wall street in advance

January 2018   Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,      Dec. 31 Happy New Year!
Monday,    Jan. 01 Richmond Fed's New Pres, Thomas Barkin, Assumes the Role
Happy New Year! Global Markets Closed
G-7 Presidency shifts to Canada
   OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Dec Performance of Manufacturing Index +CoreLogic House Price Index + Dec RBA Commodity Index
         German Nov Retail Sales
         China Caixin Dec Manufacturing PMI
         Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, & UK Dec Manufaturing PMI
         Canada RBC Dec Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday,   Jan. 02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills + $20B 52-week Bills + $50B 4-week Bills   (Starts 11:30am et)
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Run-off Doubles to $12B in Treasuries & $8B in Agency MBS through 18Q1
Japan, Russia, Switzerland among those still celebrating New Year
   OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Swiss Dec Manufacturing PMI
        UK Markit/CIPS Dec Construction PMI
Wed.         Jan. 03 US Dec. 2017 Motor Vehicle Sales
MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (covering slowest week of the year)
US ISM Dec. Manufacturing Index
US Nov Construction Spending
FOMC Minutes
of the Meeting Concluded on 12/13/17  (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         Aussie CBA + AiG Australia Dec Services PMI
         China Caixin Dec Services & Composite PMI
         UK Dec Nationwide House Prices
         Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Dec. (F) Services PMI

         UK Official Dec FX Reserves, Nov Consumer Credit + Loans for Dwellings, Nov Mortgage Approvals +M4 Nov Money Supply
         UK Markit/CIPS Dec Services & Composite PMI
Thursday, Jan. 04 US Dec Chain Store Sales (7 still report but those with upside surprises could, too)
Challenger Dec. Job-Cut Report
ADP Dec Private Company Employment Report
Weekly US Jobless Claims
Canada Nov Industrial Products & Raw Materials Price Indices
US PMI Dec Services Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e/12/29 @10:30am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (11am weather could have slowed builds)
US Refunding Announcement includes 30 & 10-yr Notes +30-yr Bonds 11am)
Fed's Bullard "US Economy & Monetary Policy" @Meltzer's Contributions to Monetary Economics & Public Policy w/Q&A (Philadelphia 1:30pm et)
Fed's weekly Balance Sheet & Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan Dec Monetary Base
         UK BRC Dec. Shop Price Index
         Aussie Nov Trade Balance
         Japan Nikkei Dec Services & Composite PMI + Vehicle Sales
         Swiss Dec FX Reserves
         UK Dec New Car Registrations & Q3 Unit Labor costs
         Markit Eurozone, France, German & Italian Dec Retail PMI          
         Eurozone Nov PPI
         Canada Nov Int'l Merchandise Trade, Dec Unemployment Rate/Participation
Friday,     Jan. 05 US Dec. Unemployment Report/Change/Participation, + Avg Hrly Earnings
US Nov Int'l Trade Deficit
US Dec Factory Orders
US ISM Dec Services Index
US Nov (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments 
Fed's Harker on Economic Outlook w/Q&A @ASSA Annual Mtg @AEA--American Economic Association Annual Meeting   (Philadelphia thru 7th 10:15am)
Fed's Mester panelist on "Coordinating Conventional & Unconventional Monetary Policies for Macroeconomic Stability" @Allied Social Sciences Ass'n Annual (12:30pm et) Fed's Rosengren panelist @ASSA/AEA Annual Conference; Fed's Harker, Martin Feldstein & Jeremy Stein also speakers
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Saturday,  Jan 06 NY Fed Top Trader/VP SImon Potter  panelist "The Balance Sheets of Central Banks and the Shortage of Safe Assets @ ASSA/AEA Annual
Fed's Mester
on "Integrating Financial Stability with Monetary Policy" @Allied Social Sciences Ass'n Annual Meeting   (Philadelphia 10:15am et) BoE's Haldane,  OECD's Mann, Brookings Institution's Ben Bernanke, Yale's Robert Shiller, Peterson Institute's Olivier Blanchard, and reps from World Bank, IMF, & more, also speak @AEA (thru 01/07)
Sunday,     Jan 07 Fed's Williams @ASSA/AEA Annual Mtg on "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices"
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         China Dec Foreign Direct Investment
         Aussie Dec. FX Reserves & AiG Dec Construction Index
         German Factory/Manufacturers' Orders
         South Africa Dec FX Reserves + Manufacturing PMI
         Swiss Dec CPI
         UK Halifax Dec. Home Price Index
         European Commission Conference on EU's 'next long-term budget after Brexit' (Brussels to Jan 9th) 
         Singapore Dec FX Reserves
         Eurozone Sentix Jan Investor, Industrial, Services & Business Economic Confidence/Sentiment/Outlook, & Nov. Retail Sales
        CFIB Q4 Outlook for Future Sales
Monday,   Jan 08 Fed's Williams on "Should the Fed Stick with the 2% Inflation Target or Rethink It?" @Brookings Institution "The Options: Keep It, Tweak It, or Replace It?" followed by Fed's Rosengren at same event, on "Next Steps: Learning from the Bank of Canada" (D.C.)
Bk of Canada Q4 Senior Loan Officer Survey
Conference Board's Dec Employment Trends Index
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills
Fed's Bostic on Economic Outlook @ Rotary Club of (Atlanta)
TD Ameritrade US IMX
US Consumer Credit
   OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        New Zealand REINZ Dec House Sales
        Japan Nov Labor Cash Earnings, Dec Consumer Confidence
        UK BRC Dec Like-for-Like Sales
        Aussie Nov Building Approvals & Job Ads
        German & French Merchandise Trade Balance, Industrial Production
        SNB (Swiss Nat'l Bk) Preliminary Full Year Results, Dec. Unemployment Rate,  Nov Adjusted Retail Sales
       Italy Nov Unemployment Rate
       Brazil Nov Retail Sales
       South Africa Dec Total Vehicle Sales
       Eurozone Nov. Unemployment Rate
Tuesday,   Jan 09 US NFIB Jan. Business Optimism Index
Canada Dec. Housing Starts
Redbook weekly Store Sales Snapshot
US Nov. JOLTS (Job Openings & Turnover)
Fed's Kashkari
moderated Q&A hosted by Cargill (CAG)
US Treasury Auctions $24B 3-year Notes
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         South Korea Dec Unemployment Rate
         Aussie NAB Business Confidence
         China Dec. PPI & CPI
         Swiss Dec FX Reserves, Real Estate Index of Q4 Family Home
         China Dec Aggregate Financing & Money Supply, New Yuan Loans
         ECB Minutes of the December MPC Meeting
         German Dec Wholesale Price Index
         French Industrial Production
         UK Nov. Industrial Production, Construction & Manufacturing Output, Nov. Merchandise Trade Balance 
         Germany Auctions 10-year Bunds
         Brazil Dec CPI
         Russia GDP & CPI
Wed.,        Jan 10 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Fed's Evans
on Economy & Policy Outlook @ Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Rotary Club
Fed's Kaplan discussion @Urban Land Institute Emerging Trends Breakfast
US Dec. Import/Export Prices
Canada Nov Building Permits
Fed's Kaplan discussion on Weitzman Annual Retail Forecast (Dallas)
Brazil FX Flows
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
US Nov (F) Wholesale Inventories & Trade
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Status (w/e 01/05/18)
US Treasury Auctions $20B reopened 10-year Notes
Fed's Bullard on US Economy & Monetary Policy (St. Louis)
Swedish  Central Bank minutes of its MPC meeting
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         New Zealand QV Dec House Prices
         Aussie Retail Sales
         Italian Retail Sales
         Eurozone & Spanish Nov Industrial Production
         Eurogroup PRes Dijsselbloem on future of euro zone @LSE (London)
         ECB Releases Account of December Rate Meeting
         Canada Nov New Housing Price Index
Thursday, Jan 11 NY Fed Pres Dudley keynotes at SIFMA "US Economic Outlook: What's in Store for 2018"
Fed's Bullard on US Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy  (St Louis)
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Dec. PPI--Final Demand
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions $12B Reopened 30-year Bonds
US Treasury Budget (Im) Balance
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (shrinking more quickly, now) & Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         NY Fed Pres. Dudley on US Economic Outlook
         New Zealand Nov Building Permits.
         Japan Nov Current Account Balance, Trade Balance, Bank & Trust Lending
         China Dec Trade Balance
         Singapore Q4 GDP
         ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts
         Aussie Nov Retail Sales, Credit Card Purchases/Balances 
         China New Yuan Loans & Aggregate Loans & Foreign Direct Investment
         Japan Dec Economy Watchers Current Index
         Singapore Nov Retail Sales
         German (CY17) GDP & Public Finances/GDP Ratio
         Eurozone, French, German, Italian & Spanish Dec CPI + HICP, Nov Industrial Production
         Swedish Central Bank Dpty Gov Skingsley discusses economic situation & monetary policy @Skagen Fonder's New Year Conference (Stockholm)
         India Nov Industrial Production & Manufacturing Output +Dec CPI
         Canada Teranet/National Bank Dec Home Price Index
         BoE Economist Silvana Tenreyro @ '18 Peston Lecture at Queen Mary Univ of London on "The Fall in Productivity Growth: Causes & Implications" (London)
Friday,      Jan 12 US Dec CPI
US Dec Retail Sales
US Wholesale & Retailer Inventories
China Dec Trade Balance with US
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count
(1pm et)
Fed's Rosengren Keynotes @ Global Interdependence Center (GIC) Event at which he'll receive the GIC Frederick Heldring Award for Global Leadership (San Diego CA) 
Saturday,  Jan 13 US 3-day Holiday; 01/15 Martin Luther King Jr Holiday. US Markets Closed 01/15

         WEEKS AHEAD:  
      01/22--23           BoJ MPC Meets
                                                      01/25           ECB MPC Meets
                                                      01/26           Riksbank (Swede) Meets
                                               01/30--31      FOMC Meets
                                                      02/08           BoE MPC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Revolving Voting Members: The Chairperson Jerome Powell as of 02/03/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: When Janet Yellen resigns, and Jerome Powell takes her place as chairperson, Feb. 03, 2018, that will include Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, plus New York Fed Pres., currently William Dudley, who plans on retiring in 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus veterans John Williams, who became Pres of the San Francisco Fed after Janet Yellen became Fed Chairperson, and Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester, a very vocal bear who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for a new leader. Raphael Bostic replaced Dennis Lockhart at the Atlanta Fed, when Lockhart left. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018. Hawk Mester votes in 2018..