is setting up at EnerCom and hosting an E&P Summit with attendees and clients who’ll already be in Denver, anyway. Susquehanna is hosting Energy & Industrials, in NY, and D.A. Davidson a West Coast Bank Tour, the details for which I’ll be happy to send to anyone who needs them. Raymond James is hosting Park City Telecom Summit, in Utah, while Goldman Sachs is hosting some form of Power, Utilities, MLPs & Pipelines, it would appear from the 3 confirmed attendees we found—fewer than the subsectors mentioned in the event’s name.
Wednesday, Bk of America Merrill Lynch is hosting an A.I. Conference, with many private companies speaking. Citi is hosting a 1x1 for Midstream/Energy Infrastructure, and Raymond James Aspen Energy Summit, in Aspen, as the name implies but could well have invited many of the EnerCom attendees. The Heikkinen Energy Conference is new to us but on Schlumberger’s IR schedule. I’d also take not of GMA—the Grocery Manufacturer Ass’n--Leadership Forum, also starting Wednesday, given how many farmers elected to ski planting this past spring. Also, note the Hotel Data Conference hosted by Hotel News & STR—the latter formerly Smith Travel Research. So it’s said, Intellisight from the CEA Society of Minnesota is what used to be InvestMN. It remains about companies with headquarters campuses in Minnesota, so I don’t’ know why the change but change it did.
Thursday, Oppenheimer is hosting Midwest Corporate Access Day, even as Canadian Security Traders Association are attending their 26th conference, in Quebec. Friday, Jefferies hosts Technology Disruption Across Consumer Summit, in Hong Kong but that’s all we’ve got on that one.
So, as the Earnings Calendar slithers towards retailers dominating the schedule, Back to School shopping is over for the first wave, in the south, and will take a short hiatus until kids in schools farther north stare down Labor Day weekend. Before that we’ll have the focus switch to Jackson Hole but, until then, the market is the star of the show—and that show is getting too scary for many retail investors, and those professionals looking to protect their Year-to-Date gains. That’s often a combination that causes funds to flow out of stocks—a condition that may well endure until the latter half of October. Be forewarned.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 08/11
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
China July Foreign Direct Investment
Russia Q2 GDP
India Jul CPI, Jun Industrial & Manufacturing Production
MONDAY, 08/12
Select Southern US 2019—2020 School Years Begin
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Japan Jul Domestic Corporate Price Index, Tertiary Index, Machine Tool Orders
Eurozone, Germany, Spain, Italy Jul WPI, CPI, HICP
UK Jun ILO Unemployment Rate/Change/Avg Earnings, Jul Jobless Claims/Change
German Aug ZEW Survey of Current Situation/Expectations
Eurozone Aug. ZEW Economic Survey
TUESDAY, 08/13
NFIB Aug Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
OPEC Monthly Oil Report
US July CPI/Core CPI (8:30am et)
IRS Nationwide Tax Forum (Orlando FL thru 15th)
US Treasury Auctions $28B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
China Jul Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Surveyed Jobless Claims/Unemployment Rate, Property Investment
Germany Q2 GDP
UK Jul CPI, CPIH, Retail Price Index, FPI, PPI, Jun House Price Index
China New Loan Growth, Social Financing
Eurozone Q2 Unemployment, GDP, Jun Industrial Production
WEDNESDAY, 08/14
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
US July Import/Export Prices/Price Index
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et; w/e 08/09)
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
China Jul New Home Sales/Prices
Japan Jul Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Rate Decision
UK Jul Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales (Helped early in month from Wimbledon visitors)
Eurozone Jul Total Reserve Assets
THURSDAY, 08/15
Heads up! Today’s a potential Q3 deadline for hedge fund redemption requests
Canada ADP July Payroll Estimate
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims (8:30am et)
Philly Fed Aug. Business Outlook Survey
US July Retail Sales
NY Fed/Empire State Aug. Manufacturing Survey
US Q2 Productivity & Costs
US July Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et)
US Jun Business Inventories at Manufacturers, Wholesalers, Retailers (10am et)
NAHB Aug Housing Market Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 08/09)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement
Bank of Mexico MPC Interest Rate Decision
US June TICS (4pm et)
US Fed Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Hong Kong Q2 GDP (Strike impact?)
