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March 05—09, 2018  
TARIFFS NOT AS ORIGINALLY SHOT ACROSS THE BOW?  There seemed to be some back tracking on the severity of tariffs the Trump White house will levy on steel & aluminum, over the weekend. At a minimum, there was talk about exemptions, which is all well and good, but doesn’t solve the problem of the enhanced influence Peter Navarro may be having on the President.

Note how little debt the Treasury is planning on offering this week. Three-month, 6-month, and 4 week is It! That may help keep stocks from falling too much more, especially if the rumored exemptions become reality. But with so many central bankers speaking—our own, as well as the rate setting committees in Australia, Canada, at the ECB, and, finally, into Friday, the BoJ. The latter has dropped the taper bomb with no repercussions, as yet.

The Earnings Calendar is concentrated around consumer names, including many retailers & restaurants. Target & Ross Stores should lead on Tuesday, Costco Wholesale & Dollar Tree on Wednesday, Kroger on Thursday, though I also emboldened a few names that are less followed, because it might be time to give them more attention. In the same vein, note the analyst meetings, this week, Chevron, Lam Research & Target on Tuesday, when half the tech analysts will be focused on Qualcomm, and the nominees to its board that Broadcom is asking shareholders to approve. Given that QCOM basically told AVGO that it will take more money than what’s been offered, I suspect shareholders will hold their ground with current management. ExxonMobil is hosting its Analyst Day Wednesday, Cott on Thursday, while Bank of NY Mellon, CBRE, & USG on Friday.

Big Events include IHS Markit CERAWEEK, which starts on Monday, the 5th, include well known speakers Dr Daniel Yergin, DoE Sec’y Rick Perry, Saudi Armaco’s Amin Nasser, GM CEO Mary Barra, RDS.A CEO, OPEC Sec’y General Barkindo, Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources, the leaders of OXY, BP, IEA, UAE Minister of Industry & Energy, DUK, FCX’s LNG, Trafigura, Xcoal Energy, SLB, Siemens, Reliance Industries, Mitsubishi Heavy, DOW Chemical, FERC, Edison Int’l, PG&E, Exelon, EMR, Petronas, COP, CPN, HES, YPF, BHGE and more So one highlight of the week.

Also starting Monday, Deutsche Bank’s Media, Telecom & Business Services Conference in Palm Beach—if the NY area and other East Coast airports can reopen. There’s a break before JPMorgan opens Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum starting Thursday, a day on which Bank of America/Merrill Lynch hosts Refining.

A fantastic 16-month run up after the election doesn’t have the excesses wrung out of it by 3 or 5 days of selling. Still, should the White House include exemptions from the Steel & Aluminum tariffs, as rumored over the weekend, then a bounce would not surprise but it won’t solve the problem of Navarro’s growing clout, or the wild man elected President who loves to shock & awe.

ECONOMIC: (Highlights, below. Complete International Economic Calendar here)

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed is the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

February, 26th—March 2nd, 2018  
CAN POWELL TALK AND SAY SOMETHING?   FOMC chief Powell’s testimony at House Financial Services Cmte moved to Tuesday from Wednesday, due to a scheduling issue. He reprises his testimony in the Senate on Thursday. This will be his first solo testimony, at which we’re not likely to learn as much about his positions as the Street wants to know. For balance, ECB’s Draghi testifies at the EU Parliament, Sunday night (Monday European time). His days are numbered, since his term ends next year, and there’s already jockeying for his position. While we’re on the subject, other Central bankers speaking include Bullard, Vice chairman Quarles, even as Governors at NGA will split up, Monday, and meet with either Trump or Pence at the White House.

Big Economic Data is centered around housing, including Monday’s Jan New Home Sales, & Tuesday’s Case Shiller Dec Home Price Index & FHFA’s Dec Home Price Index. December? Why would the Street wait for that when Zillow and other sites are updated sooner? OK, Ok, FHFA I get because it compares sales of a specific house with its prior sale but S&P Case Shiller CoreLogix? They have time to add more titles but not to push out the data faster?

One big event, this week, is in Barcelona, rather than the US. It’s the GSM Mobile World Congress, Samsung supposed to debut its Galaxy S9 at the show, on Sunday, before the show officially opened. Sony’s Monday press conference presumably is to unveil a new smartphone, too, while Huawei is expected to launch its latest, even as HMD Global, holder of the Nokia licenses, is expected to debut at least one new smartphone.

