wall street in advance

September 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,   Sept 15     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et
        New Zealand Aug Performance of Services
        UK Rightmove Sept House Prices
        China Aug Industrial Production, Fixed Assets Investment, Aug Retail Sales, Jobless Rate, Property Investment
        Italian Aug CPI, HICP
        Russia CBR Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
       ECB's Couere opens BIS G7Global Stablecoins Conference (8:45cet Basel, Suisse)
        63rd IAEA (Atomic Energy) General Conference (Vienna Austria thru 20th)
        Irish FinMin Donohose addresses "Brexit, the Irish Economy & the Future of European Fintech" (Dublin Ireland)
        Britian's anti-Brexit Liberal Democrat Party Annual Conference (London)
Monday,  Sept 16 ECB's Lane keynotes Bloomberg London  (14:00cet)
Empire State NY Fed Sept Manufacturing Survey (8:30am et)
Canada Jul Int'l Securities Transactions
Bahrain Crown Prince Salmon bin Hamad al-Khairfa visits White House
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills  (11:30am et)
ECB's Lautenschlager panelist at BIS G7 Global Stablecoins (18:00cet)
Japanese Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         Japan Aug Dept Store Sales
         China Aug New Home Prices
         Singapore Aug Trade Balance
         Aussie Q2 House Price Index
         RBA (Aussie) Minutes of Sept Policy Meeting
         Swiss SECO Sept Economic Forecasts
         Hong Kong Aug Unemployment Report (Protests impact)
         German ZEW Sept Current Situation/Expectations/Sentiment
         Eurozone Sept ZEW Current Situation/Expectations/Sentiment
Tuesday   Sept 17 Canada Jul Manufacturing Sales
ECB's Enria presents at Forum Analysis (Milan Italy 13:00 cet)
Redook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
US Aug. Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
NAHB Sept Housing Market Index
United Nations pre-General Assembly Events
(NY thru 24th)
ECB's Lane & Couere panelists @Future of the International Monetary System," via Banque Central du Luxembour/Toulouse School of Economics (18:35 cet Luxembourg)
US July TICS (4pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Q2 GDP-to-Current Account
         Japan Aug Trade Balance
         China Aug Swift Global Payments
         South Korea Aug PPI, IPPI (Import Price Index)
         EU 25 Aug New Car Registrations
         UK Jul New Car Registrations, Aug CPI, PPI, CPIH, Retail Price Index, Jul House Price Index

         South Africa Aug CPI
         Italian Jul Trade Balance
         Eurozone Jul Construction Output, Aug CPI, HICP
         ECB's de Guindos speaks @Foro Tendencias Espana 2020," via Prisa & Kreab (Madrid Spain 12:50 cet)
        French Pres. Macron visits Italian Pres. Mattarella & P.M. Conte (Rome)
Wed.,        Sept 18 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
US Aug Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
Canada Aug CPI
Facebook, Google, Twitter testify @Senate Commerce Cmte on Social Media's to- date weakness in stopping broadcast of violence/inappropriate uses of social media
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et;  w/e 09/12)
U.N. Sec'y-Gen Antonion Gutterres news conference pre-U.N. world leaders gathering
Brazil MPC Interest Rate Decision, Fx Flows
FOMC Meeting Statement on Interest Rates & Updated Member Forecasts (2pm et)
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
       New Zealand Q2 GDP
       China Aug Fx Net Settlement
       BoJ (Japan) MPC Interest Rate Decision (09/19 local time)
       Aussie Aug Unemployment Rate/Change/Full/Part-time/Participation, Fx Transactions
       Japan Jul All Industry Activity Index
       Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Interest Rate Decisions (09/19 local time)
       Swiss Aug Trade Balance/Watch Exports
       UK CBI Sept Total Orders & Selling Price Trends
      SNB MPC Interest Rate Decision on Deposits & Loans/Reserves (09/19 local time)
       Eurozone Jul Current Account
       UK Aug Retail Sales
       ECB's Couere panelist @SAFE "Safeguarding the Euro--The European Stability Mechanism" (Frankfurt DE 12:00 cet)
       BoE MPC Sept Interest Rate Decision/QE Target/Meeting Minutes (12:00gmt)
       BoE Chief Carney Press Conference

Thurs.      Sept 19 ECB's Lautenschlager @ C. Peter McColough Series on Int'l Economics via Council on Foreign Relations (8am et NY)
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et)
Canada ADP Aug Payroll Estimate, Teranet/National Bank HPI.
Philly Fed Sept Business Outlook Survey/Employment/Orders/Prices Paid
US Q2 Current Account
South Africa MPC Sept Prime & Interest Rate Decisions
IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath keynotes 4th IMF/Atlanta Fed Workshop: China in the Global Economy (Atlanta thru 20th)
V.P. Mike Pence & SEC Chair Jay Clayton speak @Delivering Alpha   (NY/CNBC/ Institutional Investor)
US Aug Existing Home Sales (10am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; value not announced at post)
US Treasury Auctions $12B reopened 10-year TIPS (1pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Japan Aug CPI,
Supermarket Sales, Convenience Store Sales, BoJ Q2 Money Flows
        Swiss KOF Institute Autumn Economic Forecast
        China Sept 1-year Loan Prime Rate, 5-year Loan Prime Rate
        New Zealand Aug Card Spending
        German Aug PPI
        Hong Kong Aug CPI
        BoE Quarterly Bulletin,
Aug Public Sector Borrowing
        India Fx Reserves, Current Account
Friday,     Sept 20 Canada Jul Retail SAles
Quadruple Witch Quarterly Single Stock & Index Options & Futures Expire
NY Fed's Williams
on "Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates" @SNB Research Conf. on "New Normal Monetary Policy Frameworks" (Zurich Suisse 8:15am)
Australia P.M. Scott Morrison welcomed at White House
Fed's Rosengren speaks on economy & monetary policy NYU Stern School conference on credit markets  (11:20am et  NY)
Fed Z1 Q2 Financial Accounts of the US/Household Net Worth (noon et)
Brazil Federal Tax Revenue, CAGED Net Payroll Jobs
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Saturday, Sept 21 Indian P.M. Modi visits the US (to 09/27)
Sunday,   Sept 22     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie Sept Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI
         Japan Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI, Jibun Bk Services & Composite PMI
         German Aug Import Prices
         Markit Eurozone, French, German Sept Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMI
         UK CBI Sept Selling Price & Industrial Orders/Trends
         German Buba Monthly Report
         ECB release "Domestic vs foreign factors behind fall in euro area industrial production" (10cet)
         Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
         ECB Chief Draghi statement before Cmte Hearing on Economic & Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (Brussels Belgium 15:00 cet)
         SIBOS in London (SWIFT -Secure Payment/Messaging System for Central Banks and biggest members of Financial Industry- London thru 26th)
Monday,  Sept 23 Canada Jul Wholsale Trade/Sales
Chicago Fed Sept National Activity Index (8:30am et)
US Markit Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI  8:45am et)
Brazil Aug Current Account, Foreign Direct Investment
NY Fed's Williams speaks at JT US Treasury Market Conference from US Treas/FRB Bd of Gov/SEC/CFTC Conference (9:50am et NY)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Bullard on US Eco & Monetary Policy w/Q&A+media (Effingham IL 1pm et)
ECB's Lane dinner speech @ECB Conference on "Inflation in a Changing Economic Environment" (Frankfurt 19:00cet)
S.F. Fed's Daly speaks on "Supporting Economic Opportunity in America's Urban & Rural Communities" @Salem Community Leaders Lunch (2:30pm et Salem OR)
Japan Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        South Korea Aug PPI
        RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Interest Rate/QE Decision (09/24 local time)
        BoJ Gov Kuroda speaks (Osaka)
        RBNZ post-Meeting Press Conference
        German IFO Sept Current Assessment/Expectations/Outlook
        UK Aug Public Sector Borrowing, Central Gov't NCR, Public Finances
        RBA (Aussie) Gov Lowe speaks (Armidale)
        ECB's de Guindos opens ECB Money Market Contact Group Mtg (14:00cet), then closes the event (16:30cet Frankfurt)
         BoE's Gerken speaks @Bk of America Merrill Lynch 24th Annual Financial CEO Conference (London)
         BoE's Cleland panelist on "UK Payments Community" @SIBOS (London)
Tuesday,  Sept 24 Redbook weekly store sales snapsho   (8:55am et)
S&P-Case/Shilller Jul 20-city Home Price Index (9am et)
FHFA Jul House Price Index
Conference Board's Sept Consumer Confidence/Expectations (10am et)
Brazil Aug PPI, BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Richmond Fed Sept Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
South Africa Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Aug Trade Balance
         BoJ Minutes of July Policy Meeting, BoJ's Masai speaks (Mie, Japan)
         Japan Aug Corporate Services Price Index
         German GfK Oct Consumer Confidence
         ECB's Couere opens a roundtable on euro risk-free rates (Frankfurt 9:00cet)
         Credit Suisse Swiss Sept Expectations Survey
         Swiss Sept ZEW Conditions/Expectations
         So. Africa (SARB) Quarterly Bulletin
         UK Sept CBI Reported Sales/Total Distributed Sales, Aug BBA Mortgage Approvals
         ECB's Lautenschlager participates in Big Issue Debate on Cybersecurity @SIBOS (London 12:00cet)
         French Jobseekers
         ECB's Couere particpates in hearing of the Digital Agenda Cmte of German Bundestag (Berlin DE 16:00 cet)
Wed.        Sept 25 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
SNB (Swiss) Quarterly Bulletin
Fed's Evans speaks on Eco outlook & monetary policy w/Q&A+media @Lake Forest Rotary Club Eco Breakfast (8am et Lake Forest IL)
US Aug. New Home Sales (10am et)
Fed Gov Brainard testifies @House FinServices SubCmte on Consumer Protection & Financial Institutions (D.C.)
Brazil Banking Lending , Fx Flows
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am etl  w/e 09/20)
Atlanta FRB/Chicago Booth Biz School/Stanford Univ weekly Survey of Business Uncertainty (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $18B reopened 2-year FRN (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        So., Korea BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting (estimate)
        Singapore Aug Industrial Production
        Fed's Kaplan participant @Dallas Biusiness Club Economic Update w/Q&A (Dallas TX; 7pm)
        China Q2 Current Account Balance
        German Aug Retail Sales
        Italy Jul Trade Balance
        Japan Aug Machine Tool Orders
        BoJ Gov Kuroda speaks
        Hong Kong Aug Trade Balance
        ECB Economic Bulletin (10:00 cet)
        Monetary Developments in the euro area published + Nat'l balance sheet of euro area monetary financial institutions, ex-Eurosystem
       Agricultural Bank of China presents @SIBOS on Strengthening Connections to China through ABC: Introduction of RMB Clearing, CIBM, & SH-LTN Connect Service
        Canada CFIB Sept Business Barometer
Thurs,      Sept 26 US Q2 Final GDP/PCE (8:30am et)
US Aug Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
ECB Chief Draghi welcome address (15:30cet), BoE's Cunliffe, and ECB's Enria keynotes on "Future of Stress Testing" (17:15 cet) @4th ESRB [European Systemic Risk Board) Annual Conference (Frankfurt thru 27th)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Brazil BCB Inflation Report, Nat'l Monetary Council Meets
US Q2 Final Corporate Profits
US Aug Retail & Wholesale (Adv) Inventories
Fed's Kaplan
opens Dallas Fed Conference on Trade & Immigration in No Am. w/Q&A (Dallas TX 9:30am et)
BoE Gov Carney on Financial Services (Frankfurt Germany 9:45am et)
Fed's Bullard opens "Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minorities in Banking" (10am et St Louis MO FRB)
NAR Aug Pending Home Sales
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am et/ w/e 09/20)
K.C. Fed Sept Manufacturing Index  (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; value not available at post)
Fed's Daly opens "Fed Listens: San Francisco" event (11:45am et; San Francisco CA)
Fed Gov Clarida "The Federal Reserve's Review of its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools & Communication Practices" @FRB San Francisco (11:45am streamed here)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
Bk of Mexico MPC Rate Decision
MN Fed's Kashkari
@Town Hall (Billings MT 2pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        UK GfK Sept Consumer Confidence