Eurozone Jun Trade Balance
FRIDAY, 08/16
US July Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
US (Adv) Quarterly Services Report (10am et)
U.M. Prelim. Aug. Consumer Sentiment
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
FRB Releases Assets & Liabilities of US Commercial Banks (4:15pm et)
WEEKS AHEAD: 08/22—24 K.C. Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
09/04---05 Fed’s Evans opens "Forging a New Path for No.Am. Trade: The Auto Sector" @FRB Chicago’s Detroit Brand (3:15pm edt )
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre- from post-market releases. We cover only the major money center banks, large foreign banks traded in the US, and the largest regionals. We ignore "the" in a company name unless it’s integral to the ticker—it rarely is. "???" after a ticker means we’ve seen it on many competing Earnings Calendars but couldn’t confirm the date ourselves. Any company that didn’t confirm by Thursday, 08/08, at noon, is not included. We often check the IR site for every company supposed to report but now, frequently, hit a wall because we won’t permission cookies. In those instances, we’re guided by 3rd parties who have proven reliable in the past but could be wrong on any given ticker. Emboldened tickers are those we expect the Street and/or Media to focus on most, or those we believe will most impact a sector or stocks, altogether. It’s subjective, and you’re free to disagree. As financials have largely finished, we highlight an array of stocks to point out the variety of sectors reporting. This week, media & hospitality stands out.)
MONDAY, 08/12: APTX, BIOC, BE, BSQR, CRNT, CWCO, EOLS, EYEN, DAVE, FPAY, GNLN, ICCC, INSE, JASN, LRAD, NFE, NINE, OHAI, OPTN, PLNR, PANL, FENG, POLA, FDCM, RMBL, SMTA, SYY, TME, TRWH, VCTR, XSPA, YTEN
TUESDAY, 08/13: AEY, AAP, AMS, APDN, ARKR, AVYA, BEST, BCLI, EAT, CDK, KOOL, CYD, CPLG, CVET, CVV, CYCC, CTEK, DRIO, FYAI, ECOR, ESTA, EVOL, FTEK, GDS, GECC, HUYA, IIVI, IDXG, IZEA, JD, LAZY, MDWD, MMAC, MYGN, OTEL, PSN, PFMT, PSNL, PHAS, PHUN, PRPL, METC, REED, RIBT, RUBY, SCON, SYNL, TLRY, UROV, VBLT, VTSI, VNRX, WTT, YY
WEDNESDAY, 08/14: TURN, ACIU, A, ALT, RKDA, ATAI, LIFE, AEYE, BTN, BKYI, BASI, BLIN,, CACI, CXDC, CSCO, CTRA, CPIX, DQ, DARE, SAUC, ENSV, GEVO, GVP, HROW, HOLI, HDSN, HYRE, IPWR, IDEX, INFU, LFVN, LMB, LINC, LK, M, MICT, MSON, OCX, ONTX, PFGC, QRHC, SRAX, sorl???, SPTN, SLGG, SPCB, USIO, VIPS, WYY, YMAB, YGYI, ZSAN
THURSDAY, 08/15: YI, BABA, ARAY, AMAT, BGG, CSIQ, GLOB, IHRT, JCP, NVDA, REDU, WISA, TPR, VIAV, VJET, WMT, ZTO
FRIDAY, 08/16: JG, DE, GHG, NAT
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 08/11
ACC/SCAI Premier International Cardiology (D.C.)
New York NOW Int’l Gift Show (NY thru 14th)
Gourmet Housewares Show @NY NOW (NY thru 14th)
EX*Tracts @New York NOW (NY thru 14th)
Off-Price Apparel Show @MAGIC (Las Vegas NV thru 13th)
AOSS/AAOS: Am. Orthopedic Society for Sports Medicine Annual (Chicago IL)
AAGL Gynecologic Surgical Fellows Surgery Boot Camp (Phoenix, AZ)
STARTING SUNDAY, 08/11
EnerCom The Oil & Gas Annual Conference (Denver CO thru 14th)
KeyBanc Capital Technology Leadership Forum (Vail CO thru 13th)
SPIE Optics + Photonics Conference/Expo (San Diego CA thru 15th)
APCO Public Safety Communications Annual Conference (Baltimore MD thru 14th)
NSRA Nat’l Show Retailers Ass’n Education Conference @MAGIC (Las Vegas)
Affiliate Summit (NY thru 13th)
Xchange 2019 (Denver CO thru 13th)
Usenix + Usenix Security Symposium (Santa Clara CA thru 16th)
World Congress of Surgery (Krakow Poland thru 15th)
20th Teen Choice Awards (FOX TV {FOXA})
MONDAY, 08/12
BTIG Biotechnology Conference (NY)
Cowen & Co 3rd Annual Communications Infrastructure Summit (Boulder CO thru 13th)
Wells Faro Technology Services Forum (Newport RI thru 13th)
World Shoe & Accessories Marketplace @MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 14th)
FN [Footwear News] Platform @MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 14th)
PGA (Professional Golf) Fashion & Demo Experience @MAGIC (Las Vegas thru 14th)
Healthtech BioProcessing Summit (Boston MA thru 16th)
RV Aftermarket Executive Conference (Denver thru 14th)
