wall street in advance

October 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Oct 06 China FX reserves
Fed's George closing 1st day  @NABE (Business Economists; 4pm Denver CO thru 8th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Construction
        China Sept Caixin Services/Conmposite PMI
        Japan Sept Fx Reserves
        German Aug Factory Orders
        Eurozone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence
        UK Halifax Sept House Price Index
        Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine Announced
        Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Monday,  Oct 07 Fed's Kashkari fireside chat about Minneapolis Fed work in Native Am. Country @NAFOA Annual Finance & Tribal Economies Conference  (10:20am Prior Lake MN)
WSJ Global Food Forum (NY)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
Fed Chief Powell remarks before premiere screening of KUED film, "Marriner Eccles: Father of the Modern Federal Reserve" (1pm et Salt Lake City UT)
US Aug Consumer Credit (3pm; debt, really)
National Day Golden Week Continues in China & Hong Kong
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        UK BRC Sept Like-for-Like Sales
        Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings, Household Spending, Trade Balance, Current Account Balance
        New Zealand Gov't Full Year Financial Statements
        Aussie NAB Sept Business Confidence/Conditions, ANZ Sept Job Ads
        BoE Gov Carney speaks @Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure Summit (speech to be released at 5:10 gmt Tokyo)
        China Sept New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing
        NewZealand REINZ Sept House Sales
        Swiss Sept Unemployment Rate
        German & Spanish Aug Industrial Production
        French Aug Trade Balance
        Italian Aug Retail Sales
        UK Q2 Labor Productivity
        BoE's Cleland speaks @PayExpo 2019 (London 12:10gmt)
        Nobel Prize for Physics Announced
Tuesday,  Oct 08 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Canada Sept Housing Starts/Aug Building Permits
US Sept PPI--Final Demand (8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Fed's Schedule of Continuing REPO Offerings through end of October here
US Treasury Auctions $28B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Evans speaks w/Q&A @Chicago Rotary Club luncheon (1:35pm Chicago IL)
Fed Chief Powell speaks on "Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy" @NABE Business Economics Annual Meeting  (2:30pm et Denver CO)
Fed Chief  Powell speaks @NABE (1:50pm et)
Fed's Kashkari speaks @St Cloud State Univ. Town Hall w/Q&A (5pm St. Cloud MN)
Holiday in India--Dasara
Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement begins at Sundown 
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Sept ANZ Heavy Truckometer
        Japan Machine Tool Orders
        Swiss Q3 Real Estate Index of Family Homes
        Nobel Prize for Chemistry Announced
        BoE publishes Financial Policy Summary & Record of the Financial Policy Cmte Meeting (9:30gmt)
        Brazil Sept CPI
        ECB Governing Council meets for Non-Monetary Policy session
        ECB's Lane panelist @ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science & practice (Frankfurt Germany 11:30cet)
        Publication of the Consolidated Financial Quarterly Statement of the Eurosystem
        Mexico Sept CPI
Wed.         Oct 09 MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
US Aug JOLTS (Job Turnover & Openings; 10am et )
US Aug. Wholesale Trade (Sales/Inventories; 10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report  (10:30am et; w/e 10/04)
Fed's Powell opens, then he & K.C. Fed's George co-host roundtable "Fed Listens: A Community Listening Session" before Community & Biz Leaders (11am et; K.C., MO)
Brazil Reuters Oct IPSOS-PCS
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed Minutes of 2-day Meeting Sept 18th  (2pm et)
Yom Kippur, the Jewish  Day of Atonement ends at Sundown (light trading volume)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         UK RICS Sept House Price Balance