Other big events this week, closer to home, include Morgan Stanley’s Tech, Media & Telecom Conference in San Francisco, JPMorgan’s Global Emerging Markets & Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance both meet in Miami Beach, and overlap. There’s, also, the 11th Annual Medicaid Managed care Summit, Citi’s Asset Management, Broker Dealers & Market Structure Conference, BAC/MER’s Global Agriculture & Materials Conference, KBW Cards, Payments & Financial Technology, in NY. The largest US corporate meeting is AAAI Jointly with the World Allergy Congress, starting Friday, in Orlando.

All in, a very busy week with much of what happens dependent on what Jay Powell says in 2-days of Congressional testimony. He may not have mastered the art of saying a lot without saying anything but, then, maybe he’ll be more like Janet Yellen, and not really look to do anything but honestly guide markets and rates. The questions is what’s his favorite indicator? For Yellen, it was PCE—Core Personal Consumption Expenditures. For Powell? That is the question.

Consumer names own Earnings, this week, including Macy*s, Nordstrom, JCPenney, TJX, Barnes & Noble, Best Buy, FootLocker, Lowe’s, Big lots, Gap Stores, Kohl’s, to name just a few. My bet is JPMorgan Chase’s analyst meeting will be more influential. Furthermore, I expect some of the air that’s was blown into retailers after holiday sales were not as devastating as in past years to leave the shares after they report. The wonder wasn’t that Walmart fell after it reported a miss but that the Street had fallen so in love with WMT, into its Q4 results. The two stores closest to me are still filthy, poorly stocked but distasteful locations that no one seems to care about.

ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

February 19—23, 2018   ANOTHER SHORT WEEK THAT COULD FEEL LONGER THAN IT IS   I thought about highlighting Walmart’s earnings, or maybe WMT & Home Depot earnings, and stopping there (both Tuesday) but, in the end, the volume of restaurants reporting weighed against that fleeting thought, suggesting more angles for consumer spending to be examined. Still, I think the week amounts to those 2 reports, because the FOMC Minutes, out Wednesday, will still reflect the Yellen Federal Reserve, not lead by Jay Powell. Put February 28th on your calendar for his starring role at Congress.

Otherwise, what stands out this week is China’s Lunar New Year celebrations, which means no guidance from the far east. And that’s unfortunate, in a week that includes so much Treasury Debt at Auction, including $55B worth of 4-week bills, an amount I can’t say I ever remember seeing. Add in larger than previous 3-, & 6-month Bills, plus 5- and 7-year Notes (Wed/Thurs), and the Asian absence could be felt, the longer the term, the more dampened interest, of late.

And it’s not like we’re not going to hear a lot from FOMC speakers, this week. It’s bonanza time, some on the Street fairly vocal in their wish that Powell would tamp down the competing viewpoints espoused intra-meetings.

The Conservative Political Action Committee meeting just outside D.C. promises Trump, VP Pence, Ed Sec’y Betsy DeVos, Sean Hannity, Ajit Pai, Mick Mulvaney, Sen. Ted Cruz, Pawn Stars’ Rick Harrison, UK’s Nigel Farage, and many others that aren’t equal bold-faced names. Still, that grumbling you hear during the week may just be liberals nursing stomach aches. NGA, the National Governors Winter Meeting is also in D.C, this week, a speaking invitation to the Pres. no doubt out months ago. If that’s happening, it’s impossible to say. The Event Website offers a skeletal Agenda, without details. It won’t be a repeat of CPAC, though.

In other Events, CAGNY(Consumer Analysts of NY) stands out, Monday, because the package foods industry, the dominant speakers, need some inflation to grow their earnings. One surprise invitee is JNJ. Wednesday also stands out because both Citi & Barclays are hosting separate Industrials Conferences that start that day, both in Miami. What were the odds? Thursday’s 94th USDA Ag Outlook Forum: The Roots of Prosperity is scheduled at a time when farmers are looking at some of their worst earnings, another group that could use some inflation to boost prices of commodities.

So, a market that’s a little directionless without Asia doesn’t mean stocks can’t continue their recovery, but does increase the odds that stocks may be looking up at nearby resistance, and feel a need to chop around consolidating the territory already recouped since the Fed Chief Powell swear-in sell off that started on 02/05.

I have 2 off-topic comments: Since when does flying down a mile-long ice structure at 60 mph, on a lunch tray with handles constitute sport? I realize some "sports" Ndate back to win men went out with guns & clubs to catch dinner but skeleton? Are you kidding me, calling it a sport?

And then, I have to say something about the Parkland massacre, which occurred less than 11 miles from where we live, and 2 years ago, might have trapped one of our god children in the madness. I get that the constitution allows for citizens to arm but nowhere in the constitution did the founding fathers either explicitly or by inferrence extend that right to automatic weapons which they could neither anticipate nor cite. It is time for automatic weapons to be left to law enforcement and the armed forces but kept out of citizens hands. Sandi

ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only below. Full International Economic Calendar here)

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

February 12—16, 2018  
HOW DOES THE STREET REACT TO BLOWING UP THE DEFICIT BY ANOTHER $200B?   Whether the latest volatility runs its course by this week could depend on how the Street reacts to Trump proposing adding another $200B to the deficit on infrastructure spending. Recall, the problems started in the debt markets, so that’s what must be watched, still. Meanwhile, 3 weeks sick makes me wonder how deeply this year’s flu epidemic curtailed worker productivity.

ECONOMIC: (Full Int'l Economic Calendar here)

2018 Sandi Lynne Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.
February 05—09, 2018   CORRECTION COULD FIND A BOTTOM BY END OF WEEK      Sandi’s still very sick and doing as much as she can.

Time was, Super Bowl was a 4-day weekend of events for fans who’d spend $20--$45 to roam through football fandom. For 2018, the festivities have been going on since Jan 29th, and there was, even, a 19th Annual Super Bowl Gospel Celebration. This surprises me because I attended one of the Super Bowl weekends in Miami, maybe even more than 19 years ago, and this is the 1st time I’ve seen a "Gospel" celebration on the schedule. Tix were $20, and some were still available as of Thursday afternoon, 02/01. Here’s the other head scratcher I found on the NFL site: A location is listed for drop off and pick up of Uber, Taxi’s, & Lyft but no vehicles for hire—Limo, Sprinter, Mini Bus or Motor Coach--is allowed to drop off or pick up at US Bank Stadium. I realize Super Bowl moves around, so all NFL teams get a chance to host the game—and rake in all the bucks associated with the event but, really, given the early February scheduling, why wouldn’t the NFL pick a stadium in a warmer climate than Minneapolis? Even the covered stadium doesn’t spare anyone the inhuman sub-zero temps getting there and back

ECONOMIC: (See FULL International Economic Calendar Here)

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

January 22—26, 2018 
FLU GOT ME DOWN, Sandi  Sick as a dog this past 4 days, so the Full International Economic Calendar didn’t get made. Below the best we could do.

Full International Economic Calendar can be viewed, here)
SUNDAY, 01/21

MONDAY, 01/22
IMF World Economic Outlook Press Conference (Davos)

TUESDAY, 01/23
WEC: World Economic Forum
Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Suisse thru 26tth)
Bloomberg Year Ahead & Smart Economic (Davos thru 24th)
NAFTA talks Resume (Montreal Canada)



FRIDAY, 01/26

EARNINGS: We know longer separate pre-market from after market earnings releases. We cover only the major money center banks, the largest regionals, and foreign banks traded in the US. We ignore "the" in a corporate name unless it’s integral ot the ticker.







1st Stock Trades After Options/formerly LEAPS Settle
Argus Media Americas Crude Summit @Petroleum Markets Week (Houston TX)
Winter Rheumatology Symposium (Snowmass Village CO thru 26th)
Int’l Headache Academy (Los Angeles CA thru 22nd)
Enigma: Emerging Threats & Novel Attacks (Santa Clara CA)
Men’s Haute Couture Week (Paris France)
Imprinted Sportswear (Long Beach CA)
CHA Crafts & Hobby MEGA Conference/Trade Show (Phoenix AZ thru 22nd)
DLD18 Digital Life Design (Munich Germany thru 22nd)
BioInformatics (Madeira Portugal)
AO—Australian Open Tennis Championship, 1st of 4 majors (Melbourne thru 28th)
Sundance Film & Arts Festival (Park City UT thru 28th)

Inside ETFs (Hollywood FL thru 24th)
VRC Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (Vancouver Canada thru 22nd)
RILA Retail CEO Forum (Tucson AZ thru 25th)
NDIA Winter Simulation Innovation Workshop (Orlando FL thru 26th)
Keystone Organ Crosstalk in Obesity & BioEnergetics + Metabolic Diseases Symposium (Keystone CO thru 25th)
PTC’18 Pacific Telecommunications Council (Honolulu HI thru 24th)
Fancy Foods Show (San Francisco thru 23rd)
24th Annual SAG (Screen Actors Guild) Awards (Los Angeles and TNT + TBS TV)

MONDAY, 01/22
Health Benefits
Conference/Expo (Clearwater Beach FL thru 24th)
Tour d’ALIS Americas Lodging Investment Summit (Los Angeles thru 24th)
Citi @ALIS Lodging Summit Meetings (Los Angeles)
DDP: Drug Delivery Partnerships (Palm Beach Gardens FL thru 24th)
PMWC Precision Medicine World Conference (Mountain View CA thru 24th)
World Stem Cell Summit (Miami FL thru 25th)
CleanTech Forum (San Francisco thru 24th)
Macquarie A-Share Corporate Day (NY thru 23rd)
Call Center Summit (New Orleans LA thru 25th)
SIA SnowSports Industries America (Denver CO thru 24th)
AHR (HV/AC) Expo (Chicago IL thru 24th)
FETC: Future of Education Technology Conference (Orlando thru 26th)
Women’s Haute Couture Week (Paris France thru 25th)
LSE SU Alternative Investments Conference (London thru 23rd)
Credit Suisse HK/China Analyst Relay II Showcase (Hong Kong)
European 3D Summit (Dresden Germany thru 24th)
Nike (NKE) hosting Macquarie clients at Hdqtrs (Beavertown OR)

TUESDAY, 01/23
IECI: Electric National Business Summit (Las Vegas NV thru 24th)
DistribuTECH (San Antonio TX thru 25th)
MPMC Motorsports Parts Manufacturers Media Trade Council (Santa Ana CA thru 25th)
PGA (Golf) Merchandise Show & Demo Day (Orlando FL thru 26th)
AHA (Heart) International Stroke Conference (Los Angeles thru 28th)
IC3 Int’l Capital & Cannabis Conference (Miami FL thru 24th)
World of Concrete (Las Vegas thru 26th)
Pool & Spa Show (Atlantic City NJ thru 25th)
Scotiabank Multi-Family Residential Panel (Toronto Canada)
Euromoney 20th Global Airfinance Conference (Dublin Ireland thru 25th)
Future WAN ’18, an SD-WAN
virtual summit (thru 26th)
EFI (EFII) Connect: Users Conference (Las Vegas thru 26th)
Progressive Insurance (PGR) New York Boat Show (NY thru 28th)

CFANY (formerly NYSSA) American Gas Ass’n Luncheon (NY)
CIBC 21st Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference (Whistler BC Canada thru 27th)
Int’l FCStone Coffee Futures, Options & Structured Products Risk Management Seminar (Miami FL thru 26th)
IREI VIP: Vision, Insights & Perspectives Americas (Dana Pt CA thru 28th)
Yankee Dental Congress (Boston MA thru 27th)
ASTD Tech Knowledge Conference/Expo (San Jose CA thru 26th)
Deutsche Bank dbAccess Retail Store Tour (Manchester UK thru 26th)
MGF Global Games Forum (London thru 25th)
BETT Education Technology (London thru 27th)
Citi A-Share & Connect Day (Shenzhen China thru 25th)
China Int’l Printed & Flexible Electronics + Emerging Technologies (Shanghai thru 26th)
ISPO Beijing (Beijing China thru 27th)
Microsoft (MSFT) Tech Summit (Birmingham UK thru 25th)
Philip Morris’ (PM) IQOS System with Marlboro Heatsticks, including menthol Heatsticks, (MRTPA-Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications) before FDA Tobacco Products Scientific AdCom
OSCAR Nominees Announced (Hollywood CA)