ISACA GRC-Governance Risk & Control Mngmnt Conference (Ft Lauderdale FL thru 14th)
Gartner [IT] Catalyst Conference (San Diego thru 15th)
RISI Pulp Latin American Conference (Sao Paulo Brazil thru 14th)
Citi Pan-Asia Semiconductor Trip (Multple Asian cities & Countries thru 16th)
Microsoft (MSFT) Visual Studio Live (HQ Redmond WA thru 19th)
TUESDAY, 08/13
JPMorgan Auto Conference (NY thru 14th)
SVB Leerink Heart of Healthcare Facilities Bus Tour (Nashville TN)
Wedbush PacGrow Healthcare Conference (NY thru 14th)
Wolfe Research E&P Summit (@EnerCom Denver thru 15th)
SIG Energy & Industrials Conference (NY)
Raymond James Park City Telecom Summit (Park City UT thru 15th)
Goldman Sachs Power, Utilities, MLPs & Pipelines Conference (NY)
D.A.Davidson West Coast Bank Tour (Seattle to Los Angeles thru 14th)
International Fashion Fabric + PrintSource (NY thru 14th)
8th Intellisight from the CEA Society of Minnesota (Minneapolis thru 14th)
AGE: AustralAsian Gaming Expo (Sydney Australia thru 15th)
LaBACE LatAm Business Aviation Conference/Expo (Sao Paulo thru15th)
Paper & Packaging 6th Commercial Strategy Forum (Santiago Chile)
WEDNESDAY, 08/14
Bk of America Merrill Lynch A.I. Conference (NY)
Citi Midstream/Energy Infrastructure 1:1 Conference (Las Vegas thru 15th)
Raymond James Aspen Energy Summit (Aspen CO thru 15th)
Heikkinen Energy Conference (Houston TX)
GMA (Grocery Manufacturer Ass’n) Leadership Forum (Colorado Springs CO thru 18th)
Hotel Data Conference (Nashville TN thru 16th)
SIS Int’l Emerging Spine Intervention Society Annual Meeting (NY thru 17th)
100th Int’l FMCA Motorhone/Coach & RV Convention/Expo (Minor ND thru 17th)
Mexican InfoComm (Mexico City thru 16th)
Wikimania (Stockholm Sweden thru 18th)
Credit Suisse 4th Indonesia Conference (Singapore thru 15th)
Santander 20th Annual Brazil Investor Conference (Sao Paulo)
Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance (Pebble Beach CA thru 18th)
THURSDAY, 08/15
Oppenheimer Midwest Corporate Access Day (Chicago)
26th Canadian Security Traders Ass’n Conference (Quebec Canada thru 18th)
26th Napa Pain Conference (Napa Valley CA thru 18th)
International Textile Expo (Nashville thru 16th)
Sign Business, Printwear, Graphics & Awards Show (Long Beach CA thru 17th)
Annual Int’l Neurogastroenterology & Motility Meeting (Chicago thru 18th)
Nordstronm (JWN) NY Mass hiring Event to staff coming NY Flagship to open 10/24 (thru 17th)
FRIDAY, 08/16
Jefferies Technology Disruption Across Consumer Summit (Hong Kong)
FILMS OPENING: "The Angry Birds Move 2," with voices of Jason Sudeikos, Josh Gad, Leslie Jones, Bill Hader, based on the Rovio Video Game, Awkwafina, Sterling K. Brown, Tiffany Haddish, Peter Drinklage, from Sony Pictures (SNE) Animation. "Good Boys," with Jacob Tremblay, Molly Gordon, Lina Renna, via Universal Pictures (CMCSA). "47 Meters Down: Uncaged," with Nia Long, Sistine Rose Stallone, John Corbett, and a pod of particularly vicious sharks, a sequel to a 2017 film, distributed by Entertainment Studios (founded by Byron Allen). "Blinded by the Light," a kid in PM Thatcher’s UK finds his own voice through the Boss’ music, based on the life of journalist Sarfraz Manzoor, who co-wrote the script. Starring Viveik Kalra, Kulwinder Ghir, Mera Ganatra, distributed by Warner Bros (T). "Where’d You Go Bernadette," with Cate Blanchett, Kristen Wiig, Judy Greer, Laurence Fishburne, directed by Richard Linklater, based on the best-selling book by the same name, from Annapurna Pictures, who’s distributing, after 5 other dates were announced and pushed out. "Awake," directed by Aleksandr Chernyaev, and starring Jonathan Rhys Meyers, Francesca Eastwood, William Fortsythe, mentioned only because there was a film by the same name in 2007, even as NFLX is currently producing another film, a comedy by the same name, starring Gina Rodriquez. Therefore, know what you’re buying tickets to see, before paying for them.
SATURDAY, 08/17
20th Annual Intensive Review of Cardiology (Cleveland OH thru 21st)
Nationwide Marketing Group Rent Direct PRIMETIME (New Orleans LA thru 20th) EARLIER 2019 OUTLOOK EXCERPTS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2019 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.