wall street in advance

October 2018 Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,   Sept 30     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Caixin China Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Manufacturing Index
         South Korea Oct Manufacturing BSI Index & Sept Trade Balance, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 
         Japan Q3 Tankan Index, Outlook + Sept Official Reserve Assets
         Swiss Q3 Real Estate Index of Family Homes
         Ward's Total US Sept Vehicle Sales
         Japan Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI, Sept Vehicle Sales
         India Nikkei/Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Swiss Aug Retail Sales & Sept SVME Manufacturning PMI
         German Aug Retail Sales & Import Price Index
         Russia Sept Markit Manufacturing PMI
         Spain Aug Retail Sales
         Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Sept Manufacturing PMI
         BoE Aug Net Consumer Credit, UK Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending, M4, Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate
         South Africa Manufacturing PMI, Sept Total Vehicle Sales
         BoE MPC member Tenreyro @ Rebuilding Macroeconomics Annual Conf on "Bringing Psychology & Social Sciences into Macroeconomics" (London)
        China Golden Week Holiday throughout the week thru 10/06.
Monday,  Oct 01 Sept US Manufacturing PMI
US Sept ISM Manufacturing Index/Employment/Prices Paid/Orders (10am et)
US Sept Motor Vehicle Sales
RBC Canada Sept Manufacturing PMI, BoC's Lane speaks U of Calgary
Brazil Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI & Trade Balance
US Aug. Construction Spending
Fed Banks of Philly & Richmond co-sponsor "Reinventing Our Communities: Investing in Opportunity" keynote from CEO of Robin Hood Wes Moore (Baltimore MD thru 3rd)
Fed's Kashkari Town Hall w/Q&A (Minnetonka MN 11am)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills
Boston Fed's Rosengern on "US Outlook/Monetary Policy" at NABE (12:15pm et)
Mexico Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
Mary Daly assumes Pres/CEO roles @ San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
China & Hong Kong Holidays--China Golden Week (All Week)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand NZIER Q3 Business Confidence & QSBO Capicity Utilitiaation
         Aussie Sept CBA Manufracturing PMI, Consumer Confidence
         South Korea Aug Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Service Sector Output
         Japan Aug Loans & Discounts, Sept Monetary Base
         CoreLogic Aussie Sept House Price Index
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Meeting Rate Decision (10/02 local time)    
         Japan Sept Consumer Confidence
         UK Sept Nationwide House Price Index
         Aussie RBA Sept Commodity Index
         Spain Unemployment Change
         BoE Fiancial Policy Meeting Minutes, Markit/CIPS Sept Construction PMI
         BoE Economic Haldane chairs session @ rebuilding Macroeconomics Annual Conference (London)
         Eurozone Aug PPI
Tuesday,  Oct 02 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Brazil Aug Industrial Production
Singapore Sept Manufacturing PMI
Fed V.Chair Quarles Testimony "Implementation of the Economic Growth Regulatory Relief & Consumer Protection Act" @ US Senate Banking Cmte (D.C. 10am et)
RBA Payments Policy Chief @ Chicago Payments Symposium
FOMC Chief Powell speaks @ NABE (noon luncheon)
Holidays in China & India
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand QV Sept House Prices & ANZ Job Ads & Commodity Index
         Aussie Sept AiG performance of Services Index
         Japan Nikkei Sept Services & Composite PMI
         UK BRC Sept Shop Price Index
        Aussie Aug Building & Private House Approvals
        Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Sept Services & Composite PMI
        ECB's Mersch keynotes Latvijas Banka "Payments in the 22nd Century: Future Starts Today?" (Riga, Latvia)
        South Africa Standard Bank Sept PMI
        Swiss KOF Institute Autumn Economic Forecast
        UK Markit/CIPS Sept Services & Composite PMI
        Fed's Evans on Current US Eco Conditions & Monetary Policy
at OMFIF (London 6:30am et) 
        Eurozone Aug Retail Sales
Wed.,        Oct 03 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Fed's Barkin "Outlook for Tomorrow: Five Numbers to Watch" w/Q&A w/Media @ WVa Eco Outlook Conference (Charleston WVa (8am et)
ADP Sept Private Sector Employment Report
US PMI Sept Services Index
ISM US Sept Non-Manufacturing Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillate Report (10:30am et)
Brazil Fx Flows
Fed's Harker on "Rethinking the Labor Market & Approaches to Employment" @ "Reinventing our Communities: Investing in Opportunity" Conference (Baltimore MD noon)
Fed's Bullard (1pm et) + Fed's Mester keynote (1:15pm) & Chair of FDIC McWilliams (5:15pm) @ 6th Annual Commuunity Banking in the 21st Century Research & Policy Conference w/Q&A (St Louis Fed Reserve 2:15pm thru 4th)
Fed's Harkin closing comments @ Reinventing our Communities: Investing n Opportunity (Baltimore MD)
Holidays in China, South Korea & Germany
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         South Korea Fx reserves
         Aussie CBA Australia Sept  Services & Composite PMI
         Japan Purchases of Foreign Stocks & Bonds & vice versa
         Aussie Aug Trade Balance
         Hong Kong Sept Manufacturing PMI
         ECB member & Bk of Finland Gov. Rehn holds news conference on monetary policy & global economic situation (Helsinki)
         ECB's Nouy keynotes "FMA Aufsichtskonferenz "Der Finanzmarkt als Global Village: integriert--innovativ--international" (Vienna Austria)
         ECB's Coeure speaks to local French business community (Chateaudun Fr)
         German Markit Sept Construction PMI
         UK Sept New Car Registrations
Thurs.      Oct 04 Fed V.Chair Quarles Keynote Day 2  @ Community Banking Conference (St Louis Fed)
Challenger Sept Job-Cuts
US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Sept Ivey PMI
US Aug Factory Orders
US Aug (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments

EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 09/28)
Fed's Kaplan lectures for Anderson Chandler Lecture series events @ KS Univ of Business (Lawrence KS)
Russia Central Bank Fx Reserves
Brazil Sept Auto Production & Sales
Mexico Central Bank MPC Rate Decision
US Treasury October Refunding Announcement
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (back under $4 Trillion) & Us Money Supply
China Golden Week Holiday continues
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Construction Index & HIA Oct New Home Sales, Trade Balance & Aug retail Sales
         Japan Aug. Overall Household Spending, Labor Cash Earnings, Sept Bankruptcies, Fx reserves
         South Korea sept CPI
         RBA's Heath speaks (Canberra), Sept Fx Reserves, + Aussie Aug Retail Sales
         India Central Bank Interest Rate & Reverse REPO Rate Decision
         German Aug Factory Orders, PPI
         South Africa Sept Fx Reserves
         French Aug Current Account, Trade Balance, Gov't Budget
         Swiss Sept Fx Reserves & CPI
         Italian Aug Retail Sales
         Hong Kong Sept Fx Reserves
         UK Halifax Sept House Prices, Q2 Unit Labor Costs 
Friday,      Oct 05 Brazil sept CPI
Sept US Unemployment Report/Change/Participation (8:30am et)
Canada Sept Unemployment Report/Change/Earnings, Aug Int'l Merchandise Trade
US (F) Aug Int'l Trade Deficit
Opening Plenary Mark Zandi @ 57th Financial Literacy & Economic Education Conference  (12:30pm et Atlanta GA thru 6th)
Baker-Hughes North American/US Rig Count (1pm et)
US Aug. Consumer Credit (debt really  3pm et)
China still celebrating Golden Week Holiday
Saturday,  Oct 06 Fed's Bostic Luncheon & Teacher Awards speaker @ Financial Literacy & Eco Ed Conference on "Financial Literacy & Economic Education"  (12:30pm)
Sunday,     Oct 07 Brazilian Presidential Election
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         China Sept Fx Reserves & Foreign Direct Investment
         Caixin China Sept Services & Composite PMI
         South Korea Aug Current Account
         Swiss Sept Unemployment Rate
         German Aug Industrial Production & Import Price Index
         Singapore Sept Fx Reserves
         Eurozone Sentix Oct Investor Confidence
Monday,    Oct 08 Columbus Day--US Holiday Treasury Markets Closed
Riksbank Announces Prize in Economic Sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel
US Equity Markets Trade Regular Hours 9:30am --4pm et
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
Holidays, also, in Canada & Japan
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         UK BRC Sept Like-for-Like Sales
         Japan Aug Current Account Balance, Trade Balance, Eco Watchers Outlook
         New Zealand REINZ Sept House Sales
         Aussie NAB Business Confidence
         IMF World Economic Outlook Report
         German Aug Trade Balance (Imports/Exports), + Current Account
         IMF/World Bank Grp Joint Fall Meeting (Bali, Indonesia 9th local time--14th)
Tuesday,   Oct 09 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Canada Sept Housing Starts
Grant's Interest Rate Observer Fall Economic Conference (NY)
Dallas Fed's Kaplan speaks @ Economic Club of NY
Redbook weekly retail sales snapshot
Mexican Sept CPI
Fed's Evans opens 2018 Opportunity Finance Network Conference (Chicago 10am)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, $42B 6-month Bills, $26B 52-wk Bills & $40B 4-week Bills
Fed's Harker
on "The Importance of Higher Education to the Us Economy" @ Global Interdependence Center event on "The Roles of Higher Education in Competitiveness & Global Productivity" (Philadelphia)
South Korea Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Fed's Williams
speaks  (9:15pm & 10:35pm et) @ NY Fed/Bank Indonesia Central Banking Forum w/Q&A (Indonesia due to IMF/World Bank Fall Meeting)
        New Zealand Sept Electronic Card Spending & Retail Sales
        Japan Aug Machine Orders & Sept Machine Tool Orders
        China Sept Aggregate Financing, New Yuan Loans, Money Supply
        French & Italian Aug Industrial Production
        UK Aug & 3-month NIESR GDP, Aug Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Index of Services
         BoE's Chief Economist Haldane speaks at Advisory, Conciliation & Arbitra- tion Service Future of Work Conference (London)
Wed.         Oct 10 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
-Final demand (8:30am et)
Canada Aug Building Permits
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (10am et)
US Wholesale Inventories & Sales
US Treasury Auctions $36B 3-year Notes (11:30am et)
Fed's Evans on US Economic Outlook @ Flint & Genesee Chamber of Commerce w/Q&A (12:15pm Flint MI)
US Treasury Auctions $23B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Bostic discusses Eco Outlook @ Nat'l Ass'n of Corporate Directors w/Q&A (6pm et Atlanta GA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         RBA's Ellis speaks (Melbourne)
         South Korea Aug Current Account
         UK RICS Sept House Price Balance
         Japan Aug Current Account, Sept Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, PPI, Bank Lending, Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
         French, Spanish Sept CPI, HICP
         South African Aug Mining & Gold Production, Manufacturing Production
         ECB Releases Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
         BoE Survey on Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities
         BoE's MPC member Vlieghe on "Global & domestic challenges for UK monetary policy" @ Nat'l Bank of Belgium (Brussels)
        G20 FinMins & Central Bank Governors Meet @ IMF/World Bank Group Fall Meeting (Bali Indonesia)
         Brazil Aug Retail sales
Thursday, Oct 11 US Sept CPI (8:30am et)
Sept US Chain Store Sales (the few who still report monthly)
Canada Aug New Housing Price Index
US weekly Jobless Claims
Social Security & Veterans Benefits 2019 Inflation Adjustments (estimated date)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
EIA Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (11am et delayed by Mon. Holiday)
WASDE Report
US Treasury Auctions $15B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan M3 Money Supply
         China Sept Trade Balance (approximate date), Foreign Direct Investment
         South Korea Sept Unemployment Rate
         Singapore Q3 GDP & Aug Retail Sales
         ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
         German Sept Wholesale Price Index
         RBA Financial Stability Review, Aug Home Loans, Investment Lending
         German Sept CPI  & HICP
         Eurozone Aug Industrial Production
         India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves, sept CPI, aug Industrial Production & Manufacturing Output 
         IEA Monthly Report
         IIF Institute of International Finance Annual @ IMF/World Bk Grp mtg
Friday,       Oct 12 US Sept. Import/Export Prices
Canada Teranet/National Bank sept Home Price Index
Fed's Evans participates in discussion at ENGAGE College Investment Conference @ U.M. w/Q&A (9:30am Ann Arbor MI)
Russia Aug Trade balance
U.M. (P) Oct. Consumer Sentiment
Fed's Bostic 'chats' on recruitment, economics & public policy profession at Network of Schools of Public Policy, Affairs & Administration Conference w/Q&A (12;30pm Atlanta GA)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Brazil Holiday
     OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
          China Sept Trade Balance
Sat.           Oct 13 IMF/World Bank Grp Meeting Continues

         WEEKS AHEAD:   
10/17   FOMC Releases 09/25--26 Meeting Minutes
                                                       BoE Releases Record of 10/03 Financial Policy Cmte Mtg
                                           10/24   BoC (Canada) MPC Meets
                                                       Riksbank (Swedes) MPC Meets
                                           10/25   ECB MPC Meets
                                                       Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Meets
                                           10/31   BoJ MPC Meets
                                                   US FOMC does NOT meet in October

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices