wall street in advance

September/October 2017  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Sept 24 German Federal Elections (Chancellor Merkel's position at stake)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         German Aug Import Price Index
         Japan Nikkei Sept (P) Manufacturing PMI
         BoJ Bond Purchases in 3 tranches of 1--10 years
         BoJ's Kuroda speaks (Osaka)
         ECB's VP Constancio speaks (Frankfurt)
         German Sept IFO Business Climate/Expectations
         ECB's Draghi opens   ECON hearing @EU Parliament (Brussels)
         Norges Bank's Olsen speaks @50th Anniversary of Norwegian Technical Calculation Cmte for Wage Settlements via Minstry of Labor (Oslo)
         BoE's Financial Policy Statement Published
Monday,  Sept 25 Fed's Dudley on "Workforce Development" @Onondaga Com. College (Syracuse NY 8:30am)
Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
ECB's Coeure panelist (Frankfurt)
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills
Fed's Evans on current eco conditions or monetary policy w/Q&A @The Economic of Grand Rapids luncheon (Grand Rapids MI 12:40pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Aug Trade Balance, Sept Biz Confidence
         Fed's Kashkari participating in "Eye of the Hawk," a Town Hall Event (Grand Forks ND 6:30pm et)
         BoJ's Kuroda speaks w/Q&A (Osaka)
         Singapore Aug Industrial Production
         BoJ Minutes of 07/19--20 Meeting
         Japan Aug Corporate Service Price
         Acting Gov Grant rises to the role at RBNZ (New Zealand)
         German Aug Import Price Index (IPPI)
         Italian Aug Trade Balance
         UK BBA Aug Approved Loans for House Purchases
Tuesday,  Sept 26 Fed Reserve Board Conference:"Disparities in the Labor Market: What Are We Missing?" (D.C. thru 27th)
CoreLogic Case/Shiller July 20-city Home Price Index
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fed's Mester moderates "Global Outlook" panel 59th NABE: "Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals" (Cleveland OH 9:30am et)
Fed's Evans opens 17th Chicago Payments Symposium (Chicago IL 9:30am)
NAHB Aug. New Home Sales (10am et)
Conference Board's Sept Consumer Confidence
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am et)
Fed Chair Yellen keynote on "Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals"  @59th NABE (11:50am et)
New Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic on economy & monetary policy @Atlanta Press Club (Atlanta GA 12:30 pm)
US Treasury Auctions $26B 2-year Notes
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed a.m. et:
         German Aug Retail Sales
         China Aug Industrial Profits
         Swiss UBS Aug Consumption Indicator + ZEW Sept Expectations Survey
         Japan (F) Aug Machine Tool Orders
         UK Q2 GDP, Current Account, Business Investment, CBI Sept Retail Reported Sales, Total Distributors Report Sales
        Italy Jul Industrial New Orders & Sales + Sept Consumer Confidence
Wed.        Sept 27 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US (F) Aug. Durable Goods Orders/Shipments
Fed's Kashkari welcoming remarks @Tribal Community Perspectives on Higher Education (Minneapolis MN 9:15am)
Fed Gov Brainard speaks on "Labor Market Disaprities & the Mission of the Federal Reserve" @"Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers" hosted by K.C. Fed + Video "Conversation with Federal Reserve Chair Yellen"  starts 3pm (KC Fed thru 29th)
NAR Aug Pending Home Sales (10am et)
BoC's (Canada) Poloz speaks @St. John's Board of Trade +Q&A w/Press
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats
Brazil Aug Bank Lending & Fx Flows
US Treasury Auctions reopened $13B 2-year FRN (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $34B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Bullard
on eco & monetary Policy @Truman State U (Kirksville MO 1:30pm)
   OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Fed's Rosengren
@Money Marketeers of NYU (5:30pm et)
        RBNZ (New Zealand) Sept Rate Decision (09/28 local time)
        Riksbank Gov Ingveds & Dpty Floden participate in hearing on monetary policy @Riksdag Cmte on Finance (Stockholm Sweden)
        CFIB (Canada) Sept Business Barometer
        China BoP (F) Q2 Current Account Balance & Aug Swift Global Payments
        UK Sept Nationwide House Prices
        German GfK Oct Consumer & Sept Business, Industrial & Services Confidence
        German Sept CPI & HICP
        BoJ releases summary of opinions from 9/20--21 policy meeting
        Spain Sept HICP & Aug Retail Sales
        Eurozone Sept Business Surveys & Consumer Confidence
        BoE Gov Carney & RBA (Aussie) Gov Debelle
speak @BoE Conference "independence 20 years on" Keynote pre-lunch Gorden Brown, FOMC Gov Fischer 3:15pm local time. Other speakers include Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian, BoE's Kohn, IMFs Adrian  (London starts 28 local time thru 29th )
        South Africa Aug PPI
Thursday, Sept 28 US Q2 (F) GDP + PCE
US Aug Wholesale & Retail Inventories
US Aug Trade Deficit

