wall street in advance

January 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

TUESDAYS:
                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
(4:30p.m.)
    WEDNESDAYS:
                
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
    THURSDAYS:
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Jan 06 Canada Nov Industrial Product Price Index
US Trade Delegation leaves for Bejing for 2-days of hi-level trade talks
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie Dec Performance of Manufacturing Index
         Japan Nov Loans & Discounts, Dec End Monetary Base
         China Dec Fx Reserves & Imports
         German Nov Factory Orders & Retail Sales

         Italy Q3 Public Debt
         Eurozone Sentix Jan Investor Confidence & Nov Retail Sales
Monday,  Jan 07 US Nov Factory Orders
US Nov Retail & Wholesale Inventories
US/China to hold hi-ministerial trade talks in Beijing (thru 8th)
US Nov (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments

US Nov Construction Spending
US Nov Int'l Trade Deficit
Nov New Home Sales
ISM US Dec Non-Manufacturing Index
Canada Ivey Dec PMI
Fed's Bostic fireside chat @ Rotary Club of Atlanta
US Treasury Auctions $39B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
Holiday in Russia
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et:
          Aussie Nov Trade Balance, Dec Performance of Services
          New Zealand ANZ Job Ads, Dec Fx Reserves
          Japan Dec Nikkei Services & Composite PMI & Dec Vehicle Sales
          Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate + Retail Sales
          German Nov Industrial Production, Markit Dec Construction PMI
          French Nov Current Account + Trade Balance
          UK Halifax Dec House Price Index, New Car Registrations
          Eurozone Dec Business, Industrial, & Consumer Climate + Sentiment Surveys
Tuesday,  Jan 08 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Canada  Nov Int'l Trade Balance
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (includes post-Xmas sales & New Year)
Fed's Nov JOLTS (Job Turnover, Openings, & Quits)
Brazil Nov Industrial & Dec Auto Production
South Africa Dec Total Vehicle Sales
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
US Nov Consumer Credit (3pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan ANZ Commodity Prices
         Japan Nov Labor Cash Earnings
         Aussie Nov Building Approvals, Job Vacancies, AiG Services Index
         South Korea Dec Unemployment Rate
         German Nov Trade Balance
         Swedish Central Bank MPC Meeting Minutes
         Swiss Dec CPI
        Italy Nov Unemployment Rate
         Eurozone Nov Unemployment Rate
         UK NIESR GDP Estimate

Wed.,       Jan 09 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Canada Dec Housing Starts
Fed's Bostic on Eco Outlok @ Chattanooga Chamber Commerce (8:20am et)
Fed's Evans on Eco Conditions & Monetary Policy @ Discover Financial Services Meeting (9am et)
BoE Gov Carney online Q&A on "Let's Decide the Future of Money"
BoC (Canada) MPC Interest Rate Announcement & Monetary Policy Report
BoC Gov Poloz & Dpty Wilkins post-Meeting Press Conference
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats (10:30am et)
Fed's Rosengren on Eco Outlook @ Boston Economic Club  (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes
FOMC Minutes of Dec 18--19, 2018 Meeting
at which it raised rates (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et
         Japan Fx Reserves
         Aussie NAB Business Confidence
         Swiss Q4 Real Estate Index of Family Homes
         China Dec Money Supply, New Yuan Loans & Aggregate Financing
         UK BRC Dec Like-for-Like Sales & RICS Dec House Price Balance
         China Dec PPI, CPI, Industrial Production

         Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate
         French Nov Industrial Production
         Italy Nov Retail Sales
         South Africa Nov Manufacturing Production
         ECB  Publishes Account of Dec. Monetary Policy Meeting
         Russia Fx Reserves
Thurs.      Jan 10 US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Nov New Housing Price Index, Building Permits
Dec US Chain Store Sales Release
(Holiday season)
Fed's Barkin speaks to Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce  (8:35am et)
Brookings Institution '10 years later:Lessons from the 2008-09 financial crisis' speakers include Peter Orszag, Carmen Reinhart, Larry Summers, and more (9am)
US Dec Wholesale Trade (10am et)
US New Home Sales (approx date)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 01/04)
US Treasury Auctions 4-wk & 8-wk Bills (11:30am et; amount not yet known)
Fed's Bullard on Eco & Monetary Policy @ Little Rock Chamber of Commerce (12:30;pm et)
Fed's Evans on current Eco Conditions & Monetary Policy  @ Milwaukee Business Journal Economic Forecast Event  (1pm et)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
Fed's weekly Balance Sheet & Money Supply (4:30pm et)
Fed V.Chair Clarida speaks to Money Marketeers of NY  (5:30pm est)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         French MPC de Galhau on European Economic Prospects in 2019
         Aussie AiG Dec Construction Index
         New Zealand Nov Building Permits
         South Korea Dec Unemployment Rate
         Japan Nov Current Account   Balance, Trade Balance, Dec Bank & Trust Lending, Eco Watchers Dec Current Survey, Nov Household Spending
         China Dec Foreign Direct Investment
         Aussie Nov Retail Sales
         Singapore Retail Sales
         Spain & Italy Nov Industrial Production
         UK Nov Trade Balance, Industrial +  Manufacing Production, Construction Output, Nov GDP
         ECB's Mersch, Nowotny & Makuch at Eco Conferenc to mark Slovakia's 10th Euro Adoption Annivesary
         India Nov Industrial Production
Friday,     Jan 11 US Dec CPI , Real Avg Weekly Earnings (830am et)
Mexico Nov Industrial Prolduction
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
WASDE Report probably delayed by partial gov't shutdown
Fed's George on Eco & Monetary Policy before The Central Exchange
Fed's Clarida speaks to Money Marketeers of  NYU (NY)
US Treasury Budget Released (2pm et with 800K workers not being paid, for now)
Sat.         Jan 12
Sun.        Jan 13     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        China New Yuan Loans & Dec Merchandise Trade Balance