ASCO-SITC Clinical Immuno-Oncology Symposium (San Francisco thru 27th)
SNMMI Society of Cancer Research-Nuclear Medicine & Molecular Imaging Mid-Winter Meeting (Orlando thru 27th)
SurfExpo (Orlando thru 27th)
Guelph Organic Conference (Ontario Canada thru 28th)
Citi GPS: Risk Launch 2018 (London)
4th Annual Future of Healthcare Investor Forum (London)
34th IHS Display Search Japan (Tokyo thru 26th)
EGA (European Generic Ass’n) 17th Regulatory & Scientific Affairs Conference (London thru 26th)
Taco Bell (YUM) beings offering $1 Nacho Fries in the US

FRIDAY, 01/26
Food Marketing Institute Mid-Winter Executive Conference (Miami thru 29th)
School Mental Health: Treating Students K to 12 (Boston thru 27th)
American Bus Association Marketplace (Charlotte NC thru 30th)
Altria (MO), Reynolds America (RAI), Philip Morris Int’l (PM): FDA lays out approach to evaluating nicotine replacement therapies (NRT)
"Maze Runner: The Death Cure" with Rosa Salazar, Thomas Brodie-Sangster, Dylan O’Brien, Kaya Scodelario, based on the novel "The Death Cure," it’s the finale of The Maze Runner Saga, from 20th Century Fox (FOXA). "Hostiles," with Rosamund Pike, Scott Shepherd, Christian Bale, Stella Cooper, a period Western. Originally distributed to a limited number of theaters, on 12/22/17, Entertainment Studios bought US rights and is taking it wide, now. "Kickboxer: Retaliation," with Alain Moussi, Christopher Lambert, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Mike Tyson, & Sara Malakul Lane, a follow-up to "Kickboxer: Vengeance," distributed by Our House Films.

SPIE Photonics West (San Francisco thru 02/01)
Society of Cardio-Thoracic Surgeons Annual +AATS Tech-Con (Ft Lauderdale FL thru 31st)
AACR Obesity & Cancer (Austin TX thru 30th)
ASTA 58th Annual Vegetable & Flower Seed Conference (San Diego thru 30th)    

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

January 15—19, 2018  HOLIDAY WEEK WON’T FEEL LIKE ONE BY FRIDAY  Throw a dart on any day the rest of the week and you’ll find an important entry on the Economic Calendar. Some of the most important data will seep out from China & the UK, China’s growth essential to the worldwide growth & stability, the UK’s plan to exit the EU intensifying, as the clock keeps ticking. Then, there’s $135B in shorter term debt a boatload that will be easily absorbed. In addition to Jerome Powell’s appointment to head the Federal Reserve, which will be voted on, again, Wednesday, there are Evans & Kaplan speaking to Reinsurance Executives, Bk of Canada Gov Poloz and his Deputy Wilkins speaking after their monetary policy committee wraps a meeting, and the Fed’s Evans & Kaplan speaking, too, to the Reinsurance Executive Roundtable, hosted by the ACLI (American Council of Life Insurers), in Palm Beach FL, along with the Fed’s Mester on monetary policy communications, hosted by ACLI (Am. Council of Life Insurers), in a brisker New Jersey.

Some of the Economic Calendar highlights are on housing, including China’s Dec. Property/House Prices, and the US’s NAHB Jan Housing Market Index, & Dec Housing Starts/Building Permits, along with the UK’s Dec RICS House Price balance. And, dare we say it, OPEC’s release of its monthly Oil Market Report, Thursday, when both Crude & Natural Gas will be released by the EIA, Monday’s holiday pushing crude stats out by one day. Also out Thursday, China’s 17Q4 GDP, Dec. Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, and Industrial Production. Wed. we’ll get the US Dec Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, snow storms likely to push up utility production, a large part of IP & CU every month.

And overhanging it all is the midnight, Friday, Jan 19th deadline for Congress to fund the government, or risk a government shutdown, which Trump said, at one time, might be good for the country. Really? They lock workers out of office buildings, send them home to nervously plot how to pay bills, without a paycheck coming in, all to collect back pay for days no one worked, once the "shut down" is over. And with a President as erratic as Trump, for all we know, he’ll make the funds for building the southern wall to block off Mexico a prerequisite for his signature on whatever continuing resolution or budget Congress sends to him. The Pope will be visiting South America this week, perhaps he’d like to put in a good word for hard working Americans, who fear the world is going to h—in a hand basket. Friday is notable for another deadline—the last day to trade January options that started as LEAPs up to 3 years ago. Those new to the market may not realize how recently weekly options were added, so not familiar with LEAPS that started trading as long ago as 2014.