US weekly Jobless Apps  (Hurricanes impact?)
US Q2 (F) Corporate Profits
Fed's George on The U.S. Economy & Monetary Policy @"Banking & The Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers" (K C Fed KS 9:45am)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
Russian Central Bank Reserves
KC Fed Sept Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $28B 7-year Notes
CFPB's Cordray keynotes on Industry & Consumer Protection  @Jt Philly Fed/Journal of Economics & Business Conference, "FinTech: The Impact on Consumers, Banking & Regulatory Policy" w/Q&A (1pm Philadelphia PA thru 29th)  Other speakers from ABA & Prosper Marketplace
USDA Farm Prices
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         BoJ's Kuroda speaks @Annual Meeting of Japanese Securities Companies
         South Korea Oct Manufacturing BSI INdex, Aug Industrial Production + Services Output
         New Zealand Aug Building Permits
         UK GfK Sept Consumer Confidence & Lloyds Business Barometer
         Japan Aug CPI, Jobless Rate, Household Spending, Retail Trade, Industrial Production, Loans & Discounts to Business
         Aussie Aug Private Sector Credit & Housing Credit
         China Caixan Sept Manufaturing PMI
         Japan Aug Vehicle Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders
         German Sept Unemployment Rate/Change
         UK Q2 Current Account, BoE Aug Net Consumer Credit, Lending on Dwellings, Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply, July Index of Services, Q2 Business Investment, Nationwide Home Price Index (HPI)
        South Africa Aug Private Sector Credit, Trade Balance, & M3 Money Supply
        BoE's "independence 20 years on" conference speakers today include IMF's Lagarde, Bk of Israel/Bk of Mexico/South African Reserve Bank chiefs, Citi's  Buiter, BoE's Broadbent, Harvard's Larry Summers, Mark Carney & Mario Draghi "In Conversation."
        French Aug PPI & Consumer Spending
        Spain July Current Account
        Italy Sept CPI, HICP & PPI
        India Aug Federal Fiscal Deficit & Infrastructure Output & Q2 Foreign Debt
        Eurozone Sept CPI
        Canada July GDP, + Aug Raw Materials & Industrial Product Prices
Friday,     Sept. 29 US Aug Personal Income & Expenditures +PCE
Canada July GDP, Aug IPPI, RMPI
Chicago Sept PMI
Brazil Aug Budget Balance (Debt/Surplus) & Debt/GDP Ratio
U.M. Sept (F) Consumer Sentiment
Fed's Harker on "Economic Outlook, Financial Technology" @Jt Philly Fed/Journal of Economics & Business Conference, "FinTech, etc" w/Q&A (11am) Other speakers from PayPal, Lending Club, The Clearing House, IBM
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:

         China Sept Official Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI
Saturday, Sept. 30 China Caixin Sept Manufacturing PMI
South Korea Sept Trade Balance (Imports/Exports)
Sunday,    Oct. 01 US Federal Government Fiscal Year Begins
Chinese/HK Golden Week Holiday Starts with National Day today  (thru 8th)

