wall street in advance

September/October 2018 Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,   Sept 23 OPEC & non-OPEC Producer Quota Allies Meet (Algeria)
U.N. General Assembly Meets (NY)
   OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        BoJ Minutes of July 30--31st MPC Meeting
        German IFO Sept Business Climate & Aug. Import/Export & Wholesale Price Indices
          Mon. 09/24 holidays in So Africa, So Korea, Japan, China
          UK Sept CBI Orders & Selling Trend Prices
          Canada Jul Wholesale Trade Sales
Monday,  Sept 24 Chicago Fed Sept Nat'l Activity Index
Dallas Fed Sept Manufacturing Survey
ECB Pres Draghi speaks @ EU Parliament ECON Cmte hearing
Brazil Aug Current Account, Foreign Direct Investment, Federal Tax Revenue
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $37B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
US Assesses Tariffs on another $200B Chinese Goods Imported to US
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Japan Corporate Services Price Index Aug Supermarket Sales
        BoJ Chief Kuroda speaks to biz leaders (Osaka)
        ECB's Praet, Coeure + US Larry Summers speak at ECB 3rd Annual Research Conference "Saving the Heartland" (Frankfurt Germany)
        Spain PPI
        Norges Bank Gov Olsen speaks at Centre for Monetary Economics/BI Norwegian Business School
        Italian Jul Trade Balance
        BoE's Vlieghe speaks @Imperial College Business School (London)
        Brazil MPC Meeting Minutes Released + Inflation Report
        Risk.net 7th Annual Liquidity & funding Risk Conference (London)
        Tues. 09/25 holidays in Hong Kong & South Korea
Tuesday, Sept 25 FOMC 2-day Meeting Begins
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Philly Fed non-Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey 
S&P Case Shiller Jul 20-city Home Price Index
FHFA Jul House Price Index

Conference Board's Sept Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed Sept Manufacturing Index
Dallas Fed Services Revenues
US Treasury Auctions $17B reopened 2-year FRN Notes (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Aug Trade Balance & Sept ANZ Consumer + Biz Confidence Indexes
         Credit Suisse Sept Swiss Survey Expectations & Sept ZEW Expectations
         UK Aug BBA Loans for House Purchases, CBI Sept Reported Sales, Total Distributed Reported Sales
         South Korea Holiday Wed. 09/26 (local time)
         ECB's Mersch & Smets speak at digital finance conference (Brussels)
         ECB Pres Draghi receives German Pres. Steinmeier at ECB Hdqtrs (Frankfurt)
         Singapore Aug Industrial Production
Wed.       Sept 26 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US Aug New Home Sales
Brazil Aug Bank Lending
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et, w/e 09/21)
Google, Amazon, Twitter & Facebook testify at US Senate Commerce Cmte
FPA Foreign Policy Ass'n World Leadership Forum: US+China Taking Stock & Looking Ahead (NY timed to coincide with U.M. GA)
FOMC post-Meeting Rate Decision + SEP (Member Financial Forecasts 2pm et)
FOMC Gov Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
T-2 for End of Month/Quarter
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:

         RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Interest Rate Decision, Policy Statement & Press Conference
         China Aug Swift Global Payments, Industrial Profits
         Aussie Aug Job Vacancies
         BoJ's Kuroda speaks (Tokyo) 
         German Oct GfK Consumer Confidence, Aug Retail Sales, Sept CPI
         French Aug Consumer Spending
         Italy Aug Unemployment Rate & PPI
         Hong Kong Aug Exports/Imports
         ECB Releases Economic Bulletin
         South Africa Aug PPI
         Canada CFIB Sept Business Barometer
         BoE's Haldane panelist @ Money, Macro, & Finance Research Conf.  (London)
         BoE's Carney panel chair on "Sustainable Finance" at 3rd European Systemic Risk Board Annual Conference (Frankfurt) (Frankfurt)
Thursday, Sept 27 US Aug Durable Goods Orders/Shipments
US Aug Int'l Trade Deficit
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Q2 Corporate Profits
US (Adv) Aug Retail Inventories
US (Adv) Aug Wholesale Inventories
SEC Chair Clayton fireside chat at Rosenblatt 11th Global Leader Exchange (NY)
US Aug Pending Home Sales Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
WSJ Global Food Forum w/speakers like USDA, FDA, GRUB, IBM, US Sec'y of Ag Sonny Purdue, SFM, Syngenta, HSY, Bayer, BG, EU @ globalfood.wsj.com
K.C. Fed Sept Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $31B 7-year Note (1pm et Duration helped by hike Wed?)
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
Fed's Kaplan on "What you Really Need to Lead: The Pow3er of Thinking and Acting like an Owner"  @ Forum for Minorities in Banking (K.C. Fed thru 28th)
Fed Balance Sheet (Shrinkage increases starting Oct) + US weekly Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        BoC's Poloz
speaks @ Atlantic Provinces EconomicCouncil (New Brunswick)
        New Zealand Aug Building Permits
        UK GfK Sept Consumer Confidence + Lloyds Business Barometer
        Japan Aug Jobless Rate/Change, Sept CPI, BoJ Sept Mtg Summary of Opinions, Aug Retail Trade, Industrial Production
       China Q2 (F) Current Account Balance
       UK  Sept Nationwide House Price Index
       Aussie Aug Private Sector & Housing Credit
       Caixin China Sept Manufacturing PMI
       Singapore Aug Bank Lending
       Japan Jul Vehicle Production, Aug Construction Orders & Housing Starts
       German Sept Unemployment Rate/Claims/Change
       UK Q2 Current Account Balance, GDP, Total Business Investment, HPI
       BoE's Ramsden speaks @ Society of Prof. Economists Annual (London)
       Eurozone, French, German, Italy, Spain Sept CPI & HICP
       India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Aug Federal Fiscal Deficit, Infrastructure Output
Friday,    Sept 28 US Aug Personal Income/Expenditures + Savings/PCE
Canada Jul GDP, Aug Industrial & Raw Materials Price Indices
Brazil Unemployment Rate
South Africa Aug Trade Balance
Chicago Sept PMI
Fed's Barkin speaks @ Forum for Minorities in Banking
BoE's Ramsden speaks (London)
Brazil Aug Budget Balance
U.M. final Sept Consumer Sentiment
India Q2 Foreign Debt
Canada Budget Balance
Baker-Hughes weekly Rig Count
NY Fed's Williams keynotes "Reserve Reductions, Money Markets & Future Frameworks" Columbia Univ School of Int'l & Public Affairs & NY Fed Joint event with Q&A (4:45pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
         Fed's Williams
(4:45pm et) & ECB's Hothausen, BoJ Shimizu, speak at Columbia Univ School of Int'l Affairs & Fed Reserve Bank of NY Joint "Reesrve Reductions, Money Markets, and Future Frameworks  Conference" (NY)
Sat.          Sept 29 China Sept Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI
Sunday,   Sept 30     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Caixin China Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Manufacturing Index
         South Korea Oct Manufacturing BSI Index & Sept Trade Balance, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI 
         Japan Q3 Tankan Index, Outlook + Sept Official Reserve Assets
         Swiss Q3 Real Estate Index of Family Homes
         Ward's Total US Sept Vehicle Sales
         Japan Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI, Sept Vehicle Sales
         India Nikkei/Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Swiss Aug Retail Sales & Sept SVME Manufacturning PMI
         German Aug Retail Sales & Import Price Index
         Russia Sept Markit Manufacturing PMI
         Spain Aug Retail Sales
         Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Sept Manufacturing PMI
         BoE Aug Net Consumer Credit, UK Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending, M4, Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate
         South Africa Manufacturing PMI, Sept Total Vehicle Sales
         BoE MPC member Tenreyro @ Rebuilding Macroeconomics Annual Conf on "Bringing Psychology & Social Sciences into Macroeconomics" (London)
        China Golden Week Holiday throughout the week thru 10/06.
Monday,  Oct 01 Sept US Manufacturing PMI
US Sept ISM Manufacturing Index/Employment/Prices Paid/Orders (10am et)
US Sept Motor Vehicle Sales
RBC Canada Sept Manufacturing PMI, BoC's Lane speaks U of Calgary
Brazil Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI & Trade Balance
US Aug. Construction Spending
Fed Banks of Philly & Richmond co-sponsor "Reinventing Our Communities: Investing in Opportunity" keynote from CEO of Robin Hood Wes Moore (Baltimore MD thru 3rd)
Fed's Kashkari Town Hall w/Q&A (Minnetonka MN 11am)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills
Boston Fed's Rosengern on "US Outlook/Monetary Policy" at NABE (12:15pm et)
Mexico Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
Mary Daly assumes Pres/CEO roles @ San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
China & Hong Kong Holidays--China Golden Week (All Week)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand NZIER Q3 Business Confidence & QSBO Capicity Utilitiaation
         Aussie Sept CBA Manufracturing PMI, Consumer Confidence
         South Korea Aug Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Service Sector Output
         Japan Aug Loans & Discounts, Sept Monetary Base
         CoreLogic Aussie Sept House Price Index
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Meeting Rate Decision (10/02 local time)    
         Japan Sept Consumer Confidence
         UK Sept Nationwide House Price Index
         Aussie RBA Sept Commodity Index
         Spain Unemployment Change
         BoE Fiancial Policy Meeting Minutes, Markit/CIPS Sept Construction PMI
         BoE Economic Haldane chairs session @ rebuilding Macroeconomics Annual Conference (London)
         Eurozone Aug PPI
Tuesday,  Oct 02 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Brazil Aug Industrial Production
Singapore Sept Manufacturing PMI
Fed V.Chair Quarles Testimony "Implementation of the Economic Growth Regulatory Relief & Consumer Protection Act" @ US Senate Banking Cmte (D.C. 10am et)
RBA Payments Policy Chief @ Chicago Payments Symposium
FOMC Chief Powell speaks @ NABE (noon luncheon)
Holidays in China & India
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand QV Sept House Prices & ANZ Job Ads & Commodity Index
         Aussie Sept AiG performance of Services Index
         Japan Nikkei Sept Services & Composite PMI
         UK BRC Sept Shop Price Index
        Aussie Aug Building & Private House Approvals
        Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Sept Services & Composite PMI
        ECB's Mersch keynotes Latvijas Banka "Payments in the 22nd Century: Future Starts Today?" (Riga, Latvia)
        South Africa Standard Bank Sept PMI
        Swiss KOF Institute Autumn Economic Forecast
        UK Markit/CIPS Sept Services & Composite PMI
        Fed's Evans on Current US Eco Conditions & Monetary Policy
at OMFIF (London 6:30am et) 
        Eurozone Aug Retail Sales
Wed.,        Oct 03 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Fed's Barkin "Outlook for Tomorrow: Five Numbers to Watch" w/Q&A w/Media @ WVa Eco Outlook Conference (Charleston WVa (8am et)
ADP Sept Private Sector Employment Report
US PMI Sept Services Index
ISM US Sept Non-Manufacturing Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillate Report (10:30am et)
Brazil Fx Flows
Fed's Harker on "Rethinking the Labor Market & Approaches to Employment" @ "Reinventing our Communities: Investing in Opportunity" Conference (Baltimore MD noon)
Fed's Bullard (1pm et) + Fed's Mester keynote (1:15pm) & Chair of FDIC McWilliams (5:15pm) @ 6th Annual Commuunity Banking in the 21st Century Research & Policy Conference w/Q&A (St Louis Fed Reserve 2:15pm thru 4th)
Fed's Harkin closing comments @ Reinventing our Communities: Investing n Opportunity (Baltimore MD)
Holidays in China, South Korea & Germany
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         South Korea Fx reserves
         Aussie CBA Australia Sept  Services & Composite PMI
         Japan Purchases of Foreign Stocks & Bonds & vice versa
         Aussie Aug Trade Balance
         Hong Kong Sept Manufacturing PMI
         ECB member & Bk of Finland Gov. Rehn holds news conference on monetary policy & global economic situation (Helsinki)
         ECB's Nouy keynotes "FMA Aufsichtskonferenz "Der Finanzmarkt als Global Village: integriert--innovativ--international" (Vienna Austria)
         ECB's Coeure speaks to local French business community (Chateaudun Fr)
         German Markit Sept Construction PMI
         UK Sept New Car Registrations
Thurs.      Oct 04 Fed V.Chair Quarles Keynote Day 2  @ Community Banking Conference (St Louis Fed)
Challenger Sept Job-Cuts
US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Sept Ivey PMI
US Aug Factory Orders
US Aug (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments

EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 09/28)
Fed's Kaplan lectures for Anderson Chandler Lecture series events @ KS Univ of Business (Lawrence KS)
Russia Central Bank Fx Reserves
Brazil Sept Auto Production & Sales
Mexico Central Bank MPC Rate Decision
US Treasury October Refunding Announcement
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (back under $4 Trillion) & Us Money Supply
China Golden Week Holiday continues
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Construction Index & HIA Oct New Home Sales, Trade Balance & Aug retail Sales
         Japan Aug. Overall Household Spending, Labor Cash Earnings, Sept Bankruptcies, Fx reserves
         South Korea sept CPI
         RBA's Heath speaks (Canberra), Sept Fx Reserves, + Aussie Aug Retail Sales
         India Central Bank Interest Rate & Reverse REPO Rate Decision
         German Aug Factory Orders, PPI
         South Africa Sept Fx Reserves
         French Aug Current Account, Trade Balance, Gov't Budget
         Swiss Sept Fx Reserves & CPI
         Italian Aug Retail Sales
         Hong Kong Sept Fx Reserves
         UK Halifax Sept House Prices, Q2 Unit Labor Costs 
Friday,      Oct 05 Brazil sept CPI
Sept US Unemployment Report/Change/Participation (8:30am et)
Canada Sept Unemployment Report/Change/Earnings, Aug Int'l Merchandise Trade
US (F) Aug Int'l Trade Deficit
Opening Plenary Mark Zandi @ 57th Financial Literacy & Economic Education Conference  (12:30pm et Atlanta GA thru 6th)
Baker-Hughes North American/US Rig Count (1pm et)
US Aug. Consumer Credit (debt really  3pm et)
China still celebrating Golden Week Holiday
Saturday,  Oct 06 Fed's Bostic Luncheon & Teacher Awards speaker @ Financial Literacy & Eco Ed Conference on "Financial Literacy & Economic Education"  (12:30pm)

         WEEKS AHEAD:   
10/24   BoC (Canada) MPC Meets
                                                       Riksbank (Swedes) MPC Meets
                                           10/25    ECB MPC Meets
                                                       Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Meets
                                           10/31    BoJ MPC Meets
                                                   US FOMC does NOT meet in October

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices