wall street in advance

November/December 2018 Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Nov 25     OVERNIGHT into US Mon a.m. et:
         New Zealand Q3 Retail Sales
         RBA's Lowe speaks (Sydney)
         Japan/Nikkei Nov Manufacturing PMI
         RBA Ass't Gov  Kent speaks (Sydeny)
         Singapore Oct Industrial Production
         German IFO Nov Business Current Conditions/Dec Expectations
         Swiss Q3 Employment Level
         Hong Kong Oct Trade Balance
         ECB's Praet speaks (Frankfurt)
         UK Oct BBA Loans for House Purchases, BoE's Exec Dir for UK Deposit Takers Supervision, Proudman, speaks at Cass Business School (London)
         ECB's Novotny & Coeure speak @ BoE Macrofinancial modelling & forecasting Conference, via CCBS--Centre for Central Banking Studies on "How to Finance Cohesion in Europe" (Vienna)
         Paris Europlace for Sustainable Finance (Paris FR thru 28th)
         Russia Oct GDP        
Monday,  Nov 26 G20 Pre-Summit Activities w/Sherpas & Partners start (Buenos Aires Argentina thru 12/01)
Chicago Fed Nov Activity Index (8:30am et)
ECB's Draghi testifies at European Parliament Eco & Monetary Affairs (Brussels)
The Clearing House & Bank Policy Institute Annual Conference (NY thru 28th)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions 3-, & 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $39B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
BoE Gov Carney, The Economist editor Wooldridge, & former FOMC Chief Alan Greenspan discuss "Capitalism in America: A History" @ Policy Exchange (UK)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Oct Trade Balance
         Japan Oct Corporate Services Price Index & CPI
         German Oct Retail Sales
         China Oct Industrial Profits
          UK Nov CBI Reported Nov Sales
/Total Distributed Reported Sales
          Brazil Oct Current Account + Foreign Direct Investment
          BoE Dir for Banknotes, Cleland, speaks @ Payments International (London)
          BoE Gov Carney participates in online Q&A on Future of Money
Tuesday,  Nov 27 Fed Gov Clarida keynote @ Clearing House Conference (NY 7:45am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (includes Black Friday)
S&P Case Shiller Sept 20-City Home Price Index (9am)
FHFA Sept House Price Index
Conference Board's Nov Consumer Confidence (10am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am)
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Annual Agriculture Conference (Chicago)
JPMorgan Fixed Income Markets 2019 Outlook Conference (NY)
US Treasury Auctions $40B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Bostic, Evans, & George panelists on "Financial Innovation, the Economy, Regulation, and the Future of Payments" w/Q&A at Clearing House Conference (2:30pm NY)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed a.m. et:
         RBNZ (New Zealand) Publishes Financial Stability Report
         UK Nov Nationwide House Price Index, BRC Shop Price Index
         Banxico (Mexico) Inflation Report
         Aussie Q3 Construction Work Achieved
         BoE Financial Stability Report & Stress Test Results Published
         Swiss Nov ZEW Conditions & Expectations
         ECB Conference on Investment, Technological Transformation & Skills (Luxembourg thru 29th)
         Eurozone y/o/y Private Sector Loans
Wed.,        Nov 28 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
G20 Sherpas & Partners Joint meeting (Buenos Aires)
Brazil Oct Bank Lending/ Fx Flows
US Q3 GDP/Business Investment/Personal Consumption/Wages  (8:30am et)
US Oct Int'l Trade Deficit
Q3 Corporate Profts 
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
US (adv) Oct Wholesale & Retail Inventories
US Oct New Home Sales (10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (w/e 11/23)
FOMC Chief Powell speaks @ Economic Club of NY luncheon (11:30--2pm)
US Treasury Auctions $18B reopened 2-year FRN (11:30am)
FDIC Chairperson McWilliams Keynotes Clearing House Lunch (noon)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
FOMC Minutes of its Nov. 07--08 Meeting  (2pm)
Fed Reserve Board publishes its 1st semiannual report on Board's Assessment of Financial Stability Conditions (D.C. 4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et
        Japan Oct Retail Trade, Foreign Direct Investment 
        Aussie Q3 Private CapEx, HIA Oct New Home Sales
        South Africa Oct Private Sector Credit
        China Oct Swift Global Payments