        Japan/Tokyo Sept CPI 
        China Aug Industrial Profits
        French Aug Consumer Spending, PPI, CPI
        Italy Sept PPI, CPI, Business & Consumer Confidence
        UK Sept Nationwide House Price Index
        Eurozone Sept Business, Industrial, Services, Consumer Confidence
        ECB's de Guindos chairs panel "Experiences with macroprudential policies" @4th ESRB Annual Conference (9:15 cet)
        BoE's Saunders speaks @Barnsley & Rotherham Chamber of Commerce & Institute of Chartered Accountants Barnelsy
Friday,     Sept 27 US Aug Durable Goods--Capital Goods Orders/Shipments (8:30am et)
Fed V.Chair Quarles on "Macroprudential Regulation" @Georgetown Unv Law Center's "Law & Macroeconomics" Conference (D.C. 8:30am et streamed here)
US Aug Personal Income/Spending/PCE
U.M. (final) Sept Consumer Sentiment/Outlook  (10am et)
Fed's Harker on "Strategies for Promoting the Fed's Independence & Accountability"  @Shadow Open Market Cmte Fall 2019 Mtg" (NY noon et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 09/20)
USDA Farm Prices (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
         India Q2 Current Account
         Canada Jul Budget Balance
Saturday, Sept 28
ECB's Lautenschlager dinner speech @13th Luxembourg Expert Forum on the Development of Union Law organized by ECJ (EU Court of Justice, Luxembourg  20:00cet)
10/01   RBA (Aussie) MPC Meets
                                      10/09    Fed Minutes of Sept 18 Ended Meeting (estimated date)
                                      10/24    ECB MPC Meets (a week pre-Brexit)
                                                   Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
                                10/29--30   FOMC 2-day Meeting
                                      10/30    FOMC Rate Decision

                                                   BoC (Canada) MPC Rate Decision
                                      10/31    BoJ MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price