Derivatives Annual General Meeting the same day. The EU Banking authority Chairman,
Campo, keynotes ISDA, also, the same day. Thursday, newbie FedHead Waller speaks on the
topic of the week at the GICGlobal Interdependence Center Monetary & Trade
V-Conference. Wednesday, well get CPI, and Thursday PPI but, alas, the FOMC insists
CPI rises will be transitory, and at least, after Fridays weak April Jobs Report, we
cant dismiss such talk out of hand. An economy as weak as that jobs report proved,
if sustained upon revisions, cant handle significantly higher inflation, no matter
that Kimberly-Clark & Procter & Gamble plan to raise the price of toilet paper.
Theyll get away wit hit on necessities but, perhaps, not on other staples.
The Earnings Calendar was not prepared with the kind of thoroughness upon which we pride ourselves. Comcast upgrading the grid here, kept us offline most of the weekend. That prevented us from checking every purported Earnings release scheduled. When all was said and done, we checked selected tickers, like Alibaba and Airbnb, on Thursday, but simply couldnt check the rest. In most cases, were deleted the tickers we couldnt verify, and left a few that seemed reasonable based on part experience. Well note that some large hotel chains are reporting, some chain restaurants, and two large casino suppliersScientific Games & IGT. Also note Walt Disney, on Thursday.
Which brings us to Events, and the return of I-bank conferences in greater numbers, even as many industry events are still being pushed out to August and later, when in-person events are more likely, even as a few show up this week. Speaking of hotels reporting, Monday Wells Faro & Raymond James jointly host a Lodging V-Summit. Citi is hosting Communications Services, Infrastructure & Media IR V-Day, while JPMorgan is hosting an Insurance 1x1 V-Forum, and Northcoast Research its Spring Consumer & Industrials V-Conference. The 33rd Hunter Hotel Investment Conference is also this week, along with SEMI ASMCthe Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing V-Conference, as well as Jefferies China Semi & Smartphone Component V-Days. Note, also, EDSElectronic Distribution, because theyre the first to see supply chain shortages.
Tuesday there are even more big conferences, including Bk of Americdas Healthcare, Goldman Sachs Industrials & Materials, Citi Global Energy & Utilities, Barclays Energy Leaders, and Oppenheimers Emerging Growth, as wekk as CannacrodGenuitys Cannabis, KBWs European Finbancials, Morgan Stanleys GEMS/EMEA, Credit Suisse Mexico Investment, and Berenbergs Diagnostics, plus Citi Diversified Financials, UBS Pan-European Financials, UBS Pan-European Small & MidCap, & Credit Suisse 9th Annual China A-Share V-conference. For those of you new to us or have forgotten, when we list Events, we list US events first, followed by outside US Events. When all events are Virtual, theyre all more accessible, and the location is nearly immaterial. But weve kept to our listing system, anticipating the full return to in-person events in the near future. Armed with the key to our system, please check Wednesday through Friday, as listed, the US events, followed by outside US events, followed by individual corporate events, and some general interest events, after those. The Sohn Conference, long held to raise money to support childrens cancer treatment, this year is in support of Rockefeller University, which leaves us flat. Speakers start at noon edt, and not as well-known as those of past years.
I think all the FedHeads will reinforce the message Powell has been sending, backed by everyone but Kaplan & Bullardits too soon to even talk about talking about tapering. Aprils Employment Report makes that stance look less foolish than it did pre-266K jobs added. Some are claiming seasonal adjustments are distorting the numbers, because April is a month in which were used to seeing strong hiring. Perhaps but theres no getting around how weak the number was. Or, as Ive long been saying, all the Economy has been doing is restoring jobs lost to the pandemic. There have been NO jobs added. Per se. When the 8m still unemployed are rehired we can talk about added jobs. Until then, its all restored jobs.
Furthermore, Id like to remind those upset that the administration wants intellectual property "ownership" waived for the COVID-19 vaccine, that the prior administrations Operation Warp Speed spent billions to support vaccine development, and by rights, owns all the IP that arose from that spending, Moderna would not have been able to develop squat, without a rich Uncle Sam, or a large pharma footing the bill. Pfizer didnt accept billions, only the promise that the US Government would spend billions if its vaccine candidate was approved for usequite an incentive, that steered it to BioNTech, who had the technology that would allow quick development. And speaking of COVID-19 vaccines, a personal aside, after Global Citizens VAX Concert reportedly raised $302m.
