What You missed LAST Week
EARNINGS WARNINGS COULD SUPPORT THE BEARS
October 07—11, 2019 Gotta give a hand to the Bulls, who pulled the averages out of the abyss—perhaps because both Trump & Kudlow expressed optimism about this week’s trade talks with the Chinese, in D.C. Trump, on the other hand, just doesn’t get what being the President of the United States means. After US House Impeachment proceedings were initiated, he invited the Chinese to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, also, claiming it’s about corruption, wherever it’s found. Coming from a President many find corrupt, himself, that sounded rich. But, like Michael Jackson, who just couldn’t understand why anyone would object to him sleeping with little boys, Trump just doesn’t ‘get’ what how the President of the United States is supposed to conduct himself. And that’s a shame for the U.S.
Even with PPI, CPI, and JOLTS on the Economic Calendar this week, 2 other items stand out more. First, the Jewish High Holy Day of Yom Kippur, which starts at sundown on Tuesday, the 8th, and runs until sundown on Wednesday, the 9th. Even the most casual of Jews acknowledge Yom Kippur—the Day of Atonement—in some way, even if it’s merely lighting memorial candles for lost, close relatives. You won’t find most Jews in supermarkets, restaurants, or trading on Wednesday, until after Sundown.
The second item that stands out on the Economic Calendar, is the number of Central Bankers speaking this week. Fed Chairman Powell & K.C. George President George, obviously, weren’t cognizant of the Jewish Holiday when scheduling the Fed Listens event in Kansas City, Wednesday, which the two will co-host. Then, again, only the Jackson Hole Economic Summit can rival the list of speakers at the 61st NABE—National Association of Business Economics Annual Meeting. The event is star-studded as few non-FRB events are—Economists, possibly, enjoying a period of celebrity unmatched at any other time in history. On the 6th, K.C. Fed Pres George speaks, as does Arthur Laffer (of the Laffer Curve), and David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors, who’s well-known for running Camp Kotok mid-summer, by invitation-only. On the 7th, Ed Lazear—a former White House NEC leader, Ellen Zentner—Morgan Stanley’s Chief US Economist, and Christine Romer of UCal Berkeley all speak @NABE. On the 8th, in addition to Goldman Sach’s Jeff Curie, (on Oil & Gas), FOMC Chief Jerome Powell will speak (at 2:30pm). Also on the 8th, Richard Curtin, the long-time compiler of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Surveys, in which Wall Street puts much more significance than this long-time consumer observer does. The U.M. Interim Surveys, mid-month, may be based on fewer than 250 respondents, though they aim for 500. The final monthly survey is based on up to 2,500 respondents. However, the problem is consumers sometimes fib, and other times, go shopping exactly when they feel the worst. Other times, they feel so bad they don’t shop at all. Knowing when that line is crossed is art more than science, making surveys of so few consumers all but worthless. Then, there are parents who must shop, even when their hearts and wallets aren’t in it, at all—like for new shoes, because the kids have outgrown or shredded their old ones.
Also prominently speaking, this week, is the Bk of England’s Governor Carney, including at a Tokyo Summit on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, an issue US SEC filings may soon have to include. Overnight, Tuesday, the BoE will publish the Financial Policy Summary & Record of the Monetary Policy Committee Sept Meeting. Hard to imagine there won’t be more on Brexit in that document. Also this week, the Nobel Prize winners will be announced, the schedule we couldn’t find last week, finally posted for this week, and duly noted on the Economic Calendar. Of one thing I’m sure, Trump will not be named the winner of the Peace Prize, as he hoped to be last year, strong-arming Japan PM Abe to nominate him. ECB’s Lane is a panelist at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy, subtitled ‘bridging science & practice.’ Powell pops up again, this week, making brief remarks before the premiere screening of the KUED film, "Marriner Eccles: Father of the Modern Federal Reserve," taking place Monday, in Salt Lake city UT. On Wednesday, the ECB publishes its account of the Sept 11—12 Governing Council MPC Meeting.
Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari is, also, prominent this week, first at NAFOA (Native American Finance Officers Association), for their Annual Finance & Tribal Economies Conference, participating in a fireside chat on what his Fed has done in Native American areas, Monday. Tuesday, he speaks at a Town Hall at St Cloud State University. Then, Thursday, he participates in another fireside chat with Q&A on the Federal Reserve, the economy & markets at a Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit, in NY. Thursday is the day the Chinese delegation, led by Premier Liu, arrives in D.C. for trade negotiations. Also Thursday, Fed’s Mester participates in a fireside chat w/Q&A @John Carrol University, in Ohio. Then, there’s ECB’s Lane, again, at a CEPR Research & Policy Network Workshop, occurring late in the evening, in Frankfurt, Germany. Then Friday, there’s Kashkari, again, for a fireside chat at the Council of Foreign Relations, w/Q&A, at an 8am breakfast. Also, Friday, Fed’s Rosengren & Kaplan speak, separately, even as the Federal Reserve Bank in D.C. opens its doors to students, on "Exploring Careers in Economics."
Which brings us to the Earnings Calendar, as slim as any, ever, in any quarter. The highlight is Delta Airlines, Thursday, Domino’s Pizza Tuesday, the same day Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE) Reports. HELE was originally scheduled to report and hold its conference call, after the close on the 8th. Perhaps because of the Jewish Holiday, it switched the timing to pre-market, on the 8th. Fastenal, Friday, could suffer from the slowdown of 737 MAX plane building, at Boeing. As those who remember Rosie the Riveter know, it takes a lot of bolts to build an airplane.
Which brings us to the Events Calendar where NABE remains the Even of the Week. But, a nod to AAAE’s North American Airports Conference, and Edison Electric Institute’s Key Accounts Workshop, starting Sunday, when the aforementioned NAFOA starts, along with ABA’s A.I. in Banking, and SNAC Int’l Executive Leadership Forum, Pepsi setting the stage for some snack winners. The American Trucking Association Management Conference and Expo, ATA MC&E started earlier this weekend but Wolfe Research won’t get around to its Trucking Forum until Monday. Note Microsoft, IBM & Oracle are all hosting separate customer events, this week, while Monday’s biggest even is the elimination of commissions on US stock & ETF trades at all the discount brokers except Fidelity, for now. Interactive Brokers was first to drop commissions 2 weeks ago but the hammer didn’t fall at E-Trade & TD Ameritrade until Charles Schwab dropped commissions last week.
It shouldn’t surprise that John Deere, Mondelez & Tyson are speakers at the Wall Street Journal’s Global Food Forum but just as the aforementoned big tech companies all holding customer events simultaneously, it’s a little surprising that Arm, Hitachi, and NXP Semiconductor are all hosting Tech User events, Tuesday. That’s 6 large tech companies picking the same week for their customer events, which makes it difficult for a dual customer to attend more than one. Hormel, which sounds like a perfect fit for the WSJ event, instead, is hosting its Investor Day on Thursday.
WASET the World Academy of Science of Engineering & Technology, starting Tuesday, covers Biomedical tech & Biomechanics but, also, Aerospace, Avionics, & Aeronautics, Aeroponically Grown Food, Biomaterials, Veterinary Medicine, Art & Design, Animal Genetics, Auditory Brainstem Transplants, Food Engineering, and so many other topics it would be impossible to list them all. Over 2 dozen subconferences, including an Anti-Fashion & Styles Conference, so it’s said.
Last week, the Nasdaq Comp was the only index to finish higher but the other major indices slashed their losses with Friday’s celebration of a meh September Unemployment Report. Friday’s rally snowballed into the close, and exhibited more fear of missing out, than fear of losing, as if someone was afraid that if they waited until late in the month, the train would have already left the station. It’s that fear of missing out on the next rally that’s characterized the past 9 months of trading—which quite honestly, scares the beheezus out of me. We have an unstable leader in the White House, who has no sense of decorum, and has picked a fight with our friends and enemies alike, while praising the world’s most fearsome dictators to the rafters. Given October’s well-deserved reputation for scary sell-offs, that are rescued sometime between the 25th and 31st, it’s foolhardy to believe the downside we saw, early last week, is the last of the selling. It’s the kind of market that’s better for selling puts on stocks you really want to own at lower prices, rather than buying stocks, straight out. I’ll note the strength in homebuilders’ charts, which are usually a better sell, this time of year, than a buy. Other charts that stood out include Apple, which broke out above resistance, and Edwards LifeSciences, that surged to a new high, even as Texas Instruments looks poised to break out like Apple. PG also looks like it wants to go higher, though it’s become a fairly expensive stock, as it is.
