wall street in advance

November/December 2017  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,     Nov. 26     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Japan Oct Corporate Service Price
         German Oct Retail Sales
         Chinese Oct Industrial Profits
         Swiss Q3 Employment Level
         Hong Kong Oct Trade Balance (Imports/Exports)
Monday,    Nov. 27 Oct US New Home Sales
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
US Treasury Auctions $36B 6-month Bills & $26B 2-year Notes (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-month Bills & $34B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         Fed's Kashkari Q&A @Winona State U town Hall (Winona MN 6:30pm)
         Conversation with NY Fed Pres Wm Dudley, "US Economy: 10 Years after the Crisis," (NY on behalf of UCal Berkeley 7pm et)
          UK Nov Nationwide House Price Index
          OECD Updated Economic Outlook
          South Korea Dec Manufacturing BSI Index
          German GfK Dec Consumer Confidence          
          ECB Monthly Lending & Money Supply Stats
          BoE Publishes Results of Bank Stress Tests & Financial Stability Report

Tuesday,   Nov. 28 Canada Oct Industrial Product & Raw Materials Price Indices
Senate Banking Cmte hearing on Jerome Powell as FOMC Chief
(10am et)
US Oct. International Trade Deficit

US Oct Wholesale & Retail Inventories
FHFA Sept. House Price Index
S&P CoreLogic Sept 20-City House Price Index

