wall street in advance

October/November 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,     Oct 27 UK Nationwide Oct Home Price Index
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
       Japan Sept Corporate Service Price
       UK Oct CBI Reported Sales, Total Distributed Sales
       BoE Asset Purchase Facility Quality Report 19Q3 (9:30 gmt)
       BoE's Tenreyro speaks @John Fleming Memorial Lecture (London 17:00mgt)
       German Import Price Index
       Eurozone Sept Loans to non-Fnancial Corporations
       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
       Separate Holidays in Singapore, New Zealand, India thru 28th
Monday,  Oct 28 US Sept Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
Chicago Fed Oct National Activity Index
US Sept Wholesale & Retail Inventories
Mario Draghi
speaks @ his Farewell event in his honor at his term end (16:00 cet; Frankfurt @ECB)
Dallas Fed Oct Manufacturing Survey  (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (that's it!)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et:
        Japan/Tokyo Oct CPI

        South Korea Nov Manufacturing BSI Index
        RBA Gov Lowe speaks (Canberra)
        South Africa Sept Private Sector Credit, Q3 Unemployment 
        Spanish Sept Retail Sales
        Italian Sept PPI
        BoE Sept Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply
Tuesday   Oct 29 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
S&P Case Shiller Aug 20-city Home Price Index  (9am et)
Fed Reserve Bk of Chicago Housing Symposium (FRB Chicago Detroit Branch)
Boeing CEO Muilenberg testifies @Senate Commerce Cmte on 737 Max Certification
FOMC 2-day Meeting  Starts
Conference Board's Oct Consumer Confidence/Expectations (10am et)
US Sept Pending Home Sales Index
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Japan Sept Retail Trade

        UK BRC Oct Shop Price Index
        Aussie Q3 CPI, HIA New Home Sales
        BoJ Q4 Outlook Report
        French Q3 GDP
        German Oct Unemployment Report/Claims, CPI, HICP
        South Africa Budget Balance
        Swiss ZEW Oct Conditions/Expectations
        Eurozone Business/Industrial/Services/Consumer Oct Confidence
Wed.,       Oct 30 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
ADP US Oct Private Employnment Report (8:15am et)
US Q3 GDP/Business Investment/Household Spending/PCE (8:30am)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
BoC (Canada) MPC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report + Press Conference
Boeing (BA) CEO Muilenberg testifies @US House Transportation Cmte (D.C. 10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Heating Oil/Refinery Report (10:30am et)
Atlanta FRB/Chicago/Booth+Stanford Univ Survey of Business Uncertainty (11am et)
ECB's Lautenschlager speaks @"Mein Europe" Univ of Dusseldorf+KAS (Germany)
FOMC Interest Rates Decision  (2pm et)
FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference
(2:30pm et)
ECB's Enria speaks @Centre for European Reform event (London 21:05 cet)
Brazil Interest Rate Decision, Fx Flows
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
New Zealand Sept Building Permits, ANZ Oct Activity Outlook, Business Confidence
        South Korea Sept Industrial Production, Services Output, REtail Sales
        Japan Sept Industrial Production
        UK Lloyds Oct Business Barometer
        Aussie Sept Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit/Export & Import Price Index
        China Oct Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
        Singapore Sept Bank Lending, Q3 Business Expectations
        German Oct CPI
        BoJ MPC Interest Rate/QE   Decisions, Official Reserves (10/31 local time), Aug Vehicle Production, Sept Construction Orders, Housing Starts, Consumer Confidence
        India Sept Federal Fiscal Deficit
        Wards US Oct Total Vehicle Sales
        ECB's de Guindos keynotes @Deusto Business School Conference (Bilboa Spain)
        Spain Q3 GDP, Aug Current Account 
        French CPI, HICP
        Hong Kong Q3 GDP
        SNB (Swiss) Announces 18Q3 Currency Allocation
        Canada CFIB Oct Business Barometer
        Eurozone Q3 GDP, Oct CPI, HICP, Sept Unemploynment Rate
        Italian Q3 GDP
        ESCB (European System of [National] Central Banks +BoE & ECB) Research Cluster on Monetary Econonics 3rd Annual Workshop (London thru 11/01)
Thurs.      Oct 31 Challenger Oct Lay-offs (7:30am et;   skewed by GM strike)
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et)
US Sept Personal Income/Spending/PCE  
19Q3 ECI--Employment Cost Index
Brazil Unemployment Rate, Sept Budget Balance
Canada Aug GDP, Sept IPPI, RMPI
Financial System of the Future Conference from GA State Univ & FRB Atlanta (Atlanta GA thru 11/01)
Chicago Oct PMI (9:45am et)
SNB Chief Jordan speaks on pension fund challenges (Bern, Suisse)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 10/25)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et values to be announced 10/29)
Fed Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
Fed Reserve weekly Balance Sheet (exploded on back of  increase to $120B)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Oct Performance of Manufacturing, CSA Mnftg PMI, CoreLogic HPI
         Japan Sept Jobless Rate, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         South Korea Oct Trade Balance, CPI, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         Aussie Q3 PPI, Oct RBA Commodity Index   
         China Caixin Oct Manufacturing PMI
         India Oct Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI
         Japan Oct Vehicle Sales
         Hong Kong Sept Retail Sales
         Swiss Oct CPI, HICP, Sept Retail Sales, Oct Manufacturing PMI
         UK Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI
         Brazil Sept Industrial Production, Markit Oct Manufacturing PMI
Friday,     Nov 01 South Africa Oct Total Vehicle Sales
US Oct. Unemployment Report/Continuing Claims/Participation (8:30am et)
Canada RBC Manufacturing PMI
US Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI (9:45am et)
US ISM Manufacturing Index/Orders/Shipments/Prices Paid/Employment (10am et)
US Sept. Construction Spending
US Oct Vehicle Sales (ex-Ford, GM)
Mexico Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI
NY Fed's Williams participates in Newark (NJ) Anchor Collaborative Roundtable (nnon)
Baker-Hughes weekly Rig count (w/e 10/25)
Fed V Chair Clarida speech on "The U.S., Japan & the Global Economy" (1pm et; Japan Society NY)
Fed V. Chair Quarles speech on "Frederich Hayek & the Price System" @9th Wm. F. buckley Jr Program at Yale Univ (New Haven, CT; 1pm et)
Fed's Williams moderated discussion @Rutgers Business School (Newark NJ 2:30pm)
Brazil Oct Trade Balance
Saturday, Nov 02 US Residents (ex-Arizona) Turn your Clocks BACK One Hour Before Gong to Bed
Sunday,    Nov 03 US (ex-Arizona) Moves to Daylight Savings Time @2am et
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Aussie Sept/Q3 Retail Sales, TD Securities Oct Inflation, ANZ Job Ads
        New Zealand Treasury Monthly Economic Indicators
        UK Lloyds Business Barometer
        Markit Eurozone, France, Italy, Germany Oct Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone Sentix Nov Investor Confidence