China Requires Real Names on ALL Internet Accounts or Posts
Catalonians Votes on Seceding from Spain (Rajoy says it's illegal vote)
Gas Stations Exempt, for another 3 years, from required Chip Enabled Card Readers
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie Sept Mnftg PMI, CoreLogic Sept House Price Index
         So Korea Sept CPI & Aug Current Account+Nikkei Sept Mnftg PMI
        Japan Q3 Tankan + Sept Official Reserve Assets, Nikkei Sept PMI, Sept Vehicle Sales
         So. Africa Sept Total Vehicle Sales
         Russia Markit Sept Mnftg PMI
         Norges Bank Conference "Big Data, Machine Learning & the Macroeconomy" to (10/03 local time)
         Swiss Aug Retail Sales & SVME Sept PMI
         Markit Eurozone, French, German, Italian, Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Italian Aug Unemployment Rate
         Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate
         Brazil Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Singapore Sept Manufacturing PMI   
Monday,  Oct. 02 US Sept Manufacturing PMI
Canada Sept RBC Manufacturing PMI
US Sept Manufacturing ISM, Prices Paid, New Orders & Employment
US Aug. Construction Spending
US Supreme Court Back in Session
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (That's it for Week!)
Brazil Sept Trade Balance
Fed's Kaplan in Q&A @ "Dialogue with the Fed Luncheon" (El Paso TX 2pm )
Holiday in India
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. am. et:
         Aussie Aug HIA New Home sales & ANZ Sept Job Ads, Aug Building Approvals, Sept Commodity Index
         RBA (Aussie) MPC post-Meeting Rate Decision (10/03 local time)
         India Nikkei Markit Sept Mnftg PMI
         BoJ Core CPI & Sept Household Confidence
         Spanish Unemployment Change
         Italian Q2 Public Debt
         UK Markit/CIPS Sept Construction PMI
         Hong Kong Aug Retail Sales
         Riksbank Gov Ingves speaks on development of economy & current monetary policy at lunch arranges by W. Sweden Chamber of Commerce (Gothenburg Swdn)
         Brazil Aug Industrial Production
         Eurozone Aug PPI
         Joseph Stiglitz best-known speaker @BoE "Workshop on Growth, Stagnation & Inequality" (London thru 4th)
Tuesday,  Oct. 03 US Sept Motor Vehicle Sales (perhaps hurt by Harvey & Irma until Oct)
Fed Gov Powell on Regulatory Reform at Reuters "Conversation on U.S. FInancial Regulation" w/Q&A (Washington D.C. 8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
BoC Gov Leduc speaks at Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce (Quebec)
German Unification Day Holiday
South Korea Full Moon Festival Holiday
   OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Sept QV House Prices & ANZ Job Ads & Commdity Prices
        Aussie CBA Sept PMI, AiG Performance of Services Index
        UK BRC Sept Shop Price Index
        Russia Sept Markit Services PMI
        South Africa Standard Bank Sept PMI
        Japan Nikkei Sept Services & Composite PMI
        Eurozone, Markit French, Italian, German Sept Services & Composite PMI
        India Central Bank Interest & Reserve Rate Decisions
        UK Markit/CIPS Sept Services & Composite PMI
        UK Sept Official Fx Reserves
        Eurozone Aug Retail Sales
Wed.,       Oct. 04 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
ADP Sept Private Sector Employment Report
US Sept Services PMI
US non-Manufacturing ISM Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats (w/e 09/29)
Sohn Investment Conference (San Francisco CA)
Brazil Markit Sept Services & Composite PMI, FX Flows 
Fed's Bullard welcome remarks at Community Banking in 21st Century Conference (St Louis 3pm)
Fed Chair Yellen opens Community Banking in the 21st Century Conf (3:15pm et)
South Korea continues Full Moon Festival  Holiday (thru end of week)
   OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie Aug Trade Balance & Retail Sales
        RBA's Debelle panelist (Melbourne)
        India Nikkei Sept Services PMI
        Swiss Sept CPI
        German Markit Sept Construction PMI
        UK Sept New Car Registrations
        Markit Eurozone, French, German, Italian Sept Retail PMI
        UK Qtr Housing Equity Withdrawal
Thursday, Oct 05 US Sept. Chain Store Sales (hurricane hit apparel & shoes, benefited bldg products)
Challenger Sept Job-Cut Report
ECB releases account of monetary policy meeting
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Aug. International Trade Deficit
Canada Aug Int'l Trade Balance
Russia Central Bank Reserves
Fed Gov Powell on Treasury Markets @TMPG Best Practices: A Look Back and a Look Ahead w/Q&A (NY: TMPG Treasury Markets Practices Group, the 13th Central Bank Conference on Microstructure of Financial Marketss @BoE (London thru 6th)
Fed's Williams morning keynote @Community Banking the 21st Century Research & policy Conference @Federal Reserve Bk of St Louis  (9:15am et)
Fed's Harker at "Investing in America's Workforce Capstone Conference" w/Q&A (Austin TX 9:30am)
US Aug. Factory Orders (10am et)
US Aug (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments 
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Oct. Refunding Announcement (1st month of new Fiscal year)
Fed's George speaks @America's Workforce Capstone Conference (Austin 4:30pm)
Fed's Weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Construction Index
         Japan Aug Labor/Real Cash Earnings+Overtime, & Sept Fx Reserves
         German Aug Factory Orders
         South Africa Sept Fx Reserves
         French Aug Current Account & Government Budget Balance
         Spain Aug Industrial Production
         Italian Aug Retail Sales
         Brazil Sept CPI
         Swiss Sept Fx Reserves
         UK Halifax plc Sept/Q3 House Prices + Q2 Unit Labor Costs
Friday,     Oct. 06 US Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
Canada Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
Fed's Bostic speaks @America's Workforce Capstone Conference (9:15am)
US Aug. Wholesale Trade/Inventories 
Canada Ivey Sept PMI, Aug Bulding Permits
Fed's Dudley on Monetary Policy & Outlook +Import of Higher Education for Economic Mobility @Council for Education Event w/Q&A (NY 12:15pm)
Fed's Kaplan @Investing in America's Workforce Capstone Conf. (12:45pm)
Baker-Hughes US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed'sBullard on "Standard of Living Across US Metropolitan Statistical Areas" @Bi-State Development Annual Luncheon (St Louis 1:50pm)
Brazil Sept Vehicle Production/Sales
US Aug Consumer Credit (debt, really; Texas should show pre- hurricane related spike in spending on cards)
Saturday, Oct. 07 Fed's Rosengren delivers Wm S Vickrey Distinguished Address @84th Int'l Atlantic Economic Conference sponsored by Int'l Atlantic Economic Society (Montreal Canada 11:45am)
China Sept Fx Reserves