Fed's Dudley opens the 3rd Annual Conference on the Evolving Structure of the US Treasury Market  (NY 9:15am et) Other Speakers include: Treas. Sec'y Mnuchin, SEC Chair Clayton, CFTC Chair Giancarlo
Conference Board's Oct. Consumer Confidence
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture's Ties to the Global Economy (Keynote former Sec'y of USDA, Tom Vilsack, currently CEO US Dairy Export C0uncil) 
Bk of Canada Gov Poloz & Dpty Wilkins Press Conference
Canada Oct IPPI & RMPI
Richmond Fed Manufaturing Index
Mexican Oct Unemployment Rate
Dallas Fed Services Revenue + Texas Services Sector Nov Outlook
US Treasury Auctions $28B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Harker on "Financial Safety for the Aging Population" @ Aging, Cognition, & Financial Health: Building a Robust System for Older Americans (Philly Fed)
BoE's Ramsden speaks (London)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         Japan Oct Retail Sales
         UK BRC Nov Shop Price Index
         Swiss Oct UBS Consumption Indicator & ZEW BusinessOutlook/Expectations
         French Q3 (P) GDP & Oct Consumer Spending
         BoE Oct Consumer Credit, UK Oct Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending, M4 Money Supply
         Eurozone Nov Economic/Industrial/Business & Consumer Confidence/ Expectations
         German Nov CPI  + HICP
Wed.,        Nov. 29 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
NY Fed's Dudley "fireside chat" on "Prospects for the National & Regional Economy," w/Q&A @Rutgers Univ. (New Brunswick, NJ 8:30am et)
US Q3 (P) GDP/Household Spending/Net Exports/PCE
US Q3 Corporate Profits
FOMC Chief Yellen Semi-Annual Testimony @Joint Economic Committee (@Congress 10am chance for both houses to thank her for her service)
US Oct. Pending Home Sales
Brazil Oct Budget Balance & Debt/GDP Ratio & FX Flows
Redbook weekly Retail Sales Snapshot
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats (10:30am et--w/e 11/24)
Fed's Williams keynotes 54th Annual Economic Forecast Lunch w/Q&A, sponsored by Arizona State Univ (Phoenix 1:50pm)
Fed's Beige Book (2pm Not that it will change the expectation for Dec. Rate Hike)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
          New Zealand Oct Building Consents +RBNZ Publishes Financial Stability Report
          South Korea Oct Industrial Production & Service Sector Output
          Canada CFIB Nov Business Barometer
          Aussie HIA Oct New Home Sales, Oct Private Sector Credit, Q3 Expenditures, Oct. Building Approvals 
          China Nov. Manufacturing & non-Manufacturing PMI, Oct Swift Global Payments
          Singapore Oct Bank Lending
          BoJ's Harada speaks (Fukushima)
          Japan Oct Vehicle + Industrial Production & Forecasts, Housing Starts & Construction Orders
          UK GfK Nov Consumer Confidence, Lloyds Business Barometer & Nationwide Nov Home Price Index
          Swiss Q3 GDP + KOF Nov Leading Indicator
          German Nov Unemployment Claims/Change & Oct Retail Sales
          Spain Q3 GDP & Sept Current Account
          South Africa Oct PPI & Trade Balance
          Italy Oct Unemployment Rate & Nov CPI + HICP + Oct PPI
          Russia Central Bank FX Reserves
          India Oct Federal Fiscal Deficit
          Eurozone Oct Unemployment Rate & Nov. (adv) CPI
          OPEC & non-OPEC Oil Producers meet to discuss additional measures to boost prices, while continuing current quotas (Vienna Austria)
          ECB's Mersch speaks at Jt ECB/Banca d'Italia Conference "Digital transformation of the retail payments ecosystem" (Rome)
         ECB Bank Supervisor Hakkarainen panelist "Europe in the C-Suite: Banking on a better future for the continent" (@FT Banking Summit: "Thinking Through Uncertainty" (London)
Thursday, Nov. 30 US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Q3 Current Account Balance
US Oct Personal Income/Spending/PCE
Fed's Mester moderates panel "Financial Stability & FinTech Conference" (@Jt Fed Reserve of Cleveland/Office of Financial Research& Univ of Maryland Conference Fed Gov Powell speaks later in the day
Chicago Nov. PMI
NRF Nov. Monthly Chain Store Sales (9 still report but others may update)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
Fed's Kaplan Q&A at Real Estate Council Speaking Series (Dallas 1pm)
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Nov QV House Prices & Q3 Trade Balance
         South Korea Q3 GDP, Nov CPI, Trade Balance + Nikkei Mnftg PMI
         Aussie CBA Nov Manufacturing PMI & AiG Nov Performance of Manufacturing Index + CoreLogic Nov House Price Index, RBA Nov Commodity Index SDR
          Japan Oct Official Reserves, Jobless Rate, Household Spending, CPI, Q3 Capital Spending + Company Profits, & Nikkei Nov Manufacturing PMI  & Vehicle Sales
          Caixan Nov China Manufacturing PMI
          India Nikkei/Markit Nov Manufacturing PMI
          Russia Markit Manufacturing PMI
          Swiss Oct Retail Sales & Nov Manufacturing PMI
          Italian Q3 GDP
          Eurozone, French, German, Italian Markit Manufacturing PMI
          Brazil Q3 GDP & Nov Markit Mnftg PMI
          South Africa Nov Total Vehicle Sales
Friday,      Dec. 01 US Nov. Motor Vehicle Sales
Canada Nov Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation, & Q3 GDP + RBC Manufaturing PMI
Fed's Bullard on US Economy & Monetary Policy at the Economic Briefing (Little Rock AK 9:05 am)
US Nov Manufacturing PMI
US Nov ISM Manufacturing Index; Employment/Prices Paid/Orders/Shipments
US Oct Construction Spending
Fed's Kaplan Q&A before "Border Economic Development & Entrepreunership Symposium" (McAllen TX)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North America Rig Count (1pm et)
Saturday,  Dec.02 FOMC Vice Chair Quarles participates in "Financial Regulation" discusson before Group of 30 Winter Plenary (NY)
Sunday,     Dec. 03     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Japan Nov Monetary Base End of Period, Oct Loans & Discounts
         Aussie TD Securities Nov Inflation, ANZ Nov Job Ads, Q3 Company Operating Profit & Inventories
         BoJ's Kuroda & ECB Bd Member deGalhou speak at a seminar (Tokyo)
         Spain Unemployment Rate/Change
         Eurogroup Meets (Brussels)
         Riksbank Executive Board Meets
         UK Markit/CIPS Nov Construction PMI
         Eurozone Sentix Dec. Investor Confidence, Oct PPI
         Singapore Nov Manufacturing PMI
         Brazil Nov Trade Balance
Monday,    Dec. 04 US Oct Factory Orders
US Oct (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-,
& $36B 6-month Bills
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Q3 Voume of All Buildings
         Aussie CBA Nov. Services  & Composite PMI + AiG Nov. Performance of Service Index & Oct Retail Sales Q3 Company Profits/Gross Operating Profits
         UK BRC Nov Like for Like Sales
         South Korea Oct Current Account
         Hong Kong Nov Manufacturing PMI
         Japan Nikkei Nov Services & Composite PMI
         China Caixin Nov Services & Composite PMI
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Rate Decision & Cash Rate Target (12/05 local time)
         Japan 10-year JGB Auction & BoJ Core CPI
         India Nikkei Nov Services PMI
         Russia Markit Nov Services PMI
         Spanish Oct Industrial Production & Nov Services PMI
         Markit Nov Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Services & Composite PMI
         So. Africa Q3 GDP
         UK Nov New Car Registrations, Markit/CIPS Nov Services & Composite PMI + UK Nov Official FX Reserves/Changes
         Eurozone Oct Retail Sales, Q3 Gov't Expenditure, Household Consumption, Q3 (F) GDP
         Bundesbank Pres Weidmann & Singapore Dpty PM Shanmugaratnam speak (Frankfurt)
         Riksbank Gov Ingves opens think-tank Global Utmanings Seminar on indebtedness & the risks of a new banking crisis in Sweden
         Brazil Oct Indsutrial Production, Markit Nov Composite & Services PMI
         Canada Oct Int'l Merchandise Trade Balance
         BoE releases Record of Financial Policy Committee 11/22 Meeting
Tuesday,   Dec. 05 US Oct. Int'l Trade Deficit
US PMI Nov (F) Services Index
US ISM non-Manufacturing Nov (F) Index