         Japan Sept Bank & Trust Lending, Aug Machine Orders, Sept Domestic Goods Price Index, PPI
         Japan Reuters Oct Tankan Index
         Aussie Aug Home Loans, Investment Lending, Owner-Occupied Loan Value
         China Sept Foreign Direct Investment
         German Aug Trade Balance, Current Account, Sovereign Debt Rated by S&P
         French & Italian Aug Industrial Production
         ECB publishes account of the Sept 11--12/19 Governing Council MPC (13:30cet)
         UK Aug Construction Ouput, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, NIESR GDP, Trade Balance, Index of Services
         South Africa Aug Mining & Gold Production
         BoE Gov Carney speaks at launch of of new 20 GBP banknote (Margate 10:30gmt)
         Nobel Prize in Literature for 2018 & 2019 Announced
         OPEC Monthly Report (estimated date)
Thurs,      Oct 10 Brazil Aug Retail Sales
US Sept CPI  (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Sept Chain Store Sales
Canada Aug New Housing Price Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 10/04)
Bloomberg Future of Investing: Focus on Corporate Governance (D.C.)
Chinese delegation lead by PremierLiu arrives for Trade Talks (D.C. thru 11th)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; value not available at post)
Fed's Kashkari fireside chat on Fed Reserve, economy & markets @Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit (NY 12:15pm et)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
US weekly Fed Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
ECB's Lane speaks @CEPR Research & Policy Network Workshop (Frankfurt 19:30cet)
Fed's Mester fireside chat w/Q&A @John Carroll U. (5:30pm University Heights, OH)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
       Singapore Q3 (P) GDP
       RBA (Aussie) Financial Stability Review
       So. Korea BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting Minutes
       Singapore Aug Retail Sales
       New Zealand Sept Businesss & Manufacturing PMI, Card Spending
       Eurozone, French, German Italian, Spanish Sept CPI & HICP
       Nobel Prize for Peace announced
       Mexican Aug Industrial Production
       India Aug Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output
Friday,     Oct 11 Fed's Kashkari  fireside chat @Council on Foreign Relations w/Q&A (8am et NY)
US Sept Import/Export Prices (8:30am et)
Canada Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Wages/Part-/Full-Time
U.M. (Prelim) Oct. Consumer Sentiment--Current/Expectations (10am et)
Fed Reserve Bk hosts students on "Exploring Careers in Economics" (10:30am et D.C.)
Russia Aug Trade Balance
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 10/04)
Fed's Rosengren speaks @American Economic Challenges Symposium @Univ of Wisconsin-Madison (1:15pm Madison WI)
Fed's Kaplan speaks w/Q&A @Commonwealth Club of California (3pm et San Francisco)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
         Singapore Q2 GDP
Saturday, Oct 12
Brazil Holiday--Our Lady of Aparecida Day
German Sept Wholesale Price Index
Swiss Q3 Real Estate Index of Family Homes
Sunday,     Oct 13     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Singapore Q3 GDP
        China Sept Trade Balance, New Yuan Loans/Aggregate Lending, Money Supply
        New Zealand Sept REINZ House Sales, Performance of Services Index, Migration
        India Sept WPI Inflation, Manufacturing Inflation
        Chiina Foreign Direct Investment
        Eurozone Aug Industrial Production
        Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout,, IBC-Br Aug Economic Activity
        BoE's Cunliffe speaks on Monetary Policy @Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference (London 13:10gmt)
Monday,  Oct 14 US Columbus Day Holiday--Treasury Markets Closed
US Equities Trade Regular Schedule

NY Fed 42nd Central Banking Seminar "The New Normal: Navigating a Low Rate Environment in an Uncertain World" (NY FRB thru 18th)
Econonic Sciences Memorial Prize awarded in memory of Alfred Nobel
Jt IMF/World Bank GroupAnnual Fall Meeting (D.C. thru 20th)
Canada & Japan separate holidays
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         RBA (Aussie) Oct Rate Meeting Minutes Released
         BoJ's Kuroda
speaks @Branch Manager Meeting
         China Sept CPI + PPI
         So Korea Sept Trade Balance
         Japan Aug Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Tertiary Industry Activity Index
         Swiss Sept Producer& Import Prices
         French Sept CPI & HICP
         S.L. Fed's Bullard on "The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Options" @2019 Monetary & Financial Policy Conference w/Q&A (London 4:25am et)
         UK ILO Aug Unemployment Rate/Change, Sept Claimant Count/Change/Earnings
         Eurozone Oct ZEW Survey of Current Conditions/Expectations, Reserve Assets
         German Oct ZEW Survey of Current Conditions/Expectations
         BoE's Vlieghe speaks on Monetary Policy @MoneyMacro & Finance Society Monetary & Financial Policy Conference  (London)
         UK Treasury Select Cmte hearing on "BoE Financial Stability Report" (9:30gmt)
Tuesday   Oct 15 NY Fed Oct Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Fed's Bostic participant in Q&A on community development @Purpose Built Communities Conference (9am et)
India Trade Balance
BoC Dpty Gov Wilkins speaks (8:30am) & ECB's Lane & RBI's Patra speak (9:30am) @42nd NY Fed Central Banking Seminar (FRB NY thru 18th)
IMF presents World Economic Outlook (9am D.C.)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
NY Fed CEO/Pres Williams fireside chat @NY FRB Central Banking Seminar(12:30pm)
S.F. Fed's Daly @Los Angeles World Affairs Council/Town Hall w/Q&A (L.A. 2:30pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        12 Democratic 2020 Presidential Hopefuls Debate on CNN
(8pm et)
        So Korea Sept Import/Export Price Indices & Sept Unemployment Rate
        So Korea MPC Oct Interest Rate Decision
        New Zealand Q3 CPI
        Japan Sept Dept Store Sales
        EU 25 Sept New Car Registrations
        UK Sept CPI, PPI, Vehicle Registrations
, Retail Price Index, Aug House Price Index
        Eurozone Sept CPI, HICP, Aug Trade Balance
        Italy CPI + HICP
Wed.,       Oct 16 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
So. Africa Aug Retail Sales
Canada Sept CPI, Aug TICS
US Sept Retail Sales (8:30am et)
Fed's Evans on current eco conditions & monetary policy w/Q&A @Greater Peoria Development Council (Peoria IL 9am)
Russia Sept Industrial Production
US Aug Business (wholesale & retailer)  Inventories (10am et)
ECB's Lane "A Conversation with ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane" @Brookings Institution (D.C. 10am et)
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
IIF  Institute for International Finance Annual Meeting  (10am NY)
Bloomberg Sooner than you Think (Brooklyn NY)
Sohn Foundation Conference (San Francisco)
NAHB Oct Housing Market Index
Fed's Beige Book
(2pm et)
Fed Gov Brainard speaks @"Future of Money in the Digital Age," JT Peterson Institute + Princeton Univ Center for Finance (3pm stream live)
US Aug TICS   (4pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        RBA's Debelle speaks (Sydney Australia), RBA Sept Fx Transactions
        Aussie Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation, NAB Qtrly Biz Confidence
        Singapore Sept Trade Balance
        Tokyo Sept Condo Sales, Convenience Store Sales
        Hong Kong Sept Exports/Imports
        ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
        UK Sovereign Debt to be Rated by Fitch

