wall street in advance

October 2017  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Oct. 01 US Federal Government Fiscal Year Begins
Chinese/HK Golden Week Holiday Starts with National Day today  (thru 8th)

China Requires Real Names on ALL Internet Accounts or Posts
Catalonians Votes on Seceding from Spain (Rajoy says it's illegal vote)
Gas Stations Exempt, for another 3 years, from required Chip Enabled Card Readers
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie Sept Mnftg PMI, CoreLogic Sept House Price Index
         So Korea Sept CPI & Aug Current Account+Nikkei Sept Mnftg PMI
        Japan Q3 Tankan + Sept Official Reserve Assets, Nikkei Sept PMI, Sept Vehicle Sales
         So. Africa Sept Total Vehicle Sales
         Russia Markit Sept Mnftg PMI
         Norges Bank Conference "Big Data, Machine Learning & the Macroeconomy" to (10/03 local time)
         Swiss Aug Retail Sales & SVME Sept PMI
         Markit Eurozone, French, German, Italian, Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Italian Aug Unemployment Rate
         Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate
         Brazil Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI
         Singapore Sept Manufacturing PMI   
Monday,  Oct. 02 US Sept Manufacturing PMI
Canada Sept RBC Manufacturing PMI
US Sept Manufacturing ISM, Prices Paid, New Orders & Employment
US Aug. Construction Spending
US Supreme Court Back in Session
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (That's it for Week!)
Brazil Sept Trade Balance
Fed's Kaplan in Q&A @ "Dialogue with the Fed Luncheon" (El Paso TX 2pm )
Holiday in India
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. am. et:
         Aussie Aug HIA New Home sales & ANZ Sept Job Ads, Aug Building Approvals, Sept Commodity Index
         RBA (Aussie) MPC post-Meeting Rate Decision (10/03 local time)
         India Nikkei Markit Sept Mnftg PMI
         BoJ Core CPI & Sept Household Confidence
         Spanish Unemployment Change
         Italian Q2 Public Debt
         UK Markit/CIPS Sept Construction PMI
         Hong Kong Aug Retail Sales
         Riksbank Gov Ingves speaks on development of economy & current monetary policy at lunch arranges by W. Sweden Chamber of Commerce (Gothenburg Swdn)
         Brazil Aug Industrial Production
         Eurozone Aug PPI
         Joseph Stiglitz best-known speaker @BoE "Workshop on Growth, Stagnation & Inequality" (London thru 4th)
Tuesday,  Oct. 03 US Sept Motor Vehicle Sales (perhaps hurt by Harvey & Irma until Oct)
Fed Gov Powell on Regulatory Reform at Reuters "Conversation on U.S. FInancial Regulation" w/Q&A (Washington D.C. 8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
BoC Gov Leduc speaks at Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce (Quebec)
German Unification Day Holiday
South Korea Full Moon Festival Holiday
   OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Sept QV House Prices & ANZ Job Ads & Commdity Prices
        Aussie CBA Sept PMI, AiG Performance of Services Index
        UK BRC Sept Shop Price Index
        Russia Sept Markit Services PMI
        South Africa Standard Bank Sept PMI
        Japan Nikkei Sept Services & Composite PMI
        Eurozone, Markit French, Italian, German Sept Services & Composite PMI
        India Central Bank Interest & Reserve Rate Decisions
        UK Markit/CIPS Sept Services & Composite PMI
        UK Sept Official Fx Reserves
        Eurozone Aug Retail Sales
Wed.,       Oct. 04 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
ADP Sept Private Sector Employment Report
US Sept Services PMI
US non-Manufacturing ISM Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats (w/e 09/29)
Sohn Investment Conference (San Francisco CA)
Brazil Markit Sept Services & Composite PMI, FX Flows 
Fed's Bullard welcome remarks at Community Banking in 21st Century Conference (St Louis 3pm)
Fed Chair Yellen opens Community Banking in the 21st Century Conf (3:15pm et)
South Korea continues Full Moon Festival  Holiday (thru end of week)
   OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie Aug Trade Balance & Retail Sales
        RBA's Debelle panelist (Melbourne)
        India Nikkei Sept Services PMI
        Swiss Sept CPI
        German Markit Sept Construction PMI
        UK Sept New Car Registrations