        BoJ's Masai speaks to business leaders w/Press Conferencce (Fukuoka)
        Swiss Q3 + YTD GDP
        Norges Bank (Norway) overseer of Wealth Fund speaks on the fund (Oslo)
        French Q3 GDP, Oct Consumer Spending
        Norges Bank Gov Olsen speaks @ Nordea Wholesale Banking Annual Dinner
        Spain Nov CPI & HICP + Retail Sales
        German Nov. Unemployment/Change, CPI, HICP
        BoE Oct Net Consumer Credit, Net Lending on Dwellings, M4 Money Supply
        Eurozone Nov Business, Industrial, Services, & Consumer Confidence
        2nd CEBRA (Central Bk Resarch Ass'n) Int'l Finance & Macroeconomics Programme--"Risk, volatility & Central Bank Policies" (Madrid Spain thru 30th)
        Brazil Unemployment Rate, BCB MPC Meeting
        ECB, Fed Reserve Board & Fed Reserve Bk of NY Global Research Forum on Int'l Macroeconics & Finance (Frankfurt DE thru 30th)
        Canada CFIB Nov Business Barometer
Thurs.      Nov 29 US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am)
US Sept Personal Income/Outlays + PCE
Russia Central Bank Fx Reserves
CFTC Chair Giancarlo lunch keynote @ Treasury Office + Fed Reserve Bk of Cleveland co-sponsor Financial Stability:Markets & Spillover Conference (D.C. thru 30th)
Canada Q3 Current Account Balance
NAR Oct Pending Home Sales (10am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (w/e 11/23)
Fed's Mester opens "Collaboration for Inclusive Economic Development: A forum for philanthropies, policymakers & practitioners" @ Boston Fed Bank (2pm et)
Fed's Evans panelist on "Collaboration for Inclusive Economic Development" w/Q&A @ Boston Fed event (2pm et)
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
"Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st Century America" @ Boston Fed (3:30pm New England Study Group--includes Lawrence Summers)
Fed's weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30om et)
G20 FinMins Dinner (Buenos Aires)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
        South Korea Oct Building Consents, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Service Sector Output  & MPC Interest Rate Decision
         New Zealand Oct Building Permits, Nov Consumer Confidence
         Japan Oct Unemployment Rate/Change, Nov Industrial Production, CPI    
         UK Lloyds Nov Business Barometer, GfK Consumer Confidence, Nov UK Nationwide House Price Index
         Aussie Oct Private Sector Credit
         China Nov Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing + Composite PMIs
         Japan Sept  Vehicle Production, Oct Housing Starts
, Construction Orders
         India Oct Federal Fiscal Deficit
        Eurozone Oct Unemployment Rate/Change. Nov CPI
         Italy Q3 GDP
         Brazil Oct Budget Balance, Q3 GDP, Debt/GDP Ratio
         South Africa Oct Trade Balance
         French CPI & HICP
Friday,     Nov 30 G20 Leaders Summit opened by Argentine Pres. Marcri's plenary session @ 12:30pm local time (10:30am est) streamed, live on YouTube (GOOGL)
Trump &  Jinping expected to meet on tariffs & trade
(Buenos Aires Argentina thru 12/01)
Canada Sept GDP
, Oct Industrial & Raw Materials Prices
Fed's Williams panelist on "The Global Economy: Addressing a Future Downturn" @ 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty (9am et NY)
Chicago Nov PMI (9:45am)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat a.m. et:
        South Korea Nov Trade Balance
Sat.          Dec 01 SNB Chief Jordan speaks about importance of academic research (Bern Suisse)
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (aka AMLO) sworn in as new President of Mexico
Argentine Pres. Macri press briefing on G20 Summit's main conclusion, followed by press briefings from other G20 leaders who choose to hold one (streamed on YouTube)
US Pres. Trump & China's Xi Jinping dine together at G20 to defuse tariff war
Sunday,    Dec 02   OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
       Aussie AiG Nov Performance of Manufacturing Index, CBA Nov PMI Manufacturing, CoreLogic House Price Index
        New Zealand Q3 Terms of Trade Index, Trade Balance
        Japan Q3 CapEx, Company Profits/Sales, Oct Loans & Discounts, Nov official Fx Reserves
        Aussie ANZ Job Ads, Q3 Biz Inventories, Company Operating Profits, Oct Building Approvals, Private House Approvals, Nov RBA Commodity Index
        China Caixin Nov Manufacturing PMI
        Japan Nov Vehicle Sales, Manufacrturing PMI
        So. Korea Nikkei Nov Manfuacturing PMI 
