wall street in advance

August 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Aug 18     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Q2 PPI + PPI Output, & July Performance of Services Index
        Japan Aug Tankan Index, Jul Trade Balance, Dept Store Sales, Tokyo Condo Sales
        China July Fx Net Settlement
        Germany's Merkel meets with Iceland's P.M. & Nordic PM's Reykjavik
        UK Aug. Rightmove House Prices, CBI Selling & Order Trends/Prices
        Eurozone Jun Current Account, July CPI/HICP
        Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Federal Tax Revenue
        Russia Jul Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales, Monthly GDP
        French Pres. Macron meets with Russia's Pres. Putin
Monday,   Aug 19 Deadline to end Transactions with Huawei EXTENDED 90 Days
Q2 US eCommerce Retail Sales
  (10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet's Google, testify @US Congress on French 3% Digital Service Tax (tax commences 10/01/19)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        China sets NEW Monthly Lending Rate (this is the first, ever, 8/20 local time)
        Hong Kong CPI
        RBA (Aussie) Minutes of Aug MPC Meeting
        German Jul PPI
        Swiss July Trade Balance includes Watch Exports
        Japan Jul Convenience Store Sales
        Eurozone Jun Construction Output
Tuesday,  Aug 20 Canada Jun Manufacturing Sales, Jul Teranet/National Bank HPI
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Brazil CAGED Net Payroll Jobs
Trump welcomes Romanian Pres Iohannis to the White House (D.C.)
Fed V. Chairman Quarles on Community Development @Celebration for Utah Ctr for Neighborhood Stabiliation 10th Anniversary (Salt Lake City UT 6pm et)
    OVERNIGHT iinto US Wed. a.m. et:
        South Korea Jul PPI
        New Zealand Jul Credit Card Spending
        Spanish Trade Balance
        South Africa Jul CPI
        UK Jul Public Finances, Public Sector Net Borrowing, Central Gov't NCR
Wed.,        Aug 21 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
Canada Jul CPI
US July Existing Home Sales (10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et)
Canadian P.M. Trudaeu Foreign Affairs Speech (Paris France)
FOMC Minutes of July 30--31 Meeting (2pm et--1st Rate Cut in decade/2 Dissenters)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie CBA Aug Manfuacturing PMI
        Japan Nikkei Aug (P) Manufacturing PMI, Jun All Industry Activity Index, Jul Machine Tool Orders
        BoJ Holdings of Japanese Gov't Bonds
        Swiss Q2 Industrial & Construction Output
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Markit Aug Mnftg, Services+Composite PMI
        ECB Publishes Account of July 24--25 MPC Meeting

Thurs.      Aug 22 Canada Jun Wholesale Trade (Orders/Sales)
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et)
Markit Flash Mnftg, Services + Composite PMI (8:45am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
K.C. Fed Manufacturing Index (11am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement
US Treasury Auctions 4-wk & 8-wk Bills (11:30am et Values not available at post)
K.C. Fed 43rd Jackson Hole Economic Symposium "Challenges for Monetary Policy" '19 theme (
Jackson Hole WY thru 24th; Agenda will be released AFTER it opens)
ECB's Couere, Lane & Lautenschlager panelists @K.C. Fed Jackson Hole Symposium
US Treasury Auctions $7B reopened 30-year TIPS (1pm et)
US weekly Fed Balance Sheet & weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan Jul CPI

         Singapore Q2 GDP & Jul CPI
         UK Aug CBI Reported Sales/Total Distributed Reported Sales
Friday,     Aug 23 Mexico Jun Economic Activity IGAE
Canada Jun Retail Sales
US July New Home Sales (10am et)
FOMC Chief Powell speaks @ K.C. Fed Symposium (10am et Jackson Hole WY)
BoE Gov. Mark Carney Jackson Hole Luncheon speaker (3pm et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Japan P.M. Abe and others assemble in France for Group of 7 Industrialized Nations Mtg
Saturday, Aug 24 German Jul Import Price Index
Group of 7 (G7) 43rd Summit includes Pres. Trump, Italian P.M. Conte, Germany's Merkel, France's Macron (host), Japan's Abe, UK's Johnson, Canada's Trudeau-Theme Inequality    (Biarritz France to 26th)
RBA (Aussie) Gov Lowe speaks @Jackson Hole Symposium (12:25pm et)
K.C. Fed Jackson Hole Symposium Wraps with dinner (Jackson Hole WY)
Sunday,    Aug 25 German Jul Import Price Index
G7 Summit Continues  (Biarritz FR thru 26th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zeland July Trade Balance
        Singapore July Industrial Production
        Spain PPI
        Hong Kong July Trade Balance
        German Aug IFO Business Conditions/Expectations
        Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
        EEA-ESEM 34th Annual Congress of the European Economic Ass'n+72nd European meeting of the Econometric Society (Manchester UK thru 30th)
Monday,   Aug 26 UK Summer Bank Holiday
US July  Durable + Capital Goods Orders/Shipments  (8:30am et)
Chicago Fed Aug National Activity Index
Brazil July current Account, Foreign Direct Investment
BoE's Broadbent, DiPace, Dreschsel, Harrison & LSE+BoE's Tenreyro discuss Paper #51: The Brexit Vote, productivity growth & macroeconomic adjustments in the UK @ EEA-ESEM (Manchester UK)
Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Survey
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
    OVERNGHT into US Tues. a.,m. et:
         Japan Jul Corporate Service Prices, CPI
         German Jul Retail Sales
         China July Corporate Price Index &   Industrial Profits
         RBA's (Aussie) Debelle speaks (Canberra)
         German Q2 GDP, Private Consumption, Gov't Spending, CapEx,
         French Q3 Industrial Investments, Jobseekers
         UK BBA Jul Loans for House Purchase
         ECB's de Guindos on communication, expectations & monetary policy @34th Annual Congress of European Economic Ass'n (Manchester UK thru 30th)
Tuesday,  Aug 27 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
FHFA June House Price Index
S&P Case Shiller June 20-city Home Price Index
(9am et)
Conference Board's US Aug. Consumer Confidence (10am et)
Richmond Fed Aug Manufacturing Index
Dallas Aug Fed Services Revenues, Texas Services Sector Outlook
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed.
        UK Aug Nationwide House Price Index, BRC Shop Price Index
        Aussie Q2 Construction Work
        Swiss Aug ZEW Conditions/Expectations
        German Sept GfK Consumer Confidence