The Earnings Calendar is, once again, dominated by financials, including Citigroup, Bk of America, Goldman Sachs, US Bank, American Express, Bk of New York Mellon, BB&T, KeyBanc, Morgan Stanley, Citizens Financial, Regions Financial, SunTrust, & Synchrony. A finance line up every bit as influential as last week’s. And if that weren’t enough, there’s CSX, Canadian Pacific & Kansas City Southern, teed up to report, along with UnitedHealth, Kinder Morgan, PPG, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Schlumberger, each a heavy weight in its sector.

Which brings us to the Events Calendar, well stocked this week, too. Start with NAIAS, the North American International Auto Show, put on by the Auto Industry, with related events from IEEE (Electrical Engineers), Automotive News World Congress at NAIAS, Deutsche Bank 2018 Global Auto Industry Conference, and IHS Markit Annual Briefing @NAIAS. Markit owns J D Power but the Power auto event is not concurrent with this week’s. However, the European Auto Salon takes place in Brussels, Belgium, starting Sunday, putting autos at the center of 2 continents.

Another, literally big show is the NRF BIG Show, in NY, which is more about the physical shop and processes than a fashion show. At BIG Show, one can order hangers and price tickets but not the clothes on which they’ll hang. Jefferies Winter Consumer Summit includes apparel manufacturers & sellers along with hotels & restaurants. Oddly enough, news out of SIHH Luxury Watch—Haute Horlogerie could trump some bigger events because the state of the high end watch industry has become a serious datapoint for deciphering the penetration of smart watches & other wearable technology, even as what’s going on at the very top of the luxury watch market says a lot about the spending by wealthy people, as well as those who must answer to the state, like wealthy Chinese buyers.

Also Sunday, Southern Seed, Plant & Animal Genome XXVI, Clinical Dermatology, and an S&P Global Platts Aluminum Symposium, along with Heart Failure, Retina, and State of the Brain. Monday, while markets were closed, Jefferies opened its 7th Winter Consumer Summit, Sunday, while ISS runs Semi Strategy Symposium, and ISS Strategic Materials Conference. Both meet at Half Moon Bay CA. NATPE (Nat’l Ass’n of TV Programming Execs) gets a lot of attention, as billions of advertising moves from TV to the small screen of mobile phones. MoffetNathanson is just one I-bank hosting clients at NATPE.

Another multi-leg event is Argus Media’s Petroleum Week which includes Americas Crude Summit, America’s LPG Summit, and America’s Motor Fuels Summit, all in Houston TX. Wolfe Research is hosting a "Thunder & Lightning" tour around Tulsa & Oklahoma City, visiting WPX energy, Devon Energy, Gulfport Energy, and Continental Resources. Wednesday, Peters & Co starts its Winter Energy Conference, in Alberta, while RBC is just one of 2 I-banks hosting Private Company Energy Conferences. The other is Credit Suisse. Wolfe also hosts an Oil & Gas Earnings Preview Lunch, Thursday.

It’ll be a busy week that won’t feel "shortened," by any stretch of the imagination. The fact that financials, again, dominate the Earning Calendar takes the spotlight off the reported earnings, to shine brightly on the out quarters. Based on last week’s reports, expect near term write downs and charges required by the tax cut bill, though reserves for taxes will be far lower, going forward, sprucing up the future bottom line. Rails, PPG, and Taiwan Semiconductor offer less history, since last week wasn’t populated by peers. Still, with companies benefiting the most from the tax cut bill passed, there’s reason to expect forecasts that won’t upset anyone. (We won’t discuss how hard hit the same companies may look next year, when they’re comping against one time adjustments from this year, because there’ll be plenty of time for that. Bear in mind, the $1k employee bonuses announced recently are all one-off, which leaves workers with lower income, next year. When reality catches up with the calendar, employees will look shafted, while companies will look like the big beneficiaries they are, indeed.) What might start upsetting the market is the cost of gasoline at the pump, which is rising everywhere, not nearly caught up with the price of a barrel of crude, at recent times. Some retailers will complain about refunds arriving late, the IRS not even accepting tax filings until Jan 29th.

Last week’s huge gains were surprising. Expect a period of consolidation, at the least. I will personally being going farther, by looking for ways I can actively protect my gains.

ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)  

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the authors, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

January 08—12, 2018  
EARNINGS SEASON SNUCK UP ON US    For all the hooplah around "Fire & Fury: Inside the Trump White House," Michael Wolff’s book on the Trump White House, neither the book nor the New York Magazine with an excerpt were available at the local Barnes & Noble. And that’s why the chain is likely to go 6 feet under—even the one here, directly across the street from the entrance to FAU. And there was no help to help, so when I looked up the book on the "help desk" computer, I was mistaken for an employee, and asked to look up Fire & Fury, about seven times before the computer return the message that it won’t be in until 01/09, the disk 3 days later.

There are 3 major events, this week, that will dominate the newsfeed: CES (Consumer Electronics Show), JPMorgan Healthcare, and ICR Conference, the latter with separate schedules for public and non-public companies. What’s remarkable is the number of I-bank events scheduled around all 3 events, in a last throwback to the mid-90’s, and COMDEX, when those in-the-know could time options purchases on Microsoft and, (back then), Compaq, timed to capitalize on the dinners Goldman Sachs would host on successive days, and the upgrades for each of them that arrived like clock work the day after the dinner at which each starred. And back then, it was not only Goldie’s dinners, cocktail parties, and morning after upgrades that made COMDEX such a tradable event, but the dates of COMDEX itself, when there was no internet to search. In fact, Wall Street In Advance began as a full year’s printed calendar, the top events neatly featured on the days those events started. At one time, COMDEX was bigger than everything.

CES Intel CEO Krzanich delivers the Keynote on Monday, while nVidia keynotes Sunday night, before Intel. NVDA wowed in 2017, talking about its autonomous cars & AI that needs its chips. INTC can no longer pretend it has nothing to fear from NVDA, as the latter has successfully convinced investors and analysts that it moved from graphics chips to chips that power servers, autonomous vehicles and AI. Ironically, Intel is expected to roll out lots of new chips, at CES, especially high end ones for laptops & gaming but including a chipset that includes an AMD graphics chip—a rare collaboration between the two, on the I7 CPU that incorporates an AMD Radeon GPU chip, suggesting how serious INTC is about matching and surpassing NVDA. Some are eager to hear what CEO Krzanich plans in AR/VR after it shut down Project Alloy, its VR headset project. INTC does have a project to stream MLB games in VR. FCC Chairman Ajit Pai canceled his scheduled appearance at CES, citing death threats. JPM & Citi host events at CES.

Many retailers & apparel/shoe manufacturers, restaurants & leisure parks will be updating their Qtr outlook at the 20th ICR, this week. I.e. Kohl’s CEO Kevin Mansell is scheduled to keynote at noon, on the 9th, updating its holiday sales guidance. It won’t be alone, Others not appearing at ICR, like Tiffany, schedule a separate holiday (November/ December) sales update, for TIF, on Jan 17th. (While the timing for TIF’s call hasn’t been announced, yet, 8:30am is when it hosts earnings conference calls.) The best way to gauge when holiday sales updates will arrive, short of looking up every company individually, would be to load the ICR Conference
presentation schedule, and assume every company on the agenda plans to update holiday sales, on the 8th or 9th. Private companies present on the 10th. There’s one track for retailers, on the 8th, in the morning, that starts with SEAS, moves to ASNA, CROX, LE, LULU, CHS, before the luncheon keynote. On a separate track, it’s restaurants: RUTH, CHUY, FOGO, RRGB, TACO. I-banks like Citi are hosting clients here, too. ICR is the meeting that has the most satellite meetings of I-banks and their clients, including Wells Fargo, Citi, Raymond James, and more

And then, there’s the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, that attracts more "satellite" events than any other, throughout the year. Even Leerink, one of the most respected Biotech I-banks schedules events to coincide with JPM.

