wall street in advance

January 2020  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

TUESDAYS:
                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
(4:30p.m.)
    WEDNESDAYS:
                
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
    THURSDAYS:
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Dec 29 South Korea Nov Industrial Production, Service Sector Output, Retail Sales
Russia Dec Markit Manufacturing PMI
German Nov Retail Sales
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
       Japan Oct Vehicle Production
       Swiss KOF Dec Leading Indicators
       Bk of Italy Q3 Credit Conditions & Risk
       Spanish Q3 GDP, Dec. CPI, HICP, Current Account
       Hong Kong Nov Trade Balance
       UK BBA Nov Loans for House Purchase
       Brazil Nov Budget  Balance
Monday,   Dec 30 US Nov Int''l Trade Deficit
US Nov Wholesale Inventories
US Nov Retail Inventories
Chicago Dec. Manufacturing PMI
NAR Nov Pending Home Sales

FRB Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:

        South Korea Jan Manufacturing BSI Index, Dec CPI
        Singapore Nov Bank Lending
        China Dec Manufacturing/non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
        RBI (India) Monetary & Credit Information Review
Tuesday,  Dec 31 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
S&P Case Shiller CoreLogic Oct 20-city Home Price Index
FHFA Oct House Price Index

Conference Board's Final Dec. Consumer Confidence/Expectations
SIFMA-controlled Markets (Bonds) Close 2pm et
Equity Markets Open until 4pm et

Wed. January 01
         2020
Happy New Year 2020!
Global Markets Closed
28 U.S. States Raise their Minimum Wage
(FL by all of 10c p/hour)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:

        UK Markit Dec Manufacturing PMI
        Ward's Dec US Vehicle Sales
Thurs,      Jan 02 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Canada RBC Dec Manufacturing PMI
Fiat Chrsyler should release Dec Vehicle Sales
US Markit Dec Manufacturing PMI

Mexico Markit Dec Manufacturing PMI
Brazil Dec Trade Balance
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (value not announced at post)
Most Global Markets Closed for Boxing Day, Japan Closed rest of week
US Markets Open
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et

        Aussie Dec Manufacturing PMI & AiG Services Index
        South Korea Dec Trade Balance
        Singapore Q4 GDP, URA Property Index, Dec Manufacturing PMI
        China Caixin Dec Manufacturing PMI
        Hong Kong Nov Retail Sales

        India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth
        UK BRC Dec Shop Price Index, Nationwide House Price Index
        Swiss Dec Manufacturing PMI, procure.ch Dec PMI
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Markit Dec Manufacturing PMI
        Spain Unemployment Rate/Change
        German Dec Unemployment Rate/Claims
        BoE Nov Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals,
Markit/CIPS Dec Construction PMI
        German & Italian Dec CPI, HICP
Friday,     Jan 03 US Dec Manufacturing ISM/Prices Paid/Orders/Shipments/Employment
US Nov Construction Spending
IMF on Designing Central Bank Digital Currencies @ASSA/AEA Annual (San Diego)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 12/22)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (w/e 12/22)
Baker-Hughes weekly North American/US Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed Gov Brainard panelist with Fed's Evans, Daly, BoC's Wilkins, & BoE's Breeden on Women in Central Banking (ASSAAEA San Diego 10:15am pst)
FOMC Minutes of Dec 10--11, 2019 Meeting (2pm et)
Fed's Kaplan & Daly panelists @AEA on Navigating Crosscurrents: The Outlook for the Global Economy (San Diego 12:50pm pst)
Janet Yellen speaks on 'How Can Economics Solve Its Race Problem?' (2:30pm pst AEA)
                                              
Saturday, Jan 04
S.F. Fed's Daly panelist @ASSA Annual on Corporate Culture & Banking (10:15am pst)
Sunday,    Jan 05 German Nov Retail Sales
Janet Yellen, Olivier Blanchard, Lawrence Summers, & Adam Posen panelists on "Japanification, Secular Stagnation, and Fiscal & Monetary Policy Challenges" (8am pst @AEA San Diego)
NY Fed Pres Williams, BoE's Broadbent, ECB's Lane, BoJ's Wakatabe, + BoC's Wilkins panelsts @AEA "Monetary Policy Frameworks in a World of Low Interest Rates" (10:15am pst @AEA) Also starting 10:15am pst, a dissection of FOMC transcripts
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Dec Performance of Mnftg Index, CBA Services/Composite PMI
        Japan Nikkei Dec Manufacturing PMI, Dec Vehicle Sales
       
Hong Kong Dec Manufacturing PMI
        China Caixin Dec Services/Composite PMI, Fx Reserves
       
India Nikkei Dec Services PMI
        South Africa Standard Bank Dec Manufacturing PMI
        Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Dec Services/Composite PMI
        UK Dec New Car Registrations