        Markit Eurozone, French, German, Italian Sept Retail PMI
        UK Qtr Housing Equity Withdrawal
Thursday, Oct 05 US Sept. Chain Store Sales (hurricane hit apparel & shoes, benefited bldg products)
Challenger Sept Job-Cut Report
ECB releases account of monetary policy meeting
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Aug. International Trade Deficit
Canada Aug Int'l Trade Balance
Russia Central Bank Reserves
Fed Gov Powell on Treasury Markets @TMPG Best Practices: A Look Back and a Look Ahead w/Q&A (NY: TMPG Treasury Markets Practices Group, the 13th Central Bank Conference on Microstructure of Financial Marketss @BoE (London thru 6th)
Fed's Williams morning keynote @Community Banking the 21st Century Research & policy Conference @Federal Reserve Bk of St Louis  (9:15am et)
Fed's Harker at "Investing in America's Workforce Capstone Conference" w/Q&A (Austin TX 9:30am)
US Aug. Factory Orders (10am et)
US Aug (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments 
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Oct. Refunding Announcement (1st month of new Fiscal year)
Fed's George speaks @America's Workforce Capstone Conference (Austin 4:30pm)
Fed's Weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Construction Index
         Japan Aug Labor/Real Cash Earnings+Overtime, & Sept Fx Reserves
         German Aug Factory Orders
         South Africa Sept Fx Reserves
         French Aug Current Account & Government Budget Balance
         Spain Aug Industrial Production
         Italian Aug Retail Sales
         Brazil Sept CPI
         Swiss Sept Fx Reserves
         UK Halifax plc Sept/Q3 House Prices + Q2 Unit Labor Costs
Friday,     Oct. 06 US Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
Canada Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
Fed's Bostic speaks @America's Workforce Capstone Conference (9:15am)
US Aug. Wholesale Trade/Inventories 
Canada Ivey Sept PMI, Aug Bulding Permits
Fed's Dudley on Monetary Policy & Outlook +Import of Higher Education for Economic Mobility @Council for Education Event w/Q&A (NY 12:15pm)
Fed's Kaplan @Investing in America's Workforce Capstone Conf. (12:45pm)
Baker-Hughes US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed'sBullard on "Standard of Living Across US Metropolitan Statistical Areas" @Bi-State Development Annual Luncheon (St Louis 1:50pm)
Brazil Sept Vehicle Production/Sales
US Aug Consumer Credit (debt, really; Texas should show pre- hurricane related spike in spending on cards)
Saturday, Oct. 07 Fed's Rosengren delivers William S. Vickrey Distinguished Address @84th Int'l Atlantic Economic Conference sponsored by Int'l Atlantic Economic Society (Montreal Canada 11:45am)
China Sept Fx Reserves
Sunday,    Oct 08     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         New Zealand REINZ House Sales
         China Sept FX Reserves & Foreign Direct Investment
         RBA's (Aussie) Debell video speech to Hong Kong conference
         China Caixan Sept Services & Composite PMI
         Aussie Sept FX Reserves
         German Aug Industrial Production
         Hong Kong Sept FX reserves
         Eurozone Sentix Oct Investor Confidence
Monday,  Oct 09 US Treasuries & banks, only, closed for US Columbus Day Holiday
Canada Thanksgiving Day, Japan & South Korea holidays, too
Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
IMF/World Bank Group Joint Meeting (D.C. thru 15th)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm Canadian so is not observing US Columbus Day)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Sept Electronic Card Retail Sales
         UK BRC Sept Like for Like Sales
         Japan Aug Balance of Trade
         Swiss Q3 Real Estate Index of Family Homes + Sept Unemployment Rate
         China Sept Aggregate Financing, New Yuan Loans, Money Supply
         Aussie NAB Sept Business Conditions/Confidence
         German Aug Trade Balance
         French & Italian Aug Industrial Production
         UK Aug Industrial, Manufacturing, & Construction Output, Aug Trade Balance
         South Africa Aug Manufacturing Production
Tuesday,  Oct 10 NFIB Oct. Small Business Optimism Index
Redbook weekly Store Sales Snapshot
G20 Meeting of Central Bank Heads & Finance Ministers, concurrent with IMF/World Bank Group Joint Fall Meeting (D.C.)