Normally, I’d be pointing out all the Fed Reserve speakers, this week but with a new sheriff coming to town, I feel about those events the way I did about last week’s Fed minutes from its Dec meeting—new voters and a new chief made the minutes of little interest. But, with the two doves who dissented against the rate rise in Dec leaving the voting panel, and at least one emphatic hawk getting a vote in 2018—Loretta Mester—we’re all in the dark until we’ve seen a couple of meetings, and the minutes that result. John Williams, also joining the voting in Feb., is more hawkish than the rest of the FOMC except Mester. Mester spoke of 3, or even 4 hikes this year, while Williams seemed to endorse the 3 already planned by the SEP (Member projections last released in Dec.) And let’s not forget that NY Fed Pres/CEO William Dudley is leaving this year, probably by the summer, which might be additional discomfort, as the Powell/ Quarles FOMC unfolds. Then again, Bostic is a newbie, speaking on Monday but talks to Rotary Clubs rarely are a setting for policy position speeches. And so it’s said, Yellen has said she’ll leave when her successor is sworn in. Everyone assumes that will be AFTER the Jan 30—31 meeting, on Feb 3rd, when her first and only term will end. But who’s to say Trump won’t see to Powell’s swearing in, sooner, ending Yellen’s term faster than expected—fast enough to put Powell in the chair at the head of the table, by the late January meeting.

Bits & Pieces: NAHB, the Nat’l Association of Homebuilders assembles for its annual show, starting Tuesday, which is the day Goldman Sachs is hosting a Global Energy Conference, both, coincidentally, in Florida which makes them attractive getaways after last week’s Bombcyclone. Pfizer said, Saturday, it will stop searching for drugs to treat Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s Disease, giving up a fight that has cost so much and delivered so little. If Disney looks soft, that might be because "Star War: The Last Jedi" opened to very underwhelming ticket sales, in China ($28.7m over the weekend). The two Koreas are meeting this week, though I can’t imagine what will come of it: A promise not to bomb each other, when the North Korean midget wants to bomb the US? The Treasury is offering a boatload of debt, this week, and what bothers me is the amount of 3-, & 6-month debt on offer, every month, even as rates are rising and being pushed higher by the FOMC, elevating the costs to service that debt. At one time, Treas Sec’y Mnuchin seemed to favor really, really, long term debt, of the 50-year & 100 year really long but, instead, $90B of debt on offer this week will mature by summer, while 3-year Notes will amount to just $24B, 10-year $20B, and 30-year a mere $12B, the latter 2 reopenings.

And then, Earnings Season begins this week, Friday a huge day because BlackRock, JPMorgan, PNC, and Wells Fargo reporting, at the end of a week that will have, also, included Delta Airlines, K B Homes, and Lennar. And watch out for CY17 Economic Data, because the Dec. Employment Report was soft.

ECONOMIC: (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)

Sandi Lynne 2018 Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

January 01—05, 2018
MORE PROFIT-TAKING TO START? Typically, the first few days of a new year start with some selling, as gains or losses were delayed until the new year. The balance switches after the December Employment Report is issues, late in the week, which also coincides with retail investors sending more funds to their mutual funds, which helps offset the selling.

Watch also the amount of principal the Federal Reserve allows to run-off without reimbursement because it doubles, as of this month, through Q1. For this Quarter, the amount that will be allowed to run off without reinvestment is double the amount of Treasuries & Agency MBS run off since the bank first started to hold back some reinvestment, in October. $12B in Treasuries & $8B in Agency MBS.
Addendum here.)

Daiwa P.U.R.E. Energy stands for Power, Utilities, Renewables & Environment., the first conference of the year (Hong Kong thru 5th). The one to watch, however, is the American Economic Association’s Annual Meeting, at which central bankers are the stars. In fact, time was the first week after the New Year was flush with major I-bank events but that’s not true this year. The Biggie is AEA, concurrent with ASSA (Allied Social Science Association) Annual. Rarely have central bankers been out in such a heavy presence so soon after the New Year celebration, and they’ll remain out through next weekend.

The call for this week, more selling than seen to end the year, which won’t be nearly offset by fresh funds flooding into the market & mutual funds, at least not until late in the week, coincident with the December Unemployment Report.

ECONOMIC:  (Highlights, only, below. Full International Economic Calendar here)

Sandi Lynne Nothing contained in this commentary should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are the author’s, alone, and should be just one factor in more complete due diligence.

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