        India Wholesale Price Index & CPI
        Eurozone Nov Industrial Production
        German Dec Wholesale Price Index
Monday,   Jan 14 Canada Jan Teranet/National Bank Home Price index
Janet Yellen, Kara Swisher (re/code) & Steve Liesman panelists at NRF Big Show (8:30am NY)
US Treasury Auctions $39B3-, & $36B 6-month Bills
Pres. Trump closing keynote @ Am. Farm Bureau Federation Centennial Convention (11:15am cst)
      OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et:
          Japan Dec Machine Tool Orders
          India Merchandise Trade Balance
          Eurozone (P) 2018 GDP & Nov Trade Balance
          German 2018 Public Finances/GDP
          France CPI
          UK Parliament Votes on P.M May's Brexit Agreement          
          ECB Chief Mario Draghi addresses EU Parliament, answers Q&A on 2017 ECB Annual Report
          Bank of Brazil Gov Goldfajn on Central Banking in Emerging Markets  @ (ICMB) Int'l Centre for Monetary & Banking Studies (Geneve Suisse)
Tuesday,   Jan 15 US Dec. PPI--FD (8:30 am et)
Empire State NY Fed Jan Manufacturing Survey
Canada Dec Existing Home Sales
Fed's Kashkari
on regional economy w/Q&A @ Rochester Economic Summmit (MN 11:30am et)
Fed Bk of Philadelphia issues historical revisions to monthly Non-manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Fed's Kaplan participates in Q&A @ Plano Chamber of Commerce Annual (TX 1pm et)
Fed's George speaks on eco & monetary policy outlook w/Q&A (Kansas City MO 1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
          New Zealand Dec Card Spending/Card Spending at Retail
          Japan Nov Machine Orders, PPI, , Dec Corporate Goods Price Index, Tertiary Index
          China Dec New House Prices
          Germany & Italy  CPI
          German Economy Minister holds conference on the digital transformation in Germany  (Berlin Germany)
          Riksbank Dpty Gov Skingsley discusses developments on payments @ Moody's Credit Trends (Stockholm)
          UK Dec CPI + PPI, Retail & Nov House Price Indexes, BBA Dec Loans for House Purchases     
          ECB MPC/French central bank chief de Galhau New Year address to French Financial Sector (Paris FR)
Wed.         Jan 16 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et; while rates are down, FHA closure obstacle)
US Dec Retail Sales (8:30am et)
US Dec Import/Export Prices
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
US Nov Business Inventories (10am et
NAHB Jan Housing Market Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats
(10:30am et)
Fed's Kashkari participant in Intelligence Squared Debate on "Ten Years After the Global Financial Crisis, the System is Safer" (NY 1pm et)
Fed's Beige  Book (2pm et)
US Nov TICS (4pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        China  Dec Fx Settlement
        Singapore Merchandise Trade Balance
        Aussie Nov Home Loans, Investment Lending, Value of All Loans
        BoJ's Kuroda, Amamiya, & FinMin Aso speak as Japan Chairs of G20 (Tokyo)
        Germany PPI
        Eurozone Dec CPI & HICP, Nov Contruction Output,
        BoE Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys
        Italian Trade Balance
        UK RICS Dec House Price Balance
Thursday, Jan 17 US Dec Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims
Philly Fed Jan Business Outlook Survey   (8:30am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $13B reopened 10-year TIPS (1pm et)
Fed's weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
         Japan Dec CPI,
Convenience Store Sales, Nov Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
         ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
         Swiss Dec Producer & Import Prce Index
         Eurozone Nov Current Account
         UK Dec Retail Sales
Friday,      Jan18 Last Day to Trade Jan Options--some of which began as LEAPs over 2.5 years ago
Canada Dec CPI, + Nov Internation Securities Transactions
Fed's Harker on "Business Equity and the Future of Philadelphia" prior to "The Prosperity Symposium: Economic Mobility Research in Action" (Philadelphia PA)
NY Fed's Williams on US Eco Outlook & Monetary Policy w/Q&A @ NJ Bankers Ass'n Economic Leadership Forum (Somerset NJ 9:05am et)
US Dec Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et  Utes biggest portion)
U.M. (Prelim) Jan Consumer Sentiment
Baker-Hughes weekly Rig Count
(1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
         UK Jan CBI Business Optimism, Order Trends & Selling Price Trends
Saturday, Jan 19
Sunday,   Jan 20     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et
        China Q4 GDP, Dec Industrial Production & Profts, Retail Sales
, Fixed Asset & Property Investment, Jobless Rate
        UK Jan rightmove House Prices
        Germany Dec PPI
Monday, Jan 21 Martin Luther King Jr US Holiday --ALL US Markets Closed
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et
         World Economic Forum
(sans Trump & Macron; Davos-Klosters Switzerland thru 25th)

      WEEKS AHEAD: Jan. 21, 2019
   Martin Luther King  Jr US Holiday ALL Markets Closed
                                        01/23    BoJ MPC Meets/Kuroda press conference
                                        01/24    ECB MPC Meets
                                                      Norges MPC Meets
                                        01/29    FOMC 2-day Meeting Starts
                                        01/30    FOMC Meeting Statement & Powell Press Conference
                                                                                                        
*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price