US Treasury Auctions 4-week & $20B 52-week Bills (that's it for the week!)
   OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Aussie Q3 GDP
        BoJ's Masai speaks
        German Oct Factory Orders, Markit Nov Construction & Retail PMI
        Swiss Nov CPI
        India Central Bank MPC Interest Rate Decision, Reverse REPO Rate
        Eurozone, France, Italy, Nov Markit Retail PMI
        Riksbank Dpty Gov Jansson speech "The Ideaological debate on monetary policy--lessons from developments in Sweden" (Stockholm, 12/06 local time)
        EU Commission Pres Juncker to present his ideas for transforming the bailout fund ESM into a European Monetary Fund, and creating the post of a European Finance Minister (Brussels)
        ECB's Mersch speaks (Frankfurt Germany)
Wed.         Dec. 06 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Nov Private Sector Employment Report
US 17Q3 (rev)  Productivity & Costs
Brazil Nov Auto Production/Sales & FX Flows
BoC (Canada) MPC Rate Decision
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillate Stats
(10:30am et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         Brazil MPC Interest Rate Decision

         New Zealand QV Nov House Prices
         Aussie AiG Nov Performance of Construction
         China Nov FX Reserves
         UK Dec. CBI Selling Prices Trends & Total Order Trends
         Aussie Oct Trade Balance, Nov FX Reserves
         BoJ's Masai speaks to business leaders (Kobe)
         So. Africa Nov FX Reserves 
         Swiss Nov Unemployment Rate + Nov FX Reserves
         ECB Governing Council meets--no interest rate decision scheduled (Frankfurt)
         French Oct Trade Balance & Current Account
         German Oct Industrial Production
         Hong Kong Nov FX Reserves
         ECB Pres Draghi news conference on Basel banking reforms (Frankfurt)
         UK Halifax Nov House Prices
Thursday, Dec. 07 Challenger Job-Cut Report
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Oct Building Permits, & Ivey Nov PMI 
US Quarterly Services Survey
Canada Q3 Labor Productivity Q3 Capacity Utilization, Ivey Nov PMI
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (includes 3-, 10, + 30-year)
US Oct Consumer Credit (Debt, really)
Weekly Fed Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Q3 Manufacturing Activity/Volume
         Japan Q3 GDP, Business Spending, Nov Bank Lending w/ & w/out Trusts, Oct Labor Cash Earnings
         China Nov Trade Balance (Imports/Exports), Nov Foreign Direct Investment
         Aussie Oct Home Loans, Investment Lending, Value of Loans
         So Africa Oct Gold & Mining Production
         German Oct Trade Balance & Current Account
         French Gov't Oct Budget Balance & Industrial Production
         Eurozone Q3 Labor Costs & Q3 GDP
         Russia Central Bank Reserves
         Riksbank Gov Ingves on changes on the payments market @Riksbank in the cashless society" organized by Swedish House of Finance (Stockholm)
         UK Oct Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production + Construction
         Brazil Nov CPI
         UK NIESR Nov GDP, BoE/TNS Inflation next 12 Months
Friday,      Dec. 08 US Nov. Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
Canada Nov Housing Starts, Q3 Capacity Utilization
U.M. Prelim. Dec. Consumer Sentiment
US Oct. (F) Wholesale Trade (Sales + Inventories)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Saturday,  Dec. 09 China Nov CPI & PPI

         WEEKS AHEAD:  12/12   FOMC 2-day Meeting Starts
                                       12/13   FOMC Statement, SEP (Member Financial Projections)
                                                    Yellen (final?) Press Conference
                                       12/14   ECB
MPC Meets on Rates
                                                   BoE MPC Rate Decision
                                                    SNB MPC Rate Decision
                                                   Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Meets
                                      12/21    BoJ MPC Meets

*FOMC 2017 Voting Members:  Four governors on the FOMC are permanent voters: Janet Yellen, Randall Quarles, (Stanley Fischer Resigned 10/13), Lael Brainard, Jay Powell. (Dan Tarullo was the 5th.vote at evnominating one after July 4tery meeting but he resigned, too)  Board Governors still endure 3 vacancies, w/Trump concentrating his efforts on selecting the next Fed Chairperson. NY Fed Pres.Wm Dudley also a permanent FOMC voting member. The rest of the voters, in 2017, are 5 of the 11 regional Fed Pres.:New voters, for 2017: Philly Fed Pres. Patrick Harker, Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel "Too Big to Fail" Kashkari, Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan, and Chicago Fed Pres Charles Evans.  Evans was last a voter in 2015. The other 3 are voters for the first time. Loretta Mester (Cleveland), Eric Rosengren (Boston), James Bullard (St. Louis) and Esther George (Kansas City) have lost their votes in 2017. In an Oct. speech, Harker said he would have preferred if rates had been raised at the prior FOMC meeting. Kaplan was a 23-yr veteran of Goldman Sachs before winding up at Harvard Business School. Mester & George are hawks that dissented at several 2016 meetings until the 2016 rate hike announced 12/14 but aren't voters in 2017.  Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker resigned in early April 2017, when it became known he'd leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond is operating with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while the search for a new leader continues. Raphael Bostic replaced Dennis Lockhart at the Atlanta Fed, when Lockhart left.

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