If I was a betting person—which I’m not, I’d bet on more swoons before the month ends—perhaps another early exit from the Chinese negotiators, like we saw last month, when their trip to farm country was canceled—by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, to hear him tell it, 5 days after they left. And bear in mind, if you’re eager to buy stocks, right now, recall that impeachment proceedings are ongoing, and likely to reveal more unsavory goings on in the White House. I wouldn’t say you should sell everything here, because the bulls have repeatedly proved themselves persistent. But I see no reason to jump in to buy, at the moment either. It’s earnings warnings season, if you see nothing else to deter to.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)
SUNDAY, 10/06
China Fx Reserves
K.C. Fed’s George closes 1st day @NABE Business Economics Conf. (4pm et; Denver CO)
OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
China Sept Caixin Services+Composite PMI
Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine Announced
MONDAY, 10/07
Fed’s Kashkari fireside chat about MN Fed’s work in Native Am. Country @NAFOA Annual Finance & Tribal Economies Conference (10:20aml Prior Lake MN)
WSJ Global Food Forum (NY)
U.S. Supreme Court back in session
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
Fed Chief Powell remarks before premiere screening of KUED Film: "Marriner Eccles: Father of the Modern Federal Reserve" (1pm et Salt Lake City UT)
US Aug Consumer Credit (3pm et; debt really)
National Day Golden Week Continues in China & Hong Kong
OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
Japan Aug Trade Balance, Household Spending, Labor Cash Earnings
BoE Gov Carney speaks @Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure Summit (Tokyo; 5:10 gmt)
China New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing
German & Spanish Aug Industrial Production
BoE’s Cleland speaks @PayExpo 2019 (London 12:10 gmt)
Nobel Prize for Physics Announced
TUESDAY, 10/08
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Canada Sept Housing Starts/Aug Building Permits
US Sept PPI—Final Demand (8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
US Treasury Auctions $28B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed’s Evans speaks w/Q&A @Chicago Rotary Club luncheon (1:35pm Chicago IL)
FOMC Chief Powell speaks @NABE on "Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy" (2:30pm et)
Fed’s Kashkari speaks @St Cloud State Univ. Town Hall w/Q&A (5pm et St Cloud MN)
Holiday in India--Dasara
Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement for Jews, starts at Sundown
OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
BoE publishes Financial Policy Summary & Record of the MPC Cmte Meeting (9:30 gmt)
ECB’s Lane panelist @ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science & practice (Frankfurt Germany 11:30 cet)
Nobel Prize for Chemistry Announced
Publication of the Consolidated Financial Quarterly Statement of the Eurosystem
WEDNESDAY, 10/09
Yom Kippur, the holiest day in Judaism, with many traders away
MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
US Aug JOLTS (Job Turnover & Openings; 10am et)
US Aug Wholesale Trade (Sales/Inventories)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et; w/e 10/04)
Fed’s Powell opens, then he & K.C. Fed’s George co-host roundtable "Fed Listens: A Community Listening Session" before Community & Biz Leaders (11am et K.C. MO)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed Minutes of 2-day Meeting ended Sept 18th (2pm et)
Yom Kippur ends at Sundown
OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
UK RICS Sept Home Price Balance
Japan Reuters Oct Tankan Index
China Sept Foreign Direct Investment
German Aug Trade Balance, Current Account Balance, Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P
ECB publishes account of the Sept 11—12, 2019 Governing Council MPC Mtg (13:30 cet)
UK NIESR GDP, Aug Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, Index of Services
"The Economist" Future of Finance (London)
BoE Gov Carney speaks at Launch of new 20 GBP banknote (Margate; 10:30 gmt)
Nobel Prize for Literature for 2018 & 2019 Announced
OPEC Monthly Report (estimated date)
THURSDAY, 10/10
US Sept CPI (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Sept Chain Store Sales
Bloomberg Future of Investing: Focus on Corporate Governance (D.C.)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 10/04)
Chinese Delegation Arrives for 2-days of Trade Talks (D.C. thru 11th)
Fed’s Kashkari fireside chat on Fed Reserve, economy & markets @Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit (NY 12:15pm et)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
ECB’s Lane speaks #CEPR Research & Policy Network Workshop (Frankfurt 19:30 cet)
Fed’s Mester fireside chat w/Q&A @John Carrol U (5:30p, University Heights OH)
OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
Singapore (P) Q3 GDP
RBA (Aussie) Financial Stability Review
So. Korea BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting Minutes
Eurozone, French, German, Italian, Spanish Sept CPI & HICP
Nobel Prize for Peace announced
FRIDAY, 10/11
Fed’s Kashkari fireside chat @Council on Foreign Relations w/Q&A (8am et; NY)
US Sept Import/Export Prices (8:30am et)
Canada Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Wages/Part-/Full-time
U.M. (P) Oct Consumer Sentiment--Current/Expectations (10am et)
Fed Reserve Bank hosts students on "Exploring Careers in Economics" (10:30am et; D.C.)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm 35; w/e 10/04)
Fed’s Rosengren speaks @American Economic Challenges Symposium @Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison (1:15pm et; Madison WI)
Fed’s Kaplan speaks w/Q&A @Commonwealth Club of California (3pm et; San Francisco CA)
OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
Singapore (F) Q2 GDP
SATURDAY, 10/12
Brazil Holiday—Our Lady of Aparecida Day
WEEKS AHEAD: 10/14 Economic Sciences Memorial Prize in memory of Alfred Nobel will be announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
10/15 12 Democratic 2020 Presidential Hopefuls Debate (on CNN)
10/24 ECB MPC Meets (a Week pre-Brexit)
Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
10/29—30 FOMC 2-day Meeting
10/30 FOMC Interest Rate Decision Statement
Chairman Powell’s Press Conference (2:30pom et)
Bk of Canada MPC Rate Decision
10/31 BoJ MPC Meets
EARNINGS: (We no longer separate pre- from post-market releases. We ignore "the" in a company name unless it’s integral to the ticker—it rarely is. "???" after a ticker means we’ve seen it on many competing Earnings Calendars but couldn’t confirm the date ourselves. Any company that didn’t confirm by Thursday, 10/03, at noon, is not included. We usually check every IR site for every company supposed to report but now, frequently, hit a wall because we won’t permission cookies at all of them. In those instances, we’re guided by 3rd parties who have proven reliable in the past but could be wrong on any given ticker. Emboldened tickers are those we expect the Street and/or Media to focus on most, or those we believe will most impact a sector or stock indices, altogether, or a group that’s dominant during the week. It’s subjective, and you’re free to disagree.)
MONDAY, 10/07: gwph???, wit???
TUESDAY, 10/08: AZZ, DPZ, HELE, LEVI
WEDNESDAY, 10/09: EXFO, RELL, SAR
THURSDAY, 10/10: DAL
FRIDAY, 10/11: FAST, infy???
EVENTS:
CONTINUING SUNDAY, 10/06
61st NABE Nat’l Ass’n of Business Economics Annual Meeting (Denver CO thru 8th)
ATA Am. Trucking Ass’n Management Conference/Expo (San Diego CA thru 9th)
PMI Global Project Management Congress (Philadelphia PA thru 7th)
Chinese Golden Week
25th Int’l Symposium on Hep C & Related Viruses (Seoul So. Korea thru 8th)
STARTING SUNDAY, 10/06
AAAE NAC—North American Airports Conference (San Antonio TX thru 8th)
EEI (Edison Electric Institute) Fall National Key Accounts Workshop (Las Vegas thru 9th)
SNAC Int’l Executive Leadership Forum (Lake Tahoe CA thru 8th)
NAFOA Native Am. Fall Finance & Tribal Economies Conference (Prior Lake NM thru 8th)
ABA A.I. in Banking (Chicago thru 8th)
Service Management FUSION 19 (New Orleans LA thru 10th)
AHECTA Higher Ed Communications Tech Advancement (Atlanta GA thru 9th)
Microsoft (MSFT) Visual Studio Live (Chicago IL thru 10th)
Target Stores (TGT) Debuts New Loyalty Program, Target Circle
MONDAY, 10/07
Wolfe Research 12th Trucking Forum @ATA MC&E (San Diego CA thru 8th)
NAMA (Agri-Marketing) Grow North (St Louis MO thru 9th)
Point-of-Care Diagnostics, Global Health-Viral Diseases Congress (Coronado Island CA thru 9th)
Lab-on-a-Chip & Microfluidics World Congress +Single Cell Analysis (Coronado Island thru 9th)
Public Safety Drone Expo (Columbus OH thru 10th)
European Summit on Robots, A.I. & Autonomous Vehicles (Paris FR thru 8th)
9th Int’l Conf. on Neurological Disorders & Stroke (Dublin, Ireland thru 8th)
3rd World Congress on Neurology & Therapeutics (Madrid Spain thru 8th)
Macquarie Indonesia Rock & Metal Day (Singapore)
Swell Ripple Insights (Singapore thru 8th)