Grant's Interest Rate Observer Fall Conference (NY)
Bk of Canada Dpty Gov Wilkins panelist at IMF (D.C.)
Fed's Kashkari speaks on Regional Economic Conditions (Minneapolis 10am)
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Canada Sept Housing Starts & Aug Building Permits
US Treasury Auctions $35B 4-wk & $20B 52-week Bills (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         Fed's Kaplan
participates in moderated Q&A @Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Associates Meeting (Stanford 8pm)
        Japan Aug Machine Orders & Sept Machine Tool Orders
        SNB presents new Swiss 10 franc note
        Spain Sept CPI & HICP
        French Q3 Non-Farm Payrolls
        Fed's Evans on current eco conditions & monetary policy w/Q&A @Bloomberg's 2nd Annual Swiss Day (Zurich Switzherland 7:15am)
Wed.        Oct 11 FOMC Publishes Minutes of the 09/19--20 meeting (2pm et)
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Fed's JOLTS (Job Turnover & Quits 10am et)
IMF Mng Dir Lagarde speaks at IIF Annual Meeting (10am)
Former US Treas Sec'y Lew & chief NY Fed trader Simon Potter (the latter on "Unintended Consequences on the Way out-American Exit Strategies") speak at SUERF
Brazil Aug Retail Sales & FX Flows
EIA weekly Petroleum Stats delayed to 12th
US Treasury Auctions $24B 3-year Notes (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $12B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
ECB's Praet speaks in NY
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
New Zealand Sept Food Prices
          UK RICS Sept House Price Balance
          Japan Sept PPI, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index,
Bank Lending
          Aussie Oct Inflation Expectations, Aug Home Loans & Investment Lending, Credit Card Purchases & Card Balances
         French Sept CPI & HICP
         South Africa Aug Mining & Gold Production
         India Aug Cumulative Industrial Production, Manufcturing Ouput, Sept CPI
         Singapore Aug Retail Sales
         BoE Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys
         Eurozone Aug Industrial Production
         G20 Central Bank & Finance Ministry Deputies meet (Hamburg DE thru 13th)
Thursday, Oct 12 US weekly Jobless Claims
US Sept PPI--Final Demand
Canada Aug New Housing Price Index, Teranet/National Bank Sept HPI
SEC Investment Advisory Committee Meeting
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
IMF's Lagarde & World Bank's Kim G20 Press Conference @IMF/WBG Jt Mtg
Fed Gov Powell keynotes Emerging Markets @IIF Annual Membership Mtg (D.C. 10:30am et)
ECB's Draghi, Fed Gov Brainard panelists at 4th "Rethinking Macro Policy" @IMF, hosted by Peterson Institute; Bernanke presents paper, another by ECB's Haldane, Coeure, & Jeremy Stein panelists (8am to 3:45pm Washington DC)
ECB's Praet speaks at JPMorgan Investor Seminar (10:30am D.C.)     