        Swiss SECO Q4 Consumer Climate
        Singapore Manufacturing PMI
        French Gov't Budget
        UK Markit/CIPS Oct Construction PMI
        Brazil Sept PPI, BCB Focus Market Readout
        ECB/Kings College "Modelling with Big Data & Machine Learning: Interpretability & model Uncertainty" (@Centre for Central Banking Studies; London thru 5th)
        UK House of Commons Election for new Speaker
Monday,   Nov 04 US Q3 Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures
13th VOWS Veterans on Wall Street Charity Day & Gala
US Oct Vehicle Sales
US Sept (F) Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
US Sept Factory Orders
  (small GM impact; 10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
ECB Chief Lagarde lauds Mr. Schauble (Berlin Germany  20:30 cet)
Fed's Daly fireside chat @NYU Stern Ctr for Global Economy & Business (3pm et NY)
Separate Holidays in Japan & Russia
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Performance of Services, CBA Services/Composite PMI
        New Zealand Oct Commodity Prices
        UK BRC Oct Like for Like Sales
        Hong Kong Oct Manufacturing PMI

        RBA (Aussie) MPC Interest Rate Decision   (11/05 local time)
        India Nikkei Oct Services PMI
        So. Africa Standard Bank PMI
        Caixin Oct China Services/Composite PMI
        UK Oct New Car Registrations, Markit CIPS Services/Composite PMI

