wall street in advance

December 2017--January 2018   Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,     Dec. 24 Final Retail Store Push for Christmas Sales --too late to order online and get guaranteed Christmas Delivery
German Nov Import Price Index
Monday,   Dec. 25 Christmas Day, Markets Closed: US, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Italy, Spain,  France, UK, India, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Singapore
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         Japan Nov Jobless Rate, Nov Householde Spending, CPI, Corporate Service Prices
         BoJ Minutes of Oct 30--31 Meeting
         BoJ Gov Kuroda speaks (Keidanren Business Lobby)
Tuesday,   Dec. 26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills    (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $26B 2-year Notes + $50B 4-week Bills
STILL ON HOLIDAY? Australia, HK, NZ, France, Germany, Spain, Canada, Switzerland, So Africa, Italy, UK
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         Chinese Nov Industrial Profits

         Singapore Nov Industrial Production
         Japan Nov Housing Starts & Construction Orders
         Swiss UBS Nov Consumption Indicator & Credit Suisse ZEW Dec Survey of Expectations
         Spain Nov Retail Sales
         UK BBA Nov Loans for House Purchases
         Brazil Nov Budget Balance & Deft/GDP Ratio
Wed.,        Dec. 27 MBA weekly Mortgage Refinance Applications
S&P Case-Shiller Oct. 20-city Home Price Index
Conference Board's Dec Consumer Confidence
NAR Nov Pending Home Sales
Brazil FX Flows
US Treasury Auctions $13B 2-year reopened Floating Rate Notes (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $34B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs a.m. et:
         South Korea Jan Manufacturing BSI & Nov Industrial Production & Service Output
         BoJ Summary of Opinions at 10/30--31 Meeting, Nov Retail Trade, Industrial Production (P), + Nov Vehicle Production
         China Peoples' Bank Q3 (F) Current Account Balance
         UK Dec Nationwide House Price Index
         China Nov Swift Global Payments
         Russia Markit Dec PMI & Central Bank FX Reserves
         Hong Kong Nov Exports/Imports
         South Africa Nov Trade Balance
         Eurozone Economic Bulletin
         Canada CFIB Dec Business Barometer
Thursday, Dec. 28 US Nov Int'l Trade Deficit
US Nov Wholesale & Retail Inventories

US weekly Jobless Claims
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et thru 12/22)
EIA weekly Crude/Gasoline/Distillates Report
US Treasury Auctions $28B 7-year Notes
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
US weekly Fed balance Sheet & US Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         South Korea Dec CPI
         UK GfK Dec Consumer Confidence
         Aussie Nov Private Sector & Housing Credit
         Singapore Nov Bank Lending
         Eurozone M3 Nov Money Supply
         Russia Dec Markit Services PMI
         Spain Dec CPI & HICP + Oct. Current Account
         Italian Nov PPI
         Eurozone Private Sector Loans
         India Nov Federal Fiscal Deficit, Infrastructure Nov Output
         German Dec (P) CPI & HICP
Friday,      Dec. 29 Chicago Dec PMI
Baker-Huges US/North American weekly Rig Count (1pm et)
Holidays in Brazil (Closed) & UK (Early Close)
Treasuries & other SIFMA controlled markets close 2pm et
US Equities Trade all Day to 4pm et
Saturday,  Dec.30 China (Official) Dec Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI
Sunday,     Dec. 31
Monday,    Jan. 01 Richmond Fed's New Pres, Thomas Barkin, Assumes the Role
Happy New Year! Global Markets Closed
G-7 Presidency shifts to Canada
   OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Dec Performance of Manufacturing Index +CoreLogic House Price Index + Dec RBA Commodity Index
         German Nov Retail Sales
         China Caixin Dec Manufacturing PMI
         Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, & UK Dec Manufaturing PMI
         Canada RBC Dec Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday,   Jan. 02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills + $20B 52-week Bills + $50B 4-week Bills   (Starts 11:30am et)
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Run-off Doubles to $12B in Treasuries & $8B in Agency MBS through 18Q1
Japan, Russia, Switzerland among those still celebrating New Year
   OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Swiss Dec Manufacturing PMI
        UK Markit/CIPS Dec Construction PMI
Wed.         Jan. 03 US Dec. 2017 Motor Vehicle Sales
MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (covering slowest week of the year)
US ISM Dec. Manufacturing Index
US Nov Construction Spending
FOMC Minutes
of the Meeting Concluded on 12/13/17  (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         Aussie CBA + AiG Australia Dec Services PMI
         China Caixin Dec Services & Composite PMI
         UK Dec Nationwide House Prices
         Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Dec. (F) Services PMI

         UK Official Dec FX Reserves, Nov Consumer Credit + Loans for Dwellings, Nov Mortgage Approvals +M4 Nov Money Supply
         UK Markit/CIPS Dec Services & Composite PMI
Thursday, Jan. 04 US Dec Chain Store Sales (7 still report but those with upside surprises could, too)
Challenger Dec. Job-Cut Report
ADP Dec Private Company Employment Report
Weekly US Jobless Claims
Canada Nov Industrial Products & Raw Materials Price Indices
US PMI Dec Services Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e/12/29 @10:30am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (11am weather could have slowed builds)
US Refunding Announcement includes 30 & 10-yr Notes +30-yr Bonds 11am)
Fed's Bullard "US Economy & Monetary Policy" @Meltzer's Contributions to Monetary Economics & Public Policy w/Q&A (Philadelphia 1:30pm et)
Fed's weekly Balance Sheet & Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan Dec Monetary Base
         UK BRC Dec. Shop Price Index
         Aussie Nov Trade Balance
         Japan Nikkei Dec Services & Composite PMI + Vehicle Sales
         Swiss Dec FX Reserves
         UK Dec New Car Registrations & Q3 Unit Labor costs
         Markit Eurozone, France, German & Italian Dec Retail PMI          
         Eurozone Nov PPI
         Canada Nov Int'l Merchandise Trade, Dec Unemployment Rate/Participation
Friday,     Jan. 05 US Dec. Unemployment Report/Change/Participation, + Avg Hrly Earnings
US Nov Int'l Trade Deficit
US Dec Factory Orders
US ISM Dec Services Index
US Nov (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments 
Fed's Harker on Economic Outlook w/Q&A @ASSA Annual Mtg @AEA--American Economic Association Annual Meeting   (Philadelphia thru 7th 10:15am)
Fed's Mester panelist on "Coordinating Conventional & Unconventional Monetary Policies for Macroeconomic Stability" @Allied Social Sciences Ass'n Annual (12:30pm et) Fed's Rosengren panelist @ASSA/AEA Annual Conference; Martin Feldstein & Jeremy Stein also speakers
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Saturday,  Jan 06 Fed's Mester on "Integrating Financial Stability with Monetary Policy" @Allied Social Sciences Ass'n Annual Meeting   (Philadelphia 10:15am et) BoE's Haldane,  OECD's Mann, Brookings Institution's Ben Bernanke, Yale's Robert Shiller, Peterson Institute's Olivier Blanchard, and reps from World Bank, IMF, & more, also speak @AEA (thru 01/07)

         WEEKS AHEAD:  
   01/07/2018        Fed's Williams @ASSA.AEA Annual Mtg on "What to Expect form the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices"
                                                     01/08            Fed's Williams on "Should the Fed Stick with the 2% Inflation Target or Rethink It?" @Brookings Institution "The Options: Keep It, Tweak It, or Replace It?" followed by Fed's Rosengren at same event, on "Next Steps: Learning from the Bank of Canada" (D.C.)
                                               01/22--23            BoJ MPC Meets
                                                      01/25           ECB MPC Meets
                                                      01/26           Riksbank (Swede) Meets
                                               01/30--31      FOMC Meets
                                                      02/08           BoE MPC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Revolving Voting Members: The Chairperson Jerome Powell as of 02/03/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: When Janet Yellen resigns, and Jerome Powell takes her place as chairperson, Feb. 03, 2018, that will include Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, plus New York Fed Pres., currently William Dudley, who plans on retiring in 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus veterans John Williams, who became Pres of the San Francisco Fed after Janet Yellen became Fed Chairperson, and Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester, a very vocal bear who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for a new leader. Raphael Bostic replaced Dennis Lockhart at the Atlanta Fed, when Lockhart left. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018. Hawk Mester votes in 2018..