        Swiss Sept Trde Balance ncludes Watch Exports
        BoE Bank Liabilities/Credit Conditions Surveys (9:30gmt, 10/17 local time)
        UK Sept Retail Sales
        Eurozone Aug Construction Output
Thurs.      Oct 17 Canada ADP Sept Payroll Estimate, Aug Manufacturing Sales
US Sept Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Philly Fed Oct Business Outlook Survey
IMF Global Stability press briefing
(8:30am et  D.C.)
David Malpass, new World Bank Grp leader, keynotes (8:45am D.C.)
US Sept Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et)
ECB's Couere
participates in G20 FinMin & Central Bank Governors deputies' mtg (DC)
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon "A Conversation on Global Developments" (10am NY FRB)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 10/11)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (delayed by Mon. holiday)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
BoE's Breeden (Exec Dir for Int'l Banks Supervision) on "Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks" @NY FRB Central Banking Series (11am et)
Russia Fx Reserves, Sept Unemployment Rate, PPI, Retail Sales
US Auctions 4- & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; value not announced at post)
CNBC debate on the Global Economy @IMF/World Bank Jt Meeting (noon)
US Treasury Auctions $17B  5-year TIPS (1pm et)
Fed's Evans at "Fed Listens: Monetary Policy Impact on Workers and Their Communities" (2pm) Fed Gov Bowman speaks also  (2:10pm @Chicago IL FRB stream here)
Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) offers "A Macro Investor's View of the Current Global Environment" @42nd NY FRB Central Banking Series
NY Fed's Williams keynotes @Managed Funds Ass'n Outlook Conference (NY 4:20pm)
Fed Reserve Balance Sheet (soon to grow, again) & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm)
G24 Press Briefing @IMF/World Bank Jt Annual Fall Meeting (5:15pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan Sept CPI,
Foreign Investments in Japan, Sept Trade Balance
         China Q3 + YTD GDP, Fixed Assets, Sept Industrial Production, Property Investment, Retail Sales, Surveyed Jobless Rate, Nat'l Bureau of Statistics Press Conf.
          Hong Kong Sept Unemployment Rate
          RBI (India) MPC Meeting Minutes

          UK CBI Oct Business Optimism, Selling & Order Trends
          German Sept WPI
          Eurozone Aug Current Account
Friday,     Oct 18 Canada Teranet/Nta'l Bank Sept Home Price Index
IMF Asia & Pacific press briefing (9am et) followed by Plenaries, then regional briefings at 45 minutes intervals (D.C.)
Fed's George & Fed's Kaplan speak @Jt Dallas & K.C. FRBs Conference on Energy & the Economy (10am Denver CO)
ECB's Draghi & Couere participate in IMF/World Bank JT Meeting (D.C.)
Chair McWilliams kicks off 9th FDIC Consumer Research Symposium
Fed's Kashkari speaks @Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines Annual Leadership Summit (Bloomington MN 10:30am)
Fed V. Chair Clarida "US Eco Outlook & Monetary Policy" @CFA Institute Fixed Income Management Conference 2019 (11:30am Boston MA streamed here )
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm;  w/e 10/11)
G20 press conference @IMF/World Bank JT Meeting (1:15pm  D.C.)
Saturday, Oct 19 Mervyn King (former Gov BoE) delivers Per Jacobsson Lecture "The World Turned Upside Down: Economic Policy in Turbulent Times" @IMF (D.C.)
ECB's Draghi & Couere partipate at IMF/World Bank Meetings (D.C.)
      WEEKS AHEAD: 10/24    ECB MPC Meets
(a week pre-Brexit)
                                                   Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
                                10/29--30   FOMC 2-day Meeting
                                      10/30    FOMC Rate Decision

                                                   BoC (Canada) MPC Rate Decision
                                      10/31    BoJ MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price