        Eurozone Sept PPI
        Brazil Capcom meeting Minutes, Markiet Oct Services/Composite PMI
        Canada Sept Int'l Merchandise Trade Balance
Tuesday,  Nov 05 US Sept Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
US Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
US Oct Markit Services/Composite PMI (9:45am et)
US Oct ISM non-Manufacturing (Services) Index/Outlook (10am et)
US Sept JOLTS  (Job Openings & Quits)
US Treasury Auctions $28B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Kaplan speaks @Real Estate Council Speaker Series w/Q&A (12:40pm Dallas TX)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Kashkari speaks @Thrivent Financial Business Development Conference (6pm MN)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand QV Oct House Prices, Q3 Unemployment Rate/Change/Earnings/ Participation/Labor Cost
        So. Korea Sept Current Account
       BoJ Minutes of September MPC Meeing, Jibun Bank Oct Services/Composite PMI
        China Oct Fx Reserves
        German Sept Factory Orders
        Markit Eurozone, France, German, Italy, Spain  Markit Oct Services/Composite PMI
        ECB's de Guindos welcome remarks @ECB Forum on Banking Supervision: "Banking at a crossroads resilience & innovation in an era of uncertainty" ECB's Enria also speaks; Mersch a panelist on "Rules & regulation--what does the future hold?"  + Jochnick debates "Banks, governance & ethics--how can we trike the right balance?" & Enria panelist "Tje architecture of crisis managaement--how can we make it more efficient?" & Hakkarainen panelist "Banking in a digital world--how is modern technology driving change?" (@ECB Frankfurt 10:00, 10:15, 10:30,12:00, 14:00 & 15:45cet, respectively)
        Eurozone Sept Retail Sales
Wed.        Nov 06 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US Q3 Productivity & Costs
(8:30am et)
New York Times DealBook Conference (NY)
Canada IVEY Oct PMI
NY Fed Pres Williams speaks @WSJ Future of Work Conference (NY 9:30am et)
UK Releases Autumn Budget
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Re;port (10:30am et; w/e 11/01)
US Treasury Auctions $27B 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Philly Fed's Harker speaks on "Rethinking Workforce Investments" w/Q&A @Drexel Univ. (3:15pm et Philadelphia PA)
Fed's Kaplan discusses national & global economic issues with Tom Luce (Dallas FRB Houston branch)
St Louis FRB Bankers Roundtable (3pm--5pm local time. St Louis FRB )
Fed's Williams welcome remarks @NY FRB GARP Global Risk Forum (6:30pm NY)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Oct Performance of Construction Index, Sept Trade Balance, Fx Reserves
        China Oct Trade Balance, BoP Q3 Current Account
        Japan Nov Reuters Tankan Index
        15th Annual Central Bank Conf. on Microstructure of Financial Markets (Stockholm Sweden thru 8th)
       UK Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody's
       UK Halifax Oct House Price Index
       Italian Sept Retail Sales
       Swisss UBS Q3 Real Estate Bubble Index
       German Sept Industrial Production, Markit Oct Construction PMI
       ECB Monthly Economic Bulletin + EU Commission Economic Forecasts
       BoE MPC Interet Rate/QE Decision, Inflation Report +Meeting Summary + Minutes (12:00 gmt --w/Brexit postponed, again)
Thurs,      Nov 07 BoE Gov Carney post-Meeting Press Conference 
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims (8:30am et)
Mexican Oct CPI
IMF 19th Jacques Polak Research Conference: DEBT. The Good. The Bad. The Ugly (D.C. thru 8th)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et;  value to be announced 11/07)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
Fed's Kaplan speaks @Dallas Chamber of Commerce Year Ahead Summit w/Q&A (1:05pm Dallas TX)
US Sept Consumer Credit (3pm et)
Fed Reserve Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base (4:30)
Federal Reserve's weekly Balance Sheet (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Dialogue with the Fed: How Fintech is Transforming Banking (St Louis FRB 6pm local time)
        Atlanta Fed's Bostic on monetary policy @Money Marketeers of NY w/Q&A (7pm)
        Japan Sept Household Spending, Oct Fx Reserves
        Aussie Sept Home Loans, Investment Lending
        China Oct New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing, Money Supply, Trade Balance
        Swiss Oct Unemployment Rate
        German Sept Trade Balance, Current Account
        French Sept Trade Balance, Current Account, Industrial Production, Q3 Unemployment Rate
        ECB's de Guindos participates in ECOFIN meeting (Brussels Belgium)
Friday,     Nov 08 Canada Oct Unemployment Rate/Change/Full-Part Time, Housing Starts, Building Permits
U.M. Prelim Nov Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
US Sept Wholesale Trade--Inventories & Sales  (10am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 11/01)
FRBank of Chicago Alejandro Justiniano Memorial Conference (FRB Chicago thru 9th)
SF Fed's Daly opens FRB San Francisco Research Conference on Climate Change  (11:45am et)
St Louis FRB "Housing & Neighborhood Redevelopment Policy Forum" (St Louis MO
BoC's (Canada) Beaudry speaks
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
        Fed Gov Brainard
closes FRB of San Francisco Research Conference--The Economics of Climate Change (San Francisco CA 8:30pm et) + Daly closes (10:15pm et)
        China Oct CPI  + PPI
Saturday, Nov 09
Monday, Nov 11 Veterans Day, US Treasuries Closed
Equities Opem 9:30 to 4pm

      WEEKS AHEAD: 11/11   US Veterans Day  US Treasury Market Closed/Equities Trade Regular Hours
                                     11/12   RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                     11/14   Banco de Mexico MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price