        Swiss Oct Retail Sales, Nov SVME Manufacturing PMI + Total Sight Deposits
        Wards Nov Total US Vehicle Sales
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI
        South Africa Nov Manufacturing PMI, Total Vehicle Sales
        Singapore Nov Manufacturing PMI
        UK Markit Nov Manufacturing PMI
        Danish Financial Sector Annual Meeting w/Speeches by Central Bk Gov Rohde, Biz minister Jarlov, tax Minister Lauritzen + Others
         Eurozone FinMins meet on deeper integration, deposit guarantee scheme, euro zone budget
Monday,   Dec 03 NY Fed's Williams introductory remarks (9:15am), CFTC's Giancarlo, +Fed Gov Brainard (10:30am)   speak @ 4th Annual "Evolving Structure of the US Treasury Market" (NY Fed)
Fed V. Chair Quarles moderated Q&A on Eco Outlook, Inflation, Monetary Policy @ Council for Foreign Relations C. Peter McColough Series (NY)
RBC Nov Canadian Manufacturing PMI
PMI Nov Manufacturing Index
ISM Nov Mnftng Index/Oders/Shipments/Prices Paid/Employment (10am et)
Whitney Tilson Workshop on Shorting (NY)
US Oct Construction Spending
Mexico Nov Manufacturing PMI
US Treasury Auctions $39B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
BoE MPC Member Haldane speaks @ Annual Cambridge Public Policy Lecture
Fed's Kaplan speaks at Fed Reserve Bk of Dallas/TX A&M Community Forum w/Q&A (1pm Laredo TX)
Brazil Nov Trade Balance
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         South Korea Q3 GDP, Nov CPI
         UK BRC Nov Like for Like Sales
         Aussie Q3 Current Account Balance, Net Exports % of GDP
         Swiss Nov CPI
         French Gov't Budget
         Spain Unemployment
         Riksbank (Sweden) Dpty Gov Jansson comments on "Insurance--for Safe & Sustainable Development" Report
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Announces on Rate Decision (12/04 local time)
         BoE Gov Carney testifies at UK Parliament (Risk of No-Deal Brexit), + Meeting Minutes
         Riksbank  Dpty Gov Skingsley panelist on cryptocurrencies @FT Banking Summit (London)
         South Africa Q3 GDP
         Brazil Oct Industrial Production
         Eurozone Oct PPI
         Milken Institute London Summit (London)
Tuesday,  Dec 04 Federal Energy Policy Summit (D.C. thru 6th)
Fed's Williams panelist on local employment/labor force trends in 2nd District (NY)
BoE Insurance Exec Dir Rule participates @ 6th Insurance Risk & Capital Conf. (London)
US Nov Motor Vehicle Sales
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Treasury Auctions 4-, 8-, & $26B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
API Petroleum & Derivatives Data Every Tuesday After Close
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
       BoE's Villeghe speaks @ Plymouth Manufacturing Group Christmas Lecture (UK)
        ECB's Draghi, bank supervisor Nouy, ECB MPC Lautenschlager & European Banking Authority Chair Enria speak at conference on bank supervision (Frankfurt)
        New Zealand ANZ Nov Job Ads
        Aussie AiG Nov Performance of Services Index
        New Zealand Q3 Volume of All Buildings, ANZ Nov Commodity Prices
        Aussie CBA Nov Services & Composite PMI
        Japan Nikkei Nov Services & Composite PMI
        Aussie Q3 GDP
        BoJ's Wakatabe speaks (Niigata)
        Hong Kong Nov Manufacturing PMI
        China Nov Caixin Services & Composite PMI
        India Nikkei Nov Services PMI
        Russia Markit Nov Services PMI
        South Africa Standard Bank Nov PMI
        Markit Nov Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Services & Composite PMI
        India Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio, Reverse REPO Rate
        BoE publishes Record of the Financial Policy meeting (11/20) + its final Assessment of the Health of Britain's Banks + Financial System before Brexit
        UK Nov New Car Registrations, Oct Official Reserves, Markit/CIPS Nov Services & Composite PMI (JLR issuing rolling plant closures)
        Eurozone Oct Retail Sales 
Wed.        Dec 05 MBA sweekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US Q3 Productivity & Costs (8:30am et)
Canada Q3 Labor Productivity
US Nov Services & Composite PMI Index (9:45am)
Brazil Nov Services & Composite PMI, FX Flows
FOMC Chief Powell testimony @ Jt Economic Cmte of US Congress (CANCELLED due to G. H. WE. Bush funeral )
BoC (Canada) MPC Rate Decision + Poloz Press Conference
Fed's Beige Book (due on Wed. as originally scheduled @ 2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thur. a.m. et:
        Aussie Oct Trade Balance & Retail Sales
        German Oct Factory Orders, Construction PMI
        ECB's Guindos speaks (Frankfurt)
        RBA's Debelle speaks (Sydney)
        BoE exec Dir for Markets, Hauser, participates in The Finance Hive: FX (UK)
        OPEC 175th (Ordinary) Meeting (Vienna Austria 12/06 local time)
Thursday, Dec 06 Challenger Nov Job-Cut Report (GM cut 14.6K  7:30am)
Canada Oct Int'l Merchandise Trade Balance
ADP Nov Private-Sector Employment Report  (Rescheduled from Wed. 8:15am)
Russia CPI
US ISM non-Manufacturing Index (rescheduled from Wed. 10am et)
NRF Nov Chain Store Sales (Includes Thanksgiving weekend)
US Oct. Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am)
US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Ivey Nov PMI
Canada Oct Trade Balance
Brazil Nov Auto Production & Sales
US Oct Factory Orders/Durable Goods Orders/Capital Goods Orders (10am et)
Tech Roundtable @ White House w/MSFT, ORCL, QCOM, GOOGL, confirmed as of this post (D.C.)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (Rescheduled from Wed. 10:30am et; w/e 11/30)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement includes 10-, & 30-year Notes (pre-FOMC)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (amounts not announced as of this post)
Fed's Bostic on US Eco Outlook @ Georgia Economic Outlook (12:15pm Atlanta)
US Q3 Household Net Worth
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (Shrinking in the background) + US Money Supply
Fed's Williams moderated discussion w/former BoE Gov Mervyn King @London School of Economics Foundation event in NY (6:30pm et)
BoC (Canada) Gov  Poloz speech about yesterday's rate decision (Toronto)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Nov Performance of Construction
         Japan Oct Overall Household Spending, Reuters Dec Tankan Index
         UK CBI Dec Total Orders/Selling Price Trends
         Aussie Nov Fx Reserves & Trade Balance
         German Oct Industrial Production & Factory Orders
         French Oct Industrial Production, Trade Balance
         China Nov FX Reserves
         Eurozone Q3 GDP, Employment, Change, Labor Costs, Gross Fixed Capital, Gov't Expenditure, Household Consumption
         UK Halifax Nov House Prices, RICS House Price Balance, Inflation Expectations
         Italian Oct Retail Sales
         OPEC+ non-OPEC Producers Meet on Oil Production Quotas to Boost Prices
Friday,      Dec 07 US Nov Unemployment Rate/Participation/Change/Continuing Claims/Hrly Wage
Canada Nov Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Hrly Wage, Nov Housing Starts
U.M. (P) Dec '18 Consumer Sentiment
US Oct Wholesale Trade (10am et)
OPEC & non-OPEC Oil Producers May Announce Quotas (10am et, 4pm Vienna)
Fed Gov Brainard on financial stability issues @ Peterson Institute for Int'l Studies (12:15pm D.C.)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm)
BoC Gov Poloz last speech of year @CF Toronto Eaton Centre
US Oct Consumer Credit (3pm et Debt direction usually coincides with Retail Sales direction)
U.S. Federal Government Funding Ends at Midnight
Medicare Enrollment for 2019 Ends at Midnight
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:

         China Nov Trade Balance, Foreign Direct Investment 
Saturday, Dec 08

         WEEKS AHEAD:  
12/11    Britain's Parliament Votes on PM May's Brexit Deal
                                          12/13    ECB MPC Meets
                                                        SNB (Swiss) MPC Meets
                                                        Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
                                          12/16     ECB's Draghi & Bundesbank's Weidmann speak (Frankfurt)
                                                        Chico Fed's Evans Q&A @ Fixed Income Forum Roundtable (Chicago)
                                    12/18--19   FOMC Meets
                                           12/19   FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference
post-Expected Rate Hike
                                                       BoJ's Kuroda & Bk of France's de Galhau speak @ Europlace Int'l Fin Forum
                                           12/20   BoE MPC Meets
                                                       BoJ MPC Meets
                                                       Riksbank (Sweden) MPC Meets
                                                       Bk of Mexico MPC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price