Altaba (AABA) delisted from Nasdaq; FINRA won’t issue a ticker for Pink sheet trading
Banco Santander (SAN) Exec. Chair Ana Botin speaks @Economic Club of NY (11:30am et)
CHC: Cerner (CERN) Physician Community Fall Health Conference (Kansas City MO thru 8th)
Charles Schwab (SCHW) stops charging commission on US Stock & ETF Trades
E-Trade Financial (ETFC) stops charging commission on US Stock & ETF trades
IBM (IBM) Systems Technical University (Las Vegas thru 11th)
John Deere (DE) speaking @WSJ Global Food Forum (NY)
Mondelez (MDLZ) speaks @WSJ Global Food Forum (NY)
JAX 2019 Java (ORCL)+London (London thru 10th)
Siemens AG (SMMNY) (SHL:GR) Healthineers Executive Summit (Amsterdam NL thru 9th)
TD Ameritrade (AMTD) stops charging commission on US Stock & ETF Trades
Tyson Foods (TSN) speaks @WSJ Global Food Forum )NY)
TUESDAY, 10/08
DataWeek + APIWorld + Festival +Hackathon (San Jose CA thru 11th)
WASET World Academy of Science of Engineering & Technology Int’l Conf (NY thru 9th)
Food Processors Fall Conference (Chicago thru 11th)
Intranet Global Forum (NY thru 9th)
C3 Conversational Commerce Conference (NY)
JPMorgan European Tech Stars Conference (London)
Jefferies Industrials 1x1 Conference (London)
Berenberg UK Opportunities Conference (London thru 10th)
ARM (SFTBY) TechCon Summit (San Jose CA thru 10th)
Hitachi (HTHIY) NEXT 3rd Annual User Event "Made by Data" (Las Vegas thru 10th)
NXP (NXPI) Tech Days (Plymouth MI thru 9th)
WEDNESDAY, 10/09
Jefferies Gene Therapy Summit (NY)
BMO Capital 5th Financial Institutions Global Canadian High Yield Conf. (Toronto Cda thru 10th)
Citi GPS: Electric Aircraft (London)
25th EADV: Dermatology & Venereology Congress Madrid Spain thru 13th)
THURSDAY, 10/10
RBC Capital Global Energy Conference (Las Vegas)
CanaccordGenuity Energy 1x1 Day (NY)
JMP Securities Wealth Tech Day (San Francisco)
S.W. Dental Conference (Dallas TX thru 11th)
Franchise & Business Opportunities Expo (Tampa FL thru 12th)
IASLC Int’l Ass’n for Study of Lung Cancer N. Am. Conference (Chicago thru 12th)
Entelec (Energy Telecommunications & Electrical Ass’n) Fall Seminar/Expo (Odessa TX)
EHA: European Hematology Scientific Meeting on Ganulocytes & Constitutional Marrow Failure Disorders & Leukemia Predisposing Genes (Prague Czech Republic thru 12th)
Citi Jinxin Fertility Investor Open Day (Chengdu, Shenzhen China thru 11th)
Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) Investor Day (8am edt)
QVC (QTREA) Auctions Donated Shoes from Cruise FFANY Show (Web)
Slack Technologyies (WORK) meeting w/Stephens clients @Hdqtrs (San Francisco)
Verizon’s (VZ) YahooFinance All Markets Summit (NY)
FRIDAY, 10/11
JPMorgan Macro Quantitative & Derivatives Conference (London)
EULAR 9th Advanced Academic Rheumatology Review (Abu Dhabi UAE thru 14th)
Euronext (ENX:L) Investor Day
20th New Yorker Festival (NY thru 13th)
FILMS OPENING: "Gemini Man," with Will Smith, Clive Owen, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Benedict Wong, directed by Ang Lee, distributed by Paramount Pictures (VIA.B). Co-written by David Benioff ("Game of Thrones" scripts for HBO), Fosun Group Forever Pictures joined Skydance Media & Jerry Burckheimer films to produce the film, after it spent 20 years in Hollywood’s development hell, since David Lemke conceived of the story, in 1997. "The Addams Family," animated, rather than redone in live action, with the voices of Charlize Theron, Oscar Isaac, Chloe Grace Moretz, Finn Wolfhard, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dog, Allison Janney, Martin Short, distributed by Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer. (I’d rather see Raul Julia & Anjelica. Houston in another live version). "Jexi," with Rose Byrne, Justin Hartley, Adam Devine, Michael Pena Wanda Sykes, a Siri-type Assistant, Jexi, takes over a man’s life, just as he’s ready to get a life outside his smartphone. Sounds like 21st Century satire to us, from CBS Films & Entertainment One, distributed by LionsGate Entertainment (LGF.A), written & directed by Jon Lucas & Scott Moore. "Little Monsters," with Lupita Nyong’o, Josh Gad, Stephen Peacocke. Zombies who up on a school trip but how scary can it be when Taylor Swift performs the soundtrack? United Artists distributes, and that’s a JV of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer studios & Annapurna Pictures.
SATURDAY, 10/12
ASRM Reproductive Medicine Annual Meeting (Philadelphia LA thru 16th) EARLIER 2019 OUTLOOK EXCERPTS HERE
© Sandi Lynne 2019 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.