Russia FX Reserves & Aug Trade Balance
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats (11am et)
UBS' Weber, + ECB's Lautenschlager speak at  IIF
US Treasury Auctions $12B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
Treasury Monthly Budget (2pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Fed's Bostic
on "Balance Sheet Normalization in the U.S." at conference on "Unconventional Monetary Policy:Lessons Learned" w/Q&A (Hong Kong 9:15pm)
         China Sept Trade Balance (Imports/Exports)
         Singapore Q3 GDP
         German Sept Wholesale Price Index, CPI, HICP
         Italian Sept CPI & HICP
         Swiss Sept Producer & Import Prices
Friday,     Oct 13 US Sept CPI
US Sept (Adv) Retail Sales
Fed Gov. Stanley Fischer (voluntarily) leaves the Fed

US Treas Sec'y Mnuchin in conversation with IIF Pres/CEO (8:30am et), Jamie Dimon (CEO JPM), Laurence Fink (CEO BLK), James Gorman (MS CEO) lunch speakers on "View from the C-Suite: US"   (12:30pm et)
ECB's Draghi & Mersch participate at IMF/World Bank Group Meeting, "Shaping the Europe of the Future" (D.C.)
Peterson Institute "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy" includes paper by Jason Furman, discussant Carmen Reinhart, moderated by Olivier Blanchard (D.C.)
Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) at Northeastern University (Boston MA thru 15th)
Fed's Rosengren opens Boston Fed's 61st Economic Conference "Are Rules Made to be Broken? Discretion & Monetary Policy" (8:30am et) John Taylor & Donald Kohn (9am), Fed Gov Powell Keynotes (1pm et Boston)
US Aug Business Inventories
U.M. (P) Oct. Consumer Sentiment
Fed's Evans participant in 7th Annual Wisconsin Summit on Financial Literacy w/Q&A  (10:25am Green Bay WI)
Fed's Kaplan participates in Q&A at 2017 CFA Institute's Fixed Income Management Conference (Boston 11:30am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Saturday, Oct 14 Lawrence H Summers (Harvard) breakfast "conversation" with IIF Pres/CEO (7:45am et)
Frederic S Mishkin Boston Fed Conf "Improving the Use of Discretion in Monetary Policy" (10:45am et)

         WEEKS AHEAD:  10/
15  Fed's Yellen, PBoC's Zhou, BoJ's Kuroda, ECB's Constancio, RBI's Patel, Bundesbank's Weidmann, Agustin Carstens (Gov. Banco de Mexico) & Jin Liqun, Pres of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank all speakers at32nd G30 Int'l Banking Seminar to coincide with the IMF/World Bank Grp Fall Mtg (D.C.)
                                            10/18      Federal Reserve's Beige Book released
                                            10/25     BoC (Canada) MPC Meets
                                            10/26     ECB MPC Meets
                                                          Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
                                            10/31     BoJ (Japan) MPC Meets
                                10/31--11/01     FOMC Meets (one month into balance sheet unwind)

*FOMC 2017 Voting Members:  Four governors on the FOMC are permanent voters: Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, Lael Brainard, Jay Powell. Dan Tarullo was the 5th.vote at every meeting but he retired from the Board. (Board Governors now endure 3 vacancies, w/Trump nominating one after July 4th). NY Fed Pres.Wm Dudley also a permanent FOMC voting member. The rest of the voters, in 2017, are 5 of the 11 regional Fed Pres.:New voters, for 2017: Philly Fed Pres. Patrick Harker, Minneapolis Fed Pres Neel "Too Big to Fail" Kashkari, Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan, and Chicago Fed Pres Charles Evans.  Evans was last a voter in 2015. The other 3 are voters for the first time. Loretta Mester (Cleveland), Eric Rosengren (Boston), James Bullard (St. Louis) and Esther George (Kansas City) have lost their votes in 2017. In an Oct. speech, Harker said he would have preferred if rates had been raised at the prior FOMC meeting. Kaplan was a 23-yr veteran of Goldman Sachs before winding up at Harvard Business School. Mester & George are hawks that dissented at several 2016 meetings until the 2016 rate hike announced 12/14 but aren't voters in 2017.  Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker resigned in early April 2017, when it became known he'd leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond is operating with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while the search for a new leader continues. Raphael Bostic replaced Dennis Lockhart at the Atlanta Fed, when Lockhart left.

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