        Eurozone Jan Sentix Investor Confidence, Nov PPI
        UK Markit/CIPS Dec Services/Composite PMI, Official Int'l Reserves
        Brazil Markit Dec Services/Composite PMI
Monday,   Jan 06 Canada Nov Raw Materials Price Index, IPPI  (8:30am et)
US Markit Dec Services/Composite PMI
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Monetary Base, Nov Loans, Jibun Bank Dec Services/Composite PMI
        South Korea Nov Current Account
        Hong Kong Dec Fx Reserves
        Singapore Dec Fx Reserves
        Swiss Dec CPI, HICP
        Eurozone Dec CPI, Nov Retail Sales  
        ECB releases Harmonised Competitiveness Indicators (10:00 cet)      
        Brazil IPC-Fipe Dec Inflation Index
        Souh Africa Dec Total Vehicle Sales
Tuesday   Jan 07 US Nov Trade Balance (8:30am et)
Canada Nov Int'l Merchandise Trade, Ivey Dec PMI
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Brazil Dec Auto Production/Sales
US Dec Non-Manufacturing/Services/Comsposite ISM (10am et)
US Nov (F) Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
US Nov Factory Orders
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes
(1pm et)
Russia Christmas Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Dec QV House Prices
        Aussie AiG Dec Performance of Construction Index. RBA Chart Pack Release
        Japan Nov Labor Cash Earnings
        Aussie Nov Building Approvals, Job Vacancies
        New Zealand Dec REINZ House Sales
        Japan Dec Consumer Confidence Index
        French Nov Trade Balance, Fx Reserves
        German Nov Factory Orders
        UK Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Halifax Dec House Price Index
        Eurozone Dec Business, Consumer, Economic, Industrial, Services Confidence
        ECB's de Guindos
speaks on "Europe's role in the global financial system" @Forging a new future between the UK & EU Conference organized by SUERF & de Nederlandsche Bank (Amsterdam NL 14:00 cet)
Wed.        Jan 08 US MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
ADP Dec Employment Data
Fede Gov Brainard on "Modernizing the Community Reinvestment Act" @Urban Institute (D.C. 10am streamed)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (w/e 01/03;   10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
US Nov Consumer Credit (Debt, really; 3pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        New Zealand ANZ Dec Commodity Prices, Heavy Truckometer
        UK BRC Dec Like-for-Like Sales
        Aussie Nov Trade Balance
        China Dec CPI, PPI
        Swiss Q4 Family Homes Real Estate Index
        China Dec New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing
        SNB (swiss Nat'l Bank) preliminary annual result data
        German Nov Imports/Exports/Current Account
        Swiss Nov Retail Sales, Dec Fx Reserves
        Eurozone Nov Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
        Brazil Nov Industrial Production
        Mexico Dec CPI
        BoE Gov Carney opens "Future of Inflation Targeting Conf." (BoE, London 16:45 cet)
        ECB Account of Last Monetary Policy Meeting
Thurs.      Jan 09 US Dec Challenger Job Cuts   (7:30am et)
Fed V Chair Clarida on "U.S. Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy" @Council on Foreign Relations C.Peter McColough Series on Int'l Economics (NY 8am et)
Canada Dec Housing Starts/Nov Building Permits
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Revisions to Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
US Dec. Chain Store Sales (9 that still report monthly)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 01/03; 10:30am et)
Bk of Canada post-Meeting Statement & Gov Poloz Press Conference
Fed's Williams speaks
@BoE "Future of Inflation Targeting Conf." (London 11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et -Values not announced at post)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds
Fed's Bullard speaks to Wisconsin Bankers
Ass'n Economic Forecast Luncheon (Madison)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Dec Performance of Service Index, Nov Retail Sales
        Japan Nov Household Spending
        Singapore Nov REtail Sales
        China Dec Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
        Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate/Change
        French & Italian Nov Industrial Production
        India Nov Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output
        UK Nov Construction Output, Industrial Production, Mnftg Production, Monthly GDP, Trade Balance, Index of Services
        Brtazil Dec CPI, IPCA Inflation Index SA
        ECB publishes Euro area Qtrly balance of payments & int'l investment position
        Mexico Nov Indstrial Production
        BoE's Tenreyro speaks @Resolution Foundation (London)
Friday,     Jan 10 US Dec Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Hrly Wages (8:30am et)
Canada Dec Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Part-/Full-Time/Wage Rate
US Nov Wholesale Inventories & Trade Sales (10am et)
US WASDE Report
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Saturday, Jan 11
                                                     
          WEEKS AHEAD:
  01/15    China's V. Premier Liu He expected in US to sign Phase 1 Trade Deal (So. China Morning Post reported 12/29)
                                                        Fed's Beige Book released
                                           01/20     Martin Luther King Jr Holiday Celebrated (ALL U.S. Markets Closed)
                                           01/23    Bk of Japan Meets
                                           01/24    ECB Meets
                                    01/29--30    FOMC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price