I was told 12 years ago to never have another vaccination. Until COVID-19, Id observed that ban, which came from the neurologist treating my mother for Guillain-Barre, whod noticed a lump on my arm where my last vaccination has been injected. He was unavailable to consult during the pandemic, so I called the CDC and asked what theyre recommending to people whod suffered a reaction to their last vaccine, and were told never again. Speaking in general terms, since they couldnt examine me, I was told that people in my situation were being asked to seek the J&J--one-and done, since most reactions occurred after the 2nd shot of Moderna or Pfizer, if at all. While its only been a week, and I could still suffer the much-publicized blood clot no one wants, so far so good. I share this information for anyone similarly situated, who wants to know what others are doing. Mom, whos still around, was told she should NOT have another vaccine, and has decided to seek out as many as it takes until one says she can. Sounds like a bad idea to me but since she still living after celebrating her 94 birthday 2 months ago, she didnt get there listening to me, and will continue to forge her own path. To everyone else, I say get the vaccine, for yourself, your family, and your neighbors.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar, here)
© Sandi Lynne 2021 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a on to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the authors, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
May 0207, 2021 A THIRD WEEK UNCHANGED ON ITS WAY, as the Earnings Deluge Becomes a Tsunami Thursday, more companies will report earnings than reported the entire first week of the Q1 Earnings Season. But unlike last week, there just arent the power in this weeks reports to take the entire market down, or lift it up. Powell is speaking Monday but on Community Development, hardly the kind of topic that moves markets strongly. And anyway, its far too soon to expect him to shift positions. In fact, many are coalescing on the August Jackson Hole Economic Summit for a change, if any is coming, to be detailed.
One item in favor of stocks is an extremely light calendar of Treasury Issuance. For all intents and purposes, Treasuries are over and done and Monday, given whats left is 42-day, 4-week & 8-week issues, and nothing else. And of course, positioning will be difficult before Fridays April Unemployment Report, when at least 1m job additions are expectedmore hoped for. The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee meets Thursday with no change expected, despite intermittent spoken interest in negative rates, by some FPC members. The RBA (Aussie) also meets this week but with no power to influence US rates or equities.
The 29th Hyman P Mnsky Conference, on the 5th is from the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Its subtitled Prospects & Challenges for the US and Europe in an Emerging post-Pandemic Recovery. Among the speakers, Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan, Chicago Fed Pres. Evans, Leuthold Groups James Paulsen, Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius, and many other distinguished economists, including some former govt ones, like Harvards James Furman, and the Economic Cycles Research Institutes Laksman Achuthanthe group that declares recessions & their conclusions. It usually makes news.
Which takes us to Earnings, a boatload of reports that crescendo on Thursday. But a quick glance at those emboldened, compared to the sheer volume of reports, pretty much says it all about our expectations for markets to move on the news., Energy-related & Hotel companies are prevalent among the reportors, along with major Pharma companies like Merck, Pfizer, Regeneron, & Moderna.. There are also a few cable companies, and T-Mobile along with the 3 largest auto insurers, ex-Geico & State Farm, which arent independently traded, though you can play Geico via Berkshire Hathaway. There are a slug of miners we simply couldnt confirm. In fact, of all the sectors we include in the Earnings Calendars, none is more deficient in providing a heads-up than the miners. Very disappointing, given the number of gold believers there are as an age old hedge against inflation the gold bugs are sure is coming.about to get out of control.
The Events Calendar sees the return of I-banks in greater numbers. Tuesday, OpCo hosts Industrials Growth, Wednesday, Wells Fargo Industrials. D.A. Davidson hosts Financial Institutions on Wednesday, Credit Suisse Xtreme Services on Thursday, a tech segment that is attracting greater interest all the timeeven before Salesforce.com was added to the Dow jones Industrial Average. Friday, the FTSE Russell Indices Rank Date for Junes Rebalance will be issued after hours. Therell be 5 more notices from FTSE Russell, before the rebalance actually happens but positioning will begin soon enoughand long before the rebalances are finalized.
VAX Live is a Charity event, Saturday night, organized by Global Citizen, Jennifer Lopez & Selena Gomez. It will also feature Foo Fighters, Eddie Vedder, H.E.R., and others whove signed on since it was first announced. Meanwhile, Billy Crystal is breaking the chain of movies premiered online as well as in theaters. He wrote, directed and also stars with Tiffany Haddish in "Here Today," which he insisted had to open exclusively in theaters, and not be streamed simultaneously. Its another story of dementia overtaking a mans mindCrystals, in the filmthe subject that won Anthony Hopkins an OSCAR last week, which the world thought would go to Chadwick Boseman.
Last week, our Outlook was for a 2nd flat week, and thats what we got, with the S&P 500 flat, the DJIA off 0.5%. and the Nasdaq Composite off 0.4%. Were calling for another week of consolidation, though the absence of serious Treasury issuance could weigh in the equity bulls favor. Beyond that is still anyones guess, and something we dont have to venture except week by week.
ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full