        Eurozone Jul Money Supply
        Nat'l Balance Sheet of euro area monetary financial institutions (ex-ECB)
Wed.        Aug 28 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
Brazil Jul Lending, PPI , Fx Flows
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillate Report (10:30am et;  w/e 08/23)
FRB Atlanta, Stanford & UChicago Booth School Survey of Business Uncertainty
US Treasury Auctions $18B reopened 2-year FRN (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Daly speaks on Fed's dual mandate-the tradeoffs w/Q&A @RBNZ--IMF Conference: "Inflation Targeting: Prospects & Challenges" (5:30pm et Wellington NZ thru 29th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         South Korea Sept Manufacturing BSI
         Japan July Loans & Discounts
         China July Swift Global Payments
         New Zealand ANZ Aug Business Confidence/Activity Outlook
         Aussie Q2 Building/Plant/Machinery/Private CapEx
         Spain Aug CPI, HICP
         BoJ's Hitoshi Suzuki speaks (Kumamoto)
         French Q2 (F) GDP
         Italian Jun Industrials New Orders/ Sales, Jul PPI, HICP
         German Aug Unemployment Claims/Rate/Change, CPI, HICP
         Eurozone Aug CPI, Services, Industrial, Business & Consumer Confidence
         South Africa July PPI
         Canada CFIB Aug Business Barometer
Thurs,      Aug 29 Canada Q2 Current Account Balance
Brazil Q2 GDP, BCB National Monetary Council Meeting
US Q2 GDP/PCE (2nd guess;  8:30am et)
US July Int'l Trade Deficit  (trigger for a Trump tweet storm?)
US weekly initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US Q2 Corporate Profits
US (adv) Q2 Retail Inventories (ex-Autos)
US (adv) Wholesale Inventories
NAR July Pending Home Sales Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am;  value not known at post)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (final drawdown until "normalization of balance sheet resumes)
US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         South Korea July Industrial Production, Service Sector Output
         New Zealand July Building Permits, ANZ Aug Consumer Confidence
         UK Aug Lloyds Business Barometer, GfK Aug Consumer Confidence
         Japan July Jobless Apps/Rate, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Aug CPI
         South Korea Aug Interest Rate Decision
         Aussie July Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit
         Japan July Vehicle Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders
         UK July Mortgage Approvals, Net Consumer Credit, Money Supply M4
         German Retail Sales
         Spain June Current Account, July Retail Sales
         Hong Kong July Retail Sales (demonstrations destroyed city center)
         Italy July Unemployment Rate, Q2 (F) GDP, Aug CPI, HICP, Q2 GDP
         India Q2 GDP, July Infrastructure Output
         South Africa July Trade Balance
         Eurozone Jul Unemployment Report/Change, Aug CPI
Friday,    Aug 30 US July Personal Income & Outlays/Savings Rate/PCE (8:30am et)
Canada June+Qtr GDP, Industrial Product & Raw Materials Price Indices, Budget Balance
Chicago Aug PMI  (9:45am et)
Brazil Jul Budget Balance, Debt-to-GDP Ratio
U.M. Final Aug. Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
Baker-Hughes US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
US Memorial Day Weekend Exodus Begins
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m et:
         South Korea  Aug Trade Balance
Saturday, Aug 31/
Sunday,   Sept. 01
China Aug Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing + Composite PMI
Monday, September 02 US National Holiday--Labor Day

      WEEKS AHEAD:  09/
03  RBA (Aussie MPC Meets
                                      09/04  Fed's Evans opens "Forging a New Path for North American Trade: The Auto Sector" @FRB Chicago's Detroit branch (3:15pm edt thru 5th)
                                                 Bk of Canada MPC Meets
                                      09/12  ECB MPC Meets
                               09/17--18  FOMC Meets, Member Forecasts Updated, Powell Presser
                                      09/19  BoE MPC Meets
                                                 SNB MPC Meets
                                                 BoJ MPC Meets
                                                 Norges Bk (Norway) MPC Meets
                                    09/24    RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                    09/28    Bk of Mexico MPC MEets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price