         WEEKS AHEAD:  10/
09     RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                            10/11     FOMC Publishes Minutes of the 09/19--20 meeting
                                            10/25     BoC (Canada) MPC Meets
                                            10/26     Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Meets
                                            10/31     BoJ (Japan) MPC Meets
                                10/31--11/01     FOMC Meets (one month into balance sheet unwind)

*FOMC 2017 Voting Members:  Four governors on the FOMC are permanent voters: Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, Lael Brainard, Jay Powell. Dan Tarullo was the 5th.vote at every meeting but he retired from the Board. (Board Governors now endure 3 vacancies, w/Trump nominating one after July 4th). NY Fed Pres.Wm Dudley also a permanent FOMC voting member. The rest of the voters, in 2017, are 5 of the 11 regional Fed Pres.:New voters, for 2017: Philly Fed Pres. Patrick Harker, Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel "Too Big to Fail" Kashkari, Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan, and Chicago Fed Pres Charles Evans.  Evans was last a voter in 2015. The other 3 are voters for the first time. Loretta Mester (Cleveland), Eric Rosengren (Boston), James Bullard (St. Louis) and Esther George (Kansas City) have lost their votes in 2017. In an Oct. speech, Harker said he would have preferred if rates had been raised at the prior FOMC meeting. Kaplan was a 23-yr veteran of Goldman Sachs before winding up at Harvard Business School. Mester & George are hawks that dissented at several 2016 meetings until the 2016 rate hike announced 12/14 but aren't voters in 2017.  Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker resigned in early April 2017, when it became known he'd leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond is operating with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while the search for a new leader continues. Raphael Bostic replaced Dennis Lockhart at the Atlanta Fed, when Lockhart left.

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